Some Context in the Royals Roster Decisions

We pretty much know who makes the Opening Day roster, so let's break it down a little.

When pitchers and catchers reported to Surprise about six weeks ago, there were a handful of roster spots up for grabs. Some that maybe weren’t up for grabs at the start became interesting stories. And here we are, with Opening Day just three days away and the Royals have set their roster. They haven’t made that roster official yet and Michael Wacha was hit in the finger by a comebacker in an intrasquad game yesterday, so maybe there’s a change to come, but it sure seems like we know who is going to make up the 26 who are the first Royals roster of the 2024 season.

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I say it that way because of something I’ve tried to beat over everyone’s heads, but I’ll say it again. The roster you see on Thursday holds importance, but no more than the roster you’ll see in the middle of May or the end of June or any other day during the season. It’s just a snapshot of the season, just like any of those days are. We put added importance on this roster, but the reality is that it isn’t any different than any other roster throughout the season. I guess there is something to the fact that winning a spot probably buys a player a few extra days, so maybe it’s not exactly the same, but I do think we maybe put a bit too much of a premium on the Opening Day roster (says the guy who writes multiple Opening Day roster projections).

Anyway, here’s what the roster looks like (again, not official, with players listed in alphabetical order by role):

Catchers

Freddy Fermin
Salvador Perez

Infielders

Adam Frazier
Maikel Garcia
Garrett Hampson
Nick Loftin
Vinnie Pasquantino
Bobby Witt Jr.

Outfielders

Dairon Blanco
Kyle Isbel
MJ Melendez
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velazquez

Starting Pitchers

Seth Lugo
Alec Marsh
Cole Ragans
Brady Singer
Michael Wacha

Relievers

Nick Anderson
Jordan Lyles
James McArthur
Matt Sauer
John Schreiber
Will Smith
Chris Stratton
Angel Zerpa

I feel pretty good about my roster projection from last week. One of the discrepancies is injury-related. I’ll get to that soon. And the other one, well, I whiffed on that, but I think the decision was tougher than the Royals ever expected it would be. I’ll get to that one too. I’m not sure that too many springs turned non-locks into locks. Coming into camp, four starters were guaranteed and five relievers were with one more (Sauer) needing to have a bad spring to lose. On the position player side, both catchers, five of six infielders and four of five outfielders were pretty much guaranteed their roster spot. Now, one (Velazquez) came close to losing it, but he ended up winning the spot anyway. I’ll get to him. Let’s get into what some of these decisions mean for the team in 2024.

Alec Marsh Wins the Fifth Starter Job Over Jordan Lyles

Daniel Lynch IV Goes to AAA

I think this is the one that has the biggest impact, so I’m going to start here. I don’t think anyone is pouring one out for Lyles losing his spot in the rotation, but I also continue to be surprised with how willing the Royals were for him to lose the job. His lack of innings in spring helped, sure, but I’ve written many times before how adamant people have been in telling me that the competition for that fifth starter job was real. This is my speculation, but I believe the Royals internally thought the winner of that competition would be either Daniel Lynch IV or Lyles.

But over the course of the spring, Marsh showed that he had made the improvements the Royals were looking for him to make. I wrote over the last couple of weeks about the changes in his pitch mix as he went into more of a bulk role in September. This spring, he continued that while simply throwing more strikes. Ironically, he had a bit of a rough outing after learning he had made the rotation, but prior to that, he struck out 17 and walked four in 14 spring innings. With Marsh, I think you’d be making a big mistake to expect him to take become the second or third-best pitcher on the team this season, but aside from pure stuff, what makes him so much more interesting than Lyles is that it’s certainly possible.

With Lyles, the upside is something like his 2022 season that landed him the two-year deal the Royals probably regret today. At best, they could dream of an ERA in the mid-4s with an xERA closer to 5.00. That’s the reality of who he is. He’s going to give you six innings per start if the manager allows him and he’s probably going to give up a few runs over that time. There is value in that when nobody else in the rotation can give innings, but when four others can reasonably be counted on to get 16-18 outs every night, upside is the play and Marsh has legitimate upside.

I also don’t hate Lyles in the bullpen. I’ll get to a couple other guys who can give the Royals three or four innings at a time in a minute, but having someone like Lyles can really help the bullpen. And I also believe that there is a chance his stuff can play up in slightly shorter stints. The Royals seem convinced that he can pitch on back-to-back days and Lyles has had some success as a reliever in the past. It’s been awhile, but simplifying the repertoire and maybe seeing his velocity kick up a notch or two could help him to be a perfectly acceptable seventh or eighth reliever out there.

There is every chance in the world that the Royals make a switch at this spot within a few weeks, but there’s also the chance that Marsh takes hold of a spot in a rotation that still has plenty of questions over the next few seasons. And Lynch heading to AAA after a strong enough spring is the kind of depth the Royals haven’t had in the rotation for a long, long time. As I wrote last week, the depth should only improve as the season progresses with guys like Anthony Veneziano proving to be ready, other prospects emerging and Kris Bubic returning from Tommy John around midseason. The long-term impact of this move is that Marsh could be a starter for the next handful of seasons, which would be nice. But there’s also something interesting about the decision-making process that I can’t help but appreciate.

Michael Massey Heads to the IL, Nick Loftin Makes the Team

Lofitn had a great spring, really from his first game of the year. When I was in Arizona in the first week of March, I saw him hit a home run and his bat seemed a little quicker than it did last season. I wrote at the start of the offseason that some of his numbers were sort of fools gold. His quality of contact wasn’t great. So I still find myself worried about that, but when you have a spring like he did after his debut in September, it was very difficult to find a reason he didn’t deserve to be on the roster. But the truth is that there just wasn’t a spot for him.

Until late last week.

Massey was in the lineup on Tuesday night against the Giants and then he had to be pulled from it before the game to tightness in his back. Loftin, who was scheduled to play third, moved over to second and had a great game. Massey hasn’t played since and Matt Quatrato said the other day that he would start the season on the 10-day IL. It’s a really tough break for Massey who is in a pivotal year. He raked in the minors in a way that Loftin never really has. Then he came up for a couple of months in 2022 and showed some promise. His 2023 was too uneven though. He was terrible in April, showed some improvement with strikeouts and walks the rest of the season and showed some legitimate power. He also played very good defense and worked well with Witt. But the Royals needed him to take a step forward.

Now he won’t have that chance until he can get back on the field. Could it just be a few days? Absolutely! But it’s a back injury and those things can linger. Now, I don’t believe the injury is related, but Massey also isn’t a stranger to back issues. He hurt his back in college and played through herniated discs. The guy is tough, but anyone who has ever hurt their back knows that it can be a real drag for a long time. So we’ll see how he rebounds once he does rebound, but it’s something I’d keep an eye on anyway.

So how do the Royals manage? I don’t know this for certain, but Anne Rogers wrote that Loftin is expected to play everywhere on the field. And he can handle all four infield spots (though I think he’s stretched at shortstop) as well as all three outfield spots (though I think he’s a bit stretched in center). So he’s a very useful player. I’d guess that Adam Frazier is the guy who gets the starts at second base against right-handed pitching, but I’d assume Loftin plays against lefties and then works in elsewhere against right-handed pitching.

I wasn’t a fan of the Frazier signing and I’m still not. His bat doesn’t excite me and his defense last season rated horrifically for the Orioles. That could prove to be an aberration as he rated well prior to that, but I’m a little skeptical. Guys who have defensive issues in the middle as they get older can get old fast and Frazier is now 32 years old, which is getting up there in baseball terms. We’re going to see a lot of him, I’d guess. The Twins don’t have a lefty starter. The Orioles have one and I think the Royals will likely see him. The White Sox have one and it’s hard to know if the Royals will get him or not. And then the Astros also have one. It looks like the Royals will face, at most, three lefties in their first 13 games, so Frazier is going to get a shot.

The best for the Royals here is for Massey to get healthy quickly and Loftin to keep hitting the way he did in Arizona. While I will never back down from believing Frazier’s signing was superfluous, I will give the Royals credit that they’ve moved on from guys a lot quicker than they had in the past. It’s not the same thing, but Jackie Bradley Jr. was cut as soon as the Royals had a viable backup center fielder healthy. Franmil Reyes didn’t make it out of April. And Hunter Dozier was cut with more than a year and a half on his long-term deal. Those are fairly swift moves. If Loftin proves he belongs, I hope the Royals will make the right choice when Massey returns.

Dairon Blanco is the Fourth Outfielder Over Drew Waters

This one is pretty straight forward to me. Blanco and Waters both had good enough springs. Both can play center and both can play corners. The difference is that Blanco is someone who I don’t think the Royals are too worried about sitting a fair amount while Waters is someone who needs regular at bats to stay fresh. There’s also the speed element of Blanco’s game that can make more of a difference late in games than what Waters provides. Waters offers more power, which could be lacking on the Royals bench, so it’s fair to question if speed is really that important with Hampson there, but it’s a different element for Blanco.

I also think it’s a very cool story that Blanco is making an Opening Day roster. He’s 31 years old and has been playing in the United States in the minors since 2018 after coming from Cuba. He isn’t without a little upside, though that’s limited at this point in his career. But he’s a solid player who has earned this opportunity with some excellent work in the minors over the last few seasons.

The issue for Blanco is not only is Waters knocking on the door behind him, but Loftin and his versatility could provide a threat to Blanco when Massey comes back. There is an avenue for Loftin to stay on the club after Massey returns that doesn’t include moving on from a couple of veterans. And that’s to take either Blanco or Velazquez’s roster spot. Loftin can play some center field, but so can Hampson. I think there’s at least a world where Massey gets healthy and Blanco is the one who is sent down. Long-term, there isn’t a ton of impact from Blanco getting the job here, other than that I do think he’s the type of player who is generally found on good teams.

Nelson Velazquez Hangs On To His Roster Spot Over Nick Pratto

Speaking of Velazquez, the Royals chose to buy more into regular season stats than spring training stats. That’s a pretty reasonable stance too. The saying goes that the worst time to evaluate players is September and March. I think the September part is probably a little bit less true today with rosters only expanding to 28 rather than 40, but March remains true. Pratto had a fantastic spring and, if there was actually a competition, he won the job. But I never heard the same things about these two that I did about Lyles and the fifth starter job. I just assumed, and it turns out I was wrong.

Velazquez, of course, was a monster for the Royals after getting called up following them acquiring him for Jose Cuas. He hit 14 home runs in 147 plate appearances. That’s bonkers. While I don’t think the Royals are anticipating that, he has more power than pretty much anyone on the roster. If he can put his .179/.273/.256 spring behind him and be what he was for the Royals last year at the bottom of the order, they have a chance to be better than average offensively. He has his offensive flaws, but he also has legitimate 40-home run power.

In a perfect world, he’s the DH most days and gets some time in the outfield when the Royals are in smaller parks. He’s not what you’d call an elite defender, but I think he can be fine in small samples. He makes elite contact when he makes contact. Among hitters with a minimum of 100 batted ball events, his barrels per plate appearance were second in baseball. His hard-hit rate was 37th out of 403. His average exit velocity was 71st. He needs to make more contact, but when he does, it’s special.

But I don’t think he has the job locked down. If April comes and goes and Pratto continues to do what he did in spring training and so does Velazquez, I wouldn’t be too surprised to see them flipped with Pratto playing a lot of first base and Pasquantino working in at DH m any days. The Royals would love to have the power of Velazquez in the lineup, though, so their hope is that they don’t have to make that flip. Their real hope is that Pratto makes it a tough call too because having too many good players is a good problem.

Matt Sauer and Angel Zerpa Break Camp With the Big Club

This isn’t hugely impactful to me, but they did decide to keep their Rule 5 pick in Sauer and Zerpa, who we’ve seen up and down for awhile now. I had heard all spring that the Royals were very impressed with what Sauer brings to the table and they see him as a starter long-term. They could have tried to swing a trade with the Yankees to keep him, but he looked sharp in spring training and can work as a long reliever with Lyles to help give the Royals a little length out there on days they want to stay away from their key bullpen pieces.

Ideally, Sauer can take a path similar to what they saw from Brad Keller in his first few seasons in the big leagues. You might recall that Keller was actually an effective big league starter for the first three years of his career. They’d much prefer that Sauer stays effective beyond three years, but if we’re being honest, three years from a Rule 5 pick is a big success. Either way, the Royals like what they have in him and wanted to do what they could to keep him, so he’s going to get a shot to stick all season. I’ll be curious to see if they do try to trade to keep him if he isn’t holding his own.

With Zerpa, I wrote on Friday that I was a little disappointed in keeping him in the bullpen because I’d like to see him stay stretched out. But as I sat and thought about it over the weekend, I started wondering a bit if maybe he isn’t actually someone who fits better as a swing man. I’m not sure I see a world where Zerpa is going out there every fifth day and giving six innings a pop. Maybe the bullpen is the perfect solution for him where he can get you three outs against the right part of a lineup or can get seven or eight outs when they’re needed. What I love about Zerpa is that he throws strikes, so he can protect a lead in that longer outing or he can be someone to hold down the opponent while the offense works to come back.

Many of the bullpen moves throughout the season will come due to guys getting hurt (because that WILL happen), but there are more than a few options in the minors who can come up if and when there are injuries or ineffectiveness. And if the Royals are competing, nobody is exempt, including Sauer, Rule 5 stats be damned.

Those are the big decisions the Royals made to lead to the 26-man roster to start the season. I’m glad Loftin found his way to the roster, though I hate how it happened. All of their decisions made sense, which is nice for a change. I’m excited to see how it all works out for them. This is the first season in awhile that I actually think can be fun in a long time, so hopefully they continue to make decisions that make sense.