Some Less Obvious Royals Starting Pitcher Targets
The contracts being handed out show a strong market for starting pitchers, so let's see who the Royals could get at a reasonable cost.
Two things were true from the Royals trading Brady Singer to the Reds in exchange for Jonathan India. The first is that they traded their number four starter, a pitcher who threw exactly one inning in six postseason games. The second is that they traded a pitcher who threw the 22nd-most innings in baseball with an ERA that was 14 percent better than league average. Singer was one of the reasons that starting pitching was such a huge strength for the Royals, and they’ll need to replace that production (and maybe more than just that) in 20225 in order for that strength to remain a strength.
But the difficulty is that starting pitching contracts seem to be kind of nuts so far this year. The Royals re-signing Michael Wacha to a deal that guarantees him “just” $51 million over three years might wind up looking like the bargain of the winter. Just yesterday, Matthew Boyd signed a two year deal that guarantees him $29 million. He was excellent for Cleveland, but made eight starts. He made 15 starts in 2023 with a 5.45 ERA. He hasn’t thrown more than 78.2 innings since 2019. He might be great for the Cubs and it might wind up a bargain, but that’s a lot of money for a guy you can’t count on.
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The Mets just gave Frankie Montas $34 million over two years and gave him the option to opt out after the first year. Montas posted a 4.84 ERA in 30 starts a year after making just one relief appearance on the final day of the season. The year before that, he was traded to the Yankees and finished the season with a 6.35 ERA in eight starts for them. There’s top-end potential there, but he hasn’t shown it for awhile. Yusei Kikuchi, who had a great finish with the Astros got $63 million over three years, which is a little less surprising to me because of the finish he did have, but he’ll be 34 in 2025 and has qualified for the ERA title once in his career. The stuff is there and he’s shown results, so I’m less concerned about that, but it’s a lot of money too.
I’m not so concerned about what pitchers like Corbin Burnes or Max Fried are going to get, but it makes me a little concerned about what the market for a pitcher like Sean Manaea will be. He had a great end to his season, like Kikuchi, and has a qualifying offer attached to him. Jack Flaherty is someone who I thought might linger a bit, especially once the Dodgers signed Blake Snell, and the Royals could pounce, but I could see him getting $25 million per year for a short deal if that’s the case now. While I still think they go out and get a veteran to fill that fourth spot in the rotation, free agent prices could lead to them staying in house, and they aren’t without options.
Kris Bubic, Noah Cameron, Daniel Lynch IV, Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright are five options for two spots who are obvious. Luinder Avila and Jonathan Bowlan are two other starters on the 40-man roster, though Avila doesn’t really seem ready yet and I think Bowlan’s time has passed. Chandler Champlain didn’t get added to the 40-man, but if he’s not selected in the Rule 5, he could be an option. Tyson Guerrero also didn’t get added to the 40-man, but he had a nice run in AA this past season, and Steven Zobac is someone who I think could move quickly because he has a very mature feel for pitching. So they have internal options. Those, mostly, will still be there. I want to look at their options beyond the ones we’ve talked about for weeks.