Weekend in Review: Rock Bottom...Hopefully

Boy, if it can get worse than this for the Royals, that's not going to be pretty.

I’m going to start with the good news. With one week left, the Royals are still the second Wild Card and get to control their fate. That’s the only piece of good news right now for the Royals after getting swept out of the final homestand of the season, including an ugly weekend where they were outscored 13-1. Yes, they scored one run all weekend. The pitching on Friday and Sunday was actually pretty solid. I’ll get to the details, though I’m going to go back to something I did last season and not really break down the individual games because they don’t matter much. It was basically three days of the same game.

I’ll bring up sequencing once again, though. If you tell a fan six months ago today that the Royals are going to be in a playoff position with six games to play, they’re ecstatic. For example, you'd be thrilled if they were 39-48 on July 4 and then 55-63 on August 10 and somehow were sitting at 82-74 in a playoff position. Oh, that’s the Tigers, who are on the run of a lifetime. Perspective is just a funny thing. Tigers fans are over the moon, while Royals fans are looking for the nearest cliff. It’s just interesting. It’s not wrong to be worried for Royals fans, just to be clear. It’s interesting, though.

The Race

The standings basically couldn’t be much tighter.

Yes, the Mariners are still a threat. The Rays and Red Sox probably aren’t, but you never know and they’re still mathematically alive.

Here’s all of their schedules the rest of the way:

Baltimore - @ NYY, @ MIN

Detroit - vs. TB, vs. CHW

Minnestoa - vs. MIA, vs. BAL

Seattle - @ HOU, vs. OAK

Tampa Bay - @ DET, @ BOS

Boston - @ TOR, vs. TB

So, some of this will work itself out. The Rays play the Tigers and the Red Sox. The Twins play Baltimore. The Tigers have the easiest remaining schedule, partially because they get three at home against the White Sox. But the Royals aren’t that far behind. The Nationals are talented, yes, but they’re not good. And the Braves might be eliminated by their final series, which could be big for the Royals. I think we’re all big-time Mets fans this week, hoping they take care of business and the Braves are toast by the time those final three games come.

The Twins, as poorly as they’re playing, could have a nice week, though. We probably have to root for the Yankees to make sure the Orioles are playing for something in the final weekend because if they have the top Wild Card spot clinched (and their magic number is 3), they can set their rotation and get ready for their Wild Card series against the Royals, Tigers or Twins. And they’re likely not going to be going too hard against the Twins in that instance.

The point is that the Royals' path is still there, and they don’t need any help, but some would be nice. I guess we’re rooting for the Rays, Yankees, Marlins, Astros and Blue Jays to start the week.

The Games

I’m not going through each game, but I will highlight something from each game.

Friday

Michael Wacha was fine, but the combination of Angel Zerpa, John Schreiber and Steven Cruz looked particularly nasty. Zerpa has now pitched in three games since his return from looking great in Omaha and this is his line:

3.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 6 K, 0 BB

He’s throwing hard. He’s throwing strikes. But he’s not throwing it in the middle of the plate. In this one, he was averaging 97.9 MPH on his sinker and was getting chases out of the zone on that and had one on the changeup. Obviously the sample is about as small as it can be, but Zerpa looks like he might have figured some things out in Omaha. If the Royals can get things on track and get into the playoffs, he can be a big weapon in the playoffs.

I will point out that if Garrett Hampson hits a ball probably three inches to the right, the Royals walk this game off. But he didn’t, and they didn’t.

Saturday

Brady Singer continues to show why he probably can’t be counted on in a big game. He had some inherited runners score, but he gave up six runs on seven hits in 5.1 innings. He now has a 5.92 ERA in his last nine starts, dating back to the start of August. In that time, he’s allowed 62 hits in 48.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and 15 walks. Is he a bit unlucky? Probably. As I’ve said so many times, you aren’t good without some good luck and you mostly aren’t bad without some bad luck. But this was another bad one for him.

To his credit, he did utilize his four-seamer, which is more than we can say for some of his other bad starts. His slider was getting whiffs, but it was getting hit hard. He just couldn’t get the Giants to chase much of anything, which forced him to be in the zone, and when he’s too much in the zone, the stuff just isn’t good enough. He gave up 17 batted balls and 12 of them were hard-hit. That’s a pretty absurd number.

On the bright side, Daniel Lynch IV was outstanding in relief again, though the game was a laugher by the time he pitched. There will be a temptation to put Lynch back in the rotation after the way he’s pitched in the bullpen, but I sort of unexpectedly love him in this role and think he can be a big part of next year’s team. He’s now thrown 16 relief innings over nine outings since his return and has given up no runs on five hits with 19 strikeouts and three walks. That’s stupid. I’ll obviously have a lot on next year’s team in the coming weeks and months, but a bullpen featuring him and Kris Bubic, who also continues to look fantastic, is interesting.

Sunday

The Royals had one real chance in this one, and it was with two outs and the bases loaded in the eighth and Salvador Perez, who went 0 for 12 this series without even striking out, popped out to end the threat. That was it. They were shut down by Blake Snell, which is no surprise. Seth Lugo was excellent again, bouncing back nicely from a tough start to start the week. He now has a 2.20 ERA in his last five starts with 32 strikeouts and four walks in 32.2 innings.

But maybe the worst part about this whole week is that they have to use Lugo and Cole Ragans in spots to make the playoffs, which makes it somewhat likely they’d have to pitch Singer in one of those games in the Wild Card series if they get there. So they’ve gone from a chance to set up their playoff rotation to needing to fight for their lives to get there, so even if they do, their chances lessen.

Player of the Week

Nobody wants to hear this, but MJ Melendez hit .400/.500/.700 this week for a 232 wRC+. Still, Bobby Witt Jr. got back on track this week and hit .421/.560/.684 for a 244 wRC+, so he’s the winner in a week where it’s tempting to say nobody deserves it. Cole Ragans gets an honorable mention for giving up just one run over seven innings in his only start of the week.

The Week Ahead

Well, here we go. The Royals are hitting the road to get the Nationals, who have now lost six of seven and just demoted CJ Abrams to the minors for breaking a curfew. They are not a team without talent, even with Abrams in the minors. They’ve promoted James Wood, who is hitting .266/.358/.424 as a rookie. They’ve promoted Dylan Crews, though he’s struggled. They also have a solid second baseman in Luis Garcia Jr. along with a great defender in center field. Juan Yepez and Jose Tena have hit for them.

And their pitching staff is interesting at least. None of their young starters have been great, but all have shown flashes at times. And their bullpen has two guys at the back who have had nice seasons in Kyle Finnegan and Derek Law. Neither is going to wow you with strikeouts, but they get outs. The rest of the bullpen isn’t quite as scary, though they’ve gotten nice performances from Jose A. Ferrer and Eduardo Salazar, though again without many strikeouts. Here are the matchups:

• Tuesday: LHP Cole Ragans vs. LHP Mitchell Parker

• Wednesday: RHP Michael Lorenzen (probably) vs. LHP DJ Herz

• Thursday: RHP Michael Wacha vs. LHP Patrick Corbin

Yep, that’s three straight lefties. The Royals have lost their last five games started by lefties and are 1-8 since the Reds series. Parker and Herz both are wearing down some as this is their rookie season, so they may not be long for the game, even if they’re pitching well, but that’s a concern for the Royals. It has to be. Though I guess it doesn’t really matter which hand the pitcher uses lately. Neither Mitchell nor Herz throw particularly hard. They could be a good matchup. And Corbin is working on his fourth straight year with an ERA well over 5.00. He’s not a good pitcher. He does throw strikes, but he doesn’t get strikeouts and he gives up a ton of hits. If the Royals don’t get right against him, they’re not getting right.

Then it’s on to Atlanta where, again, that series could mean everything, nothing or a whole lot in between. It’s going to be a tougher series, but the Royals will have Lugo and Ragans wrapping up the season, assuming things don’t go absolutely perfectly through Thursday. There is a world where the Royals have clinched a playoff spot before this series in Atlanta. They need to win all three games and have Detroit or Minnesota lose all three of theirs, but there is a world where that happens, I suppose. I know this was a shorter Weekend in Review than normal, but I don’t think anyone wanted 3,000+ words today.

I also think it’s good to prioritize mental health and this team hasn’t been great for mine the last week. With that in mind, the comment section is all yours today. I’ll be back with a newsletter on Wednesday, recharged from a day and a half without the Royals.