Weekend in Review: A Desert Series Win for the Royals

The Royals won a weekend series for the first time in two months. It's time to celebrate.

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In a lot of ways, this has felt like an incredibly long season already. I think that’s what happens when you watch so many games that result in so few runs. But I also sort of can’t believe we’re now just a week away from the break. Maybe it’s like having kids where the days are long but the weeks/months/years are short. Regardless, finally winning a weekend series, the first since early May in Baltimore, we only have six more Royals games before a few days off to watch the best of the best play in Atlanta.

The Royals got some mixed injury news yesterday before the finale against the Diamondbacks. They learned that Daniel Lynch IV would be on the shelf for a bit with what they’re calling left elbow nerve irritation. A quick Google search tells me that I still have no idea what that means for a timeline, so we’ll have to wait and see. The good news is that Cole Ragans had positive results on his follow-up MRI. Next step for him is to start throwing, which I believe will happen today, and then go from there. The Royals ability to turn things around is largely on the offense, but if they can get the 2024 version of Ragans back, that pitching staff gives them a chance every single night. Are they more likely to deal Seth Lugo regardless if Ragans can come back?

We’d all have loved for them to come out this season and make the only question at the deadline how much they were willing to give up, but the reality is they simply haven’t. I don’t think they’re good enough to warrant buying for 2025 only, but I do think they’ve got enough to win in 2026. I can’t tell you right now if they think they’re good enough in 2025 to win (though I have a sneaking suspicion they don’t), but I can tell you without a glimmer of doubt that they believe they can fill the holes and win in 2026. So if there is a move that makes them better in 2025 but really checks off some offseason boxes ahead of time, they’ll make it. And that’s exactly how I think they should operate. I don’t think this needs to get torn down to the studs or anything.

Anyway, let’s get to the action.

The Games

Friday - Royals 9, Diamondbacks 3: Vinnie’s Day

There aren’t many games that you can breathe easy early with the Royals, so it’s important to enjoy them when they come around. With Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound against Kris Bubic, you had to feel like the Royals had the edge, but Rodriguez had been pitching pretty well coming into the game. And, fittingly on the fourth of July, there were immediate fireworks. Jonathan India was hit by a pitch on the fourth pitch of the game. Bobby Witt Jr. hit a soft single to right on the second pitch of his at bat. And on the third pitch to Vinnie Pasquantino, Rodriguez made a mistake.

I’m going to get to this after we discuss the games, but the Royals doing what they’re supposed to do with a pitch is so nice to see. It was a 2-0 pitch, he tried to get a fastball over for a strike (and did miss his spot by a fair amount, to be fair) and Pasquantino absolutely crushed it for a three-run homer.

Bubic had some issues in the bottom of the first that led to the Diamondbacks getting two back, but the Royals did something else they don’t do often. They kept going. Freddy Fermin led off with a single. John Rave singled. India put down a sacrifice bunt that I really hope was on his own given that it was the second inning. And then Witt hit a line drive to right to score another. Then it was Pasquantino again to score a fifth run. The most unlikely RBI of the night (and maybe the season) was with runners on first and second and one out and Salvador Perez hit a double play ball and HE BEAT THE THROW. That allowed the sixth run to come in.

At that point, it was over. Bubic settled in and ended up throwing seven with just one run allowed. But it was still early when Pasquantino came up again in the fourth with Witt on first after his third hit of the game.

I guess Rodriguez thought that since Pasquantino crushed the first middle-middle fastball that he wouldn’t be expecting it. In reality, he just missed his spot again and Pasquantino didn’t. That gave him two homers and six RBIs by the fourth inning, which is amazing because the Royals, as a team, have only played eight total games with at least two home runs and six RBIs, including this one.

There was one more fireworks display and it might have been even more unlikely than Perez beating out a double play grounder.

Yes, that’s Mark Canha. It was his first home run of the year and it was smoked. He hadn’t had an extra base hit in almost a month (June 5). It was only his fourth total extra base hit of the year. Rodriguez, as I said, was pitching well, but I’m pretty sure he’s contractually obligated to retire now.

I mentioned Bubic settled down to pitch seven, and that’s true, but I don’t think he was at his best. The stuff was there, which helps, but his command was iffy all game long. He did work with his sweeper and his changeup getting 15 total whiffs (seven and eight respectively) and he did have 19 called strikes overall, so he was effectively wild with his command. He was actually in the zone quite a bit, and I thought maybe too much. He made a pitch to Eugenio Suarez that was a clear mistake, but it was already 9-2. It’s just another example of how a little more offense can help. In a typical Royals game, it would have been 2-1 at that point and an extra run would have felt back-breaking. In this one. It made it 9-3 Royals.

Saturday - Diamondbacks 7, Royals 1: Dominated by the Fastball

The offensive joy was short-lived, as has been the case more often than not when they score a bunch the day before. I will say that there are so many times that the Royals offense is the reason for all the consternation, but I thought Ryne Nelson was filthy. I’d argue he’s one of the more underrated pitchers out there and I’m surprised he hasn’t been starting as much for the Diamondbacks with their issues. In this one, he used his fastball to dominate. He threw 60 of them out of his 86 total pitches.

While that percentage is a little higher than typical, he’s a fastball guy. He’s thrown it 62 percent of the time for the season. And it’s been filthy all season long. He’s allowed a .181 opponent’s average on that pitch this year. The Royals results were honestly pretty consistent with the rest of the league. They didn’t hit it softly but they didn’t get hits. They didn’t swing and miss, but the contact, again, didn’t result in hits. I’d have to study his fastball a little more to figure out exactly why it’s so effective, but I’d guess it’s similar to Bubic in that it has something to do with the induced vertical break because it’s impressive.

None of this is to say that it wasn’t frustrating to watch, but it wasn’t as obnoxious as getting shut down by Logan Evans the other night because Nelson was legitimately good. It’s hard to feel that difference when the team is so often getting shut down, but I do think it’s important to remember that the other team is trying to get the hitters out too. Again, not to take the Royals off the hook, but just to remember that sometimes it is the pitcher doing his job far more than the hitters not doing theirs.

Nelson was perfect through 5.1 innings before Fermin broke that up and the Royals did end up scoring on a Witt single that inning. Pasquantino got a fastball in the middle, not very different than the ones he had on Friday night, and hit it pretty hard to center, but Alek Thomas made a really nice diving catch to end the inning and keep the Royals off the board. And that was really it in terms of threats. The Royals had single runners in the seventh and eighth, but nothing happened.

While Bubic was able to pitch through some struggles because of the big lead, Michael Wacha didn’t have that luxury. He was also fighting it more than Bubic, and the final line reflected that. Fours were wild for him:

4 IP
4 H
4 R
4 ER
4 BB
4 K

That’d be a much cooler line if it wasn’t the Royals putting it up. I thought Wacha’s changeup was great. He led with that pitch and got eight whiffs on 14 swings. The problem was that he was nibbling everywhere.

And the Diamondbacks just weren’t really chasing. He threw 51 pitches outside the zone and they swung at just 12 of them. They whiffed on 10 of those 12, so it was effective when he did get chase, but that’s just not enough if you’re not willing to come into the zone. He walked four and hit one and four of those five free runners came around to score. The hits weren’t the problem. He wasn’t even hit all that hard. I know Wacha’s stuff doesn’t rate as elite, outside of his changeup, but I’d love to see him attack more because I think he can gets out in the zone and doesn’t need to nibble. I’m not sure if that was a plan or if he just didn’t have it, but I’d like to see him attacking more in his next start.

But again, none of it really mattered because the offense didn’t show up again, scoring one run or zero for the 24th time (they’re 1-23 in those games). It’s not a great way to make a living as a team.

Sunday - Royals 4, Diamondbacks 0: Power and Pitching

If I told you that I was sure this would be a happier entry after Anthony DeSclafani had three hitless innings, I’d be a liar. I was annoyed and frustrated that a guy who hadn’t pitched in the big leagues in two years and hadn’t even been good in four years was shutting the team down. But to their credit, they saw him once and then things turned around the second and third time through against him.

It started with the superstar.

Two batters later, it was the captain.

We didn’t know it yet, but that was enough and I’ll get to Michael Lorenzen because that was his best start of the year, in my opinion. But I can tell you one thing for certain. Putting these two pitches in those two spots to those two hitters is not going to generally end well for pitchers.

Now, I thought we might see some fireworks because Perez got hit by a pitch in his first at bat and didn’t seem happy. Then he was chirping at Ketel Marte on that home run as well. If you remember, Perez wasn’t happy with the Diamondbacks last year when Witt was going for the cycle and he ended up getting hit. We didn’t see any extracurriculars, but it still was interesting to see how fired up he was.

I mentioned that the lineup turned it on against him. They went 4 for 7 with a HBP the second time through the order before he left the game in favor of Jalen Beeks. I’d say that’s a pretty good turn after going 0 for 8 with the hit by pitch the first time through and then making that adjustment. That’s something we simply haven’t seen enough of over the course of this season. And within that 4 for 7 was the two homers, but also Jac Caglianone got hit by the pitch, stole a base and then moved to third on a single off DeSclafani. He scored on a John Rave single and then Loftin scored on an Isbel single.

And that was it for the offense in terms of scoring. Pasquantino had leadoff doubles twice and didn’t score. Isbel had a two-out double that was followed by an India walk. Neither scored. Rave had a one-out walk and stole second but didn’t score. So they had some chances and didn’t cash in, which makes you a little less excited about the early offense, but, again, it was enough because of Lorenzen.

He went seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits with seven strikeouts and one walk. This is a good Arizona lineup. He’d been really struggling with a 6.88 ERA in his last seven starts, so this was particularly encouraging. His game score of 81 was the best of the year and second best of his career, only behind the no-hitter he threw with the Phillies a couple years ago. Not that game score is the only relevant stat, but Tarik Skubal has only had three starts better than Lorenzen’s 81 this season. This is all to say that it was an impressive performance.

I think Lorenzen learned from Wacha because he also led with his changeup, though his sinker was very effective. He threw 20 changeups in his 82 total pitches and got 11 swings with eight whiffs. That’s a 73 percent whiff rate if you’re scoring at home. His sinker also got four whiffs on 10 swings and overall, he got 17 whiffs from Diamondbacks hitters. That was two off his career high that he set in a start in 2020. It tied his season-high from his start against the White Sox in May.

The hope now is that he can build on this and get back to being such an effective starter at the back of the rotation. The Royals need him, whether it’s to help them make a run to dig out of the hole they’re in or as a trade piece. Lorenzen has been traded at the deadline each of the last two seasons, so it wouldn’t be anything new to him. He brought back Hao-Yu Lee in 2023, who hit .298/.363/.488 in AA last year and is hitting .247/.352/.411 this year in the Tigers system. Last year, it was Walter Pennington. So the return is kind of limited, but that doesn’t mean the Royals couldn’t find something in return for him if they do end up dealing.

And it was nice to see Lucas Erceg continue to pitch better in the eighth. I’ve mentioned this before, but he started struggling before the injury and that continued upon his return. Yesterday was his sixth straight scoreless outing and he even struck out two. He has a 31.8 percent strikeout rate in the last six outings. It’s just 22 batters, but he wasn’t striking hitters out before, so it’s nice to see him doing so now. He’s another pitcher the Royals absolutely need to get back on track.

Overall, a very good game. Hard to argue with two out of three against a playoff hopeful even if that hopeful is struggling too.

Hey Now, You’re an All Star

If you write about sports, you’re contractually obligated to use the laziest headline/section head possible at least once a year. I’ve fulfilled that obligation. The Royals had two players named the midsummer classic, Bobby Witt Jr. and Kris Bubic. Neither is a surprise at all and both are incredibly deserving. Witt, of course, hit a home run yesterday and has had a bit of a disappointing first half if you compare it to last year, but he remains one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.

Bubic has been one of the six or seven best starting pitchers in the American League this season. He’s fallen off the Cy Young talk with a stretch of non-dominance, but his overall numbers are still incredibly strong. He has a 25.6 percent strikeout rate, which ranks seventh in the American League. He has a 7.7 percent walk rate, which is solid. His 2.36 ERA is fifth in the league. His 2.79 FIP is fourth. He’s been excellent and this is a well-deserved honor for him. It’s pretty cool that his return to the big leagues was a year ago today, so this all happened for him in the span of 365 days to get named to the team.

I mentioned this year being disappointing for Witt, and it is, but that’s because of the impossible standard he set for himself last season. It’s also worth noting that we haven’t even gotten to the best part of the season for Witt historically (well, we are there now, so I guess we’ve gotten to it). In his last 20 games, he’s hit .349/.368/.590 and it still doesn’t feel like he’s especially hot. For the season, he has the fourth-most fWAR in baseball among position players and fifth-most overall. He’s third in baseball in stolen bases. He’s near the top of the league in Outs Above Average. The man is incredible. Again, the standard is bonkers and he’s not living up to it, but that doesn’t mean he’s having anything less than another incredible season.

I thought Carlos Estevez had a shot to be on the team because of his save total ranking near the top of the American League, but it’s hard to argue with Josh Hader, Aroldis Chapman or Andres Muñoz. Estevez has a shiny ERA, but less than shiny peripherals, and the three relievers who made the team are all more deserving than Estevez, at least in my opinion. I also thought Seth Lugo with a 2.65 ERA had a shot at his second straight selection, but he’s like Estevez in that the peripherals aren’t as shiny and neither are the innings with his IL stint. I do think that either could end up as replacements for anyone who chooses not to go, as does happen sometimes. I think Lucas Erceg had a case earlier in the year before his injury, but if you don’t have the big save totals, you need some gaudy stats to get in and he just doesn’t have those right now.

Offensively, the only player who I thought had a real shot was Maikel Garcia. Like the others, I think he could find his way to the roster with some guys who don’t end up going. Alex Bregman was named, but he’s still on the IL and even if he comes back before the break, he could opt for the days off. Jeremy Peña is also on the IL right now and even though he could come back this week, I wouldn’t be surprised if he chooses to take the days off as well. Those are two spots that would make a lot of sense to fill with Garcia, though there are some other options too.

I’m not sure if I care that much about the game anymore, but I think a lot about how cool it was in 2013 when the Royals had three representatives. Over the last few years, that’s become more commonplace and it’s less of a cool thing to watch, but seeing Greg Holland, Salvador Perez and Alex Gordon on the field at the same time was so cool. It does help that they’ll be wearing their real uniforms during the game for the first time in years, so I’ll enjoy that, but I hope we never have to go back to the yearly frustration of waiting to hear which pity representative the Royals will get this year.

Player of the Week

It was a good week for the Royals, going 4-3. But they didn’t have any especially iconic performances. Pasquantino had the monster game on Friday night and then had a couple doubles in yesterday’s game, but hit .286/.354/.500 for the week, which is good but not great. Fermin looked really good on Friday and Saturday, but then had an 0 for 4 and in a limited number of at bats, that sunk the week for him. India had a .407 OBP, which is great, but that was about it. So it was Witt, who homered yesterday and hit .379/.419/.517 for the week. You know a player is truly great when that’s a week that you feel kind of ho hum about.

The Week Ahead

The final week before the break begins with the Pirates coming to town. When they fired their manager, Derek Shelton, they were sitting at 12-26. Don Kelly was named interim manager and they’re one game over/under .500 since then. While their bats have cooled down considerably from where they were at the end of the week before last and the start of last week, they’ve just been playing so much better. They aren’t unlike the Royals in that they can pitch but their offense has been generally bad even with them breaking out a bit recently. They’ve had some down years from guys they expected to have big years. Oneil Cruz has just been okay, even if he’s still electric. Bryan Reynolds has been himself for about a month and a half, but he was so bad to start that the numbers are still lagging.

They’ve obviously got the big name at the top of the rotation in Paul Skenes (from a Royals perspective, thankfully they’ll miss him; from a baseball perspective, I’d have loved to have seen him live), but Andrew Heaney, Mitch Keller and Bailey Falter have all pitched well in the rotation. In the bullpen, David Bednar was sent down earlier this year, but he has been outstanding of late as their closer. He’s a prime trade candidate. They’ve gotten good relief work, but other than Bednar, they don’t get a ton of strikeouts. Here are the pitching matchups:

• Monday: LHP Noah Cameron vs. LHP Andrew Heaney

• Tuesday: RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Mitch Keller

• Wednesday: LHP Kris Bubic vs. LHP Bailey Falter
  

After an off-day Thursday, the Mets come to town for the final series before the break. They’d been scuffling before winning a series against the Yankees this weekend at home. Still, they’re not playing exceptionally well right now. It looks like the Royals will likely see two pitchers coming off the IL. Kodai Senga looks poised to return for Saturday or Sunday after not pitching since June 12 and Sean Manaea also looks to make his season debut against his original organization. Those two help the Mets outlook and they obviously have the stars on offense in Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. That’s a tough way to end the first “half” of the season.