Weekend in Review: Motown Winning, Some Scouting Thoughts and What's Up Next
It doesn't hurt to face a struggling team, but it definitely helps when the Royals can actually beat them.
Watching a series between two teams simply playing out the string in September is certainly an experience. In some ways, these games are kind of the most fun. They’re kind of like spring training in that they don’t mean much of anything, but with emphasis on them because they actually do mean something to all of the players. If nothing else, there’s a need to at least boost individual stats for a number of reasons. It’s also kind of nice to see a team that’s playing on the same level as the Royals because it’s a little bit more of an even battle, which is nice to see. I’ll get to this with what’s up next, but it goes beyond this week. The Royals will play a HUGE role in who wins the American League Central over the final month of the season. They’re done with the White Sox, but six of their final 27 games are against the Twins and nine are against the Guardians.
So when it’s all said and done, the Royals can basically single-handedly decide if the Twins and/or Guardians even have a shot. Those are also the two teams who have played the Royals the best in the division, so they both may be licking their lips. But as silly as I think it can sound when the broadcast tries to make this a thing, getting the chance to play in these games that actually matter is a good thing for a team that has become very, very young. It’s not their pennant race, but being a key in something as tight as the top of the AL Central is experience these young players can look back on in future seasons when they’re hopefully the ones in the position the Twins and Guardians are right now.
Scout’s Honor
I had the chance to chat with a scout who was in attendance for the games on Tuesday through Thursday of last week and saw the Columbia Fireflies play. As part of Baseball America’s organizational rankings, there was talk from some that Columbia was the worst team in the minors. And while they had a very tough time in the season’s first half, they’ve been much better in the second half with a winning record. That’s largely due to the addition of Frank Mozzicato, Ben Kudrna and Shane Panzini, all 2021 draft picks and then the addition of Gavin Cross and Cayden Wallace, the top two picks from 2022. There were some others as well, but I think the inclusion of those five make it tough for them to be the worst or least talented team out there. Anyway, the scout I spoke with had the chance to see both Mozzicato and Kudrna pitch and had some good things to say. He also had some thoughts on the hitters.
On Mozzicato
The first thing he said to me via text is “MOZZICATO IS A DUDE!” If you’re unfamiliar with scouting language, this isn’t it, but I think you can get the idea that he seems Mozzicato as a difference maker. He loved the way the fastball came out of his hand and said his curve might have been a 70 on Wednesday night when he saw him. There are some Max Fried comparisons out there, but he said the way the fastball exploded out of Mozzicato’s hand reminded him a little of Shane McClanahan. I don’t think I necessarily see that, but I think what he meant was just how it kind of comes at you quickly. I asked him about the walks, which have remained an issue and he believes as his mechanics refine, the control will work itself out enough. How much depends on a few things, but he was bullish.
On Kudrna
He didn’t see Kudrna at his best, but that’s almost better sometimes. He said the biggest thing from Kudrna was he looked like he was just tired. But there are positives to a pitcher being tired and only walking two hitters in five innings while keeping his team in the game like Kudrna did. He said it was tough to see much because Kudrna looked like a guy just gutting it out to get through five, but really liked the competitiveness.
On Cross
He called the swing a “ten-time All Star swing” and thought in the small sample he saw that some of the contact questions were a little overrated. He was very impressed with his quick swing and believes it might take some tweaks to access big power, but he could see a couple 28-35 home run seasons with him settling in the low-20s as a higher average bat. He was a little disappointed that Cross walked six times in the three games because he didn’t get to see him swing the bat as much, but he felt that at least two of the walks were on his plate discipline and not simply bad pitching. Cross wasn’t really tested in center field, but he looked the part. Maybe he’s not quite fast enough to stick there in Kauffman Stadium, but he won’t hurt you. He compared it to Max Kepler’s ability to play center.
On Wallace
He was less bullish on Wallace, but he also wondered if he was looking for something to complain about. Wallace had a very nice three days and the report was that the bat and swings are both built to crush baseballs. He didn’t have any contact issues in the three games with no strikeouts and he thought maybe two whiffs total, but I looked and it was only one. But he did say he could see how there could be contact issues because his swing got long at times. He did say that Wallace was more athletic defensively than he expected.
The Rest
He had a chance to see Jonatan Bernal throw seven shutout innings and walk nobody and thought he had a really easy fastball that he could see gaining velocity as he moves up the ladder. He saw a lot to like in Javier Vaz and thinks there could be a really good fourth outfielder in his future. And the biggest thing he said is that Carter Jensen might be a top-50 prospect after next season.
Some good stuff from someone who had a chance to watch them for three straight days.
The Games
Friday - Tigers 5, Royals 4
This one was frustrating. The Royals offense made something out of nothing in the second inning when they got three straight singles and took advantage of a ball kicked by Riley Greene in center field to score two runs quickly off Drew Hutchison, but Daniel Lynch fell apart in the fifth, giving up four runs to a struggling offense on two home runs to the team with the fewest home runs in baseball by a lot. In the box score, it looked like that inning came out of nowhere for Lynch, but it really didn’t.
Lynch was very good for three innings. He threw 34 pitches and gave up just a couple of hits. He worked around them with no issues. But there were even signs in those first three innings with just one strikeout and not a single swing and miss. When he threw 23 pitches in the first inning, including walking Javier Baez, who doesn’t walk, it just sort of felt like trouble was about to follow. And then, sure enough, that fifth inning happened. His overall line was not good, but he did get to four strikeouts on the evening, but it was just another in a fairly disappointing line of starts for him.
I kind of lean with what the Royals are saying about him, though, that he’s wearing down. On one hand, that’s a pretty bad sign because he wore down last season too. On the other hand, it probably isn’t all that surprising. I’ve written about this before, but last year was a full season after no season for Lynch and this year is his first full year back after a full year. He threw 96.1 innings in 2019, zero in 2020 and 125 last year. So it’s really no surprise if he is tiring. And if he is tiring, this chart of his fastballs from that fifth inning is what a tired pitcher’s chart would look like.
Basically everything there is arm side and up. In my opinion, that’s encouraging. It’s not that he’s bad. It’s that he’s tired. We can argue until we’re blue in the face about what kind of conditioning and training young pitchers go through, but the reality is what the reality is and Lynch appears to be exhausted. To the Royals credit, they didn’t immediately roll over. After Salvador Perez was hit by a pitch (and had to leave the game), Michael A. Taylor continued his hot hitting.
It wasn’t majestic, but it tied the game just three batters into the next inning after the Tigers scored four runs. Unfortunately, a leadoff walk from Carlos Hernandez proved Denny Matthews right because a leadoff walk in the late innings of a tight game will always come back to hurt you. The Royals offense didn’t come back immediately and that was the end of that.
Saturday - Royals 12, Tigers 2
There haven’t been many games this year where you felt like they were actually over when they were effectively over. Including this one, the Royals have only won 10 games all season by five or more runs, and even some of them like last week’s 15-7 win in the series finale against the Padres came with some runs late. But this one ended in the fifth when Kyle Isbel launched a grand slam to make the game 9-1 and that allowed everyone to breathe a little easier. It was a fun game. While Jonathan Heasley tied a career-high with seven innings pitched, he was really just okay.
He continued to work to establish his fastball, which I think can be a good pitch, but just isn’t yet. He did get six whiffs on it and only one on any other pitch, but I still would love to see him use his changeup and slider a little more than he has. But with a big lead, he threw strikes and helped to keep the bullpen off the field, which was a good thing. Those kind of starts are important, and since he started the year walking everyone, he actually has a very reasonable 8.3 percent walk rate over his last 13 starts. I wish he was striking more batters out, but I’ll settle for the walks being down for now and hope for that to come with development.
The story in this one was the offense. I mentioned Isbel’s grand slam, but the Royals had four home runs that accounted for nine of their 12 runs and all four were hit by rookies, which you could say was rare.
You know, if something that had never happened before would be considered rare. And they started right away with two outs in the top of the first.
That wasn’t the hardest hit ball or the farthest hit ball, but I really love what I’m seeing from Pratto lately. He is doing a much better job of going with the pitch and that at bat was just another example of his ability to go the other way with some very real power. We’ve seen quite a bit of that from him, and is very encouraging for his future. But Pratto would be overshadowed by his old roommate. Needing one home run to get to 20 and give him a 20 homer and 20 steal season, Bobby Witt Jr. was up with two on and nobody out in the top of the third.
You know, Michael Pineda doesn’t walk many batters, but maybe he would do well to have walked Witt there rather than leave that pitch where he did. Yikes. Pratto didn’t hit his hard that hard. Witt did. It got out in a hurry, gave the Royals a 5-1 lead, which was obviously enough, and gave Witt his coveted 20/20 season. By now, you know all the fun facts about it. He’s the fifth first-year player in MLB history to do it and the second this season, which is sort of fun. He’s the fifth Royals player ever to do it and the first since Jeff Francoeur in 2011. He’s also the 13th rookie in general to do it, and weirdly the second Royal (Carlos Beltran).
If that was all we got on Saturday, it would have been enough, but there was more to come. In the fifth inning, the Royals loaded the bases with three straight singles from Pratto, Taylor and Ryan O’Hearn. With one out, Isbel got to do something no other Royals hitter had done this season.
The launch angle on this was just 18°, which is notable because it’s the second-lowest launch angle on a Royals homer this year. The lowest was actually Vinnie Pasquantino in Comerica Park, so that short wall in right helps some, but that was a rocket off Isbel’s bat and that opened up the game.
But I can’t let you go from this one without another MJ Melendez bomb off a lefty.
Melendez, including his double in the eighth inning yesterday, is now hitting .310/.367/.552 with seven doubles, a triple and four home runs against lefty pitching. That’s incredible.
And just to make sure we cover all our bases here, we got to see Nate Eaton’s first four-hit game of his career and in the end, the Royals had 12 runs with all 12 driven in by the rookies. I know it’s kind of an overplayed trope at this point, but it really is fun to see these young guys do what they’ve done.
Sunday - Royals 3, Tigers 2
Why wouldn’t there be another close game between the Royals and Tigers? In this one, I thought that Max Castillo looked exactly like the type of pitcher who he probably should be right now. You see enough good to understand the allure of why he should probably be starting every fifth game but also rough enough that you can see why teams have wanted him to spend some time in AAA.
He did a great job of getting ahead of hitters. He faced 19 batters and he was 1-2 or 0-2 on 11 of them. But he threw at least three more pitches after getting to two strikes on seven of those 11 hitters. On the plus side, getting to two strikes against hitters is the first step. You can’t get a third strike without getting the first two. On the minus side, figuring out how to get that third strike (or an out) quickly is the hardest final step for a pitcher. And for some, it just never comes. My question with Castillo is whether or not he has the stuff to get it done on a regular basis.
I like what he has out there. I think his fastball can be a weapon. His slider looked nasty at times. His changeup is something that he can use as a big weapon for him. But there were times that his fastball was a bit too hittable, his slider a bit too flat and his changeup a bit too far out of the zone. He threw a lot of changeups, and I thought that might have hurt him some. I would have liked to see him trade five or six of those for a slider because I thought the slider really did look fantastic.
In all, I thought it was a good start for Castillo, but 95 pitches without being able to get through the fifth is something that can only be considered as a building block game for so long. What I love is the same thing we saw from him against the Rays. He gave up a home run to tie the game right after the Royals scored a couple and then came back with two strikeouts. I don’t know if Castillo is a long-term option in the rotation for the Royals, but I’ll say that his two big league starts have intrigued me at the least.
The Royals offense didn’t have what you’d call its best day, at least not on the scoreboard. They did load the bases in the fourth on a single, a Michael Massey hit by pitch and a Drew Waters walk. That led to Nicky Lopez to pick up his first hit of the year with the bases loaded, a bloop single to left to score a run. And then Melendez had a phenomenal plate appearance.
He fouled off pitches he couldn’t do anything with, took a couple that were close and ultimately worked a bases loaded walk to give the Royals their second run. If only their big bats in Witt and Perez could have come through, it would have broken the game open, but they didn’t and it didn’t.
So once Castillo left the game, the bullpen was counted on. If you’re playing one of those games on Twitter where you ruin a story in six words, “Royals bullpen needs to give innings” is certainly one that you could use. Collin Snider came on to get the Royals out of the fifth and he threw one pitch that led to one of the best defensive plays of the year.
Jose Cuas pitched an inning. He walked one and gave up a hit but struck out two.
Amir Garrett went two-thirds of an inning with a walk allowed and a hit batter, but Dylan Coleman came on and got them out of the inning and then pitched another.
After Coleman got them out of the seventh, the Royals had a big chance in the eighth. Lopez drew a one-out walk when Melendez came to the plate, once again against a tough lefty. He put a ball down the left field line pretty much perfectly.
I don’t know what in the world Vance Wilson was thinking there. I’m sure he thought the carom off the wall would make it a tougher play for Victor Reyes, but Reyes played it well and he should have adjusted because Lopez was out by a wide margin. You can say they were forcing the issue, but he has to know the situation. If he holds Lopez up, the Royals have runners on second and third with one out with Witt and Perez coming to the plate. Instead, the Royals had a runner on third with Melendez advancing on the throw and Witt up. Luckily, the rookie came through and drove in the run anyway, but all that did was bail Wilson out.
Thankfully he did and Scott Barlow threw a perfect ninth for the save and to get the Royals the win. The bullpen ended up going 4.1 innings with two hits allowed, two walks and five strikeouts. For the series, the bullpen went 10.1 innings with five hits allowed, three walks, 11 strikeouts and a 0.87 ERA. That’ll work.
The Week Ahead
The Royals come home and get to start playing spoiler as they welcome in the Cleveland Guardians who just put two of their starting pitchers on the IL. That’s not great news, but they’re also their fourth and fifth starters, which aren’t unimportant, but it’s not like they lost Shane Bieber or Triston McKenzie. As it stands right now, the Royals will see both McKenzie and Bieber before getting someone in that series finale on Wednesday afternoon. Maybe it’s Konnor Pilkington or maybe it’s Cody Morris, but we don’t know just yet. At times it’s looked like the Guardians had maybe an actually good offense, but they’re bottom third of the league in runs scored and while they hit for a relatively high average, it’s an offense that can be handled. It’s just a matter of getting through and beating their pitching staff.
After that series, the Royals are off on Thursday before they welcome the Tigers to town. Assuming no changes to their rotation, we’ll see Michael Pineda and Matt Manning again and then will see Tyler Alexander. There won’t be many surprises after seeing each other just this past weekend, but it’s another series where it’s at least a little closer to evenly matched. The Royals have won the season series against the Tigers in six of the last seven years and will have a chance to win it again in this series at home, which means…something, I guess.
People got down on Mozz early because of his draft slot, but he still has the makeup to be a solid pitching prospect. Gotta cut down on the walks though.
David, do you think they'll keep max in the rotation with Grienke back and go 6-man?