Turning the 2022 Royals Into a Winner

You can see if it if you squint, but you might need to squint really hard.

Just how close are the Royals to actually being a winner? Looking at their overall record and the way the season has gone in 2021, it’s easy to be skeptical that it’ll happen any time soon. Old friend Bob Dutton recently tweeted something that I’d heard before as well about how most rebuilds fail, but when they click, sometimes they really click fast. Of course, to hope on that happening is really just that - hope. And the Royals seem to think they are close, according to something that was in a recent Ken Rosenthal article in The Athletic.

The Royals, though, have told other teams they believe they are close to contention, and are signaling that they do not want to trade established major leaguers for prospects who might not join them for three or four years. That could make it difficult for them to match up with clubs that have expressed interest in Merrifield.

First of all, words are just that, and actions speak far louder, so it’s certainly possible this is a facade they’re putting on. Of course, it does fit with the general tenor in the organization that they believe they’re close. They wouldn’t have traded for Andrew Benintendi or signed Carlos Santana if they didn’t truly believe they were close.

And I guess you can kind of see where they were coming from heading into the season. I mean, we were all pretty excited about the lineup before health and somewhat surprising terrible seasons derailed it. I think the rotation was a bit of a question but with so much young talent, you could dream a little. And the bullpen, if not overworked, has proven to be a quality unit. So I sort of get it to that extent.

That said, it didn’t work this year. Obviously. They didn’t get enough from the rotation. The young starters haven’t worked out to this point. The bullpen, which I’ve mentioned a million times has been good until they were too tired to be good, just wore down at the end of the first half. The offense had zero depth, but in reality, not many teams can withstand an injury to their most dynamic player and two of their supposed power threats becoming complete zeroes. You’d hope for better depth to be able to move away from those guys, but that’s just not there. And maybe it’s just that it’s not there yet, I don’t know.

So let’s talk about what this organization needs to do if they actually want to win in 2022 instead of just talking about it and being irrelevant by mid-season.

The Pitching

I was tempted to talk about the rotation separately from the bullpen, but again, we’ve seen how they go hand in hand. But I will start with the bullpen because I think this is the closest spot on the roster to being championship-caliber. Barring any trades, they’ll go into next season with Scott Barlow, Kyle Zimmer, Jake Brentz and Josh Staumont as a legitimately solid four-some. We’ll see throughout the last few months if Tyler Zuber, Richard Lovelady and anyone else can join them. And there are some other possibilities. Daniel Tillo should be ready to go soon after his Tommy John surgery. Dylan Coleman has been outstanding in the minors and is close. There’s a lot to like about the bullpen.

I’ve kind of changed my tune a bit on spending in the bullpen. I used to be very much against it, but I think if you’re really looking to lock down games, it’s not the worst thing to spend a little money. The issue with what the Royals have is they don’t really have a single guy who you know without a doubt will get the job done. They’re all good, but nobody is truly great. Unfortunately, there’s not much on the free agent market this year. Raisel Iglesias is available and you have to love the strikeouts with the control, so I guess he could be a guy you go after. There’s also Mark Melancon, I guess, but honestly I’d take my chances that someone can emerge from the group the Royals have with the choices out there. I feel pretty good about that.

But I only feel good about that unit, even if they can go six or seven deep if they can get some additional innings from the rotation. If the Royals were serious about competing, the top target in my mind should have been Lance Lynn, but the White Sox went and ruined that when they extended him. They simply need more innings from their starters. In my opinion, they need to get at least 17 outs per game instead of the 14 they’re averaging this season. It would be nice if it even more than that, but 17 would be enough to get them to around 920 innings as a rotation, which lessens the burden significantly from the 770 or so they’re on pace for this season.

And that’s why I suggested the big trade to go get German Marquez. But it doesn’t have to be him. I think you can look at the 2022 rotation and pencil in Mike Minor and Brad Keller. It’s hard to expect too much as far as production, but if those two can throw 180 innings each, that’s at least 360 innings that don’t have to be found elsewhere. Brady Singer is probably a part of things. I’d love to say he can give 30 starts and 180 innings, but you can’t predict that. There’s also Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar and Alec Marsh and Carlos Hernandez and Kris Bubic and…you get the idea. They have young pitching. But it would be amazing to go get an innings-eater.

The biggest free agent fish is Kevin Gausman and, as good as he’s been, I’d be very hesitant to give him what he’ll get. It’d be fun to reunite with Zack Greinke, but I don’t think he has any desire to go to a team that maybe possibly could potentially win if everything goes right. Still, it’d be a fun story. Does anyone feel like Robbie Ray can keep this up for the three or four years he’ll get on a new deal? Maybe, but it’s probably not worth the risk. The same is true for Carlos Rodon. Jon Gray would be a fun addition given that the Royals actually drafted him years ago, and I’d be all for it, but he’s not that innings eater. And there’s obviously Max Scherzer. If he wants to come to KC, just pay the guy what he wants, but I have a hard time believing he would.

So maybe it’s a trade. The A’s are always in wheel and deal mode. Chris Bassitt could be a guy out there. And then there’s Marquez. There’s really not a ton out there right now. The reality is that if they don’t move anyone, they probably go into next season with a rotation of Keller, Minor and some combination of the young arms. Can they get it done? It’s certainly possible. Will they? The problem is that nobody has any earthly idea.

Ultimately, I stand by my belief that the bullpen is good enough to win if the rotation is good enough to keep them from wearing down. I think counting on all the young arms with Keller and Minor anchoring the rotation is based on hope over anything. Sometimes that works. Sometimes it doesn’t. If they are actually serious about winning, it can’t be only about hope.

The Offense

We talk so much about the pitching and the struggles there that sometimes the offense and the lack of it from 2021 so far gets ignored sometimes. But it shouldn’t. The Royals have scored the third fewest runs per game in the American League and sixth fewest in baseball. They’re within a tenth of a run of two other teams, so that ranking can change with a good week, but they’re still a bottom-third offense in run scoring.

The question is why that’s happened this season. Going back to mid-March, the lineup looked like it could be a deep one and actually put up some runs. Not to toot my own horn, but I’m right so infrequently that I want to bring up again that my belief was that the additions of Carlos Santana and Andrew Benintendi wouldn’t help much of anything if Jorge Soler and Hunter Dozier didn’t hit. Well, they haven’t hit and with Adalberto Mondesi missing the vast majority of the season so far, the offense has struggled. Would it look different with Dozier and Soler hitting like they did in Milwaukee and Mondesi actually playing most of the season? Absolutely, but they didn’t.

So looking ahead to next year (again assuming no moves), the Royals have Whit Merrifield to play somewhere. They have Benintendi in left, Santana at either first or DH and Salvador Perez behind the plate. Then it’s a bunch of questions. I’d love to say that Mondesi will be in the lineup, but that’s not something you can absolutely count on. Oh and Nicky Lopez has absolutely earned a job with his 2021. Even assuming Mondesi on the field and Dozier somewhere, the Royals seem to be banking on two rookies to help anchor the lineup.

Bobby Witt, Jr. and Nick Pratto’s promotion to AAA this past week may not mean they’ll be up in 2021 at any point (though they still could), but I think it does mean they’re preparing for them in 2022. With Soler gone as a free agent, it seems that Santana will shift to more DH duties while Pratto plays first. Witt can either play shortstop or third and as I’ve said before, if he’s at third, he can slide over to shortstop if and when Mondesi misses time. Then Dozier can play third in those games. Really, Dozier should be the DH and Santana should be traded to a team that will give the Royals something for his OBP skills, but that’s another story.

The problem is that with this group, it just doesn’t fit if Mondesi is healthy. Look at the lineup:

Merrifield RF
Santana DH
Mondesi SS
Benintendi LF
Perez C
Witt 3B
Pratto 1B
Olivares??? CF
Lopez 2B

It only really works if Merrifield is playing center field and Dozier is in right, where he isn’t especially good. Also, there’s no real center fielder, which is a spot they should go after hard in the off-season if they’re going to actually make good on their promise to compete. All that said about Dozier, though, having him on the bench would actually be real-life big league depth on the bench that they haven’t had this season. But do you sign a guy to a four-year deal to simply be depth? On one hand, no. On the other hand, it’s still a pretty inexpensive deal, so maybe?

But see, this is where it gets tough to see the 2022 contention that the front office is claiming. This goes back to the hoping. You can look at that lineup above in really whatever order you want to and see how they could be very good. Santana and Benintendi give a great plate appearance and can hit a little. Merrifield at the top is a mainstay. Mondesi has shown his tantalizing upside. Pratto and Witt have had great minor league seasons and look like they could be the real deal. Lopez has shown an ability to be a quality big leaguer at the bottom of the lineup.

I’m hopeful that we get to see what Edward Olivares or even Kyle Isbel can do over the final two months of the season to determine if they need to go out and get a center fielder or not, but we just don’t know that answer yet. Right now, if they actually believe they can compete, they need a center fielder. In free agency, they have a few of the same options as last year like Michael A. Taylor, Jake Marisnick and Kevin Pillar. Starling Marte is also a free agent and reportedly turned down a three year and $30 million extension offer from the Marlins, so he’ll cost a bit more than that probably. Otherwise, there isn’t much out there.

I’ve mentioned Ramon Laureano in the past, and maybe there’s a Bassitt/Laureano deal to be made with the A’s as they, once again, are always willing to move players. I suppose getting him would give the Royals some offense and a good defender and would really help the lineup out. I was hoping they’d look at Bryan Reynolds before the season, but after his excellent 2021, it’s hard to see the Pirates moving him for any kind of deal the Royals should be making. There aren’t many great options, so I guess the Royals are back to hoping that someone they have can handle the role.

Without moving Merrifield and/or Santana, they’re actually sort of stuck in a few roles with a need for space for Witt and Pratto at some point, even if it’s not Opening Day. And that lends itself to the belief I’ve had for awhile that this team is going to be counting on two rookies being good right out of the gate if they want to score some runs in 2022. Again, it’s certainly possible. They both have very good approaches and could adapt to big league pitching quickly and be difference makers right away. But we just don’t know if they will, which is the overriding theme of the 2022 Royals.

---

Ultimately it feels like the Royals belief they can compete in 2022 is all about that hope. And it might pan out. If they can get innings from Singer/Bubic/Kowar/Lynch/Hernandez/Whoever then the bullpen can handle things and I feel comfortable with that, but what if they don’t? They can score some runs with a lineup that features some big-time talent with Mondesi, Witt and Pratto around some quality veterans, but what if they don’t?

The conclusion I keep coming to for 2022 is that this front office might be right, but there’s just no certainty that they can be and the way this team is constructed, I’m not sure that there’s a lot they can do without some restructuring that Dayton Moore and company haven’t been willing to do in the past. Making a move for a starter who can give 180-200 innings would be huge, but they’ll have to part with a big prospect or two. Are they willing to move MJ Melendez and Daniel Lynch? Or maybe it’s Pratto who is the guy to move. They’ve done it before when they traded Wil Myers and it worked out, so maybe they would do it again.

I’m honestly okay if they don’t make moves with an eye on competing in 2022 as long as everything is done with an eye on 2023-2027. I would hate to make a short-sighted move now to win a year before it’s actually time. The offensive development changes seem to be taking hold in the system. There’s actual depth coming. In addition to Witt, Pratto and Melendez, guys like Michael Massey and Clay Dungan and others have shown that they might be able to make an impact at the big league level. They’re still a bit short on outfielders, but if you believe in their new development, you believe that they can produce bats.

I don’t know. I guess it doesn’t hurt anything to believe they can compete in 2022 as long as they continue to make their moves with an eye on the competitive window rather than one season. As soon as the moves (or non-moves) start to be about ‘22 without regard for the years beyond, that’s when it becomes a problem. Not trading Merrifield could be considered as doing that. Not trading Santana or Benintendi could be considered as doing that, so maybe we’re already in problem territory. But in general, if they remain cognizant of 2023-2027, I’m not too worried about what was said. I just think they’re missing the mark.