The Royals' Carlos Was Great, the White Sox Was Not

It was another fantastic start from a young pitcher and the Royals handled one of the White Sox best to take the series.

It can be really fun after a good game like the one we saw from the Royals yesterday to try to figure out what the story really is. Is it that the Royals scored four runs against one of the top Cy Young candidates, Carlos Rodon? Is it that Carlos Hernandez had the best start of his big league career against a good team (but a definite getaway game lineup)? Or is it simply that the Royals are now 903 after the break and just took three out of four from one of the best teams in the American League?

I honestly don’t know what the top story of this game was, but with a trip to Toronto as the first Blue Jays opponent in Canada in nearly two years, just getting that win on a hot day was great for the Royals as they continue their climb back to respectability after that brutal stretch from early June to the break. I’m going to start with the work of Hernandez because the pitching has absolutely been the reason for this stretch of eight wins in nine games. It’s probably no coincidence that the starters are averaging about six innings per start with a 2.48 ERA over the last nine games.

The only bad start in the stretch was from Hernandez on Saturday against the Tigers, so he needed to redeem himself. And boy did he. As I mentioned, the White Sox ran out the sort of lineup you might see after they clinched the division. I don’t know if that was to keep the regulars out of the oppressive heat before they gear up for the stretch drive or if Tony LaRussa simply wasn’t worried about this game or if he thought any lineup could take down the Royals, but they’re still big league hitters that Hernandez had to go against.

His fastball honestly wasn’t great. He “only” averaged 95.9 MPH on it, which is nearly two miles per hour slower than his season average. He was 97.1 MPH on his sinker, so he was still flashing the velocity. And he hit 99.9 MPH in the fifth and 99 on his second to last pitch, his 83rd of the game. So he still had it, but I do wonder if he was conscious of his energy exerted in the heat. He only ended up with one swing and miss on the fastball, but he didn’t give up a ton of hard contact. The hardest hit ball on the fastball was 100.2 MPH.

His slider, on the other hand, was wonderful. He threw 19 of them and got three whiffs on seven swings. The White Sox didn’t hit a single ball hard against the slider. It was a really, really good pitch. He also had three of his four strikeouts from his curve. Including this one:

Hernandez’s biggest issue is his control, almost at all times. He has a pretty long arm swing, which can lead to some control and command issues. That’s what got him in his last start. But the reality is that when he has his command down, he’s real tough to hit and we saw that yesterday, no matter who was in the lineup. This is a great pitch chart to see because he’s in the zone and around the zone, but there’s not really much wildness.

I don’t know if he’ll ever fully figure things out, but the upside is very obvious when you see it from him. Is he a bullpen piece or a rotation stalwart? I really don’t know, but I know he’s definitely got enough going for him that he should be a big part of the staff moving forward.

Maybe he was so good because he got staked to an early lead against an excellent pitcher in Rodon. I was thinking before the game that the heat might cause some problems with him and his slider without having any access to anything but the rosin bag on the mound. That’s such a grip pitch that if he’s sweaty, it can be tough to control. He did seem to have some trouble controlling it, and had some trouble getting the Royals to chase and miss on it.

He got 13 swings on his slider and just two whiffs, which is a rate of 15.4 percent. That is the lowest whiff rate on his slider this season. The previous low was actually also against the Royals on May 7, so maybe the Royals just see the pitch well, but I do wonder if the heat played a role. It still wasn’t hit hard, but it just didn’t seem like the disappearing slider that he’s thrown so much this season. The Royals were 1 for 4 on the slider with a sacrifice fly. That .250 average against it was the second highest he’d allowed in a game all season. He’s just been so good.

It started in the first inning. Carlos Santana had a leadoff infield single on a ball in the hole. On a 2-1 pitch, after one of the two swinging strikes on Rodon’s slider, Salvador Perez got a fastball right on the outside corner and he was ready for it. He turned it around for his second home run in as many at bats.

Then to start the second inning, Michael A. Taylor, Wednesday night’s hero, got a fastball in a similar spot to the one to Perez and he turned it around and put one in a similar spot really to where Salvy’s went, though not quite as far. So Wednesday’s heroes got things started quickly yesterday.

And that really set the tone. Rodon never really seemed comfortable and gave up a couple more runs. I do want to note that Nicky Lopez roped a triple in the second inning and got stranded at third, but the 398 feet that ball flew was tied for the farthest he’d ever hit a ball fair. That’s really impressive against a tough lefty like Rodon.

The formula is pretty easy. Just get a great six innings from your starter, beat up on a Cy Young candidate and enjoy winning a series from the best team in your division. No problem at all.

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Crown Jewels

So Long (For Now), Duffman

After the game, the Royals made some news when it was announced they had traded Danny Duffy to the Dodgers for a player to be named later. That usually signals someone not so great, but this is really just a matter of nobody knowing yet when Duffy will be able to return, so I would imagine it will be a prospect who can at least slot in the top half of the Royals system, but we just don’t know where in the top half yet. This is a bittersweet trade. It’s the absolute right thing. But man is it tough to see the news. I remember when Lorenzo Cain signed with the Brewers and Eric Hosmer to the Padres and it hit me sort of hard, but seeing this news come across was something totally different.

It hasn’t always been perfect for Duffy in Kansas City, but through it all, he is one of the most genuine and good people I’ve had the pleasure of talking to in my time covering this team. It’s too bad that this season has been marred with injuries because he’s looked as good as ever and I hope the Dodgers get the very best Duffy has to give. And then when this season is over and he gets his second ring (hopefully for him), he can come back to Kansas City and help to be a veteran in a hybrid role on the 2022 Royals. On the business side, the fact that the Royals are eating some money in the deal is a great sign for how they’re going to be operating under John Sherman as that will always help to improve the return. On a personal side, good luck, Danny. At least he won’t look weird in the uniform.

Michael A. Taylor’s Great Plate Appearance

I talked about Taylor’s home run above, but I wanted to highlight an outstanding plate appearance he had against Reynaldo Lopez in the bottom of the fifth inning. Any time a hitter sees double digit pitches, it’s noteworthy, but you could really see what Taylor was trying to do in this one. He just wanted to get the run home. And for him to feel some pain in what I’m guessing is the wrist that forced him to leave a game a few days ago and then stay in there and continue battling was really impressive to me. There were a few opportunities to walk as you can see below, but Taylor was working hard to get the ball in play and get Soler home from third.

This might be more about Lopez’s command, but I was surprised he didn’t try to come inside on Taylor after he was favoring that wrist because that could be a real problem for him and could have elicited some weak contact. But Taylor just kept trying to stay alive and eventually got a fly ball to the outfield that got Soler home and actually advanced Dozier to third as well. The second run never came in, but going from a four-run lead to a five-run lead always seems like a big deal, no matter what Alex Rodriguez will tell you.

Richard Lovelady Emerges

If you think back a couple years, the Royals had a lefty relief prospect who seemed like a good bet to be the next big thing at the back of the Royals bullpen. He had spent of all 2018 in Omaha and was very good. He started 2019 there and continued to be very good and finally got the call, but he just didn’t carry velocity consistently. He posted a 7.65 ERA in 20 innings in 2019 and was just way too hittable. Since then, there’s been talk of strife between Lovelady and the organization and he only got into one game last season in a season when pitching was at a premium for them. This year, he started the season hurt and then was very successful in seven games before getting called back up.

I actually think he’s been pretty good this season, but he did have one really bad game against the Twins when he gave up three runs in less than an inning. But yesterday was different. The Royals stretched him to two innings. He got up to 95.5 MPH with his fastball. But his slider was nasty yesterday. He got eight swings on it and five whiffs, including this last one to Leury Garcia:

The Royals future bullpen has a lot of candidates, but if Lovelady can continue to pitch like that, add another arm to that list in what looks like a balanced bullpen moving forward with tons of swing and miss.