Weekend in Review: Strong Defense, a Series Loss, Player of the Week and What's Next

The Royals dropped a series they should have won. Let's hope that doesn't bite them later.

Sequencing, man. I know I’ve said this before, but I’m going to repeat myself, I guess. I wrote on Friday morning that I’d probably be satisfied with taking a game in this series. The Tigers aren’t great, but they’re good. It’s tough to win on the road and the Royals have had trouble both with this particular opponent and in that particular location. But when they win the first game in what became a laugher and then led the second game into the late innings, winning one of three became a disappointment. It’s just funny how that works.

Does losing a road series to a fairly evenly matched opponent make you a bad team? Of course not. But it’s very easy to look at this and wonder if the Royals actually do measure up with the rest of the division. They’ve now lost two of three to the relevant-again Twins and two of three to the Tigers. As we sit here before action on Monday, April 29, there are four AL Central teams over .500. The Royals are the second-best of them by record but have lost a series to the two behind them. It’s a long season and they’ll get 10 more shots at the Twins and Tigers as well as 13 against the Guardians. Even if they go 7-3 against both the T teams and 8-5 against Cleveland, by starting 2-4 against the main competition, it feels like they’ve dug a hole. Sequencing.

The Defense is Incredible

I generally like to focus on something positive here, but when things are going well overall, I certainly do. And right now, the Royals defense is pretty much the best in baseball. By Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), they lead all of baseball with 23. They’re fifth in Outs Above Average (OAA) and first in Fangraphs Def rating. And unlike last season where the Royals ranked highly in the last two but poorly in DRS, they’re doing well everywhere. This year’s teams that seem to have an odd rating are the Giants (-2 DRS, 11 OAA, 9.1 Def), Brewers (0 DRS, 10 OAA, 6.8 Def) and Twins (-11 DRS, 3 OAA, 5.4 Def). But the Royals rank well in all of them.

It’s easy to see why. They make the great plays as evidenced by Kyle Isbel’s catch the other day in the rain and then Adam Frazier’s on Friday (it’s below, don’t worry). But they also make the routine plays. And they do it both infield and outfield. Here is a list of individual DRS numbers:

Bobby Witt Jr., SS - 6
Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B - 4
Salvador Perez, C - 3
Adam Frazier, RF - 3
Kyle Isbel, CF - 3
Adam Frazier, 2B - 2
Freddy Fermin, C - 2
MJ Melendez, LF - 2
Nick Loftin, 2B - 2
Michael Wacha, P - 1
Garrett Hampson, 2B - 1
Cole Ragans, P - 1
Alec Marsh, P - 1
Michael Massey, 2B - 1

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They have four players with a negative DRS and they are Hunter Renfroe in right, Dairon Blanco in right, Nelson Velazuez in left and Loftin at first base. He somehow is at -2 DRS in 2.1 innings there. Well, I guess if you remember the inning, you know how.

But the point here isn’t to just give you a boring list. It’s to show that (basically) everyone is contributing defensively. There are a lot of 0s in that list as well, which is what you’d expect. They’re fine. I think the two biggest surprises for me so far are Perez and his defense behind the plate. You may or may not know how I feel about framing. I hate that it’s part of the game. A strike is a strike. But it is part of the game and Perez has been exceptionally bad at it over the years. At least to start this season, he’s not only been better; he’s actually been good. Among catchers with 150+ innings, he ranks eighth in baseball in framing.

The infield defense is air tight. The outfield with Isbel and the surprising improvement of Melendez has been good too. The crazy thing is that Renfroe has actually looked really good out there most of the time as well. He’s slow, so he’s not going to get to as much, but he’s made some really nice catches the last few days and obviously has a cannon for an arm. I worry a fair amount about the lack of strikeouts from the pitching staff, but the defense makes me worry just a little bit less.

The Games

Friday - Royals 8, Tigers 0

A noon start, local time, on a Friday is a little bit odd, but the NFL Draft is in Detroit, so they needed to get this game in before the crowds descended on the area. And so the game started early. In the end, it was nice to be talking and thinking about a Royals victory before the work day was even over. The game itself, though, was anything but relaxing. A sacrifice fly in the top of the third gave the game its only run until the ninth inning, so it was trending toward yet another photo finish between these two teams.

So it was a pitcher’s duel for most of the day, with Seth Lugo getting the better of Reese Olson. Both starters went seven and gave up three hits, but Lugo ended up striking out nine with two walks while Olson struck out eight with three walks and gave up the run in the third. Boy was Lugo good. I’m not sure if this is inherently good or not, but he threw eight different pitches throughout the game - a four-seamer, sinker, curve, slider, slurve, changeup, sweeper and a cutter. He threw all of them at least five times. And what’s crazy to think about is that Lugo also changes speeds on his sinker and four-seamer, so it probably felt like 10 or 11 different pitches to Tigers hitters. But seriously, just look at this.

Everything was working for him. He got at least one whiff on six of the eight different pitches. His curve was the best of the bunch for him, but it was really nice to see him bounce back from a tough start against the Orioles. I don’t want to just gloss over his performance, but there isn’t much to say other than that he’s been way more than I would have expected, and maybe that’s on me.

I also was a little worried about his velocity early in the season, but it appears to not really be much of an issue for him now. Yes, the velocity is still down, but it appears to be climbing. Whether its reached its apex yet is unknown obviously, but he has done a really nice job, as I said, of changing speeds. But I can’t write about this game without the amazing play by Frazier.

Holy wow. When the lineup came out, there was the usual bellyaching over it, which I think you all know I don’t totally get. But Frazier in right field was met with what I believe to be the appropriate amount of cynicism. He was able to scale the wall to make an amazing catch and throw to first to double the runner off. That was a heck of a play.

The top of the ninth took the stress of the game away and allowed for Will Smith to actually pitch with an eight-run lead. It was such an interesting inning and one that we’ve kind of grown accustomed to with the Royals this year as it was their fourth seven-run inning of the year. Two singles, by Perez and Renfroe, set it up to lead off. Then Garrett Hampson continued to show that last year was a fluke offensively with a strikeout. And then it got fun.

Tyler Holton walked Nelson Velazquez and then hit the next two hitters. Then Maikel Garcia singled, Bobby Witt Jr. tripled, Pasquantino hit a sacrifice fly and that was seven runs to make it an 8-0 game. And Smith wouldn’t even give any of it back for the win to start the series. Since getting pulled in that game against the White Sox back on April 5, Smith has thrown in seven games, including Sunday, and given up runs in two of them without a walk. He was terrible against Baltimore that night, but I wonder if the Royals are seeing progress. Maybe!

Saturday - Tigers 6, Royals 5

The Royals had a 3-1 lead in this one into the seventh inning after Brady Singer got through five and Angel Zerpa was very good for one. Then Chris Stratton entered. By the time he exited, the score was 6-3. I could go into detail here, but I’d really rather talk about the discourse online for this one. There may be a point where you feel attacked by me here, and if that’s the case, well, I’m sorry I guess.

It feels a whole lot like people are just waiting to be frustrated. Is that a world thing or a baseball thing or maybe just a Royals thing? I get it. The Royals lost 106 games last season and their offense has been in a funk for more than half of this season, so everyone is just waiting for the other shoe to drop. There was a weird outcry against Matt Quatraro last season that I think centered around him not throwing temper tantrums about bad strike zones that impact every team. But I also think people have been frustrated at times by his pitching staff strategy.

The truth is that every manager is going to make fans angry. I have a theory here. Fans, and this is understandable, see the game in front of them and see it as the most important thing in the whole season. And when you look ahead and see the Tigers ace the next day, and a lefty to boot, well, yeah, this game is so important. A manager, on the other hand, has a 162-game season to manage. And he has the personalities and individuals to manage as well. I say that because I’d like to explain the thought process here.

Stratton walked the first batter he faced. Then he gave up relatively soft singles to Riley Green and Mark Canha. Depending on who you ask, Quatraro should have either had someone up before Stratton came in, after the first walk or someone ready to go by the time Matt Vierling came up and ultimately hit a three-run homer with two outs that gave the Tigers the lead they wouldn’t relinquish. The first scenario isn’t going to happen. Nobody is going to be warming up right as a pitcher comes in. It doesn’t happen and it shouldn’t happen.

Why not? Two reasons. The first is that it’s no way to run a staff. If you believe in a pitcher to pitch the seventh inning, the only reason you’re warming someone up directly behind them from the start is if they’re shaky, a la Smith early in the year, and they’re getting one last shot. I’m sure that wasn’t great for Smith’s confidence, but neither was giving up a million runs. Stratton, in contrast to Smith in that first week, has actually been good, contrary to what Firstnamebunchofnumbers will tell you on Twitter. And the second reason is that pitches warming up are still pitches thrown. Quatraro has a staff to run throughout a 162-game season. You can’t just be constantly warming pitchers up.

Now, if you say it would have been great to have someone ready by the time Vierling came to bat, I agree in hindsight. Now, whether they should be game planning for a guy who entered the day hitting .271/.292/.386 with five extra base hits in 72 plate appearances is another story. I’ll ignore that one for now. But let’s think about the logistics. The earliest you’re likely getting someone up is after Mark Canha’s at bat where he hit an 88.7 MPH single to center to score a run. Let’s say John Schreiber, who may or may not have even been available, gets up right then and there. Could he be ready for Vierling? Wenceel Perez flew out on the first pitch he saw. Kerry Carpenter hit a soft single to right to tie the game on the third pitch. Then Spencer Torkelson popped out on the first pitch.

That’s five pitches. Nick Anderson actually was warming up. But to expect a pitcher to be ready to go in five pitches of game time is kind of ridiculous. From the time Canha singled to drive in a run to make it 3-2, it was just under four minutes before Vierling stepped to the plate. I don’t know. Maybe a guy can stretch out and throw five or six pitches and then they get eight on the mound. I suppose it’s possible, but I just think that’s asking a whole lot and I really believe getting someone up earlier is kind of bonkers.

I don’t think anyone is going to think about the way they see the game, but Stratton was one of the worst strike zones I’ve ever seen (that Mets game) away from having 10 straight scoreless outings with 10 strikeouts and four walks over 11 innings after his Opening Day struggles. He’s stranded four of five inherited runners in that time and generally been efficient and effective. To go into that seventh with the idea that Stratton needed backup immediately would have been misguided.

It became particularly unfortunate when the Royals offense tacked on two runs in the ninth against Jason Foley to make it a one-run game, but I have to say that I just don’t see any issue with the way Quatraro handled the game, with one exception. Zerpa threw only nine pitches in his inning of work. I can totally understand the viewpoint of not wanting to move away from him. That said, Zerpa gave up a little hard contact and was working in the middle of the zone. Plus, with Royals starters giving innings and the shortened game on Thursday, Quatraro is in the enviable position of needing to find innings for his relievers, so I also get not sticking with Zerpa for a second inning.

None of this changes how bad a loss it was, but I have a platform to talk about these things and that’s what I wanted to say when I wrote about this game.

I guess I should also mention that Singer was…fine. His velocity was back, which was nice to see, but I just didn’t think anything looked crisp for him. I noted on Twitter that he is just kind of exhausting to watch pitch and, once again, things weren’t going great for him and he reverted back to a sinker/slider only pitchers, throwing just five changeups and five four-seam fastballs. Again, the results were there over five innings, but only throwing five innings forced Quatraro into bullpen roulette.

Sunday - Tigers 4, Royals 1

And Saturday’s loss was worse when you factor in Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers in this one. It’s not that he can’t have a bad game. We saw what happened to Cole Ragans against Baltimore last weekend. It’s that he isn’t likely to because he’s turned into a legitimate ace in the game. There truthfully isn’t a whole lot to say about this one. Skubal was excellent after giving up a run on a Garcia double and Witt single and Michael Wacha was not excellent.

The bigger issue for the Royals is that they are on the struggle bus against left-handed starters. I think they believed there was some room for strong platooning with guys like Renfroe and Velazquez, but when both of them are struggling (or maybe just not good, specifically in the case of Renfroe), it can be tough to fill out a bottom half of a lineup against lefties if they’re going to be sitting guys.

A lineup without Melendez (who isn’t contributing right now anyway), Massey and sometimes even Pasquantino (who is also back in a slump) just gets shallow very fast. Nick Loftin would help. It would help if Tyler Gentry would get going in AAA. It would help if Drew Waters was up (though he’s been better against righties in his big league career). The good news is that the Royals appear to be set to face all righties over their next nine games, so they have a little time to figure that out.

Player of the Week

Pasquantino has fallen into a slump and Witt had a good, but not great week, so we’re going to have a new player of the week for the Royals. It’s a guy who was in such a deep slump that I wondered if he’d go down for Michael Massey. Maikel Garcia has turned things around and fast. He hit .385/.448/.538 this week with a home run, five runs and seven runs batted in. He also added in three steals and his usual outstanding defense (though he did make an error). It was nice to see him get back on track. Perez could have been the player of the week, but Garcia was better. Also, it’s worth noting that Isbel hit .294/.368/.647 in 19 plate appearances. That’s nice to see.

What’s Up Next?

The Royals will see a familiar opponent starting tonight - the Blue Jays. They’ll head to Canada tonight to see the team they just took three of four from, but it was a very evenly matched series. Both offenses were struggling to score runs at Kauffman Stadium

The matchups for the series are:

• Monday: Jonathan Bowlan vs. Yariel Rodriguez

• Tuesday: Cole Ragans vs. Jose Berrios

• Wednesday: Seth Lugo vs. Chris Bassitt

The first two games starters are repeats from the series in Kansas City, but Bassitt is a new one. He’s the guy who I wanted the Royals to go after hard when he was a free agent before last season. I’m not sure if there was ever a shot they would sign him, but he would have been the guy I’d have gone after and given up whatever he wanted basically. Maybe that’s why I’m not a GM. He was good last year but the walk rate is up and he struggled against the Dodgers in his last start.

Then they return home to face the champs. The Rangers will start Michael Lorenzen, Dane Dunning and Jon Gray while the Royals will counter with Brady Singer, Michael Wacha and, likely Bowlan. The Rangers haven’t started fast, but they are over .500 without Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom and with Cody Bradford on the IL as well. Their bullpen has been much better this season, though not without its issues.

The offense has a lot of good, but way more mediocre than they’ve been hoping for with Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford probably struggling a bit more than they expected, though Carter has a .248 ISO. The big concern is that Corey Seager is hitting just .238/.325/.317. You know he’s going to get going at some point. That’s a measuring stick series for the Royals.