Thinking Ahead: How Could the Royals Contend in 2023?

Taking stock of what the Royals have, what they need and how they could get what they need to see what it would take to contend in 2023.

While there will be some changes to the roster between now and the end of the season and maybe even some player movement between teams, the Royals are generally what they are for the remainder of the season. And what they are at the moment is a team with an active roster featuring 17 players who were drafted or signed by the Royals and developed in their minor league system. That’s a homegrown roster. It’s also sort of cheating because Zack Greinke is one of the 17, but it’s still technically true for him. The front office says they believe this team can contend next year. Whether they really believe that or not is irrelevant. I want to see how that can happen.

The first step in determining what a team needs is seeing what a team has. And they actually have quite a bit to like, which is surprising given their record and overall poor quality of play.

Bats

I think you feel good about the catching spot with Salvador Perez and MJ Melendez. I think you feel good enough about first base and DH with Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino. And I think you feel great about either third base or shortstop with Bobby Witt Jr. There are questions in the outfield, partially stemming from whether or not Michael A. Taylor is around. If he is, you feel fine about center. And I think you can cobble together a corner outfield mix with what they have, but we’re looking at certainty here and there isn’t any.

You probably noticed that I didn’t mention Michael Massey, Maikel Garcia or Nicky Lopez. That’s not because I don’t think they can be a part of next year’s club if they want to make a run at contending but we just don’t know yet. Massey hasn’t even hit the 10-game mark in the big leagues. Garcia hasn’t either. And Lopez is probably a utility option long-term, so maybe he should be in the part we know, but he also hasn’t matched his career year from 2021 just yet. I also didn’t mention Edward Olivares. It’s not that I don’t fully believe in him. I just need to see it for more than he’s shown it and he can’t show it with his second quad injury of the year.

Pitchers

This is where it gets a lot less clear. I feel very good at Brady Singer as a part of next year’s rotation. Is he more of a two-starter or a three/four, I don’t know, but he’s a big league starting pitcher. Everything else is a bit murky. I think you have to feel fine about Brad Keller simply providing innings if nothing else and knowing there’s the upside of what he showed in the short 2020. But then it’s hard to say. Kris Bubic has been solid since he’s been back from Omaha. Daniel Lynch has certainly had his moments. Thinking about Singer, Bubic and Lynch pitching starts to give you some hope, but it’s a very thin line of it.

In the bullpen, Scott Barlow is good. I think Dylan Coleman is good if he irons out his control issues and maybe even if he doesn’t. I’m not entirely sure you can count on Josh Staumont at this point, but his track record says he’s more than usable if healthy. And Taylor Clarke has been solid. What else do they have? Jose Cuas has looked like a capable middle guy. Wyatt Mills has shown that maybe he can be too. Is Luke Weaver in the mix? Hard to say right now, but I’d assume yes given that they traded for him knowing he only has a year left before free agency. Even so, there is lots of uncertainty here.

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To recap, I think you probably feel pretty good about this group of players moving into 2023:

Barlow RP
Bubic SP
Clarke RP
Coleman RP
Keller SP
Lynch SP
Melendez, C/OF
Pasquantino DH/1B
Perez C
Pratto 1B/OF
Singer SP
Staumont RP
Witt, 3B/SS

On the plus side, that’s half the roster. On the minus side, how many of these pieces are GUYS vs. guys? That’s where it gets a little trickier and where contention gets a little tougher. I think you can see a pretty easy path to a team that should win around 81 games with some solid moves to supplement. But how do they get from 81 to 88-90?

To do that, they need GUYS. There are two players who I think we know fit that mold based on what they’ve done - Perez and Barlow. The former has missed a ton of time with injuries this year and isn’t getting any younger and the latter is a late-inning reliever who has seen his velocity drop and gets the least playing time of any of the above players due to his role. I also think there’s a pretty strong argument to be made that Witt can be counted on to be a GUY at some point, maybe even very soon.

In no particular order, Coleman also could be. Lynch could be. Melendez could be. Pratto could be. Singer could be. Pasquantino could be. Lots of could be in this group, which is a good thing.

So this is where the filling in needs to start occurring. Some of it is from within. And maybe the end of the season, we’ll include Michael Massey in the group above, but for now, he’s an option at second base. I personally wouldn’t bother with finding a second baseman elsewhere, but I’m also trying to take the 35,000 feet approach rather than the feet on the ground approach here.

The easiest way to supplement a team is through free agency. All it costs is money. There are always risks, though, with that strategy because most free agents are on the wrong side of 30 and those who aren’t generally will require a bigger investment than the Royals typically give out. But even with that in mind, let’s take a look at some free agents.

Free Agent Pitchers

For me, what I’m looking for in this group are strike throwers. The Royals walk way too many batters and even with Singer not walking hitters and Lynch maybe showing signs of some control, there are just too many walks hanging around this staff. Of all the free agents through Sunday, here are the 10 best walk rates:

• Jacob deGrom - 2.8%

• Michael Pineda - 3.3%

• Corey Kluber - 3.5%

• Nathan Eovaldi - 4.0%

• Clayton Kershaw - 4.5%

• Ross Stripling - 4.5%

• James Taillon - 4.8%

• Tyler Anderson - 5.0%

• Dylan Bundy - 5.0%

• Zack Greinke - 5.1%

Of those, I think it’s pretty fair to assume the Royals would and could never be in play for deGrom or Kershaw. I’d nix the idea of Pineda since he doesn’t strike anyone out and generally isn’t very good. And I’d also cut Bundy out. If I was being objective, I’d say no to another go-round with Greinke, but I wonder if some of Singer and Lynch throwing strikes has to do with him, so I’ll keep him in the mix for now. Plus, I just like him on the team.

To me, any of the rest would be interesting. I’d be pretty cautious on Anderson and Stripling, who have never had this much success or thrown too many innings respectively. And I’m sure Yankees fans would laugh about my interest in Taillon, but my guess is any of these options could be had for a reasonable cost. He hasn’t been the same guy as he was a few years ago, but Kluber is probably my top choice on this list, followed by Eovaldi. Kluber is making $8 million this year and Eovaldi is in the final year of a four-year, $68 million deal. I’d be fine with $10-$12 million each. Kluber would likely be a one-year pact while Eovaldi might require two or three, but I’d probably do it.

Some other interesting options are Noah Syndergaard (6.1%), Carlos Carrasco (6.3%) and maybe my personal favorite, Mike Clevinger (6.3%). Carrasco may never make it to free agency and Syndergaard might still want more than he should get paid. But Clevinger is intriguing because he has shown ace stuff in the past and seems to finally be healthy. Taking away his 53-inning rookie season, he’s posted a 3.04 ERA in 554.1 innings since with 615 strikeouts and 195 walks. He’s only made 30 starts once in his career, which should suppress his price at least some.

But my favorite free agent pitcher is Chris Bassitt. He throws strikes, he gets strikeouts, he limits hits and he’s kind of a bulldog, which is a great trait to have. I think he’ll be in high demand, but he has the 14th highest flyball rate among qualified starters over the last three seasons. He’s done a better job with grounders this season, but you’d think he’d enjoy pitching in a big park like Kauffman Stadium. And with his age (he’ll be 34 next year), I doubt he requires a huge commitment as far as years. Does three years and $60 million get it done? Is that too much? I don’t know. I think maybe, but I just love the way he competes and I’d pay the bad team tax for him to be a part of this rotation.

So in order, my choices to sign are Bassitt, Clevinger, Kluber, Eovaldi and then flip a coin for a low-walk guy like Taillon or Stripling, I guess.

Free Agent Hitters

This is a little more difficult because the Royals are fairly well loaded with options at least. We know they aren’t shopping for a catcher or a first baseman. I doubt they’re going to spend much time at second base either because they have to feel like they have options at the very least and, as I said before, I’d be absolutely fine with handing the job to Massey and knowing you also have Nick Loftin right there as well.

I don’t think they’ll be looking for a center fielder. They have Taylor for now, but even if they trade him, there’s Drew Waters and Kyle Isbel right there to use in center. They also can’t really afford to clog the outfield corners because as the roster currently stands, they’ll need to play at least one of Melendez or Pratto out there to make the lineup work. But they could look to the free agent market for a corner outfielder. I’ll briefly touch on some of the options since this is the spot they seem least likely to make a move, as the roster currently stands at least.

• Adam Duvall - He’s rated well defensively in the past, though he did not this past season before his season-ending surgery. He’s not a high-average or high-OBP hitter, but he did hit 38 home runs in 2021. I wouldn’t do it, but he feels like the type of player the Royals might like. Plus, he provides some balance as a righty.

• Robbie Grossman - It’s been a terrible year for Grossman, but he did have a nice year in 2021. I’d pass quickly.

• Mitch Haniger - I’d endorse this other than the fact that he has missed a ton of time over the last few years. He has only played more than 96 games twice in his career. But he has big power and seems to be very popular in the clubhouse. The issue is if he stays healthy the rest of the year and plays well, he’ll likely cost more than the Royals should be paying for him, so this is one to keep an eye on. They’re almost better off if they actually want him to hope he doesn’t hit well.

And that’s really it unless you think the Royals have a shot at Aaron Judge. So with that in mind, I think I’d consider flipping to look at shortstops. Why shortstops? We all know how poorly Witt has played there and that he can likely be an outstanding defensive third baseman. It’s not that he couldn’t turn things around and be a decent shortstop, but if you’re looking to make a move now, the free agent third basemen are bleak. While Brandon Drury is having a very good year and hit for some power last year, he also was a complete mess from 2018 to 2020, so it’s hard to know what you’re getting. And he’s the best option.

There are some options on the shortstop side, though. The very best fit is honestly Carlos Correa. The Royals would value his leadership, his defense, his bat…everything. And my opinion is if he has another tough winter out there, the Royals should pounce. It won’t happen. I think he’ll get signed a lot quicker than this year and get the big deal he was looking for this past winter. But that would be fun. And if they didn’t do that, they should be all over Trea Turner. Again, I’d bet heavily against it, but if the Royals are going to make the move to signal they’re ready to turn the corner, spending a massive free agent haul on a proven shortstop would be fun. Turner’s shortstop metrics have been a bit up and down, but he’s never been horrible. And can you imagine the speed with him and Witt? Again, it’s a dream, but a fun dream.

That leaves Dansby Swanson. I don’t think he leaves the Braves. I also didn’t think Freddie Freeman leaves the Braves. But the Royals also aren’t the Dodgers. That said, as Soren Petro and I talked about on this week’s Kauffman Corner, if the Royals could get their hands on Swanson, as a Braves product (okay, I know technically Diamondbacks), they’d be all over that. And it could work. His bloated BABIP isn’t going to be sustainable, but he can really pick it at shortstop and he has enough pop to provide value. It could be interesting. But short of these three, I’d stand pat.

Starting Pitcher Trade Options

This is where things start to get murky. The Royals have the pieces to acquire a younger, potentially impact starter. But their biggest chips are now all on the big league roster. I could be wrong, but I think joining Witt and Salvy as untradeable in the organization’s eyes is Melendez. This leaves a potential move that could include Pratto, Pasquantino or Massey really. At this point, I think Massey would be a second piece, but if he has a nice final two months, that could change. It might need to include one of the Royals own young starters. I don’t think they’d include Singer at this point and then you wonder if they even should make the move if they’re giving up Lynch. Regardless, here are the options of guys who I think could be out there:

• Alex Cobb

• Zac Gallen

• Merrill Kelly

• Pablo Lopez

• German Marquez

• Jose Urquidy

I don’t think Marquez is actually going to be available because the Rockies live in a fantasy world. I don’t know that Cobb will be available, but the Giants could certainly use some youth in their lineup. Cobb wouldn’t cost Pratto either, but I’d be interested in any or all of these guys because they throw strikes. Lopez and Gallen are going to be the costliest of the bunch, but that’s for a reason. They’re the best and will likely be able to front a rotation. The issue is that Arizona hasn’t been willing to move Gallen to this point and while the Marlins and Royals seem to match up well, Lopez has never thrown more innings than the 123.2 he’s reached this season, so there’s risk there.

For my money, I may try to get one of these with a free agent signing or maybe it ends up as two free agent signings, but I’d get two proven starters if the goal is to win 88-90 games in 2023.

Position Player Trade Options

I really don’t think the Royals will do a lot with their position player group, so I’m not going to spend a ton of time here, but looking at some potentially available infielders for the left side, I see maybe Ha-seong Kim from San Diego at shortstop and not much else. Maybe Alex Bohm, I guess? I don’t know. In the outfield, I suppose they could get into the Bryan Reynolds sweepstakes, but I don’t see it. I’m just having a hard time seeing much out there they’d want to actually spend players on, so I think it’s pretty dry.

And finally, the area that should likely be pretty inexpensive is the bullpen. Here are some relievers.

Free Agent Relievers

I have changed my tune a little bit on spending for relievers. It has to be the right one, but I’d have paid for Liam Hendriks or Raisel Iglesias. The problem, though, is that player doesn’t really exist in the 2022/2023 free agent market. Michael Fulmer is there and while he’s been good, the track record isn’t exactly long. Craig Kimbrel has the track record, but I don’t see how he could be trusted with the contract he’ll likely want. Corey Knebel is interesting but has his flaws. I suppose you could take a chance on Aroldis Chapman, but I don’t know that it would be worth the risk. There’s also Will Smith. After a very successful career away from the Royals, maybe he’d come back on a short deal to help lengthen the bullpen.

What I’d Do

Okay, after all that, you probably want to know what I would do? I’d spend money and likely not make a trade unless it wasn’t costly. I’d go out and sign Bassitt for three years and $60 million. I’d give Correa or Turner whatever they want, but realistically I would sign Swanson to a five-year deal. And if they can’t get him, I’d stay in house for now and live with Lopez or Maikel Garcia. I’d even get another starting pitcher, whether it’s Kluber or Clevinger or a guy like Cobb or Urquidy to round out the rotation and then I’d be looking hard at trading Keller. The easy answer to help the bullpen is to get some starters and move Keller there, but I doubt the Royals do that in his last year before free agency.

The reality is that I’d move someone like Pratto if the right pitcher was available. I just don’t see it. We can talk all we want about the Royals making a trade that hurts, but if the willing partner isn’t there, then there’s no reason to trade a player just to trade someone. If the Brewers decide that Corbin Burnes is going to be too rich for their blood, the Royals should be putting a package together, even if it includes Lynch. But short of something like that, I just don’t see the James Shields of this market.

I would focus on shifting Heasley to a relief role where I think he could dominate with his fastball and slider. Without a truly dominant force on the free agent market, I think the smart play is to add numbers. Moving Barlow seems like the sensible move if the return is there because there are very few relievers on the free agent market who can match his numbers, but if the return is what it sounds like it was last week, I probably stick with him. With Coleman already in the organization and Clarke around to put with any number of options like Jose Cuas, Carlos Hernandez, Wyatt Mills, Staumont and Luke Weaver, I think the best bet is to just add more. I think I would be willing to pay a little for one of Fulmer or Smith just to get some solid experience, but find guys who throw strikes and add them to the mix.

Starters

Bassitt
Clevinger/Cobb/Eovaldi/Kluber
Singer
Lynch
Bubic

Starters Depth (Both Majors and Minors)

Jonathan Bowlan, Heasley, Hernandez, Drew Parrish, Weaver, Angel Zerpa, Any Minor League Deals

Bullpen

Barlow
Coleman
Fulmer/Smith
Clarke
Heasley
Staumont
Richard Lovelady
Weaver

Position Players

C - Perez, Melendez

INF - Pratto, Pasquantino, Massey, Witt, Swanson, Lopez, Hunter Dozier

OF - Taylor, Waters, Isbel, Olivares

There are others who will be involved throughout the year too. We all know the roster is a stagnant being. But even if they do land two starting pitchers, a reliever and a shortstop like Swanson, ultimately, the Royals are going to need internal improvement in a few areas if they want to win next season. Outside of spending even bigger than that, they need jumps from Witt, Melendez, Pratto, etc. and they need Singer and Lynch and Bubic to continue what they’ve done. Coleman has to find his control. Staumont likely has to figure out how to get back to being somewhat reliable. Hanging on to Barlow is a win-now move, but again, that’s what we’re trying to do here.

While there are always surprises in the winter, the interesting thing about this particular market from the perspective here in early August is that the realistic moves the Royals can make still likely don’t matter much without their guys stepping up. If two or three of their young starters can consistently pitch to a level of a two or a three, that pushes them closer. If Witt becomes a superstar, that pushes them closer. The same is true of Melendez and Pratto and Pasquantino and any young name you can think of. Aside from going out and signing Judge and deGrom, trading for Aaron Nola and splurging on Turner or Correa (which wouldn’t likely happen if they were willing to put out that kind of money), the way Royals would win in 2023 is because of their own guys. But on the small chance they are the reason, it would be nice to see the supporting cast beefed up.