Weekend in Review: Finding Optimism, Yet Another Series Loss and the Week Ahead

Is it Groundhog Day? It feels like the same story-ish, every week.

Baseball is a funny sport and the players are funny. Maybe it’s because of the daily grind, but I can’t think of another sport where the turning of a calendar page is as big of a deal. But in baseball, it legitimately is seen as a thing. I often wonder why that is, but I think some of it is human. Baseball Reference is one of many amazing sites that show some phenomenal statistics and one of the things it divides stats up by is by month. Well if you hit .212 in April and .330 in May, there’s a dividing line. And people in general like to find that dividing line when they do something day after day after day. So now the calendar has turned. The 7-22 (okay really 7-21 April since they played one game in March) is over and now they can turn the page.

I’m giving away two tickets and parking to see Lorenzo Cain’s retirement as a member of the Royals, but you MUST be a paid subscriber to be eligible!

What remains to be seen is if they can actually turn the page. Because the reality is that nothing actually changes when it goes from month-to-month. The same lineup that scored 3.3 runs per game is going to take the field tomorrow night. The same pitching staff that gave up eight or more runs nine times is still going to throw the pitches. And the same defense that rates as roughly average is still going to be catching the ball. The same team that doesn’t do anything well is going to take the field against the Orioles tomorrow night. I think it’s fair to believe there’s more talent than they’ve shown. I do believe it. And maybe the mental game of watching April go away for another year will help, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Let’s Find Some Optimism

I can tell you about why things are bad, but you’re smart enough to know. They don’t pitch well. They don’t hit well. And they’re not especially good at catching the ball. Simple enough. But I think it’s important for fans to not be bogged down by constant negativity because we see enough of that from watching and talking about the actual games. I think it’s important to note that good things are actually happening on this team.

Call this a stock watch. Call it a shameless opportunity for me to feel better about writing about this team. Call it whatever you want, but let’s do this and look at some of the good for this Royals team lately.

Vinnie Pasquantino

I’ll remind everyone about a billion times that I wrote that Pasquantino would be a top-30 hitter in 2023. He his hitting .279/.375/.500, which is good for a 139 wRC+. That ranks 38th, so I shouldn’t take a victory lap just yet, but I have a feeling if he maintains that, it’ll end up in the top-30 by the end of the season. For whatever it’s worth, his 143 OPS+ is tied for the 30th, so I’ll take that. But with Pasquantino, it’s more of the same of what we saw last season but with a little extra power sprinkled in. He has struck out more than he’s walked, but only by one. That can even out pretty quickly. I do get the sense that he’s put a little too much pressure on himself at times and that’s led to an increased chase rate, but I’d anticipate that leveling off soon enough and he’ll continue to be a legitimate top big league hitter.

Edward Olivares

While Pasquantino has been doing it the whole season, Olivares is on fire right now. His overall line of .289/.344/.482 is excellent, so the numbers are great, but he’s been a monster lately. He hit in every game on the road trip, but going back a couple days before that, he’s hit .341/.396/.568 with seven extra base hits in his last 11 games. On top of that, he’s stolen three bases without being caught. We know that he isn’t what you’d call a “good” defender in the outfield, but the bat is playing right now and he needs to be in the lineup one way or another every single night no matter what. Olivares can hit, but with his glove, he needs to be more the guy he’s been on the whole this season and he’s earning his roster spot right now at a time when many aren’t.

Nick Pratto

This is a super small sample, but the Royals called Pratto up on Friday and he immediately went 3 for 5 with two runs batted in. He had two more hits on Saturday and another one yesterday. He’s working on a new approach that is doing what he needs to do, which is swing more. He doesn’t have the best contact skills and he would get himself into a lot of trouble by taking pitches early in counts that would lead to him getting deep into those counts. Well, 3-2 is great but when you struggle to make contact, you’re still going to get a pitcher’s two-strike pitch and that can lead to a ton of strikeouts. The strikeout numbers have still been there the last three games, but the approach is apparent and the results, as a whole, were great. I’d like to see it continue on this homestand against some pitching staffs he should be okay against.

The Bullpen

I thought about highlighting Aroldis Chapman and Scott Barlow, but the bullpen has done some work lately. On the just completed road trip, they were certainly not perfect, but they posted a 2.68 ERA that came with a 31.5 percent strikeout rate and 6.1 percent walk rate. This is what I was expecting when I figured the bullpen would be a strength. The obvious long-term issue here is that the starting rotation can’t continue to force them into so many innings, but that’s where the depth of this team comes into play.

On the trip, Barlow found himself back on track, saving all three games he appeared in without allowing a run. Josh Staumont, though he struggled with inherited runners yesterday, has looked very good, getting tons of strikeouts and limiting walks enough. Carlos Hernandez looks like an absolute beast. Josh Taylor is getting strikeouts without walking anyone and Chapman did find some trouble on the trip, but he did so in weird ways that don’t seem sustainable. I think the bullpen has found its footing and I’m interested to see if they can get Dylan Coleman back on track in AAA (though he hasn’t appeared yet) and get him into the mix too.

There’s a lot of bad, but it’s healthy to celebrate the good.

The Games

Twins 8, Royals 6

Sometimes I write these as the weekend goes on and sometimes I write them on Sunday night or Monday morning. With this particular game, I wanted to write what I was going to write without being clouded by Saturday’s game or Sunday’s game because I’m curious to see if I’m right. I’ll probably add to the end with the results, but you’ll also know. In this one, the Royals lost for the 21st time in just their 27th game. If you weren’t sure, that’s quite awful. It was their fifth loss to the Twins in their fifth game against them. But something about it made me optimistic.

The Royals struck first in the top of the first and it was literally their first lead of the year against the Twins in their fifth game against them. This isn’t just the Twins having the Royals number. This is total domination. But the Royals struck first only to see Jordan Lyles give up the lead on literally his first pitch. Yes, I’ve used literally twice in this paragraph because both of the facts are so ridiculous that I had to be sure nobody could possibly believe it was hyperbole. While Lyles got out of the first, he gave up two more in the second and then four more in the fourth. The pitcher the Royals signed to eat innings barfed all over them instead.

So after a similar outing from the other veteran in the rotation, Zack Greinke, the Royals were destined to roll over once again as they have done so many times. After Taylor gave up a homer in the fifth to make it 8-2, something weird happened. The offense, facing Pablo Lopez, who thoroughly dominated them on Opening Day, showed life. And a lot of it.

First, I’ll mention that the first inning run was one we haven’t seen from the Royals too much. I get tired of fawning over productive outs, but the Royals have been so bad in these situations that I’ll allow it. Bobby Witt Jr. doubled to start the game, Vinnie Pasquantino got him over to third and then Salvador Perez hit a sacrifice fly. Would I have preferred a big inning? Sure! But we’ve seen enough leadoff doubles turn into a stat about men left on base that I’ll take it. And then in the top of the fourth, Pratto, making his triumphant return, came through with an RBI single after an Olivares hustle double.

Cheerleader speeches can only do so much, but Pasquantino was pretty frustrated after the 7-1 loss on Thursday. According to Anne Rogers of MLB.com, he said this:

"We’re struggling. We’ve got to find a way to get out of it. There’s lots that can be said that I’m not going to say to you guys. ... I know guys are pissed off. There’s a lot of frustration. It’s anger. We know we can better than this. But we have to do it."

Olivares getting to second on a ball that could have easily been a wide turn at first and holding with a single was big. Pratto making contact on a 0-2 pitch was big. It made the game 3-2 and there was just something about the way they put together that two-out rally that felt…different. Of course, Lyles took a dump all over that in the fourth, but I digress. In the sixth, the fight began.

Salvador Perez hit yet another Target Field home run. Shocker.

Then with two outs, Olivares and Pratto teamed up again. Olivares tripled while Pratto, with a new approach of swinging a little bit more (but still not a lot more), took a pitch on the outer edge and singled to left field to score him. Now it was 8-4 Twins. The seventh provided more drama. Hunter Dozier walked and Michael Massey singled to put runners on first and third for the top of the lineup. When the eight and nine hitters do something, the top needs to cash it in and they actually did. It was another productive out with Witt hitting into a fielder’s choice to score the first run and then he stole second and Perez picked up his third RBI of the game to make it 8-6.

Unfortunately, home plate umpire Jerry Layne took over and the zone got very, very bad. The zone was iffy at best all game, but with two on and two out in the eighth, it reached levels that hurt very bad. Michael Massey, who hadn’t walked at all this year, was at the plate and giving Caleb Thielbar a heck of a battle. He took the first two pitches for a ball and took the third pitch, which you can see below, but it was called a strike. So a 3-0 count became 2-1. Then he took a slider in the dirt that should have been a walk, but it was 3-1. Thielbar threw a perfect pitch to make it 3-2, Massey swung at the sixth pitch and then took pitch seven below. For strike three.

What? Matt Quatraro got run, which he had to after this game. You might be thinking it’s not that egregious. And you’re sort of right. But here’s a chart from earlier that inning against Olivares. You might be wondering where pitch two that was called a strike is. It’s behind pitch five. That was called a ball. A bad zone is one thing. An inconsistent zone is even worse.

So we move to the ninth with the score still 8-6 because the aforementioned bullpen did amazing work. Jorge Lopez got the first two outs before Perez singled to extend the game. A struggling MJ Melendez also singled and then Lopez hit Olivares, which led to a Pratto at bat with the game on the line. The bases were loaded with two outs. The count got to 3-0 and Layne called a borderline-at-best pitch for a strike to make it 3-1. Pratto absolutely missed a pitch that he should have done damage on before swinging at a pitch at the top of the zone for strike three. And that’s that. It was a loss, but it felt like a wake-up loss. We’ll see!

Saturday - Twins 3, Royals 2

I could have rewritten the above. But I’m not going to. I had some personal things come up this weekend that didn’t really allow me to see the Saturday or Sunday games in their entirety. I caught pieces here and there, so I may not have the best analysis. I’ll touch on two things from this game, though, from what I can glean from the recaps and from the handful of innings I saw.

I can only assume that if I looked at Brad Keller’s mechanics on a pitch-by-pitch basis that it would appear I was looking at multiple different pitchers. To walk 24 batters in 30.1 innings is kind of amazing. He’s also struck out 24 and given up 24 hits. And Saturday was no different. He once again wasn’t hit hard, but he walked five in 5.1 innings and struck out four. I don’t know how he’s carrying a 3.56 ERA, but I’m very interested in watching his progression over the next few weeks.

The Royals should theoretically be promoting some starting pitching depth soon enough. Daniel Lynch will be back, Anthony Veneziano has been outstanding at AA, Alec Marsh could find himself in AAA and maybe Jonathan Bowlan too. I don't know of a timeline on Angel Zerpa or if Jonathan Heasley can find it, but there should be reinforcements by mid-season. Keller has until then. It’s a great test for Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove.

I was fortunate enough to see the final two innings, and I do believe they showed something different after Friday night’s disappointment. The eighth inning against Griffin Jax was quite encouraging. Jax has been good this year, but more interestingly, he’s been in control. And Bobby. Witt Jr. working a walk and then stealing second was exactly what you want to see from him. Then a productive out (I still hate that term but they need more of them) led to a clutch two-out RBI single from Perez.

Then the ninth was fun. Jhoan Duran, who is absolute hell for hitters, walked Olivares to lead off the inning and Olivares stole second. Then he did the near impossible and walked Massey, which was kind of funny because he technically walked him on a pitch clock violation, but he threw the pitch anyway and it was way inside, so we’ll give him credit. Then one of the few times that I liked a sacrifice bunt was when Nicky Lopez bunted them to second and third with one out. And a wild pitch scored the run. The offense got a gift, but they usually return those. And while Barlow wasn’t perfect in the ninth, he held the lead and got the Royals a rare win.

Sunday - Twins 8, Royals 4

I saw the first two innings of this game, so I am not qualified to evaluate Brady Singer’s terrible performance just yet, but I’d like to be at some point, so stay tuned. Still, I am officially worried about him and might have reached the point that I actually hope he’s hurt to explain some of this. That third inning appeared to just be a total disaster for him. This chart below is one reason why I really want to dig in.

He wasn’t missing in the middle hardly at all. It appeared he couldn’t get any control of his sinker, which leads to opponents taking the slider out of the zone that he’s banking on swings and misses. So I don’t know what happened, but I do plan to take a look before his next start and hopefully write something up.

The bright side here is that the bullpen was, once again, dominant. Though Staumont did allow both inherited runners to come home with two outs, so maybe there’s a bit of an asterisk on this. Still, 5.1 innings with two hits allowed and nine strikeouts with one walk is excellent work and more proof that I think the bullpen will ultimately be the one strength of this team.

I suppose scoring one run against Sonny Gray is a bit of an accomplishment given that he’d allowed two all season before this game, but still, not good enough. They scored their first run on a groundout, their second run on an error and then did score two on an RBI single in the ninth. But yeah, not good enough.

The Week Ahead

I think more interesting than the opponents will be if there are any moves coming. I mentioned May 1 as a date that we could see some action and here we are. They have an off day and everyone in the minors is off, so let’s see what happens. Nick Wittgren remains someone to watch with an opt-out today, but I’d also be curious to see if someone like Franmil Reyes, who just isn’t doing what they need him to do, makes it to tomorrow. We’ll see, I guess. But after we see, the Royals will welcome in the once-sad, now-good Baltimore Orioles. I think they’re in a bit over their heads right now, but they’re very talented.

I don’t anticipate Jorge Mateo putting up MVP numbers all year or Tyler Wells to keep an ERA at 2.79, but I also don’t think Gunnar Henderson will continue to struggle like he has or Anthony Santander to carry a sub-.650 OPS, so things should even out for them. The Royals will see Wells, Kyle Gibson and rookie Grayson Rodriguez in that order and will counter with Ryan Yarbrough, Zack Greinke and Lyles, in that order. So I feel like there’s a fair amount of mismatches with only Wednesday’s game looking like the Royals could fare well in that matchup with Greinke’s success at home. Though Yarbrough has been pretty good lately. I guess the first goal is to get a win at home to double their season total. Then we can talk about winning a series.

After the Orioles, though, the only team with a worse record than the Royals comes to town in the A’s. Now, this could be a horrifically bad yet entertaining series. The Royals have the third-worst ERA in baseball. The A’s is more than two runs higher. If the offense can’t get going with nice weather against that staff, there’s no hope. I don’t usually make statements like that, but they’ve allowed eight or more runs 15 times and fewer than five just nine times. This is a series to get your offense right, similar to what happened in Colorado last May. The Royals will get Mason Miller, who has been really fun, so maybe they struggle there, but I’ll say that they need to score at least 15 runs this series.

And just a programming note to hold myself accountable, I’m planning to have something tomorrow on the struggling hitters and one thing I might have overlooked heading into this season with some league-wide context.