The Other Guys

The Royals rotation is going to be a strength, but who are they turning to throughout the season when they need help.

The Royals would take their top three starters against anyone. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha may not collectively do what some other top starters do, but the results speak for themselves. The three of them combined to throw a 559.2 innings (an average of 186.2) with a 3.15 ERA, a 24 percent strikeout rate and a seven percent walk rate. Among the trio was their number two starter who finished higher in the Cy Young race than their number one starter, but both were top-four finishers. I’m telling you things you already know. The point is that the top of the rotation is in good hands even if they maybe don’t feel as dominant (outside of Ragans) as others.

The question is what happens with the rest of the rotation. The fourth starter, health assumed, is going to be Michael Lorenzen to start the season. I don’t know that he’ll be in the rotation the entire season, but he was signed to hold that spot at least at the start of the season. His surface numbers were very good last year. He had a 3.31 ERA in 130.1 innings between the Rangers and Royals and was outstanding by ERA with the Royals, posting a 1.57 ERA in 28.2 innings. There are some concerns with strikeouts and walks, but he also does limit hits quite well and featured an updated repertoire after working with Brian Sweeney & Co.

The fifth starter is a spring training battle that I discussed on Monday in this newsletter that right now is shaping up with Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch IV and Noah Cameron as the main participants. All have their strengths and all have their weaknesses. Bubic hasn’t thrown much the last two years because of his Tommy John surgery and subsequent bullpen role upon returning. Lynch has never been able to succeed for more than a few starts as a starter before. And Cameron only has nine starts in AAA in his career. They were excellent, but he’s inexperienced.

I’m not entirely sold that Lynch will factor into the starting equation much, if at all, but I’d say Lorenzen, Bubic and Cameron are big parts of what the Royals are going to do beyond their big three. We know a lot about Lorenzen and Bubic, so I want to focus on Cameron and some of the other pitchers who should play a role in the starting rotation as the season progresses this season. And, let’s keep in mind that the odds of getting 559.2 innings from the big three aren’t especially excellent. The Royals will very likely need someone to step up and fill the shoes of at least one of them at some point throughout this season.