The Royals Made a Big Change

In a move that I didn't expect to happen until after the season, the team has made a massive move to change the direction of the organization with the firing of Dayton Moore.

Dayton Moore’s opening press conference after he was hired as general manager of the Royals brought hope. He spoke of a parade on the plaza and of developing pitching for days. In the case of the former, the parade ended up downtown. In the case of the latter, the development never happened. And on a very basic level, that’s why the decision to dismiss Moore was made. The inability to develop pitching is what led to the overall lack of success over the course of 16 plus seasons for Moore, first as general manager and then as president of baseball operations. It all started there.

Ultimately, as John Sherman pointed out in his press conference that lasted more than half an hour yesterday, the decision to move on was simply about results. As I’ve written many times, Sherman took his time to evaluate this front office. Since purchasing the team, it became clear that he saw JJ Picollo as someone who he believed in, and, over the past few months, it also became clear that Moore was someone he did not believe in. That’s how the decision was made that Moore was no longer going to be a part of the Royals organization and Picollo would be the one in charge of baseball operations.

I think an important thing to note right now is that I am happy for the future of the franchise, but I’m not happy a man lost his job. The Royals made a change they needed to make and that’s something to celebrate. I’ve written multiple times that I disagreed with the direction Moore was taking the club, and I don’t just mean this season. I harped on it a decade ago and I was proven wrong for two glorious seasons. But the fact remains that Moore took over the Royals in 2006 and, in that time, produced three seasons above .500 and one right at it. Development took far too long with some of that talent that was part of the 2015 team and that shortened their window and then the team wasn’t prepared with another wave of talent until they restocked with their infamous 2018 draft of college pitchers.

The defenders of Moore are always very fast to point out that no other small market team has won a World Series title. And while that’s true (other than the Marlins in 1997 and 2003, though their market itself isn’t small), few other small market franchises have had as few opportunities to win a title as the Royals. Since the start of the 2007 season, the Rays have made the postseason seven times. The Orioles (again, let’s argue small market with them) have made it three times. Cleveland has made it six times. Oakland has made it six times. The Brewers have made it six times. The Reds have made it four times. Even the Pirates made it three times.

The playoffs are a crapshoot. The best team doesn’t always win. Give me a team that has a shot to win that crapshoot more often and I’ll take that every day. Don’t get me wrong, the 2014 and 2015 seasons were my happiest as a baseball fan in my life (I was born in 1985, so I don’t exactly remember it), but I’d much rather have a shot every single year like the Rays, Guardians and others have because you can’t guarantee that you can run that gauntlet every time you make it. And the way this team was run, the Royals just didn’t have that chance and it didn’t appear they ever would consistently. I’ve talked about that article in The Athletic so much that I don’t want to harp, but it was a shining example of why this organization needed so badly to move forward.

It doesn’t take away the work environment Moore fostered. For better or for worse, Moore believed in his people and his loyalty was probably one of his strongest attributes as a general manager/president and one of his biggest weaknesses. But the organization was a place that cared about people. Maybe it cared about people too much, but I find it tough to look at that as a negative. When put in the entire light of caring about people in lieu of winning, yes, but caring about people is a good thing and from my vantage point, Moore cared about people throughout his time with the Royals and will likely continue to do so. But again, it was time to go because this is a business and a win-loss record that he possessed just wasn’t and isn’t good enough.

I think it’s fair to look at Picollo and wonder how much is actually going to change given that he was Moore’s right hand man for years. Is he different than his predecessor? I can’t give you an exact answer on that, but I can tell you that I do believe him to be different. He seems to have embraced the data that Sherman talked so much about in his press conference yesterday.

He changed his role with the organization following Sherman’s purchase of the team to be on the field as they implemented sweeping changes to the development program, specifically on the offensive side. And we’ve seen the results. It’s important to not quite declare victory on the hitters just yet as they haven’t yet been able to develop one into a consistent impact big leaguer, but it’s difficult to watch the young hitters every night and not see an approach that should lead to big success.

I also believe this year’s trade deadline was a glimpse into the difference between Picollo and Moore. Many of us said at the time that the moves seemed to be JJ moves and not Dayton moves. Sherman kind of made that clear yesterday as well when he lauded Picollo for his work at the deadline, singling out the trade that brought Drew Waters in exchange for the draft pick. That’s not a move that Moore would have made, I don’t believe.

Sam McDowell asked the same question in a great article he wrote yesterday. In the article, this paragraph caught my attention.

For starters, when Picollo travels to scout players, he often has a companion in Daniel Mack, who runs the club’s research and development department. Convincing Picollo to implement data — or making it more prominent — in organizational decision-making will not be a chore. He’s among those at the front of this charge.

McDowell also notes that Picollo was the one behind the move to replace Terry Bradshaw earlier this season, which was a decidedly non-Moore move. So I think it’s certainly reasonable to wonder if there will be a change, but my opinion is that, yes, there will be.

So where does this leave everyone? Picollo remains the general manager, at least as of this time. Sherman said there would be more changes. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are people brought in to work with Picollo and others. I wouldn’t be surprised if some in the front office move on at the end of the season as well, either on their own or if they’re asked to leave. At this point, I’m not quite sure if they’ll bring someone in as the president of baseball operations or if they’ll just look to beef up their front office with some analytical and data-driven names. I’ll get to some thoughts on those names in a minute.

My belief, based on conversations with people who are in the know, is that there are going to be plenty more changes. We’ll see big moves on the development side for the pitching, but also both to the manager spot and the coaching staff. I would anticipate Cal Eldred will not be back in 2023. I would anticipate Mike Matheny will not be back in 2023. Just to tease something I’ve already written, I’ve got 20 names of potential replacements for Matheny and I’m going to get working on some Eldred replacements.

I don’t know about other changes on the coaching staff, but I’d assume anyone who is not part of the hitting crew is at risk of losing their jobs at this point. And maybe that’s why the move was made yesterday. Maybe Sherman wanted to draw a line in the sand and make sure that the decisions made on said coaching staff were Picollo’s and had nothing to do with Moore. That’s just speculation on my part, but it would make some sense.

The truth is that the move to move on is just the first in a series of dominoes. Letting go of someone who isn’t helping to advance the organization in the way you’d like only matters if the move to replace him is the right one as well. It’s easy to fire someone, but it’s a far more difficult task to hire the right someone in their place. I think the Royals are at a bit of an advantage here as they believe they have the right person in place in Picollo, but if they look to hire someone either as president over him or elevate him to the president and hire a general manager, I do have some thoughts on who I’d like to see them go after. There are others, but this just a short list of some names I’ve been thinking about for awhile.

Sky Andrecheck

This one would have Sherman ties for sure as Andrecheck is currently the assistant general manager for the Guardians. He’s been with the organization since 2010 and originally headed up their research and development department. If you’re wondering how analytical he is, you can read some of his work from before he joined Cleveland and see for yourself. Andrecheck would fit as a general manager, but would likely need that title to leave Cleveland, I would guess.

Matt Arnold

Arnold is currently the general manager of the Milwaukee Brewers, an organization that is among the very best at developing pitching. He’s been the GM for two season and has been with the organization since the end of the 2015 season. Before joining the Brewers, Arnold spent nine seasons with the Rays, so he checks off the right organizations that the Royals could be looking toward. Arnold did turn down the Mets when they came calling this past season, so I’m not sure if he wants to leave Milwaukee, but he’d be a home run hire, in my opinion as a president of baseball operations.

Josh Byrnes

Byrnes is only 52 years old, but it feels like he’s been around in front offices forever. He kind of has. He cut his teeth as a scout with Cleveland in the 90s, joined the Rockies as assistant general manager in 1999 and then moved on to the Red Sox in 2003. Theo Epstein said in 2005, “He's a key voice in player personnel. He's got as much a feel for evaluating and statistical analysis as anyone in baseball.” That’s 17 years ago, but still interesting. He was the general manager in Arizona for a few years in the late 2000s before moving on to San Diego and currently the Dodgers, which is where he’s been since 2014. Byrnes would require the president title, I believe, but he’s got loads of experience and you can do far worse than poaching from the Dodgers.

Will Cousins

You may not know the name, but Cousins was promoted to the role of vice president of baseball operations for the Rays after last season. He is absolutely one of those newer types of voices in baseball as prior to joining the Rays, he spent three years at MIT researching ocean waves. I think you can clearly say that he is in tune with data and data analysis. He has a degree in mathematics from Pepperdine and a Ph.D in applied math from NC State. Given Picollo’s baseball background and Cousins with his math side, I could see that being sort of the perfect marriage and he could slide in as general manager if they elevated Picollo.

Matt Forman

We’re heading back to Cleveland to look at Forman, who is the Guardians executive vice president and assistant general manager. He got that promotion before the start of this season, which added the executive VP part of the title. He was an intern when he joined the organization and has worked his way up. I would guess he could come in as a GM.

Pete Putila

Putila has been with the Astros for 12 seasons and this year was his second as assistant general manager. On one hand, there is some stink that comes with anyone from the Astros front office during their scandal, but on the other hand, that’s an organization that can develop talent. He kind of fits what the Royals need perfectly. In 2013, he was the baseball operations coordinator where he was responsible for working with decision sciences to integrate data, research and technology into player development. Umm…hello! Then in 2015, he was promoted to assistant director of minor league operations where his role was to oversee player development, which has been a strong suit for the Astros over the last decade or so.

Amiel Sawdaye

Sawdaye is another front office man with a different type of background. His degree is from Maryland in decisions information systems. He spent 15 seasons with the Red Sox before joining the Diamondbacks in 2016 and has been the senior vice president and assistant general manager there for the past five seasons. He’s been very heavy on the scouting side but can also handle the data side of things. I think he’s someone who has certainly earned a shot at a general manager’s role, but I do wonder about the fit with Picollo.

There are certainly others. There are lesser-known front office names that I can’t even begin to name right now without having had a chance to talk to people around the game. Those could slide in as assistant general managers even. But this is a list of some of my favorites the Royals could bring in. My choice would be Arnold to come in as president, but I don’t think they could go wrong with anyone above.

---

Oh hey, they also played a game last night. And it was a pretty good one. I’m not going to make a long newsletter even longer and go through the ins and outs, but Daniel Lynch had double digit whiffs again while throwing way too many pitches again. Salvador Perez continued his hot streak with three more hits, MJ Melendez homered again and Bobby Witt Jr. drove in another run. The bullpen threw five scoreless innings too to continue their hot September.

It sort of felt like the perfect end to a day that saw optimism creep back into Kauffman Stadium. It’s a shame it had to come at the expense of someone losing their job, but it was the right move at the right time for the organization and hopefully better days are ahead for the Royals.