Weekend in Review: Another Series Loss

The Royals couldn't win more than one, but at least they won one?

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Mercifully, the home schedule in June came to an end. They won their final game of the month in May at home and were sitting at 19-12 in Kauffman Stadium. One month later, they’re 20-24 at home. That’s…awful. But at least this weekend they were able to get their first home win of the month to snap a pretty horrific stretch of baseball in front of the home crowd. And, of course, it came against baseball’s best team because why woudn’t it? At six games under .500 now, they’ve tied their low water mark for the season. They were 8-14 and 38-44. Now they’re 39-45 with 78 games to go.

Nothing we’ve discussed has changed except for now they have a few fewer games to play to make up the ground. The reality is that they are likely on the outside looking in at the end of the season. Without a crystal ball at my disposal, I can say that the month of June feels like the reason why that will be the case, and particularly their work at home. That said, I’ll continue to beat the drum that they still have three games left against Boston, seven against Cleveland, six against Los Angeles, six against Minnesota, seven against Seattle (starting tonight), four against Texas and six against Toronto. They’re only ahead of three teams, but they play almost every team ahead of them in the Wild Card standings, so they still have a lot of control.

There are now 13 games left until the break. They’re 12 games into a 25-game stretch that I said (and still believe) determines their direction. They’re 5-7 in that 12-game stretch, which seems better than they are because they started 4-0. This week in Seattle is their biggest series of the year to date. They really need to go 8-5 to finish out their pre-break schedule. Does this team have an 8-5 stretch in them? My gut feeling is no, but the whole sport is littered with teams looking like they were dead to rights and then waking up and going on crazy runs. So while I’m not going to be clearing my October schedule or anything, I’m not quite willing to completely say it’s over. Though I’m close.

The Games

Friday - Dodgers 5, Royals 4: A Glimmer of Hope Dashed

Noah Cameron was greeted by Shohei Ohtani the way that Ohtani greets a lot of pitchers. On the fourth pitch of the game, he threw a changeup that stayed up and Ohtani hit it 429 feet into the fountains. At 1-0 Dodgers, the game was over. But it wasn’t! The Royals, who have obviously had a horrible run at home, actually showed some fight against Dustin May. And they did it in a way that had been a problem for them all season long.

I was on my weekly radio hit in Lawrence on Friday and I mentioned that if the Royals get a couple guys on in the first inning and don’t score, whatever the over/under is for the Royals, bet the under. It felt like if they had an opportunity early and didn’t cash in, they weren’t going to score that game, at least not until late when the game was mostly out of hand. So Jonathan India strikes out swinging and Bobby Witt Jr. hit a line drive to right and there were two outs. But Maikel Garcia and Vinnie Pasquantino walked. Here we go. This was the perfect situation to not come through and set up another one of those games.

But Salvador Perez did come through. He hit a hard line drive to left to score Garcia and he and Pasquantino got to second and third respectively on a throwing error. It set up Jac Caglianone to break out at home for really the first time. He started off strong by taking two pitches for balls. Then he took a sweeper at the bottom of the zone for a strike. That’s a pitch he could have crushed, but if he was looking fastball or something, I have no issue taking it. He got another sweeper really middle-middle and fouled it off. Then he got a fastball in the middle third and at the top of the zone and he hit it 53.6 MPH back to the pitcher to end the inning.

But hey, at least the game wasn’t over anymore! With two outs in the second, Cameron walked Tommy Edman and then gave up a two-run homer to dead center by Max Muncy, who has been terrible against lefties all year. The game was over again. But wait!

John Rave got things started in the bottom of the second with a walk and a stolen base. Then Kyle Isbel hit a double to right-center field that absolutely should have been caught, but it wasn’t, so it was a double. Okay, that’s some signs of life! It’s now 3-2 Dodgers and the game was still over, but at least they were showing a little fight after scoring just one run the whole previous series against the Rays. When India struck out, I figured that was that, but Witt proved me wrong.

May had started four of the first 10 hitters off with a sweeper. None were that fat, but I wonder if Witt went to the plate with that in mind. It could also be that it was a relatively easy adjustment for Witt off the fastball, but either way, he was ready for the sweeper in that spot to give the Royals a 4-3 lead. An actual lead!

It stayed 4-3 until the fifth when Cameron walked the number nine hitter, which even against a lineup this good is bad. It’s worse when Ohtani is next. And he gave up a run-scoring triple to tie the game. Steven Cruz came in and I thought he made a good pitch to Mookie Betts. Betts hit it fairly softly up the middle to drive in the fifth run and neither team touched home plate again. It was another loss.

The end of the game was particularly brutal. Tanner Scott came in to get the save. His inning started with a borderline called third strike on Witt. You can see pitch six below. Technically, I think that’s a strike if they could challenge it and did, so I am not nearly as up in arms about that as I was in the moment.

But then Garcia singled. And Pasquantino walked. And Perez hit a blooper to right that fell, but didn’t score a run. Now the bases were loaded with one out for Caglianone. At this point, Scott had thrown 15 pitches. Nothing was on the lefty batter’s box side of the plate. This is everything from Friday night:

If you’re Caglianone, you have to be looking on the outer third and you have to be looking to take the ball that way. If you get a pitch you can yank, adjust, but otherwise, the thought has to be left-center knowing all of this. That top yellow dot is the pitch he swung at and he took a swing that was meant to hit a ball to the moon. And he hit a 75.3 MPH grounder to second. That’s a lack of awareness regarding the pitcher, the situation and basically everything else. I actually don’t hate swinging at that pitch. If he’s got the mindset of going with the pitch, he can flip that to left and at least get the tying run home. But the approach for him there was brutal and it ended the game.

I do think that there were a couple of notable occurrences. For one, Angel Zerpa was filthy. I will never be a fan of his, but when he’s on, he’s legitimately good. Cruz looked good other than allowing his inherited runner to score, but honestly, facing the 2-3-4 of the Dodgers with a runner on third and nobody out was likely to end with the same result regardless. And finally, Lucas Erceg pitched and while he did walk a batter, it was the best he’s looked since mid-May, so that’s something.

Saturday - Royals 9, Dodgers 5: A Home Win and Lots of Runs?

I don’t even know where to start with this one. The Royals were subjected to an Ohtani “rehab” start in this one. And he looked pretty darn good. While he did allow a single to Witt and he walked Garcia, he got Pasquantino to hit into a double play. It sure felt like more of the same after the way the game ended on Friday night. It was more of the same in the second as the Royals went 1-2-3 with Ohtani looking really good.

But in the third, Ohtani was out and Ben Casparius was in. Drew Waters started the inning with a walk, but of course he was caught stealing. With two outs, India singled and Witt doubled to right. With two outs and two strikes, I was worried the inning was over. Thankfully, Casparius hung a sweeper to Maikel Garcia and he hit it 396 feet off the wall to drive in two. Now, he thought it was a home run and the way the ball got away, he absolutely should have been on third if he had been running out of the box. So he stole third for good measure. But he was left there.

It was still 2-0 in the fifth when Isbel singled to center and got to second on an error. The Royals capitalized. India singled to score him. Witt singled to get to second. After Garcia lined out to right on a really nice swing, Pasquantino was up in a spot that he had struggled in all year. He looked like he was trying to hit a ball a mile on the first pitch, whiffing on a four-seamer that was a strike but not a strike you want to swing at. And then he did hit the ball a mile.

A real-life three-run homer! I suppose they’ve hit a few recently, so I should probably stop with that, but that’s still only four all year and Pasquantino’s second of the year, following up on his Opening Day shot.

At this point, it’s 6-0 and the Royals are cruising. Seth Lugo had great results with 5.2 shutout innings, but I’d say he was more good than great. He did walk five, though he also struck out eight. The Dodgers lineup is just so relentless that unless you’re absolutely “on” that day, it’s just going to be tough to go more than six innings with how they pile up the pitches on you.

Lugo led with the cutter in this one, which I don’t remember ever happening before (that doesn’t mean it hasn’t happened). He threw 24 cutters, 23 curves, 20 fastballs and 11 sinkers. Then he threw six other pitches. His slow curve was used to perfection. He got 13 whiffs on 43 swings, which is great. He got 20 called strikes, which is great. He did give up 17 foul balls, which is less great, but he handled an excellent lineup. If that was an audition for him with that particular team, I can’t imagine they weren’t impressed with what they saw.

The offense continued with Pasquantino driving in two more in the seventh to give him five RBIs on the day and Perez drove in him to make it 9-1 (Freddie Freeman homered for the Dodgers).

Sam Long made it interesting in the ninth, giving up four runs to make it 9-5, but the game was never really in doubt. Finally a laugher, though it did get a little too close in the ninth.

It’s pretty easy to see how that formula can work. India, Witt, Garcia and Pasquantino combined to go 11 for 17 with a walk, a home run, four doubles, eight runs scored and eight RBIs. India and Witt both had four hits. The 5-9 in the lineup went 3 for 22 with five strikeouts (three from Caglianone), a walk and a run scored. You need the whole lineup to hit, but when the top does what they did, it doesn’t matter.

Sunday - Dodgers 5, Royals 1: Back to Reality

It sure seemed like they turned a corner on Saturday when this one started with a single by India, a wild pitch and then a run-scoring double by Witt. But then it was back to what we’ve seen way too many times this year. Garcia got Witt to third on a ball that I’m convinced is a hit if it doesn’t hit the mound. But Pasquantino popped up and Perez struck out and the Royals didn’t score again. Not only did they not score again. They only got one runner past first base the rest of the game.

There isn’t much to say here. Kris Bubic struggled early and gave up a home run to Enrique Hernandez on a 1-2 pitch that I have zero problem with. It was a changeup down. Yes, it was in the middle, but there have been 2,891 changeups thrown in that spot this season. This was the eighth home run allowed. Opponents are hitting .173 on changeups in that spot. It was the eighth homer, but there have also been just 19 doubles and three triples. It is not a pitch that should be hit out. That’s credit to Hernandez. It doesn’t change the result, but if Bubic is in that spot again againt the Diamondbacks on Friday and he throws that exact pitch, I’m betting it’s a different result.

He really settled in, but he had thrown so many pitches in the first two innings that he only made it through five. The bullpen wasn’t good, but they weren’t just endlessly beaten. Cruz gave up a home run and then a soft double to the leadoff batter the next inning. Zerpa gave up a hard double to Muncy to score that run and then an RBI single on a sinker in the middle to give up his own run. And that was that. Taylor Clarke and Sam Long worked scoreless innings, but the offense returned to lifelessness, so it didn’t really matter what the bullpen did.

Player of the Week

You’d probably be surprised to know that four different royals had at least 25 plate appearances and an average or better wRC+. I guess they did hit in two of the six games they played, so maybe you wouldn’t be that surprised. Still, Witt was at 107, Garcia at 128, India at 137 and Pasquantino at 145. Some others of note included Perez at 40, Waters at -8, Nick Loftin at -71 and Caglianone checked in at -72 for the week. On the pitching side, Bubic had a solid enough week, though took two losses. Otherwise, nothing stood out there, so I guess Pasquantino gets it this week for his heroics on Saturday. I will say that Garcia played some outstanding defense this week at third, so that bridged the gap some in the offensive numbers, but a five RBI game in a week that included a series where they scored just one run is pretty noteworthy.

The Week Ahead

The Royals head West for their first extended trip to the Pacific Time Zone. They’ll start the week with the Mariners, who were 28-20 on May 21 and 3.5 games up in the American League West. Today, they’re 43-40 and 6.5 games back. That’s 10 games lost in 35 games, which says as much about the Astros as it does about them, but they just haven’t been especially good since that quick start. That’s something we’ve seen from the Mariners over the years. What we haven’t seen is that they can hit. They rank sixth in baseball in wRC+ and they’ve continued to hit since they started losing. Of course, Cal Raleigh is a big part of them and one of the biggest stories in baseball. He has 32 homers as a primary catcher, though he hasn’t hit one in a week, so maybe he’s coming back to earth.

Surprisingly, it’s been their pitching that’s been a problem. They’re not bad, but they rank 16th in baseball in ERA and their starters are just 17th. That’s supposed to be the backbone of their team. But they’ve dealt with injuries and some ineffectiveness that’s been surprising. Their bullpen has been pretty good. Andres Muñoz has been filthy. Matt Brash has been amazing since he’s been back. Eduard Bazardo has been really good. Gabe Speier has been really good. Carlos Vargas has been solid. They’re good and they’re deep in the bullpen.

Here are the projected pitching matchups for the series:

• Monday: RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP George Kirby

• Tuesday: RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Emerson Hancock

• Wednesday: LHP Noah Cameron vs. RHP Logan Gilbert

• Thursday: RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Bryan Woo

Just a quick note that all these games are night games, so if you like to get to sleep early, check in here to read about the game the next day.

And after leaving Seattle, the Royals head to Arizona. The Diamondbacks are currently a game under .500 and one of the more disappointing teams in baseball. They looked like they were going to be great on paper with the signing of Corbin Burnes, but he’s now out for the year and much of next year. Gabriel Moreno, their young catcher, is hurt. Corbin Carroll, their star outfielder, is hurt. Their two best relievers, AJ Puk and Justin Martinez, are hurt. Zac Gallen has been bad. Eduardo Rodriguez has been bad. Brandon Pfaadt has been bad. The offense has scored runs with big years from Ketel Marte, Pavin Smith, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suarez, but they’ve just dealt with so many injuries. They’re still a good team, I think, but they just can’t get it going.