Weekend in Review: Promising Start, Ugly Finish

The Phillies are good. The Royals got one, but unraveled after that.

Sometimes, when a weekend starts on such a high note, it feels slightly worse when the note goes so low at the end. The truth is that a blowout loss and a one-run loss count the same. Losing two out of three means the same if you have an entertaining and big win to start a series or squeak one out in the third game. It’s two out of three losses, no matter the order and no matter the way it happened. Ultimately, a series loss to a National League team matters just a bit less than if it was against a playoff competitor. We’ve already seen the impact of losing a season series to both Minnesota and Boston.

All that said, what a bummer. The Royals had a shot to take a series against one of the best in the National League and had two of their big three starting. I will get to the games, but you feel like there’s a great chance to take that series with that in place. I do wonder a little bit if the series coming up played a bit of a role in the late-inning issues. The Royals, while trailing by some but not a ton, went to their “B” bullpen (and let’s be real that the “B” bullpen is more of a “C” or “D” bullpen in reality) and that group let things get away from them. Would they have been a little more aggressive if they didn’t have the next four games in three days? We’ll never know, but maybe. I don’t think that’s what happened, but it’s possible.

Here’s the good news about all of it. The Red Sox were swept. Every day that passes without them gaining ground is a day that it becomes more difficult to gain that ground. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The calendar is eventually a problem for everyone chasing. Boston essentially has its own four games in three days since it’s continuing a suspended game at the top of the second. and their series lasts another game on Thursday. Their set is against the Blue Jays, who aren’t good but aren’t horrible. They’re 13-8 in August and 19-16 since the break. They have great players. So, even with a series loss, they’re still in great shape.

Roster Moves Need to Come

The use of the second tier of relievers over the last two games have exposed a couple of them even more than they’d been exposed previously. We already saw Hunter Renfroe go on the IL with a hamstring issue that the team claims isn’t a big deal, but I guess we’ll see. But for one of the first times this year, they don’t have many convenient off days. They’ve got their preferred relievers in Lucas Erceg, Sam Long, John Schreiber, James McArthur and Kris Bubic (though he’s only pitched on less than two days rest once and that was yesterday). But the other three - currently Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Angel Zerpa - will be needed with 11 games in 10 days.

And the problem with Smith and Stratton is that the issues that they’ve danced around all year have come to a head. Smith had a 1.52 ERA in mostly low-leverage situations from mid-April through August 7. We all knew it was a mirage with just 17 strikeouts in 29.2 innings, but he also had a sub-1.00 WHIP. In his last five outings, he’s given up 14 runs on 12 hits in 4.2 innings with three home runs allowed. It’s only five games, but he’s allowed at least two runs in every single one.

Stratton, through July had a 4.41 ERA, which isn’t good, but I made the argument a few times that he was effective more often than not. He was scoreless in 25 of 33 outings, which is pretty par for the course for solid relievers. It’s just that games like May 30, when he gave up four runs in 0.2 innings, or April 27, when he gave up five in one inning, were killing his numbers. Since July 2, he’s been as bad, consistently, as people thought he was early in the year. He’s thrown 17 innings and given up 14 runs on 24 hits with 10 strikeouts and 10 walks. That his ERA isn’t higher than 6.88 is impressive. He’s unusable, though.

Zerpa is concerning as well, though in a different way. Stuff-wise, he’s what I want more of in the bullpen. He’s getting it up there in the high 90s and looks like he could be a huge lefty arm. But after having really solid numbers through July 28, he’s been on a brutal stretch. Since July 29, he’s given up 10 runs on 15 hits over eight innings with eight walks and six strikeouts. He just can’t be trusted.

So what’s the play? Smith and Zerpa both are likely unavailable for either game of the doubleheader. It’s tough to go into a doubleheader with a short bullpen. And even if they were available, do you trust them in a game this important? Stratton is probably available, but does it matter?

I’d make some moves. Smith was a grat signing in that he brought some legitimacy to the Royals plan in the way Seth Lugo did. It just hasn’t worked out like Lugo did on the field. He’s gotta go. I know Stratton has a player option for next year. They have to eat it. And where do I go? Well I start with Jonathan Bowlan, who has been pitching out of the bullpen since July 19 and has made 12 appearances. He’s allowed five runs (three earned) on 13 hits with 11 strikeouts and four walks. The stuff is interesting too. He’s leading with a slider that gets a whiff rate of 32.6 percent, but his fastball is averaging 95.2 MPH and his sinker is 96 MPH. both are getting decent whiffs. Opponents aren’t squaring anything up on him. He needs a shot down the stretch.

I’d go back to Steven Cruz, too. His fastball has averaged 96.9 MPH and has a good whiff rate. His slider and cutter are getting whiffs, too. I’m not sure if he’ll put up numbers in the big leagues or not, but there were times last year, especially when he was opening that he was looking like he could be part of a good bullpen in middle relief.

And then there are a few options. Evan Sisk has great numbers, but sort of falls into the issue Walter Pennington did where the stuff just isn’t great. I think if you’re dumping two lefties, you’re bringing up at least one, so it’s him or Anthony Veneziano, who just doesn’t look the part like he has in the past. I suppose they could try Daniel Lynch IV in the bullpen, but I have a hunch he’d need more time to be effective in making that move. The other name I’ve heard from multiple people just looks so good is Dinelson Lamet. Since joining the organization, he’s gotten whiffs on 73.8 percent of swings against his slider. That’s not a typo. The fastball hasn’t gotten whiffs and neither has the sinker (though opponents have an xBA of .090, xSLG of .097 and xwOBA of .081 on it). He’s an option too.

I spent way too long on the bullpen, but Garrett Hampson could go now too. Aside from some gaffes in center, his defense has been fine. But since the last day his inflated average was over .300, he’s hit .163/.189/.228 for a wRC+ of 8. Again, not a typo. Michael A. Taylor was just put on waivers by the Pirates. I’m not saying he’s the best option, but I’d rather have that defense in there against lefties and his career .251/.307/.427 line against them than whatever it is Hampson does with his bat.

The Games

Friday - Royals 7, Phillies 4: Third Things First

Michael Wacha did what he’s done for so long. He ended up going six innings with just two runs on six hits allowed along with five strikeouts and no walks. That, as they say, will play. His changeup was fantastic, and he led with it. He threw 28 of them in his 94 pitches, got 15 swings and seven whiffs. He got a ton of chases and a ton of weak contact when contact was actually made. But what I was so impressed with from him in this game was his slider. He got swings on four of the five he threw outside the zone. I think so much about how that pitch is new and how good it is. I don’t think I give him enough credit for that.

The game, to me, was won in the third inning. I know what you’re thinking here. Duh. The Royals scored five in the bottom of the third. They did, but the game was allowed to be won in the bottom half because of the work Wacha did in the top half. He started the inning by giving up a double and back-to-back singles. A 1-0 lead became a tie game and the Phillies had runners on first and third with nobody out and the top of the order coming up.

So what did Wacha do? He started Schwarber with a curve at the top of the zone. Wacha does that a lot. He’s thrown 108 first-pitch curves to the now 546 batters he’s faced. What he doesn’t do as much as throw it for strikes at the top of the zone like he did against Schwarber. I would imagine that caught a very prepared hitter off guard. He followed with a four-seamer that was probably a mistake in a bad spot. Then he tried a changeup down and away that Schwarber didn’t bite on before trying it again in nearly the same spot and Schwarber did bite. It was a really fun at bat. That followed with a very clear attempt at a grounder from Trea Turner, which he got to end the threat.

By the time the Phillies came to bat in the top of the fourth and Wacha gave up a run after a double and two outs, it didn’t really matter all that much because the offense had a monster bottom half of the third.

Those are the exit velocities, in reverse, of the first six hitters in the third inning. The second time through against Taijuan Walker was very good to the Royals. It’s a shame Bobby Witt Jr. didn’t lift that 114.6 MPH groundout because that could have been insane. But still, six batters, five balls hit 99.1 MPH or harder and five runs were all the Royals needed.

The first run of the inning came in from Vinnie Pasquantino’s 96th RBI of the season, but the next two came on a ridiculous bomb from Salvador Perez.

When he gets into one, boy is it fun. MJ Melendez followed with a single and then Renfroe hit a line drive of his own.

The seventh run came home after a Renfroe walk and a Paul DeJong double and the Royals were up 7-2. Bubic did give up a couple in the eighth, which led to Lucas Erceg being needed in the ninth for the save, but even a leadoff double didn’t deter him and he picked up his 10th scoreless outings since joining the Royals to secure a big win on a night when the Guardians, Twins and Red Sox all lost.

Saturday - Phillies 11, Royals 2: Sloppy Baseball is Never the Answer

I’ve got a lot to come on a huge week ahead for the Royals, so this is where I’m going to save some space on words. This was an ugly game. The Royals did a lot of things poorly and were bit pretty hard by bad luck as well. I said this on Twitter, but Brady Singer had the rare game of both not pitching well and deserving better.

His sixth inning that turned a 2-1 game into a 5-1 game started with a popup that dropped between Michael Massey and Renfroe, got worse with a ground ball that hit off the lip of the infield that would have been a double play and got way worse with a home run allowed to JT Realmuto.

The bullpen, unsurprisingly, made it worse. Stratton gave up three runs in an inning. Will Smith gave up two in an inning. Zerpa gave up one in an inning. Freddy Fermin’s two RBIs weren’t enough to cover that. It was a bad game that honestly probably isn’t even worth this much digital ink, but I’m here to cover it all, so that’s what I’m doing.

Sunday - Phillies 11, Royals 3: Kind of the Same as Saturday but with Homers

Okay, this one wasn’t a replay. Infield hits were a killer for the Royals. Seth Lugo, who did not pitch well, also pitched better than the line would indicate. Yes, he gave up a career-high 11 hits, but five of them were infield hits. You don’t see that every day. His third inning was particularly brutal with two infield hits, a bunt single and an RBI groundout. It was one of those innings and one of those games where you just kind of throw your hands up.

It’s kind of funny that Lugo had a nice start his last time out, but the stuff looked like it was backing up in the way stuff backs up when a pitcher is fatigued. In this start when he allowed six runs on 11 hits in 5.1 innings, the stuff wasn’t bad. It pretty well matched his season totals. But there were signs of fatigue. I can’t say for certain that they were, but things like inconsistent break on pitches and spin rates could indicate some mechanical issues that generally come with wearing down a bit. Location-wise, the heat map was a little positive and a little negative.

On one hand, that’s down and on the edge. On the other hand, that’s a lot of pitches in one general spot. Lugo is usually so much better at moving the ball around the zone than this. But, for a second straight day, it was a three-run sixth that was aided some by poor defense that ended up giving the starter a worse line than you’d like to see. In that sixth inning, Lugo gave up a clean single, but then the fifth infield hit of the day and a soft double to right-center. Bubic came in and allowed a single to right that should have been one run, but it was two because of an error and then got a double play.

After that, Zerpa had a scoreless outing, but walked three and Smith gave up five runs in his one inning of work. On the bright side, Garrett Hampson did pitch a scoreless ninth, so there’s that. It felt like the same game in a lot of ways. The only different was three home runs.

The first, from Witt was very impressive.

I mean that’s a blast.

The second, from Maikel Garcia, was a bit surprising. He was one of just five qualified hitters without a home run since the break coming into the day.

So for that to go as far as it did on that pitch is just a reminder that there is absolutely more power in that bat.

The third and final, from Melendez, was his third excellent swing of the day.

I’ll continue to update this as it’s worth updating. He’s now hitting .279/.333/.545 with 11 doubles and 9 home runs in 156 plate appearances since June 14. This is the second straight year he’s done this. If they’re going to count on Melendez next year, they’re going to need to find a way to convince him it’s midseason in April.

The big issue in this game is that the Royals couldn’t do what they’ve done all season long. They just couldn’t move runners. They were 0 for 11 with runners in scoring position. Some different work in those situations and maybe the bullpen is utilized differently and maybe this is a different story, but they didn’t get hits, the bullpen was used the way it was, and they were blown out for a second straight day.

Player of the Week

This has been pretty difficult lately. I’ve wanted to not give it to Witt, but ultimately had to. Even with his 2 for 4 day yesterday, he “only” hit .280/.308/.480 with the home run. There were really two players who had big weeks, and they both only played in four of the six games - Massey and Renfroe. Massey hit .375/.412/.500 for a 155 wRC+ in 17 plate appearances. That was good. But Renfroe is the guy. He hit .417/.533/.667 with a home run, four runs, 3 RBIs and three walks in 15 plate appearances. It’s a real bummer he’s out for a bit because of how he’s been hitting for awhile now.

The Week Ahead

This weekend felt big. It doesn’t get bigger than the next four games in three days. I’m not entirely sure why they chose to push this doubleheader from the day after the initial rainout into a week where the Royals already had no off day, but they did, so here we are. It all starts with a doubleheader today, and boy is this a MASSIVE series. Let’s start with the matchups:

• Monday, Game 1: LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Nick Sandlin (LHP Joey Cantillo likely bulk)

• Monday, Game 2: RHP Alec Marsh vs. LHP Logan Allen

• Tuesday: RHP Michael Lorenzen vs. RHP Gavin Williams

• Wednesday: RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Tanner Bibee

If you call Cantillo the main pitcher, with Allen going in the second game, the Royals will see their third and fourth consecutive lefty. Cantillo had made four big league starts and has an ERA of 8.47 in 17 innings. That is decidedly not good. His four-seamer has been absolutely crushed, but the rest of his pitches have been very good for him in the big leagues. In the minors, the fastball hasn’t been as bad, but it’s been bad. The rest have been good there too. If the Royals can get to his fastball, they’ll be in great shape. If they can’t, it could be a long game one and they’ll have to hope Ragans pitches well.

In game two, Allen is going to get the call back to the big league club. The Royals handled him without much issue in Kansas City in late June and he’s struggled quite a bit. That isn’t a huge surprise given that he was demoted. The Royals have gotten to him in three of his four career starts against them, so you feel good about it, but they have had their issues with lefties. He’s another who just can’t win with his fastball. I guess the moral of the story here is that if the Royals go fastball hunting, they could have a good day today. Marsh is getting a shot as the 27th man and has been outstanding in AAA, allowing three runs on eight hits in 19 inning with 25 strikeouts and six walks. He’s looked very good. It’s a big opportunity for him to maybe stick in the bullpen after this start, or at least a few days after it.

They’ll end the series with two tough righties. Bibee had a tough start to the season, but has been great since early May with a 2.86 ERA in 97.2 innings. His slider is nasty. His changeup is nasty. His curve has been excellent. It’ll be a tough sled for the offense. Williams hasn’t been great since coming back from the IL in his 10 starts with 50 hits allowed in 47.1 innings. I’m not sure of the why, but he went from throwing a slider that he allowed a .157 average and .241 SLG against last year 22.1 percent of the time to throwing it 9.6 percent of the time. His velocity is way up on the fastball, but I wonder if there’s still something bothering him that’s impacting his pitch mix. Hopefully the Royals can take advantage with their two Michaels.

You’re looking for a split here because four-game series on the road are especially difficult. Everything I’ve said about the calendar with the Red Sox and their deficit is true for the Guardians against the Royals, though. Time is starting to run out on making up ground. Three games in 32 games is doable. Three games in 28 games is also doable, but it’s just a bit more difficult. If they can somehow grab three games, they can cut the division deficit to one game and clinch the season series against Cleveland, which makes that series in Kansas City next week even more important than this one.

But before they get to that series, they have to play another four-game set against Houston. They’re currently coming off a tough series in Baltimore, but they bounced back from their brutal start nicely and now hold a decent lead in their division. They were down 10 games at one point. Their starting rotation has gotten healthy. Their bullpen is solid. They can hit, even without Kyle Tucker. As of right now, it looks like they’re set to see Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, Yusei Kikuchi and Ronel Blanco. That’s a tough stretch with two more lefties. The toughest part of The Gauntlet™ is this week.