Some Royals Draft Thoughts
Before it all gets started, I wanted to look at what the Royals have ahead of them over the next couple days.
The MLB Draft was pushed back this season to coincide with All-Star Week, which is sort of cool but I think it’s also been a little bit of a free-for-all. Some within the game think the draft has actually held up trade season because front offices are so focused on these three days, so I don’t know if it’ll keep this way. I still think it’d be really cool to have the draft with the College World Series in Omaha, but time will tell on that, I guess.
The Royals own the seventh pick in each round and also have a selection in compensation round B, which means these picks in the top 10 rounds:
7
43
66
78
108
138
168
198
228
258
288
They also have 10 more picks that will be 30 after the previous pick, but I’m not going to go that deep here, so I didn’t want to waste any of your time. I also want to say that I don’t think I’m a draft expert at all, but I do talk to people who are and I’ve read so much on this draft over the past few weeks that I wanted to share some of my thoughts with you all.
The good news for the Royals is that it usually feels like if there are four great players, they pick fifth. If there are three, they pick fourth. You get the idea. This year, that’s not the case as there isn’t a sure-fire top pick and then there are a bunch of players who slot in differently for each organization. That means they will get their pick of at least two of the top eight prospects, any of whom have probably been mentioned in the top three. And they might get more than that even.
This year’s draft is wide open, it seems. Most mock drafts have Henry Davis, Marcelo Mayer and Jack Leiter all going before the Royals pick at seven, but I’ve seen thoughts that just about anyone else could be available there. They won’t have all of them available when the actual pick comes, but they’re looking at the possibility of seeing any of Jordan Lawlar, Kahlil Watson, Jackson Jobe, Brady House and Kumar Rocker in that spot. It’s a good place to be.
And actually in the last day or two, I’ve seen enough thoughts that Davis might be there at seven. This draft is crazy.
I can see the argument to take a bat. For one, the Royals have so many pitching prospects. Some of whom we’ve seen in the big leagues and others haven’t gotten there yet, but it really is arm after arm after arm. And of those, there aren’t too many having good seasons. Jackson Kowar dominated in AAA and then looked lost in the big leagues. Daniel Lynch hasn’t dominated anywhere. Jonathan Bowlan got hurt. Austin Cox got a late start and has been better of late, but did not look good early. Alec Marsh has been up and down (but has struck out a ton of hitters) and has missed time. I could go on, but you get the idea.
So maybe it is wise to take a hitter. Personally, I’m not a fan of Watson, but maybe I’m underestimating the improvement of the team’s offensive development program. As so many have talked about, it’s been revamped and is boasting some legitimate success stories for the first time in awhile. Time will tell if they remain success stories, but it’s nice to see some wins, even at the minor league level. I would do cartwheels to get Lawlar, who was in the discussion to go number one for a bit (and still theoretically could, I guess). And I would also do cartwheels for House, who could easily fall to seven. Maybe I’m just too harsh on Watson.
For the pitchers, I get the trepidation on Rocker. His control comes and goes. His fastball is really fun to watch in the mid- to upper-90s, but it dropped to the low-90s for a time this season and he wasn’t quite as sharp. His spin rates aren’t what teams are looking for these days, though I wonder if in a post-sticky stuff world, that matters a bit less? I honestly don’t know. But I know what the upside is, and I know the way the Royals front office operates. This is a guy who was thought to be almost the sure-fire top pick for a long time. When someone like that ends up at seven and he’s a power pitcher who could front a rotation, the Royals are not likely to pass.
Plus, look at this slider:
And this fastball:
So my guess is if he’s there, they’re likely going to take Rocker and we’ll know pretty quickly if the rest of the world overthought him too much and the Royals just made the obvious pick or if they should have picked up what everyone else was putting down. I’m intrigued by Jobe personally because he’s the type of high school righty who could be different than the rest. He has four pitches already that are good and he hasn’t pitched for long so his arm is relatively fresh. Of course we heard that with Kyle Zimmer, so take it with a grain of salt.
His slider’s spin rate is around 3,000 rpm, which is truly elite and that’s something that is not so easy to teach. I’ve seen some say his changeup is already a plus pitch, but I think it’s probably more around average to below average right now, but has a chance to get to plus pretty quickly. And he also features a curve. I think there would be some hand wringing from some if Jobe was the pick as a high school arm, but I wouldn’t be too upset by that. He’s not your typical high school right-hander.
The wild card for me, and I haven’t seen him mentioned to the Royals really anywhere, is Colton Cowser. He’s just sort of been a steady player who has never really cracked the top 10 of many mocks so maybe I’m wasting space here and your time in reading it, but he’s a pretty safe bat. He has good bat-to-ball skills, enough power to dream on more and has a good enough arm that if he can’t stay in center, he can handle right field in all likelihood. I think whoever takes him, probably the Mariners or Giants, will get a great pick who will move pretty quick.
If all of the six players listed way above are available (they won’t be, but just play along), I think this is the Royals preferred order:
Kumar Rocker
Henry Davis
Brady House
Kahlil Watson
Jordan Lawlar
Jackson Jobe
Like I’ve said, I would personally move Watson down to the bottom, but I’m not making those decisions. Either way, the Royals are going to take a guy who probably immediately becomes their number two or three prospect in the system. There’s also been some late talk about Will Taylor, a high school outfielder from South Carolina. He’s not a big guy but he can play center and will likely stick. He just doesn’t have enough power for me in the top 10.
I wrote on Royals Review in Lesky’s Notes that I think they’ll likely go for some value with their second pick. They may not have to go overslot with that first pick, but they likely will unless it’s Jobe or maybe Watson. And if that’s the case, you can look a bit down the draft rankings to find their second pick. It’s very hard to predict much of anything past the top 10-15 picks in any draft, so getting down into the second round is kind of a fool’s errand.
That said, I think they could look to someone like Trey Sweeney, a big shortstop from Eastern Illinois who has a lot of noise in his swing. If not him, maybe Christian Franklin out of Arkansas if Dayton Moore gets the good report on him from his son, Franklin’s teammate. Another player, James Triantos, a high school shortstop, could jump at 50th pick money at 43 potentially. Or if the Royals really believe in their new development system, Alex Binelas out of Louisville would be intriguing.
Coming into the season, he was considered a possibility to go in the top 15 and maybe even the top 10, but he just had a brutal year for Louisville. He finished strong-ish, but still had trouble making contact and really saw his draft stock drop considerably. Some team will take a chance on the power, but I wonder if he’d go back to school if he dropped too far. The 43rd pick carries a slot value of $1.7 million or so, but a guy who might end up going 75th or something like that with as lot of $831,000 might jump at a chance to make $1.2 million and save the Royals some decent money to put either toward their first pick or an overpay down the road.
Down the draft, I like a few guys for the lower rounds. I’ll list them here.
Austin Love, RHP - He was a reliever for North Carolina before shifting to starting in 2021 and did it pretty well. He has three pitches and all are average to above average as a starter, but his fastball could really jump in the bullpen. I’m not sure I would take him before the fifth maybe, so he could be gone, but I love his arm.
Ricky Tiedemann, LHP - He’s a lefty out of high school in California, but I am such a sucker for a changeup and his is really good. I’ve heard some say it’s an 80 pitch, and I haven’t seen enough video to argue that, but even if it’s “just” a 65, that’s fun. He’s a big guy, so you could see increased velocity as he matures. He also throws a slider, which will have to improve, but it’s already not terrible.
Brody Brecht, RHP - I’m not sure you can get him away from his Iowa commitment for football if you take him too low, so maybe he’s not worth it, but that’s a big fastball and a big slider. The control is what you’d expect from a guy who doesn’t have much experience.
Jose Pena, RHP - He’s a high school righty from Florida, but I like his fastball/curve combination. With an automated strike zone coming, a big curve could become a really valuable weapon as umpires today often miss it, but a computerized zone shouldn’t. His arm gets a little long, so his command isn’t great, but if they can keep him away from FIU, I’d be very interested.
Mason Guerra, SS/3B - It’s tough to take high school kids once you get past a certain point because so many will bet on themselves in college, and that may be the case with Guerra, but he has a big arm and big power and that’s fun.
Christian McGowan, RHP - I’m guessing he’s a reliever, but he has a plus fastball and an above average slider. I’ve seen some say his changeup is on par with his slider, but I’ve seen others totally disagree with that. He’s committed to Texas Tech, but it’s pretty big stuff if the Royals wnat to take a risk.
Jaden Fein, OF - I’m a little iffy on him because he probably is a left fielder at best professional, but he has a pretty good hit tool and a big enough frame that you can dream on some power with him. Also, is probably going to be available a little later, so you don’t risk as much on him.
Wes Clarke, 1B - He swings and misses a lot, but that power. You can dream on that.
Mason Black, RHP - He’s a project, but if he wouldn’t, he would be a first rounder. He throws 97-100 with a slider that can be anywhere from well above average to unusable. And his changeup is there sometimes, but is never as good as the slider. So there’s work to be done, but the big fastball has me intrigued.
CJ Rodriguez, C - You can never have too much catching depth and while he probably has a Cam Gallagher ceiling, there’s some value in that a little later on in the draft. He’s a good receiver with an accurate arm that isn’t top tier strength but good enough. And he can hit a little with some ability to make contact and could potentially add enough pop to be a double digit home run guy eventually.
Eric Cerantola, RHP - He was so bad for Mississippi State that he was left off their College World Series roster. So why do I like him enough to put him on here? Simple. He throws hard and has a nasty curve. Never say never, but he’s likely not a starter. Still, with his power stuff, he’s a guy a bit in the mold of Will Klein from last year, who has some serious power behind his pitches but likely isn’t a starter. That’s worth a flyer a bit later.
And because it’s the Royals, there’ll be a player at some point, maybe as early as day two, that nobody has really heard of. He won’t be on any boards and it’ll be super confusing. But it wouldn’t be the Royals if not for that.
I am always intrigued that guys like Mike Trout and Patrick Mahomes and others are not top draft picks, also like Francisco Lindor over Christian Colon? Whether it is exceptional insight (hello Brett Veach?) or exceptional luck (hello Brett Veach?) I do not know - but if you look at the history of successful small market teams in non-parity leagues, or of any team in parity leagues - like the Pittsburgh Steelers dynasty - or the first Chief's run of great teams - it often seems to go back to an enormously successful draft of a few core players, plus maybe some trades for diamonds in the rough. Here is hoping that this can somehow happen for our Royals in this draft over these next three days.
I feel like Cowser is the safest pick - I can see him being a solid 8-10 year starter, but perhaps never that great? The Royals need upside, and Rocker is a gamble, but he definitely has that star upside they need. I'm not as high on the prep infielders as others, but I see the potential for upside there as well, especially if someone like Lawlar, Watson, or House fall to them.