Weekend in Review: A Royals Series Win to End It

It was a long year for the Royals that suddenly got very short at the end.

It doesn’t feel like that long ago that the first Weekend in Review of the year came out and the Royals had just been swept by the Twins to open the series. It only covered two games since the first game was on Thursday before an off day, but I wrote about how they hit the ball hard and the ball just didn’t fall for them. That was a theme for a bit. On the plus side, they actually did keep hitting the ball hard throughout the year. And eventually, the offense did come around. It was far too late, but it came around. What a strange, horrible season. I couldn’t wait for it to end and now we sit here less than a day after it ended and I miss it.

I wrote many times how hard it is to lose 100 games, and I think this team may have shown that even in losing 106, which tied a franchise record. They were on pace for fewer than 42 wins as late as June 19 and ended up winning 56. They were on pace for 45 wins on July 26! Of course a seven-game winning streak got them off the historical loss pace and then a really strong September/October where they went 15-12 with a +9 run differential got them to the point where they at least didn’t set a new franchise record for losses. Tying it was bad, but it’s better than breaking that record.

But before we look forward and talk about how you turn a 7-22 March/April into something more like 13-16 and a 6-20 June into something like 12-14 (that’s 12 wins and still bad months!), let’s take one last look back on what happened during the games because the next ones won’t happen for like five months and those don’t even count. But also, let’s bask in the glow of taking a series from the Yankees finally. They’d won 14 in a row over the Royals, so yeah, they still got a win and got to their 32nd straight season over .500, but the Royals took two of three and that’s better than not taking two of three.

The Weekend’s Action

Bobby Got 30/30

Please do not search the archives for some of my embarrassing predictions (Brady Singer gets Cy Young votes? Idiot.). But one came true and it was Bobby Witt Jr. putting up a 30/30 season. It was a lot more of a nailbiter than expected, though. On September 1, Witt went 3 for 5 with his 28th home run of the season. At that point, the Royals had 26 games left and Witt had 28 homers and 38 steals. Done deal, right? Well…

He homered again on September 15 for his 29th of the season with 14 games to go, but then went into a power drought. Was the pressure getting to him? Did he just hit a slump at a bad time? After all, he’d hit .313/.357/.546 from June 2 to the day after that 29th home run. Hitters go through ups and downs and there hadn’t been many downs for Witt since the start of that stretch. Whatever it was, things got a little concerning. I was sure he’d hit one in Houston where you can hit a lazy fly ball to left and it goes out of the park. But he didn’t. Then Tigers pitching thoroughly flummoxed the Royals and it was down to one last weekend against the Yankees.

I’ll get to the first game of this series in a minute, but thankfully the Royals offense was clicking on Friday night and Witt came up in the bottom of the seventh with one on and one out against Kenyan Middleton.

I love that it was a no-doubter. I love that it was kind of an important home run in the game. It wasn’t super important, but it wasn’t unimportant. And I love that it actually happened. Witt put together the season we were all expecting when he made the team last year out of spring training as one of the top three prospects in baseball, depending on which publication you were reading. Last year was uneven with glimpses of what he could do, but he finally put it all together this season, even with a rough two months to start the year.

He finished the season hitting .275/.318/.491, which was good for a 114 wRC+. From the start of June to the end of the year, he hit .301/.346/.526, which was a 131 wRC+. I think that’s the expectation heading into 2024. He was worth 4.6 fWAR from June 1 on, which was eighth in all of baseball. Overall, he was worth 5.7 fWAR, which was 12th overall. His defense, which went from borderline unplayable to Gold Glove-worthy, helps in that number, but however he got there, he was considered the 12th most valuable player in baseball this season. That’s a superstar.

He put up numbers nobody has ever put up. I would have loved an extra two doubles and an extra steal to put up a 30 double, 10 triple, 30 homer, 50 steal season, but the 28, 11, 30 and 49 were a combination that nobody had ever put up before him. You can see for yourself. The more stats you put together, the easier it is to find rarities, but I think doubles, triples, homers and steals together is a pretty solid combination of stats to not worry too much about that. Even if you lower the doubles to 25, the triples to 10 and the steals to 40, you only add 2007 Jimmy Rollins to the list.

The expectation is that this is just the start. And while there will be doubters until the ink is on the contract, I think they get a deal done for him this winter. There’s just been too much public conversation about it from the people working to get it done for me to believe they’ll let it slip through. It’s the perfect mechanism to get a “yes” vote on a new stadium and he’s the right player to do this with as the new face of the franchise.

Grenke Sent Off in Style

Now, we don’t know if Zack Greinke is going to come back next season. But the way he left the mound yesterday and the way he left it in Detroit a few days before tells me that I’d bet on retirement. And if this is it, that’s how you end a career. It was an uneven season for him, ending with an ERA over 5.00 for just the second time in his career. And the 2-15 record was UGLY, but down the stretch, Greinke showed that there might be a role for him if he’s willing to not be a traditional every fifth day starting pitcher.

In his final four starts, he put up a 1.72 ERA with 13 strikeouts in 15.2 innings. He didn’t give up a home run. He walked just four. He didn’t do it against a murderer’s row of offenses, but he still looked pretty solid in those games. Take it back to August 22 and he put up a 3.41 ERA in his final eight outings spanning 31.2 innings with 24 strikeouts and eight walks. It was a nice way to end a season, which maybe he wants to end on a high note. But it was fun watching him pitch yesterday.

He gave up hits to the first three batters he faced and then went to work with a double play grounder and then an easy out to end the inning. He didn’t find trouble again until the sixth. I imagine if this wasn’t the final game of the year at home in what is at least somewhat likely to be his final game that he wouldn’t have even gone out for the sixth. But the result mattered less than getting Greinke his flowers, so he was sent back out for the sixth to face one batter and I think he was getting pulled after that no matter what.

And he got his moment. It was a nice crowd (too many Yankees fans, but you’ll see most of them at your local Target today wearing Chiefs gear and they’ll get their Royals gear out again when they’re good again) and they gave him an ovation that certainly made my allergies go crazy for a few minutes. What I noticed the most is that he seemed to soak it in as he walked off the field.

Very, very cool.

Two things I want to touch on with Greinke. One, I think it was more than reasonable to bring him back this year given the lack of pitching and the way he finished 2022 with a 3.68 ERA. It didn’t work out as well as anyone would have hoped, but it was a reasonable gamble. And two, he’s a Hall of Famer. There’ll be debate over him because nothing stands out as elite. His 225 wins is a bit below the average HOFer and a fair amount below the average HOF starter. But that’s changed and will continue to change in five years when he’s eligible. His ERA was a bit high, but his 121 ERA+ is in line with guys like Mike Mussina (123), Fergie Jenkins (115) and Tom Glavine (118) and better than guys like Jim Kaat and Jack Morris.

He fielded his position incredibly well. He was recognized as the best of the best once and was a top-10 Cy Young finisher four other teams with two of those being top-five finishes. He pitched to a 1.80 ERA in three World Series starts. Some will disagree, but he’s a Hall of Famer in my eyes.

A Massive First

To talk a bit about what happened on the field for the team rather than focusing on individuals, the first inning on Friday night was pretty darn fun. After a Jordan Lyles 1-2-3 first (they do exist!), the Royals came up to the plate against Carlos Rodon, the Yankees prize free agent pitching acquisition from the previous winter. It hadn’t been a good year for Rodon, but we all know what he can be when he’s right. He was, uh, not right. Here’s how it went for him:

Maikel Garcia singles
Witt walks
Salvador Perez doubles
Edward Olivares homers
Nelson Velazquez singles
Nick Loftin singles
Matt Duffy singles
Logan Porter walks

Eight batters, eight reached. I went to look up how often that had happened and I thought I did the search wrong because it was so rare. I was sitting at home and I made my wife look at the search to make sure it made sense. And sure enough, it did. It was just the seventh time ever that a starting pitcher had faced eight or more batters without recording an out. There are some interesting nuggets within that. One, none of the seven faced a ninth batter. Two, the previous six times were accomplished by pitchers from three teams - Cincinnati (Paul Wilson twice), Oakland (Blake Stein and Bill Krueger) and the Mets (Bobby Jones and Steven Matz). Also, the Royals have now done it to an opposing pitcher twice as they were the offenders against Krueger. Stuff like that is wild to me.

Matt Bowman came on to replace him and he didn’t fare any better at first, giving up a double to Kyle Isbel and then another single to Garcia. The first 10 batters reached, which is just absurd. Rodon allowed eight earned runs in eight batters. He’s the third of that above group to have all eight runs be earned. When Witt hit a sacrifice fly for the first out, it was a 9-0 Royals lead and that was going to be enough, but I guess you never know with Lyles on the mound.

He held it together enough to pick up his sixth win of the year, but what a way to start the last weekend of the season.

Playoff Predictions

This is the point where I’m wrong about everything. I’m going to give you my playoff predictions, so if you’re a gambler, bet the opposite.

ALWC

Blue Jays over Twins
Rays over Rangers

NLWC

Brewers over Diamondbacks
Phillies over Marlins

ALDS

Blue Jays over Astros
Orioles over Rays

NLDS

Braves over Phillies
Brewers over Dodgers

ALCS

Blue Jays over Orioles

NLCS

Brewers over Braves

WC

Blue Jays over Brewers

Let me give you a little reasoning. First of all, I got some fantastic odds on the Blue Jays back at mid-season, so I’m predicting with my sports betting account in mind and willing it into existence. But I also think the Blue Jays and Brewers have the best starting pitching in the postseason. The Twins are up there too, but one of the teams has to win and I think the Blue Jays are the better offense between the two. The Braves are the best team in the sport and their offense should be enough to carry them, but I worry a bit about their pitching and that’s why I think the Brewers beat them in the end.

But here’s the thing. The playoffs are wild. Anything can happen. If I’m wrong about literally every single series, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. Playoff baseball is a beast and it’s super fun and I’m very excited for it to get started. The one upside to your team being horrendous is that there isn’t any stress in the postseason. You get to enjoy all the craziness with none of the need for antacids every other inning.

Thank You

There’s no look ahead because there are no more games. This is the third season I’ve written about the Royals on Inside the Crown and, I believe, the 14th year I’ve written about them on any of a number of websites over the years. Many of you have been reading me since the start or at least close to the start. You’re rock stars for dealing with how much I write. Many of you found me on Pine Tar Press or Baseball Prospectus Kansas City or Royals Review. And some of you didn’t find me until I started Inside the Crown before the start of the 2021 season. I couldn’t do any of it without all of you readers. I mean I could, but who wants to yell into a void? So thank you from the bottom of my heart.

This past year has been pretty big for me. My wife and I welcomed a baby into the world. I changed jobs for the first time in more than half a decade. The Royals tried to break me multiple times and only succeeded like 30 percent of the time. And with some of these changes, I added paid subscriptions to support my work. The number of you who deemed my work worthy of spending some of your hard-earned money on was staggering and honestly brought me to tears a couple of times. I understand if not everyone is able or even wants to and that’s okay! Your support is great too. But I was surprised at how many of you were so willing to support this financially as well.

I’m not sure what my writing will look like over the next couple of weeks. In some ways, I want to take a little time and unpack the season. In other ways, I’ve got about 78 things I want to write about. So I can’t tell you if there’ll be something tomorrow or Wednesday or not. There might be! But you all are incredible, so I know that whenever the next newsletter comes out, you’ll be there to open and read it and give me that dopamine hit. So thank you for a great third (and 14th) Royals season!