Top 15 MLB Free Agents with Predictions

Every year, I look at the top free agents and predict where they'll go. Every year, I'm way off the mark.

The World Series has ended, so the offseason can get going. Unfortunately, this offseason might be marred by CBA negotiations, so it’s hard to say how much actually gets done over the next month before that deadline hits and they either have a deal, extend the negotiation window or the players are locked out. With a lot of uncertainty regarding the financial structure of the game, I’d be surprised if we see big movement early, but that might be just what some teams need to go out and win a bidding war. Maybe a player wants the security of a deal before all hell breaks loose. Anyway, with that, here are my top 20 free agents with predictions of where they’ll go.

1. Carlos Correa - The .279/.366/.485 doesn’t jump out at you as the best possible free agent available, but he plays shortstop and plays it well in addition to having the big game pedigree that teams absolutely love. In a loaded shortstop market, Correa stands above the rest. There are drawbacks. He’s played 150 games once in his career (though he did play 148 in 2021 and 58 of 60 in 2020). He’s not a great base runner. And he doesn’t have elite power. But he’s just a good player who also happens to be entering his age-27 season. And his defense helps him quite a bit in value. It’s the perfect storm for a massive contract from someone. The Twins, Tigers, Angels and Yankees seem likely to be big in the shortstop market with others like the Phillies, Reds and Cardinals potentially circling the waters.
   Will Certainly Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Tigers, 10 years, $325 million

2. Corey Seager - If Seager had played more than 95 games in 2021, I think he’d have been my guy at the top, but the injuries just dropped him to two for me. He also hasn’t shown elite power, but you feel like there’s more there. The other issue is that his defense isn’t great and in a long-term deal, you have the feeling he’ll move to third sooner than later, especially with his back issues. But he hits enough that it plays there and he’ll probably be a very good defender. His list is the same as Correa’s, but also includes the Dodgers because when are they ever out on a big name guy, especially their own big name guy? And like Correa, he’s still in prime years, heading into his age-28 season, so there isn’t much concern about age.
   Will Certainly Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Yankees, 10 years, $335 million

3. Kris Bryant - After a lackluster 2020, Bryant came back in a big way with the Cubs early in the year and then was good for the Giants after being traded. I struggle with this ranking because of him just being okay in San Francisco, but he also has so much versatility that he’s super valuable. He can play either infield corner and all three outfield positions, though he’s pretty stretched in center, I think. He’ll be 30 in a couple months, so you’re probably not looking at a ridiculously long-term contract, but it’ll take a few years to get him in the fold. I think the Giants were quite happy with him and they aren’t hurting for funds.
   Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Giants, 6 years, $135 million

4. Max Scherzer - He may be getting older, but he’s still quite good. He was dynamite for the Dodgers down the stretch, and while he needs maybe a bit more care with a back issue, some team will sign him and he will immediately be their best starter. The age could actually look like a blessing to some teams interested in him as he won’t require anything truly long-term. Whoever signs him will get a crazy competitor and a true difference-maker.
   Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Dodgers, 3 years, $93 million

5. Marcus Semien - The Blue Jays have to be thrilled with what they got from Semien after he had a lackluster 2020. That 2020 is the reason why I don’t know what to make of him fully. His wRC+ by year is 97, 98, 97, 97, 138, 91, 131. When he fell back to earth in 2020, that 138 looked like the obvious outlier, but now he’s done it again in 2021, so it’s kind of hard to say exactly what he is moving forward. We know he can play great defense and we now know he can do it at both second and shortstop, so his market is pretty wide open. It’s just a question of if you’re getting the 2019 and 2021 Semien or every other year of his career. Given the strange nature of 2020, I’d lean toward the other two seasons, but there’s some uncertainty. It’ll be an interesting gamble for a team to take.
   Will Certainly Get Qualyfing Offer
   Prediction: Twins, 5 years, $105 million

6. Trevor Story - Another shortstop on this list. Story didn’t have a great year in his walk year for the Rockies, but that's sort of understandable given the way they did business. The question is how his game will translate outside of Colorado, but I think we’ve seen enough examples over the years of guys who have been just fine with new teams to have a good idea that talent travels and you can’t just use his road numbers to extrapolate what he’d do elsewhere. He’s an excellent defender and can really run. He’ll be in his age-29 season. His platform year probably hurt his long-term earnings a bit, but he’ll still make plenty of money somewhere.
   Will Certainly Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Astros, 5 years, $110 million

7. Robbie Ray - What a difference a year makes for Ray. He was a walk machine with the Diamondbacks in 2020 and then was traded to the Blue Jays and was slightly less of a walk machine, but still not good. The one thing he could always do was strike guys out and he kept doing that in 2021. But what he did was basically become a two-pitch guy and stopped walking guys while continuing to strike everyone out with his fastball/slider combo. It led to a dominant season that might win him a Cy Young. The question is if teams buy it long-term or if they think it’s a flash in the pan. He was so good that it won’t matter and he’ll get big money from someone.
   Will Certainly Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Mets, 4 years, $76 million

8. Freddie Freeman - What can you say about the 2020 MVP that hasn’t already been said? The guy does everything and does it well. He hits for power and average and he’s the face of the franchise who just won his first World Series. Would it be smarter to let him go in the long-term? Maybe. But they shouldn’t.
   Will Certainly Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Braves 5 years, $130 million

9. Marcus Stroman - Stroman sat out the 2020 season but came back in 2021 basically as good as ever. He’s not going to set the world on fire when it comes to getting strikeouts, but he gets a ton of grounders, is around the plate and will give a team innings. His best fit is on a team with a strong infield defense that will help him out, and he’s a great defender as well. He’ll be 31 in 2022 and with starting pitchers rarely getting more than five or six years, that won’t be a huge issue for him.
   Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
   Prediction: Astros, 4 years, $84 million

10. Kevin Gausman - Gausman not only had to get out of Baltimore to thrive, but also get with a more progressive coaching staff to help him out a bit more. He responded with his best season with the Giants in 2021, limiting basically everything from opponents. The track record and the dropoff after the break is where teams will likely be concerned and will likely keep him from the massive deal he maybe could have earned if he had kept up what he did in the first half. The peripherals were still there, so maybe I’m overstating it some, but I think he’ll fall short of Stroman and maybe even a bit short of Ray in terms of overall dollars.
    Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction: Nationals, 3 years, $57 million

11. Javier Baez - Very few players have the energy Baez does and very few can match the defensive wizardry he provides out there. But he is always likely to be an inconsistent bat due to his inability to control the zone. The power is not in question, though, and he did walk a lot more with the Mets after the deadline deal, so maybe there’s some learning that was done. It’s hard to say. A team in need of an energy infusion might see Baez as a perfect piece to complement a young star.
    Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction; Nationals, 6 years, $114 million

12. Nick Castellanos - Fresh off opting out of the last two years of his deal with the Reds, Castellanos hits the market with his best season directly behind him. The guy can hit. He’s also a heck of a defender at DH. The rest of the league opening up will help him get offers because he shouldn’t play much outfield, though he was slightly better in 2021 than he had been. A small park team would likely be able to utilize him defensively, but a big park team would help him with big gaps offensively, so he’s got plusses for every potential club. He’s probably best served on a team where he’s not the main player, but if he’s a sidekick with some other offense around him, he could be a huge addition.
    Likely to Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction: Blue Jays, 5 years, $90 million

13. Starling Marte - Marte had kind of a weird year. He has never been one to walk much, but to start the year with the Marlins, he added patience to his game. Then he gets traded to the A’s and he kept hitting, but the walks didn’t disappear, but they dropped pretty significantly. He’s a good defender in center who has the ability to steal a base at any team, so he can add that weapon to just about any team.
    Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction: Mets, 3 years, $51 million

14. Justin Verlander - This might be a touch aggressive to put someone who has thrown 73 competitive pitches in the last two seasons this high on the list, but it’s also Verlander, who is one of the game’s best and just waiting until five years after his retirement to get the call to Cooperstown. Yes, he will be 39 next season, but there’s a pretty decent argument to be made that the time off will be good for him to make an impact over the next couple seasons. It’s impossible to know what he’ll bring to the table, but he has a 2.94 in a bit more than 1,000 innings since his 2014 season that many thought was the beginning of the end. I’d bet on there being more in the tank.
    Might Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction: Astros, 2 years, $32 million

15. Kyle Schwarber - The big lefty took his bat to Boston and just did what he always does and hit. He even played some first base, though he looked kind of awful there. That doesn’t mean an offseason of work wouldn’t make him passable, though. He was just thrown in there after being acquired, so it’s no real surprise that he struggled. In reality, he’s a DH who can play the field and not totally embarrass you. A team in need of some lefty power would do well to pick up Schwarber and let him just mash.
    Cannot Get Qualifying Offer
    Prediction: Padres, 3 years, $46 million

I’m sorry to say that I didn’t have the Royals on any of these guys, though I don’t think that’s a big surprise to anyone. I think they’ll play in the free agent pool a little, but they’re not going to get in the deep end. Will I be right on any of this? I’m sure I’ll be close on some. But the landscape of this winter is unique, so there are a lot of variables at play that could make this my worst set of free agent predictions yet. But at least I had fun doing it and I hope you had fun reading it and screaming about how crazy I am.