Weekend in Review: A Series Win That Required Some Magic

The Twins just stranded two runners while you were scrolling to read today's newsletter.

Royals pitching allowed 38 base runners in three games to the Minnesota Twins, a team that can legitimately hit. They came into the series 10th in baseball in runs scored, eighth in wRC+ and sixth in home runs. If I told you that they’d allow 12 runs the whole series with 38 runners on base, you’d slap me and call me a liar. But that’s what happened. The Royals pitching staff continuously pulled rabbits out of their hats all weekend and got big outs almost every time they needed them.

You might read that and think this is a criticism. And it sort of is, but I also mean that in the best way. This is a staff that pitched in trouble for the better part of three straight games and was able to navigate a very good offense. It wasn’t always pretty, but they got the job done. And with some help from an offense that was awfully quiet in Tampa, they picked up a series win and that’s fun.

The Best Team is Finally On the Field

The Royals got Adalberto Mondesi back during the Rays series, and he’s started off pretty strong, even with his 0 for 4 yesterday. Hunter Dozier, who remains so important to this team for the rest of this season is back after a short rehab stint. And they did bring up Edward Olivares who was making a bit of a mockery of AAA in the first few weeks of that season. Of course, that came at the expense of Jorge Soler, who left Saturday’s game with a strained groin (though it seems like he might avoid the IL at this time).

You can argue that Dozier in the lineup doesn’t make this the best possible team, but I would argue that the only way they get where they want to be this season is if Dozier gets back to something close to his 2019 season. The same is true with Soler. But having Olivares on the roster with Mondesi back really puts the best team on the field for the first time all season long. Nicky Lopez is now in the utility role he should be in. Hanser Alberto is the bat off the bench against lefties (more on that in a bit). And Kelvin Gutierrez provides the best possible defense at third base. I think someone is likely going to have to go once they can get Soler back in the lineup, but still, I think this is where the Royals are at their best.

And this comes with the team going 9-6 since the end of their 11-game losing streak. They’ve done that with a +12 run differential, scoring 62 and allowing 50. This is reminiscent of their early season success where they weren’t dominating by any stretch, but they were getting it done without seeming like they were at their best form. With the team now seemingly where they were hoping to be to start the season in terms of talent at the big league level, this is their opportunity to go. I realized yesterday after the series that maybe I’ve been a bit hard on them.

David Lesky @DBLesky

The Rays had won 11 in a row and the Twins six of seven leading up to their respective series with the #Royals, so a 3-3 road trip and being the only loss for the Rays now in their last 16 games is really impressive. Nice week of baseball.

It’s good to see some good baseball. I’ll have more on the week ahead down below.

The Games

All in all, it was a good weekend for wins and losses and nice to see the offense put up some runs after getting shut down in Tampa. The walks, well, they’re a problem. But a 3-3 road trip and a series win in Minnesota will certainly work.

Friday

After a pretty lifeless series finale with the Rays, the Royals headed to Minnesota, which was the scene of the beginning of their long losing streak. The Royals sent Kris Bubic out against a really good lineup in Minnesota. They’re not the team they were in 2019, but they can hit and with big power against lefties. But Bubic was really good, once again. He struggled in the first similar to his last start against the Brewers, but after that, he settled in.

Still, that first inning was rough. He walked two hitters, which has been a theme this whole road trip and if not for an outstanding play by Kelvin Gutierrez to start a double play against Josh Donaldson, he’d have been in big trouble. But Gutierrez started the double play, so the Nelson Cruz double that followed and then subsequent walk didn’t come back to hurt him. That’s also a theme in this series.

In all, he ended up going six solid innings with those walks in the first the only ones he allowed the whole game. The changeup was really good once again, which is becoming quite a trend for Bubic that fits with what we’ve all heard about him as a prospect. When he was getting swinging strikes on that pitch, he kept the ball down and really did a nice job of messing with the timing of Twins hitters. Here’s all the swings and misses on his changeup.

Other than a home run allowed to Mitch Garver on a pitch that did not go where he wanted it, Bubic really was pretty masterful after that first inning. And just because I like you, check out this strikeout of Miguel Sano by Bubic because it’s very attractive and I want you all to see it.

The Royals offense backed up Bubic for the first time really. They’d won each of his first two starts, but had scored five runs total. In this one, it was some classic Royals offense with three runs in the fifth and five more in the seventh. Notably, the rally in the fifth inning started with two outs after I’d noted that the Royals seemed likely to do some damage at some point soon because they were hitting the ball with authority and Twins starter Randy Dobnak wasn’t getting many swings and misses.

It started with a Dozier walk, which is notable in his first game back because of his struggles before his injury. A Michael A. Taylor double and a questionable send by Vance Wilson led to the first run and then a Whit Merrifield single (with a bad decision to throw home to let Merrifield get to second) was followed by a Carlos Santana single, which gave the Royals the 3-1 lead.

They went about it a little differently in the seventh, not waiting until there were two outs. The first three batters reached on singles, which included Jorge Soler’s second of the game and Dozier’s first hit since May 5. Another hit from Taylor loaded the bases when the Twins pulled Dobnak and went to their bullpen that can’t strand anyone. A double, a sac fly, a walk and two more singles later and the Royals ended up batting around and scoring five. And then it was Tyler Zuber time.

If you’re reading this, you probably know what happened. I’ll give you the short version. He got Sano to pop out on a 3-1 pitch before he walked the next three hitters. Yes, that’s right. With a 7-run lead, Zuber simply couldn’t throw a strike.

The Royals already put Josh Staumont on the injured list and thought they could stay away from the big arms with that lead, but Zuber basically forced them to use Kyle Zimmer. He ended up giving up two of the runs and minimizing the damage, which, again, they did all weekend, but what a disaster. Zuber’s roster spot is basically saved by the lack of options the organization has for the bullpen right now.

But all in all, it ended up a pretty easy win, which evened up their road trip and got them back close to .500.

Saturday

There was some serious intrigue with who the Royals starter might be in this one, with many thinking would be Jackson Kowar until Kowar started for Omaha on Friday night. When Mike Matheny announced it’d be Ervin Santana, I think some people were disappointed, but it seemed pretty clear it would be either him or Carlos Hernandez. And in all, Santana was generally fine. He made a big mistake to Trevor Larnach in the second, allowing a long home run to dead center.

But I think after he got through three innings, that should have been it for him. I understand why Matheny has been pushing some starters a little more, but I’m not sure why he felt the need to push Santana, who was pitching okay enough, but it’s not like he was rolling through the lineup. He walked the leadoff man and in came Hernandez, who I really wish had a clean inning.

And boy did he struggle. He just couldn’t find the zone, walking the first two batters he faced to load the bases before giving up a single. He did get a strikeout and then a flyout before a passed ball on a ball that missed its spot by about a mile and a half gave the Twins their second run of the inning.

Yikes.

But I really thought Hernandez was pretty good once he settled in. He averaged 98.4 MPH on his sinker and when he got hitters to pull the trigger, they were having a tough time making contact with both his curve and his slider. There were a lot of questions wondering why he’s getting a shot and, aside from the fact that they don’t really have a lot of options right now, I think he showed why over the next few innings.

Once he got it together, it was easy to see what the Royals like about him. My good friend Clint Scoles has noted that his long arm swing is an issue, and I agree, but stuff like that can absolutely play. I did originally think he was a reliever long-term, but I’m not sure he can be a relief option with that control. He probably needs to be given six innings to be able to work through the up and down control. I don’t know. Maybe I’m looking at him through blue glasses, but there’s definitely something there to at least explore.

I didn’t like him going back out there for the eighth, which ultimately probably cost the Royals a chance at the game and a sweep. A double and a walk put Greg Holland in a tough spot. He ended up giving up a hit on an 0-2 pitch that scored the Twins sixth run. It was a slider that should never have seen so much of the plate, but it did and the run scored.

Then in the top of the ninth, we finally got to see something we’d been waiting on for months, a Mondesi home run.

That one made it 6-5 and after a lineout by Dozier, Matheny made another decision I just couldn’t get behind. With Taylor Rogers on the mound, a lefty, he went to Andrew Benintendi to pinch hit for Taylor. Benintendi was 2 for 5 in his career against Rogers, but Benintendi was hitting .226/.268/.264 against lefties before that at bat. I said it on Twitter and I stand by it. Five at bats should never override something like that. Benintendi struck out and then so did Alberto, who is on this roster literally for the one purpose of hitting lefties and it was a 6-5 loss.

Sunday

A first inning run scored on a Merrifield double followed by a productive out from Carlos Santana and a Benintendi single held up for a few minutes when Brad Keller took the mound and looked a lot more like the guy we saw early in the season than the one we’ve seen over his last few starts. He walked Josh Donaldson, gave up a single to Alex Kirilloff and then walked Nelson Cruz to load the bases. After striking out Sano (it may have seemed like he struck out 11 times in the series, but really it was only five), he issued a walk to rookie Trevor Larnach.

Give Larnach some credit for laying off some tough pitches, but that’s what the Twins do. Three walks and a single and Keller had given the run right back. In all, he threw 33 first inning pitches.

He tried to hard to get the Twins to chase, but they just didn’t do it on any of his sliders down just below the line. I honestly thought the slider looked good, but he just couldn’t get the Twins to bite on it. It was actually a really impressive display of discipline, but Keller needed to use that fastball because the Twins were struggling with it in the first.

After allowing a home run to start the second, Keller settled down. Andrelton Simmons reached on an error, but after that, Keller retired nine of 10 to get through the fourth inning and hand it off to the Royals offense, getting to see Matt Shoemaker a third time.

The offense started with a base hit by Olivares to left field and was followed immediately by a single by Gutierrez. Then Dozier came up and it felt like an opportunity for him to really break out. And he hit a grounder to shortstop. But, and I don’t want to put too much on this because he still had a terrible swing, he busted it down the line and beat the throw to first. That was good for his stats because it allowed him to get an RBI on the tying run scoring, but it also kept a man on base and kept the inning at one out.

A Jarrod Dyson single got him to second and then a Merrifield single scored Dozier. Let’s assume for a second that everything after the Dozier fielders choice happens identically and Dyson goes to third on an error and Merrifield second and then Santana walks. Benintendi’s sacrifice fly would be the third out of the inning and the inning would end with the game tied at two. Instead, it drove in the Royals third run and got Salvador Perez to the plate, the man who has more homers than any visiting player at Target Field.

Of course, he didn’t homer, but he did single to left and scored two more. At this point, it’s now 5-2, but would still be tied if Dozier had run even a split second slower. That’s worth praising, I think.

Keller immediately worked on giving that back, which is an issue we’ve seen with this team for a few weeks now. First, a Donaldson double. Then another hit for Kirilloff (who seems like he’ll be a thorn in the Royals’ collective side for years) and another walk. The bases were loaded with nobody out. Up came Sano, who just killed rallies all weekend for the Twins. He hit into a double play and while a run scored, Keller was able to then get out of the inning with a strikeout.

Since we pay so close attention to Keller these days after the start to the season, I’ll mention that he threw his slider 34 percent of the time, so another start with it roughly around where it was in 2020. In looking back at the start, I think he made some great pitches that the Twins were just outstanding in laying off. I think he made some terrible pitches too, but that was a lot of the Twins having a fantastic approach.

What I find very interesting about Keller is he’s now been striking out plenty of hitters. Over his last five starts, he’s 3-1 with a 3.81 ERA, but in 28.1 innings, he’s struck out 30 and walked 13. That’s a 24.6 percent strikeout rate for a pitcher with a career rate of 17.1 percent is pretty interesting to me. His next start will be against the Twins and hten it looks like he’ll get the Angels, Tigers and Red Sox in his next three.

Of course, we’re not done with this game. Kyle Zimmer was fantastic in the sixth, getting the Twins so fast that he got the seventh. And of course, there’s another walk. Then there was a bizarre Donaldson groundout followed by yet another walk. So in comes Scott Barlow, and woo boy was he good.

He started off by getting Cruz on strikes.

Then he got Sano.

And he was out of it.

There was a hit by pitch, which was a new wrinkle, and a walk in the eighth by Barlow, but also two more strikeouts and he handed it off to Holland who had trouble with walks all year. And because baseball is what baseball is, he got three batters and threw 10 strikes on 13 pitches because of course.

Maybe it was so easy for Holland because Dozier finally came through in a big way. Some might argue it was garbage time, but a two-run lead seemed tenuous with the way the Royals had tiptoed around trouble all weekend. When he crushed this home run…

…it sure seemed like the Royals had put the game and the series away. And it was really nice to see Dozier do that. Hopefully it’s the start of something big for him. It ended up a really good weekend.

The Kids Stay Alright

I’ve spent a lot of time wondering about the offensive development changes the Royals made before the 2020 season. We never got to see how that played out. And it’s playing out, I’d say, pretty well. This is from before the weekend, but it’s pretty easy to see the results are there.

David Lesky @DBLesky

The #Royals overhauled their offensive development before the 2020 season and we never got to see the minor league results. Across their four affiliates so far, they’re averaging 5.6 runs per game. Their ranks in runs scored by league: OMA - 7/20 NWA - 2/10 QC - 1/12 COL - 4/12

And then last night was a lot of fun watching Northwest Arkansas run up the score because of who was doing it. Bobby Witt, Jr., Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez went back-to-back-to-back in the third and then Witt added a second home run in the fourth. Then he added a third in the eighth. The organization is winning at all levels and scoring runs to potentially match some of the potent pitching coming through as well. While it seems like a bit of a grind at times at the big league level, things definitely look good on the farm.

What’s Up Next?

The Royals return home and get two against the Pirates, who were playing pretty well when the Royals were in Pittsburgh at the end of April but now have lost 10 of their last 13 games and it doesn’t look like the Royals will see either of their two good starters. Then the Twins come in for four, which will likely be a better fight, but the Royals have a chance to have a big week and get back above .500 at home in front of full capacity for the first time in two years.