Trading Places, Royals Style

The Royals are bad which means they should be open for business. Let's find some homes.

If you want to look on the bright side to the Royals 16-33 start, it’s that they have a clear direction. Let’s say they were something like 23-26 after 49 games. Sure the Twins are playing well at the top of the division, but I think you’d have a hard time thinking that they couldn’t make a mini run to get back into contention. Maybe by the August 2 deadline (that’s the date this year), things would be clearer, but being so far out of the race so early has its benefits and it’s that they can be the ones to get the ball rolling. They can spend their time scouting for trades rather than trying to figure out where to go. See? I can be positive about this team!

So now it’s time to look up and down the roster and see where they can make some moves. Some are obvious. Some might be a little trickier. And the trickier ones will do a good job of telling us who is actually calling the shots. Is it Dayton Moore, who notoriously is less transactional? Or is it JJ Picollo, who we honestly don’t know what he is, but know that he was the guy pressing for the Terry Bradshaw move? That will be telling.

The Easy Moves

Andrew Benintendi

I guess this isn’t 100 percent easy because there is always the option of extending Benintendi. As I’ve said a number of times, I’m in favor of a three-year deal and I might consider four years, but I’m just not sure why he wouldn’t hit the market given how rough the outfield market looks. He’ll be out there with guys like Michael Conforto coming off a full year off due to injury, Joey Gallo, Robbie Grossman, Mitch Haniger, Kike Hernandez, Wil Myers, Brandon Nimmo, Joc Pederson, David Peralta and maybe Jurickson Profar. Outside of Aaron Judge, Benintendi might be the number two guy on the market.

So let’s assume the ship has sailed on an extension for him. There are more than a couple contending teams struggling offensively in the outfield. I could see a fit for Benintendi in Atlanta, San Diego, Miami (if they get it together), Boston (ironically), Seattle (if they get it together), Toronto or maybe even Milwaukee. The fact that he’s heading into free agency probably helps in places like Toronto where they theoretically don’t have a need because of the players, but Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. both have struggled some there.

Some of last year’s deals involving guys heading into free agency included Kris Bryant to the Giants for their number nine and number 30 prospects (according to MLB Pipeline). Jorge Soler brought back the Braves number 21 prospect. Eddie Rosario brought back a salary exchange only. Kyle Schwarber brought back the Red Sox number 19 prospect. Starling Marte brought the Marlins Jesus Luzardo. Nelson Cruz brought the Twins the Rays number 10 prospect and number 17 prospect. And Pederson brought back a first baseman who can’t really hit. If you want to add in Javy Baez as a potential difference-maker, he was sent to the Mets with Trevor Williams and brought the Cubs the Mets number five prospect.

I think Benintendi is closer to the Bryant/Marte level than the rest, but probably a step below them. So if you think he can bring back two prospects with one sitting in the 10-15 range of a team and another in the 25-30, then you can start to see what the return would be. Maybe that’s Adam Kloffenstein and Dasan Brown from the Blue Jays. Or Taylor Dollard and Victor Labrada from the Mariners. Or Jared Shuster and Justin Dean from the Braves. Or if they go the Luzardo-type return, that opens up some options as well.

The Braves have Huascar Ynoa, who was solid for them last year but has struggled this year. I thought Aaron Ashby could be that sort of guy for the Brewers before the season, but he’s been too good, so maybe it’s Ethan Small. I’m not going to go through names for everyone on this list, but Benintendi is the one who has the clearest package to ask for, so I did it here. The point is that he can bring back a nice return that won’t change the farm system, but will help supplement it quite a bit.

Zack Greinke

This actually got a little harder with his trip to the IL, so it may be a moot point, which is why I don’t plan to spend a lot of time here. Plus, literally every team needs a starting pitcher, even if he isn’t someone they’ll plan to use in the postseason. And that’s the role Greinke is in now. He might not be a guy who gets a postseason spot, but would help you get there. If healthy, of course.

Now, if they packaged him with someone out of the bullpen, maybe the return improves but I’m not sure I envision that creativity. Last year the Yankees got Andrew Heaney for their number 27 prospect. The Cardinals picked up Jon Lester for an outfielder who hadn’t clicked yet (and still hasn’t). They got JA Happ for a righty who hadn’t clicked yet (and is now in Japan) and a minor league lefty reliever. The Dodgers got Danny Duffy for what ended up being Zach Willeman, who isn’t anything to write home about. The Pirates got a minor league catcher for Tyler Anderson.

The point is that the return isn’t going to be a ton. But I still think it’s an easy call as long as Greinke is both healthy and wants to try to win a title. The Royals should grant him that wish…again…if he wants it.

A Little Tougher Decision

This is where the vast majority of the Royals trade candidates sit. The only pending free agents other than Benintendi and Greinke are Taylor Clarke and Carlos Santana. I’m listing these tougher decisions alphabetically, not in order of difficulty.

Scott Barlow

The Royals have Barlow under club control for two more seasons after this one and he’s been fantastic the last couple of seasons. He was actually good before that too, but just not as good. He has that mythical closing experience that teams absolutely love. So the question then becomes which contenders could use him?

And the answer is all of them. Just like starting pitchers, no team can look at their bullpen and think they’re all set. But there are some who are more in need than others. The Giants bullpen, for example, has struggled. If the Phillies can win a few games, they need help like always. The White Sox could use him, which is surprising given how good their bullpen looked on paper. The Mariners, Angels, Blue Jays and Red Sox were all in the bottom half of the league in ERA out of the bullpen as recently as this week. All could use Barlow.

While any team can use him, the Royals would be wise to visit those teams with their best reliever and see what they can get for him. The red flags are a huge drop in velocity this year, which has resulted in a drop in strikeouts. And he’s given up some home runs. Maybe that concerns the Phillies, but the Giants in their park probably aren’t too worried. There are some extenuating circumstances here, but the best example of a similar trade piece to Barlow is Richard Rodriguez from last year.

The Braves gave up Bryce Wilson and Ricky DeVito to get him. Wilson hasn’t figured it out, but he was a top-100 prospect once upon a time. DeVito is still a project, but that’s a nice return. I think Barlow brings back something similar if not a little better because he has a better track record than Rodriguez did.

Hunter Dozier

I’m going to preface this by saying that I don’t think the Royals trade Dozier. But they probably should. He’s now in the second year of the deal they signed him to before last season and the bigger money years are obviously still to come. He’s owed $7.5 million in 2023 and $9.25 million in 2024 with a buyout on the 2025 option for $1 million. If he hits like he has this season, that’s not big money for any team, including the Royals, but he’s limited to first base, DH and right field some. Two of the Royals best remaining prospects in the minors, Nick Pratto and Vinnie Pasquantino, have first base and DH covered. Or maybe they have first base and right field and the MJ Melendez/Salvador Perez split have the DH part. Either way, it’s hard to find room for him.

I think the perfect fit for him is Boston. They have a right-handed hitting first baseman in Bobby Dalbec who isn’t hitting. Dozier’s an easy replacement. Their lefty outfielders, Alex Verdugo and Jackie Bradley Jr. aren’t hitting well. Dozier’s an easy platoon partner. Their great DH, J.D. Martinez, is a free agent after the season. If they don’t want to spend, Dozier’s a replacement there moving forward. And look at where he’s hit fly balls and line drives pull-side on a Fenway Park overlay.

He’d be fun there. You all know I like Dozier a lot, more than most. And there’s an argument to be made that they could use his right-handed bat in a lineup that is starting to lean increasingly left-handed, but I think this is just too good of a fit. Go get Chris Murphy and Frank German and call it a day.

Brad Keller

To be honest, this shouldn’t be a tough decision at all, but it’s the Royals. Keller will be a free agent following the 2023 season. I’d be fine if they give him an extension, especially after some struggles lately, but I remember thinking about an extension following the 2020 season and multiple people told me that Keller was content with playing out his six years of team control and hitting free agency. Has that changed with a rough 2021 and a bit of an uneven start to 2022? My guess is no, but I guess you never know. And he’s young enough that if you give him a four-year deal, you’re still barely getting him into his 30s.

I wouldn’t go too high on money, but given that he’s been an effective starter for the majority of his career, it’d be tough to complain about locking up a guy who doesn’t even turn 27 until the end of next month. But, if he’s not willing to discuss a deal, then the time to deal is him right now. It would be okay to deal him after the year too, but if Keller isn’t on the 2024 Royals, then it’s a huge mistake for him to be on the 2023 version as well. Trading him now makes a lot of sense for teams interested because it gives them a full year plus one pennant race.

Keller doesn’t make a difference in a rotation, at least not with his current pitch mix, but I could see a team seeing the mid-90s four-seam fastball, scrapping the sinker and working with him to use the fastball up and the slider down and become very effective or maybe even use him as a dangerous bullpen weapon in the playoffs. Like with Greinke, every team could use a starter, but the Keller market could be a bit more interesting because of both his better stuff and extra year of control.

To me, the teams that make the most sense are the Braves and Rangers. The Rangers? I mention them for two reasons. One, they spent all that money this winter and they look sort of decent already, but that was step one in a longer-term plan. I think there will be more spent next year and with them on the fringe of a playoff race as of now and I’m sure they’re planning on being better than on the fringe next year, Keller makes a lot of sense to put in their rotation or their bullpen moving forward.

And the second reason is they seem to do a very nice job with guys like Keller. Think about the work they did with Lance Lynn when he was over there after pitching kind of similarly to Keller during his time with St. Louis. Maybe the Yankees are to credit, but I think the Rangers have a nice plan for someone like Keller. Of course, no team would turn down the opportunity to get a starter who has been solid like him, but I’m very interested in this idea with the Rangers.

Glenn Otto intrigues me as a return. He’s pitching in the Rangers rotation right now, but he had 103 strikeouts in 65.1 innings last season in AA. Those are eye-popping numbers. I don’t think he’s going to be anything special in the big leagues, but something like that just gets my attention. Prospect-wise, Owen White is very interesting as is outfielder Evan Carter. A nice secondary piece could be someone like Dane Acker maybe.

Other teams that may push for Keller maybe a bit more than some others include the Diamondbacks, Mariners and Mets.

Whit Merrifield

The Royals should have traded Merrifield years ago. It’s easy to say that in hindsight, but it’s also something that many were saying in the moment, so it’s not really hindsight I guess. He’s clearly in the decline phase of his career, but his month of May (really the last three weeks) shows that he can still be a productive player and he can help a team at multiple positions. He played outstanding defense at second base throughout the season last year and has been solid in the outfield this year.

That makes him a nice target for a few teams, especially knowing he’s now under a guaranteed deal for next season, so they’d have that extra year of positional flexibility. There aren’t actually a ton of contenders lacking at second base. The White Sox need help there. The Angels really need help there. But otherwise, most of the teams struggling have pieces in place and don’t need to add some other team’s struggling second base option.

I don’t think the Royals trade Merrifield to the White Sox, which is dumb if they can get something for him, but I do think the Angels make a great deal of sense. Maybe Davis Daniel as a back-end rotation guy would be a good return there or go higher upside with Jack Kochanowicz or Alexander Hidalgo.

But Merrifield offers the outfield option too and many of the teams who could use Benintendi would also benefit from Merrifield. The return would be lighter, but they could all use that help.

Josh Staumont

See Scott Barlow but add a year of team control and take off some closing experience.

Michael A. Taylor

In all honesty, this should be an easy decision, especially with the way Kyle Isbel has handled center field in his absence. But the Royals love elite defense and if they can have that over merely very good defense, they will have a hard time backing off that. Taylor is signed to a reasonable contract at just what’s left of $4.5 million this year and then another $4.5 million next year. He’s shown an increased ability to work a walk and he’s striking out less. With great defense in center, those are two excellent traits. And he’d be a fit for so many teams. Most would be as a fourth outfielder, but there are a few who could use him as a starter.

Looking at results this year, the Braves, Padres, Phillies, Brewers and Red Sox have all had rough goes of it offensively in center field and you can add the Yankees and Blue Jays to those teams who could use some help from a defensive perspective. It’s always nice when you’ve got division rivals in the mix for a single player because it might ratchet up the price some.

Now, I don’t think Taylor brings back anything special, but if the Phillies can get back in the race a little bit, I think you could see a pretty easy path to a deal with one of the relievers and Taylor and you might be able to get back something like Griff McGarry, who I really like out of their system. You’re not getting back a sure thing or anything like that, but someone who has some upside and is maybe in the top half of a team’s top-30 if you were to use Taylor with another piece in a deal.

The Trade That Hurts

You might remember that this is how the deal that sent Wil Myers to Tampa Bay was described back after the 2012 season. Depending on how this year finishes, it’s easy to see some parallels to that season a decade later. There was hope and then it was dashed quickly, but the team was still getting their young players reps at the big league level and they believed they needed help to make that jump.

Does Nick Pratto return Pablo Lopez to lead a pitching staff? Maybe! I’m not going to get into the possibilities so much here because this sort of trade will go from a trade where you can find a need to a trade that could come out of nowhere. But the Royals have some options to move here. Pratto, Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez, Isbel, etc. could all be on the move. Maybe it’s Alec Marsh or Asa Lacy or Jonathan Bowlan or even a Daniel Lynch to get a big bat to help bring it all together.

Likely this is a trade that happens after the season, but I’m a big believer in any team buying and selling. Because any chance you can get to improve your club is a chance you should take. I wouldn’t trade Melendez. He looks like the real deal. But I don’t think any pitching should be off the table and I don’t think either first baseman should be either. I’d keep one for sure, but the Royals could make a move that gets people to gasp. I don’t think they will, but it’s possible.

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Any other trade they make at this point is filler. Sure they could find a taker for Santana if there’s like a first base convention that Santana isn’t invited to and they all fall into a ditch and can’t play, but they’re not getting anything back for him. They could move a struggling reliever, but outside of Dylan Coleman maybe (who I would not trade under any circumstance right now), they’re not getting back much there. And they could dangle Salvador Perez in a deal, but they’re not going to, so this is as much digital ink as I’m going to waste on that.

I just hope they do make some moves because this is a roster that doesn’t quite work and some smart trades can make it work much better in the future.