Weekend in Review: Payroll Talk, Trading Blowouts and The Week Ahead

The weekend looked lost. Until the offense exploded.

I wrote last week that I wondered a little if the Royals offense was going to break out of its slump with a chance to actually get a day off. I think some people thought that was finding an excuse for a struggling offense, but I stand by the idea that a bunch of guys used to getting a day off every week might have been dragging at the end of a long stretch of games. For the week, the Royals did well, scoring 37 runs in six games. A lot of that was skewed by their outburst yesterday, but they did score five or more in three of the five games before it. I don’t know if it means I was right, but it’s just nice to see them do some damage offensively because it sure felt like things were on the right path before their recent slump.

And for the week, they hit .273/.359/.404. You want to see more power, but they went 19 for 55 with runners in scoring position, which is a .345 average. And they were 12 for 40 for the week before yesterday’s game, so it wasn’t like they bumped that up a huge amount with one win. Hitting is absolutely contagious and the Padres threw out three good starters this weekend, which I’ll get to. The team knocked two of them out early in the game and had the third on the ropes before letting him go. I remain confident in this team’s offense moving forward because I think they have good young talent and the proper instruction to get the most out of it. The pitching is another story and I’ll continue to tell you that I believe Cal Eldred will be relieved of his duties when the season comes to its merciful conclusion. And just to give you a little something to chew on while we wait for this to happen, here are a few candidates I’d like to see:

• Brian Bannister, Giants director of pitching

• Cody Buckel, Guardians pitching strategist

• Dan Haren, Diamondbacks executive

• Mike Harkey, Yankees bullpen coach

• Everett Teaford, White Sox pitching coordinator

There are others, for sure, but that should hold you over.

Future Payrolls, Flexibility and Free Agency

Whether you believe the Royals are ready to take the next step and win in 2023 or not, the way they’ve promoted players over the past few seasons might make this winter the year to make a move (or four) to add some players and some payroll. The reason I say that is because of the current flexibility they have for 2023, 2024 and 2025 in terms of the cost of their roster. As of right now, they have $31.75 million committed to three players (Salvador Perez, Hunter Dozier and Michael A. Taylor) and they have 10 players who will be arbitration eligible. Even if they tender contracts to all 10, I can’t really see that group costing any more than around $40 million. But when thinking about signing free agents, it goes beyond just one year because any difference-maker goes for more than a year in all likelihood. Some key figures on the team will be pre-arbitration. Guys like Kris Bubic, Daniel Lynch, Michael Massey, MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and Drew Waters are all going to cost them team around $700,000 in 2023.

Looking ahead to 2024, they have $29 million in guaranteed money. It’s hard to judge the rest of the numbers because arbitration-eligible players can change with moves, but they look to have eight as of right now. In 2025, only Perez is under contract for $22 million. A few more players will be eligible for arbitration that year and then a similar number will be eligible in 2026 as well. I would anticipate some long-term deals signed between now and then, but the point stands that they have a chance to be pretty inexpensive over the next few seasons before the bulk of their young talent starts to get to their second and third years of arbitration if they don’t reach a deal on an extension. Not only will they have the payroll flexility of young, pre-expensive days of talent but they should have plenty of money to spend. I don’t think they’re going to swim in the deep end, but they could…and maybe should. There is a rich history of teams making a signing potentially a year early, but when the right player is there and the payroll allows it moving forward, it behooves a team to pounce.

What I’m not so sure about is where the fits do lie this winter on the free agent market. But there could be some creativity. Could they go out and sign someone like Josh Bell and move one of the first basemen for pitching? Or should they spend big on the free agent pitching market with a couple of splashes like Carlos Rodon and, I don’t know, Michael Fulmer? Or maybe they can use that flexibility to take on a big contract in a trade like someone such as Madison Bumgarner to get a better return? That may not be the best example because the return they’d want is Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks aren’t going to hamper their return for him if they moved him, but you get the idea. The Royals are in a position where they should be able to spend. Because of the timing of their contracts, the time is now and the 2023/2024 offseason. I don’t believe we know what kind of an owner John Sherman is yet, but I think we’ll have a much better idea in about five months.

The Games

Friday - Padres 13, Royals 5

It wasn’t long ago that it appeared Kris Bubic had turned a corner. Maybe he still has. I never thought he was more than a 4/5 starter and those guys have bad starts, including multiple bad starts in a row. But after not striking out a single batter in his previous start, Bubic came out of the gates rough. He did get the first two outs, but walked the third batter before three straight hits ended up putting the Royals down 3-0 before they even got to the plate. Don’t forget the Royals hadn’t won a single game when they trailed by three or more coming into this.

Which is why it was so surprising when the offense came roaring back against Joe Musgrove. The problem is that it was 6-0 before they started their comeback. Bubic just couldn’t keep the ball out of the middle of the plate. We’ve talked about this before, but there is a difference between being in the zone and throwing good strikes. Bubic was in the zone, but these were not good strikes. These are the locations on the hits he allowed.

The Padres came into the series a struggling offense, but even a struggling offense can get right against that. And it was just such a frustrating night. He got those two outs in the first inning and then gave up three. He had two out and a runner on first in the second when he gave up an RBI double and was bailed out of the inning by a terrible baserunning decision on a hard-hit single. In the third, he got two quick outs before giving up back-to-back home runs. He finally had a 1-2-3 inning in the fourth, but it was too late.

I suppose you could see it as sort of good news because at least there was something you could take away. He pitched well to start innings. It took him 16 total pitches to get the first two outs in the first three innings. But he just couldn’t put the Padres away. That’s so frustrating. A big part of it was that he just couldn’t get swings and misses. He had only three all night on 27 swings. His average exit velocity allowed was 94.8 MPH. And that’s a function of simply being in the middle of the plate too much. I continue to not understand why he shelved the slider in spring training, but he won’t be able to consistently get big leaguers out until he does something different. The positive I’d take away is that he is heady enough that I think he’ll be able to do it.

In a rarity, as I mentioned, the Royals roared back. And it started with a Salvador Perez RBI single in the third before the got four in the bottom of the fourth inning. Pratto had doubled in the second to end a long hitless drought and he came up after Michael A. Taylor reached on an error and hit a towering home run to right field.

That’s a very high fly ball, friends. The 39° launch angle was tied for the fourth highest of any home run by the Royals this season. It felt like it hung up forever, but while 6.6 seconds comes up just short of forever, that’s a long time for a fly ball to be in the air. Following the homer, Drew Waters got his first big league hit, Nicky Lopez followed suit with a hit of his own and they scored on a Melendez sacrifice fly and another RBI single from Perez. With the game 6-5, it felt like the Royals had a chance. But as it feels like they’ve done so much, they didn’t score again.

And to make matters worse, the bullpen did what we’ve seen it do far too often. Collin Snider had a great inning, which was a surprise, but Brad Keller gave up a run (though he was betrayed by his defense on a ball that wasn’t called an error but was absolutely an error) in one-third of an inning before Jose Cuas bailed him out. But Amir Garrett’s run of success ended in a big inning that saw him give up four runs on five hits while getting just one out. The damage was done and when Hunter Dozier gave up a couple runs in an inning of relief in the ninth, it just made the score more lopsided but did nothing to change the result.

It was the 16th time they allowed 10 or more runs in a game, which was the most in the majors at the time. It still is, but it was then too. That’s not a stat you want to be a league leader in, but here we are.

Saturday - Padres 4, Royals 3

This one started a lot better. Daniel Lynch threw a ridiculously quick first inning that got the Royals up against Yu Darvish and after a three-pitch strikeout by Melendez, they just started to attack. Witt walked, Perez singled, O’Hearn was hit by a pitch and Dozier singled to right. It was 1-0 when Pratto, who was a new man after a couple of hits on Friday stepped to the plate.

That’s a really pretty swing. But with runners on second and third and one out, the Royals let Darvish off the hook. It’s tough to say that they let a pitcher off the hook when he gave up three in the first inning, but they absolutely did. And then for the second straight game, they didn’t score again. They had three runs through the first six batters and ended up with those same three runs through 37 batters. They had another chance in the second with runners on first and third and one out for Perez, but he hit a fly ball that was too shallow to score a run and then O’Hearn struck out. At that point, Darvish had thrown 54 pitches through two innings.

He ended up getting through seven on just 48 more. That is what we call a problem.

It wouldn’t have been as big of a problem if not for Lynch kind of going reverse Darvish. He threw those eight pitches in the first, but gave up a two-run homer in the second on a fastball that just didn’t get high enough. In the third is when the trouble was at its worst. He threw 41 pitches in that inning to go from looking like he might be able to get through at least six and maybe seven to maybe not even getting out of the third. He was being hit hard, but he was also done in a bit by his defense. The first hit he allowed was a well placed grounder. The second was a ball to Massey that was originally ruled an error and was later changed to a hit. Two hard singles brought in two more runs. He did walk Josh Bell, but he buckled down after that.

He struck out Wil Myers on three pitches and then ended a long at bat against Jurickson Profar that probably ended on the fastball he wanted to throw Myers in the second inning that ended up a home run.

Lynch ended up giving up two hits over his final 2.2 innings with three strikeouts. One of the hits was an infield single. It was almost like he locked in after giving up the lead in the third. You’d obviously like to see that happen before the lead is gone, but this is still a developmental season. I was a little curious if the Dodgers start stuck with him.

It felt like he left absolutely everything on the field in that one, especially in that final inning when he worked out of a bases loaded and nobody out jam. It’s been a grind for him since. But I saw a lot in this start for him. His six strikeouts and one walk were one of his best ratios of the year. He allows way too many runners for a pitcher with his stuff, but there’s still something to work with here and it won’t surprise me if he takes a big step with a better coaching staff next season.

And I think it’s worth pointing out just how good the bullpen looked. Snider had his second consecutive very good inning and then Carlos Hernandez looked like he found a home in the bullpen. He was out there averaging 98.8 MPH with his fastball, getting whiffs on his curve and looking like a true weapon. He’s always been a little inconsistent, so let’s see how he looks like out of the bullpen next time, but in four outings since they made it semi-official that he was just a short reliever, he’s gone six innings with four hits allowed and just one walk. The strikeouts still fall a bit short with only three, but he does look good.

It was weird, though. It was a one-run game from the third inning until the end, but at no point did I honestly feel like the Royals were going to win and that’s a terrible feeling to have.

Sunday - Royals 15, Padres 7

Yesterday started with the lineup coming out and people expressing their displeasure. Look, I get it. Taylor leading off with a .286 OBP since the break, Dozier hitting fourth with a .237 SLG since the break and Brent Rooker just playing at all didn’t excited people. I think the constant complaining about the lineup gets a little old, especially as someone who typically tweets out the lineup, and the results of this game showed that any one-off lineup is sort of whatever, but I also totally get it.

But after Jonathan Heasley gave up a home run in the top of the first, Taylor started things off strong on the fourth pitch he saw.

Going down to get that pitch is very impressive. He definitely took advantage of the wind, but that’s a heck of a start. After Witt made an out, the Royals just took off. Perez singled, Dozier singled and Rooker singled. Pratto came up and hit a ball that would have been a tough double play but still could have been a double play. Had he not been booking it down the line, the inning would have ended with the Royals up 2-1.

He did book it and beat the throw, which drove in the third run. That allowed for Waters to drive in with a double and Lopez to drive Waters in with a single before a Sebastian Rivero single came right before Taylor ended the inning with an absolute rocket that Myers somehow snagged in left. It was 5-1, with those five runs representing the most runs the Royals have scored in a first inning this year.

I loved that Heasley attacked in the second inning. Working with his fastball up, he got Brandon Drury looking with a really good changeup. Jake Cronenworth flied out on a well-pitched plate appearance. And Myers struck out swinging on another fantastic changeup. He got in a little trouble in the third that wasn’t entirely his doing. Sure he hit the leadoff man, but he got two outs quickly and then got a grounder off the bat of Juan Soto that Lopez just missed. That would have been the third out, so even though he struggled to pick up his teammate, he should have been out of that inning.

With one on and two outs in the fifth, Heasley gave up his second home run of the day to Manny Machado. I’m not sure if either of those would have been home runs on a day the wind wasn’t gusting out to left, which doesn’t mean much because it was, but I thought the second one, at least, was a very good pitch.

I think what we saw from Heasley yesterday was why his fastball can work if he’s able to locate it better. He came into the game allowing a .574 SLG on the fastball, but the Padres went 1 for 8 against it with just one single. He needs to work with it up both in the zone and above it, and I think he did a great job of that. This was what he did yesterday:

And this is what he’d done before yesterday’s game:

It’s not a massive difference, but you can see that he wasn’t getting as much in the middle of the plate with it. I still want to see him use his slider more and his fastball less, but the fastball playing well definitely helped him. And he had his ups and downs with the changeup even though he threw a couple that I thought were as good as any others he’s thrown this season.

The difference in this game and the two before it is they just kept scoring in this one. They picked up a sixth run in the fourth on a Taylor single and then added three more in the sixth with the big hit coming from Perez.

That was huge for him. It’s not that he’s been hitting poorly or anything. He’d hit .300 with a .357 OBP since his last home run before that on August 12, but with just one extra base hit, which is decidedly not anything like him. But getting that home run and on that swing to crush the ball the way he did could be what gets him back on track. And for whatever it’s worth, he’s hit .282/.312/.487 since he came back from the IL, which is honestly not all that far off his 2021 season pace.

And of course, the eighth put the game away. The Royals took advantage of Josh Hader’s struggles. Hader had lost the closer’s role within a very short amount of time of becoming a Padre and showed why yesterday. He gave up a single, double, walk, double and a single before he even got an out. And after he got that out, he gave up a walk and a single before the Padres brought Myers in from left field to finish the inning. And Myers ended up giving up a sacrifice fly to Witt to charge Hader with six runs in one-third of an inning. That’s a disaster.

Even though Luke Weaver had a hard time putting the Padres away with a nine-run cushion, he did get through it to get the Royals a much-needed win.

Some highlights:

• Taylor - 3 for 5, 1 R, 4 RBI

• Perez - 3 for 5, 2 R, 2 RBI

• Dozier - 4 for 6, 3 R, 2 SB

• Waters - 2 for 3, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 BB

• Sebastian Rivero - 2 for 4, 1 BB

The Royals were outscored by just one run in a three-game series that they lost the first game by eight. That’s kind of impressive actually.

What’s Ahead This Week

The days off are really flowing now. They’ll get today off before they go to Chicago to conclude their season series with the floundering White Sox. The Southsiders are now two games under .500 and a run to the postseason for the preseason favorites is becoming increasingly less likely. The Royals have played them well this year with nine wins in 16 games, so for them to turn things around, it’ll have to start against a team they haven’t been able to beat consistently. They have 34 games left and probably need to win 23 of them at a minimum to have a shot. It looks like it’ll be Lucas Giolito, Lance Lynn and Johnny Cueto going for the White Sox.

Then it’ll be on to Detroit for the final time in 2022. The two teams will still match up once more in Kansas City before the end of the season, but the bottom fo the AL Central will see how they draw in Detroit just three more times. The Tigers are playing a little better lately and after falling a few games behind the Royals when the Royals were playing well have seen the gap lessen. They do have Eduardo Rodriguez back in the big leagues, but as of now he isn’t scheduled to pitch over the weekend. Instead, it’ll be Michael Pineda, Drew Hutchison and Matt Manning, which isn’t exactly a Cy Young finalist group, but they’ve had their moments, I suppose.