Weekend in Review: The Offense We Should Have Seen Coming, The Games, Player of the Week and What's Next

Another week is down and the Royals remain in the thick of things. It's early, but it's better than last year.

Throughout a baseball season, there are a few markers that people look at. Dayton Moore always mentioned the 40-game mark. That’s a good one because that’s about the point when numbers start to change a lot less. Teams have a pretty decent idea of what they have by then. Memorial Day, which is a couple of weeks after that 40-game mark, is the date on the calendar that a lot of people circle. That’s a good one too. I’ve always kind of liked the 16-game mark as the very first point that gives us some sort of insight. It’s basically 10 percent of the season, and I think there’s something interesting about this.

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There is still so much season to go, but when you’ve gotten through 16 out of 162, I feel like you start to know something about a team. You can have an idea of which pitchers can be trusted, which hitters are seeing the ball well and which guys are catching it well. It’s still not enough of a sample to know everything, but it’s a good start. After yesterday, the Royals are there. They’re on pace for 100 wins. They’re on pace for 800+ runs scored. And they’re on pace to allow fewer than 500 runs. Do I believe any of that? I don’t. But I can look at how they got there and get an idea that maybe they can hit. They can pitch. They catch the ball. And they can win some games.

They’ll hit a slump, both on the mound and at the plate. The hope is that they don’t happen at the same time, but they might! We’ve seen a very small glimpse into how they handle adversity. Those first two games had people in a pretzel when comparing them with last season’s team. They came out and won 11-0 the next day. They got walked off twice in Baltimore. They followed that with a seven-game winning streak. They haven’t faced real adversity yet. So we don’t know how they’ll handle that yet either. We’ve learned a lot, but there’s more to learn about this team that has been a lot more fun than last year.

Maybe We Should Have Known About the Offense

When the Royals plated their 10th and 11th runs, I looked back to the 2023 season to find out how many times the Royals scored in double digits. It turns out it was 14 times. Then I thought about it and realized that it felt like it happened quite a bit in September. And sure enough, it happened five times in the 27 games they played between September 1 and October 1. That got me to thinking about what the lineup looked like on most nights at the end of the season.

Taking a look at one of the double-digit run games and there are an awful lot of familiar names that spanned that lineup and the one we see most nights in 2024. That’s when it hit me. This was a legitimately good offense in the last month of the season and the names are largely the same. They hit .266/.333/.442 in September with 146 runs scored (5.4/game), 35 home runs (1.3/game), an 8.4 percent walk rate and a 23.7 percent strikeout rate. Compare that to what they’ve done through 16 games this year: .254/.317/.424 with a 108 wRC+. They’ve been a top-10 offense.

They’re averaging 5.3 runs per game with just under 1.3 home runs per game. Their walk rate currently ranks 20th in baseball, but there’s a cluster in the middle, so any day could see it jump to 13th or 14th (or drop a bit too, though there’s a pretty big drop. Their strikeout rate took a bit of a hit yesterday, but they’re not striking out a ton. They trail only Baltimore in the American League in ISO. They haven’t been particularly lucky with a .290 BABIP. They’ve maybe been a touch unlucky with an expected line of .258/.322/.466.

Looking at the Statcast numbers, no team in all of baseball has as many barrels as the Royals do. Their hard-hit rate is seventh-best. Their average exit velocity is tied for second. We talked a lot last season about how hard the Royals hit the ball without results. This year, they’re continuing to hit it hard with results, but they sort of started getting those results at the end of last season. A lot of people will ignore September results, but I don’t think that’s quite the same as it used to be since the rosters no longer expand all the way to 40. I just think maybe we should have been a little more expecting of them scoring some runs. Maybe not to this level, but in general, they showed late last year what their potential was.

The Games

Friday - Mets 6, Royals 1

The Royals finally had a clunker. Michael Wacha wasn’t hit especially hard, for the most part, but the Mets were able to put pressure on him basically all game long. He gave up 10 hits and walked two over six, so that’s two runners per inning. Just six of the 21 batted balls against him were hard hit and only nine of the 21 even had an expected average of .500 or better. So it wasn’t a truly bad outing or anything from Wacha, but he just couldn’t avoid the trouble.

The Mets did most of their lifting with two outs. He had two outs in the third and the number nine hitter, Harrison Bader, was up. He had Bader down 0-2, but probably made a poor choice on pitch selection and Bader singled. He got him to swing and miss on a cutter and a changeups to start the at bat, but Bader fouled off a fastball up and just off the plate. He went there again with another fastball and Bader got his hit. It’s hindsight, but I wonder if he’d have been more successful with another changeup there. What’s done is done, but a double on a changeup to Brandon Nimmo got the Mets their first run.

Then in the next inning, he walked Francisco Lindor but got Pete Alonso to hit into a double play. That’s when the Mets got started again. Brett Baty hit a soft single to right. Francisco Alvarez hit a hard grounder through the right side. Jeff McNeil followed with a soft single to left. Then it was a soft single for DJ Stewart. But it was 3-1 before Wacha got the third out. The exit velocities on the hits were 73.3 MPH, 99.0 MPH, 83.3 MPH and 67.5 MPH. That tells me there were some good pitches in there, but the runs count the same.

Ultimately, that was enough. Wacha did give up two more after a rare bad route from Kyle Isbel led to him just missing a great diving catch. Will Smith then came in and gave up a home run to Alonso, but the game was out of reach and over. On the 54-54-54 list, it was the first one in the “always lose” column, which is pretty incredible for the 14th game of the season.

The Royals offense just couldn’t get anything going. Salvador Perez did hit an absolutely mammoth home run in the second.

But that was really it. It happens. The Royals had their first game that they weren’t really competitive in. As Lou Brown told Willie Mays Hayes, don’t let it happen again.

Saturday - Royals 11, Mets 7

Alec Marsh looked like he was set for an outing that would make the Royals wonder if they needed to think about other options. He gave up three runs in the first inning, which is noteworthy because their starting pitching had been so dominant that they never found themselves in trouble. In fact, ahead of Saturday, they’d only allowed two runs in the first inning all season. They’d actually only allowed seven runs in the first three innings, if you want to see why they’ve been in every single game into the middle innings or later.

But Marsh just couldn’t get anything done. His command was a mess. His control wasn’t great. It felt like the inning that may never end. It somehow did and the Royals offense went to work. I’ll get to them in a second. Marsh ended up going five innings and giving up four runs, which means he gave up just one in his final four innings on a Pete Alonso home run. He’d definitely like to have that pitch back. The Royals bullpen wasn’t outstanding. Angel Zerpa also gave up a home run to Alonso and then Matt Sauer really struggled.

I didn’t mind the Royals using Sauer in that spot. He’d only pitched in big-time blowouts and this would be his third day out of four. If you’re going to find out what he can do as a reliever, this was the spot as long as Matt Quatraro was prepared to give him the hook and go to the “A” bullpen. He was. Sauer struggled with a home run allowed and two walks and they had to go to John Schreiber to hold the lead. He did, everything was fine, and the Royals learned a little something about Sauer.

Offensively, the Royals did what they’ve done so much over the first few weeks of the season and they just kept coming. After they scored in the first, the second started with a one-out single from Hunter Renfroe. I did not like the Renfroe signing. I was pretty clear about that. And his overall numbers are decidedly not good so far this year. But I think it’s only fair to point out that since and including the game of his first hit, he’s hitting .267/.353/.433 with two doubles, a home run, six RBIs and four walks. The line looked much better before striking out three times in three at bats on Sunday, but I digress. If he can do that the rest of the year, he’ll be just fine.

Anyway, a Dairon Blanco walk and then a Witt two-out walk got Nick Loftin to the plate, who was hitting third against a lefty. I said to my wife at the time that if he doesn’t do anything, I think the game was over then. I know that’s weird to say that in the second inning with a team that had been so adept at scoring runs, but I just felt like that could be a turning point. Thankfully Loftin drew a walk to make it 3-2, then Perez singled to score Blanco and Witt and the Royals had a lead they would give up in the fourth on the Alonso home run, but they’d get back. I do have to share the Garrett Hampson crossover move because it was a thing of beauty.

He was on first base and got picked off, plain and simple. Alonso made a throw to Francisco Lindor and it wasn’t a great throw, so Hampson showed off some skills.

There’s another signing I thought was pretty meh, but that was at least a fun moment.

The fourth started with a bad error by Starling Marte, who just dropped a Witt fly ball that allowed the speedster to get to third. Then Loftin singled to drive in another run and that’s when Perez came to the plate looking for his 250th career home run.

It took an umpire review, but he got it. He is just the 12th player in big league history to play 75 percent of his games behind the plate and get to 250 home runs. I don’t think he’s a Hall of Famer yet, but I do think there’s a path for him to get there. Some more postseason time wouldn’t hurt him. The Royals picked up another on a Freddy Fermin RBI single and then would score again in the fifth on a Loftin sacrifice fly and in the sixth on a two-RBI Renfroe double. And that was enough.

It was the fifth time the Royals had scored in double digits this season after doing it just 14 times all of 2024. They didn’t do it for the first time last year until April 22. But going back to the September theme, they did it five times in September as well. So that means that, after Sunday, now in their last 43 games, they’ve scored in double digits 10 times. That’s pretty impressive.

Sunday - Mets 2, Royals 1

Cole Ragans was outstanding in this one. So was Jose Butto. I’m going to get to both of them, but I’m going to go on a rant here for a second about umpires, which I haven’t really done much this year. They’re horrendous and the fact that they aren’t held accountable is one of the most infuriating things about Major League Baseball. It’s true across sports. But the display put on in the bottom of the eighth inning by Chris Segal actually impacted a game.

I’m not going to pretend that Chris Stratton was especially good. He was all around the zone and walked four batters in his inning of work. But it all started with one plate appearance against Jeff McNeil. With a man on second and two outs, Stratton made some absolutely beautiful pitches.

This is somehow a walk on five pitches. It might be a little tough to see on the chart above because they’re all on top of each other, but pitch two is directly under pitch four and was called a ball. Those are three strikes, without any question at all. But Segal decided that this was the moment he had been craving all game and decided to just stop calling pitches in the zone a strike. Why now? I wish I could tell you. Those pitches had been strikes throughout the game on both sides. But at this moment, in a spot that could actually impact a game, they were balls.

Brett Baty walked on legitimately bad pitches to load the bases and Harrison Bader hit a little chopper to third that Maikel Garcia couldn’t field cleanly (it was a tough play) to score the first one. Then Brandon Nimmo came to the plate and saw four pitches, all were called balls. Only…

Yep, it happened again! I’ll buy the argument that pitch three is borderline, but two and four are strikes without question. Segal, though, didn’t see it that way, though I wonder if he sees much. And a truly great game with some excellent pitching was instead decided by the eyes of a 41-year old man instead of with the use of the technology available to anyone with an internet connection. So no, Stratton didn’t pitch well enough, but if the game is called correctly, we’re talking about how he just painted the edge and got out of the eighth scoreless with the called strike three on McNeil.

I would like to point out one more call that bothered me and people aren’t talking about because of how bad the eighth inning was. In the sixth, Garcia worked an excellent plate appearance. He took a sinker for a strike and then alternated balls and foul balls through the sixth pitch. He fouled off two changeups (I’ll get to this) and then took a four-seam fastball for strike three (pitch 9).

This one is somewhat defensible because it’s borderline. But Ragans had thrown a pitch in the exact spot in the second that was maybe even a touch closer called a ball. Let’s have some consistency. And, of course, Witt followed with a double down the left field line that assuredly would have scored Garcia. Now, as I’ve written a million times, we can never assume that what did happen would happen if the preceding situation had happened differently, but it’s worth noting.

That’s a real shame for a multi-billion dollar industry.

My hot take here is that I think bad umpiring is a bigger issue for the league than any television deal or anything like that. You can’t be partnering with gambling organizations and allow the human element to impact the game at this level. People will argue that if you don’t want umpires or officials or whatever your sport calls the people making the calls to impact the game, play better. But that’s such a copout answer. Both teams are doing everything they can to win and it’s really easy to say that the Royals should have simply hit Jose Butto, but Butto was great. The real answer is get the calls right.

And again, it’s a shame that the game ended the way it did because Ragans vs. Butto was some outstanding pitching. I had some people on Twitter (sorry for calling you out, but it’s not personal) complaining that the Royals were just swinging at pitches out of the zone and shouldn’t have, but Butto’s changeup was filthy. Saying they were swinging at pitches out of the zone and should stop shows a bit of a lack of understanding just how good a good changeup can be.

When that ball comes in, about two-thirds of the way there, the spin looks like a fastball and then the bottom falls out of it. It’s up to the Royals to try to figure out how to identify that pitch earlier, but it’s also up to Butto for them not to. Given the offensive success for the team this season, I think it’s fair and people are more willing to tip their cap to the opposing pitcher in these situations. What I really liked about Butto (or would have if it was against someone else) is that he incorporated his slider more after the Royals started picking up the changeup and he was excellent. And, in the end, the Royals actually only swung at 29 percent of his pitches outside the zone, which was pretty impressive given that it was at something like 50 percent through three innings.

Ragans matched him. More accurately probably given their pedigree, Butto matched Ragans. He was probably as sharp as he’s been all season yesterday and that’s saying something because he’s had a really good start to the year. He was getting whiffs on everything, though the changeup wasn’t quite as good for him as it had been earlier this year. His fastball velocity was up to 2023 levels. It wasn’t down much, but it was down a touch from last year. His curve was outstanding. He ended the day with scoreless innings and eight strikeouts. Here is his line this season through four starts:

23.2 IP
21 H
29.6% K
7.1% BB
1.93 ERA
2.94 xERA
2.35 FIP

In 16 starts with the Royals now, he has a 2.46 ERA with a 30.7 percent strikeout rate and 8.9 percent walk rate. Among Royals pitchers historically with 16 plus starts with at least 80 percent of their appearances as a starter, his 2.46 ERA is 0.72 better than second-best (James Shields). His 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings is best by 2.4 (Felipe Paulino). His strikeout to walk ratio of 3.47 is .11 ahead of Shields for best in team history. His 2.45 FIP is 0.65 ahead of second (Bret Saberhagen). Time can drag down numbers, but Ragans is showing that he’s a legitimate ace.

Unfortunately, the Mets scratched across those two runs in the eighth with some help, so when Vinnie Pasquantino stepped to the plate against Edwin Diaz and did this…

…it didn’t matter enough. But it was nice to see him continue to play well.

The biggest story for the next few days/weeks/months is the Perez injury. With second and third and one out, Tyrone Taylor hit a ball to left field that ended with Melendez making a perfect throw to the plate to cut down Starling Marte. But on the slide, Perez’s leg extended and the news at this moment is that it’s a groin/hip issue. Knowing him, he’ll come to the stadium in Chicago bouncing around, but it didn’t look good after it happened. Freddy Fermin is capable of playing every day behind the plate, but Perez’s power will be missed if he’s out for a bit.

Player of the Week

The Royals played a good week of baseball. They swept the Astros and then did lose the two of three to the Mets, but they continue to look competitive. Doing this every week is going to get super repetitive in a way because it feels like Bobby Witt Jr. is going to be the easy answer in so many weeks, but I’m going to give it to Vinnie Pasquantino. Witt hit .308/.357/.731 with a 198 wRC+, but Pasquantino worked his way back to relevance this week and had a great week, so he’s the choice for me. He hit a ridiculous .421/.478/.842. He started the week with no extra base hits and no RBIs. He now has two doubles, two home runs and nine runs batted in. He has a 99 wRC+ for the season and that’s with hitting .108/.214/.108 through his first 10 games. He’s raised the season line in four games played. Bonkers.

The Week Ahead

After a pretty evenly matched series in New York, the Royals are off to Chicago where they will face the White Sox again. Look, we know what the White Sox are. If the Royals are serious about competing, and their first 10 percent of the season indicates they are, this is a series they need to win. It’s not that they can’t win the division if they lose the series or that they’ll definitely win it if they win the series, but every win matters when you’re actually going for something and the White Sox stink out loud. They’re even worse today than they were heading into the last series because Luis Robert Jr. is hurt (we saw that happen in KC) and Yoan Moncada is also out for an extended time period.

Here are the matchups for that three-game set:

• Monday: Seth Lugo vs. Nick Nastrini

• Tuesday: Brady Singer vs. Erick Fedde

• Wednesday: Michael Wacha vs. Chris Flexen

The most interesting matchup will be tonight against Nastrini. He was a top Dodgers prospect who came to the White Sox last year in a deal for Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. I’ve long been a Nastrini fan and hoped the Royals could find a way to get him, so I was pretty bummed when the White Sox did. He gets a lot of strikeouts with a great fastball and a great slider. He also has a solid to good curve and changeup, so he can be a four-pitch pitcher. The question is control with him, but the stuff is good. I wouldn’t be too surprised if we see something similar to the game against Spencer Arrighetti the other day where the first time through looks rough but the bats figure some things out the second time through.

After an off day, the Royals come home to take on the Orioles, who remain a very good team. They’ve added Jackson Holliday to the roster and while he’s started slowly, he’s another elite talent to add to their lineup. It looks like they’ll face Dean Kremer, Corbin Burnes and Cole Irvin in the three games, though as we saw in this Mets series, that can change over the course of the week with rainouts and whatnot. Still, it’ll be a tough series and a good test for the Royals. They need to beat the White Sox if they want to compete, but beating the Orioles would go a long way toward proving something to themselves. They played them very tough in Baltimore, so they’ve already shown they can hang with them.