Weekend in Review: Prospect Talk, Tough Series Loss, Player of the Week and the Week Ahead

A series win was in the grasp of the Royals, but it slipped away when put in the hands of their best.

We are now 21.6 percent of the way through the 2024 season and the Kansas City Royals are on pace for 92 or 93 wins. By any measure, the start of this season, with a seemingly grueling schedule at the outset has been a success. And yet, they seem to be falling just short of beating the teams that are among baseball’s best. They’ve lost two of three twice to the Orioles with a run differential of -2. They lost two of three to the Twins to start the year. They lost two of three to the Mets as well. And now they’ve lost two of three to the defending champs. They also lost two of three to the Tigers, which isn’t ideal, but I’m not putting them in the same category as the other teams. Because what those other teams have in common is they’ve done it before.

Okay, maybe the Mets was a bit of a stretch, but that’s a veteran team that has at least been around. The Royals have the looks of a team trying to figure out how to win some of these games. They’re hanging around in basically every game (Saturday night notwithstanding) and showing some impressive fight even in games that they are down big. But they’re just not quite there in closing it out. I think that people probably will make fun of the idea that a team needs to “learn to win” but I also think there’s something to it. I talk to a lot of baseball people regularly and to a person, that’s something they all mention with the Royals. The good news is that a team can develop that trait in season. Now, for the Royals, we hope they develop it but not too late to matter.

From the Scouts

I wanted to share some of the comments I’ve gotten from the various scouts I talk with throughout the season now that we’re about a month to most minor league seasons. Generally what I’ve heard is that the Royals system and processes are among the most improved in baseball. The system is specific to this year while the processes are a couple of years in the making. So here’s some thoughts on a few of the guys in the system.

Blake Mitchell

“I never understood him over Teel, but now I get it. I’m still not sure I agree with it, but I get it.”

I pressed and asked for some more information on that front and he came back with a real report. He said Mitchell had everything you want in a bat offensively and even thinks the strikeouts are going to come down eventually, maybe even to an above-average level. But it doesn’t matter if he does strike out more than you’d like because the approach is elite and he’s going to work walks at every level while he punishes baseballs.

The second scout I spoke with told me that he wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if Mitchell was in AA by the end of the year. The Royals aren’t the most aggressive promoters sometimes, but he has the ability to move very quickly because of the advanced approach at the plate. Both believed he could stick at catcher.

Ben Kudrna

I only talked to one scout, but he was pretty bullish. He said he doesn’t think the fastball will allow him to be at the front of a rotation, but he commands his pitches well enough to start. But if he does have to go to the bullpen, he thinks the ceiling is probably middle reliever.

Mason Barnett

I’m a big Barnett fan, so there’s some bias here, but I spoke with two people who think he’s the best pitching prospect in the system, but not the highest upside.

“His fastball has a chance to be dominant and his changeup gets whiffs.”

One scout I talked to said the difference this year is the slider.

“It went from a pitch he could show to set something up to a pitch he can actually use to get outs. I might like it better than his changeup when it's right.”

Carter Jensen

“He could be succeeding in AAA right now.”

Then about seven hours later.

“Okay that might be too much. But he’s too good for A-ball.”

One scout I spoke with said he’s just much quicker in everything this year. He’s processing pitches faster and making earlier decisions. The results have been there for him and after a solid year in many ways in Quad Cities, he said it was time to get him to the next level. He doesn’t think there’s much else to be gained from staying at that level.

Gavin Cross

“It’s either going to click for him soon or he’s going to get exposed in AAA. I can’t decide.”

That’s not what you want from the top pick from just a couple of years ago, but I thought the rationale here was interesting. He said the bat-to-ball skills are all there. The decisions are generally all there. But this scout has seen him quite a bit over the last two seasons and he said that he just struggles to make contact for stretches of time. If that can go away, he has a chance to be a top-50 prospect.

Since being pulled early and we all wondered if he was getting a bump to AAA but it just turned out her had sustained an injury diving back to a bag, he’s hit .298/.353/.489 with three doubles and two homers in 51 plate appearances. All of that plays. But he’s also struck out 15 times in that stretch. I guess we’ll see.

Chandler Champlain

I talked to one scout who saw him in his first game of the year when he gave up eight earned runs in 2.2 innings and then saw him in his fourth game when he gave up two runs on three hits over five with eight strikeouts against the same team. He texted me after the first game with one word - “Reliever.”

Then he texted after the next game and he said - “Good reliever.”

We went back and forth and he admitted he could see a mid-rotation or backend starter too, which I think is sort of the consensus, but he believed that the fastball would really play up and he wouldn’t have to keep trying to get the changeup to be a thing out of the bullpen.

Cayden Wallace

“I’m not sure he’s going to make enough contact to matter.”

Wallace does have a 16.3 percent swinging strike rate this season after showing just 10.1 percent following his AA promotion. That’s high. It’s interesting that he’s only striking out 17.2 percent of the time with that whiff rate. Wallace has been red hot lately, hitting .386/.462/.568 in his last 52 plate appearances with only four strikeouts and this particular scout saw him like three games into the stretch, so it’s possible he’d have a different opinion today.

He said he’s a big leaguer defensively and if he can make more contact, he’s got a chance to be a big-time doubles guy with 15-20 home run pop at the big league level that could turn into 30 home run pop as he matures, but he just didn’t think it would come together. I’m going to reach out and see if he can give some additional insight now a few weeks after he got going.

Hunter Owen

“If he’s healthy, he’s a top-three pitching prospect in the system. But I can’t predict health, so I’d never rank him that high.”

Owen has been really good in Quad Cities to start the year and another scout said that his organization had a first round grade on the talent, but wouldn’t draft him before the sixth round, so he’s not surprised at the results. Everyone I’ve talked to agrees that if he has to go to the bullpen, he’ll be a force, but that he has the stuff to be a number two starter in the big leagues. There’s just a lot of skepticism he can be healthy enough for it.

It’s not that every player is positive. Trevor Werner got dinged by more than one person I’ve spoken with. I haven’t talked to anyone who has seen Frank Mozzicato yet this year, so nothing good or bad on him. I had three different people tell me Tyler Gentry looks like a mess this year, but that they think he’ll figure it out. Someone mentioned Henry Williams and said they liked getting him, but they just don’t see it.

The one thing that I found interesting is that all of them said the system is more talented than the pre-season rankings, but they’re not sure there’ll be much movement in that until before next year by the major publications.

The Games

Friday - Royals 7, Rangers 1

What an electric night at Kauffman Stadium to start the weekend. Brady Singer was on the bump and while he struggled a bit with command, he was able to get through six innings with just one run allowed to go with eight strikeouts and no walks. The no walks was a big one for him after he’s struggled with control and walks his last few times out.

He had his slider working against the Rangers. He had 12 whiffs on 47 swings for the game and 11 of them came on 24 swings against his slider. He had the Rangers chasing it like crazy too. He threw just 15 of the 41 he threw in the zone and the Rangers chased 11 of the 26 that were outside the zone. It was a good pitch for him. His sinker was moving too. The big plus for him is that we saw 93s and 94s from this sinker instead of a lot of 90-92. Matt Quatraro, after the game, talked about his stuff being back to where it was before 2023. I don’t fully agree with that, but it’s much better than last year, so he can trust it a little more.

As it feels like it’s been for so long for this offense, it was a big-time struggle early. Down 1-0, they got their first taste of some offense when Hunter Renfroe took a 1-2 slider with one out deep.

I know that he’s not popular and I’m certainly one who didn’t like the signing, but he hits some absolute rockets, even if this homer wasn’t actually one of them. I’m not going to get into it because Saturday’s game was just worthless to even discuss, but he hit a ton of balls hard then too. I don’t know if he’s going to get hot or not, but he’s getting much better swings.

After Singer exited, John Schreiber came in to a 1-1 game and maybe gave us an idea of what might happen on Sunday, but he struggled mightily. He put up kind of a bizarre line of one inning, two hits, two walks and no runs allowed. I talk about sequencing a lot and a timely double play did the trick for him. He ended up leaving the bases loaded with a big strikeout of Marcus Semien.

The crowd at this point was into it. It felt like playoff baseball in May. Schreiber was feeling it too. But it was only the beginning.

In the bottom half of the seventh, the Royals went to work. It started with an MJ Melendez single to break a huge hitless streak. Then after Dairon Blanco as a pinch runner stole second, Kyle Isbel singled him home to give the Royals a lead. That’s when the parade began. Maikel Garcia singled. Bobby Witt Jr. singled to score Isbel. Then Vinnie Pasquantino singled home Garcia. With runners on first and third, Salvador Perez came up.

Wow. Just wow. You know what? We need the whole video here.

If that doesn’t fire you up, I don’t know what will. That made the game 7-1 and put it out of reach and the Royals had the first game of what felt like a bigger series than anything should in early May, but we’re hungry in Kansas City.

Saturday - Rangers 15, Royals 4

There is a bigger picture issue with Michael Wacha and his struggles to discuss, but the reality is that his fastball isn’t getting the job done and that’s what you need to know. Since a great start against the White Sox on April 6, he’s made five starts and they’re not what you want from the highest paid pitcher on the team in terms of AAV. He’s thrown 25.2 innings with a whopping 40 hits allowed and a 7.01 ERA. Opponents are hitting .459 with a .649 SLG against the four-seamer and .538 with a .769 SLG against the cutter. The other three pitches are fine. It might be time to go sinker and curve heavy as the pitches other than his changeup.

Otherwise, what is there to say about this game? Colin Selby struggled. He’s a depth reliever. Matt Sauer got lit up. He’s a Rule 5 guy who was on the road to this at some point with his inability to get the swing and miss. Both of these two pitchers are longer-term projects for the pitching development staff and both had their struggles in the same game. Blowouts happen and there just isn’t much to say about this other than it happened and to move on.

Sunday - Rangers 3, Royals 2

This game hurt more than the blowout loss. Daniel Lynch IV was called on to make a spot start in place of Alec Marsh (who was very good in his AAA rehab start and should be back on Friday). And he struggled in the first. I mentioned Schreiber’s inning on Friday night. Lynch had one on Sunday afternoon. He threw 34 pitches with two walks and a hit allowed. He was absolutely all over the place with only his slider really going in the general direction he wanted it.

But he settled down in a big way and ended up giving the Royals four more scoreless innings after that first. He was working on three-days rest too as he had started in Omaha on Wednesday. He was pulled early with the idea they might need him in the big leagues on Sunday, but still, that’s a heck of an effort. I was generally pleased with what I saw of Lynch. His velocity remains down, and I’m not sure he can succeed long-term at 91-94, but when his slider looks like it did, he can.

I’m not entirely sure why he didn’t throw more sliders as it looked like a slightly different pitch from previously. His velocity on it was down some and the spin rate was up with way more vertical break than we’d seen before. I’m not sure if it’s a new slider, a sweeper that isn’t being classified correctly or an aberration, but I liked it. I’d be interested to see if he can get more usage of that. He got four whiffs on six swings and a lot more chase. His changeup was also good, getting a ton of chase and weak contact. It’s just that pesky fastball that he can’t seem to get to be good enough.

I’ve thought because the fastball isn’t enough that I don’t like the idea of him transitioning to the bullpen, but maybe that slider and changeup could be enough. Of course I’m saying this a day after he shut out a team for five innings that had scored 15 the night before. Still, it was very nice to see him have some big league success because this season has not gone how anyone planned for him so far.

The Royals offense was facing a pitcher in Jon Gray who was way tougher than most people realize. Gray gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in his first start of the year, but in his next six games (five starts) had a 1.24 ERA over 29 innings with 33 strikeouts and eight walks. Those are elite numbers. The Royals were able to get to him a little bit. Well, Witt and Pasquantino were. Witt tripled in the first and Pasquantino got him home with a sacrifice fly. Then Witt doubled in the third and Pasquantino got him home with a single. That was the whole offense, which became an unexpected problem late.

The Royals got through seven innings with a 2-0 lead and were ready to hand the ball over to Schreiber and James McArthur. I will tell you that 96 times out of 100, the game is a Royals win. This one was one of the four, and that stinks. Schreiber gave up a bloop double that was just well placed to lead off the eighth inning and the Rangers productively got him to the plate with a Semien grounder to move him to third and a Corey Seager sacrifice fly to score him. It happens.

In the ninth, McArthur wasn’t sharp, which is abnormal. He hung one to Jonah Heim, who hit the foul pole to tie the game. Then he hit a batter and gave up a single before he was able to get two strikeouts to send the game to the bottom of the ninth tied. He was back out for the 10th, got a strikeout to start the inning with the stupid runner on second rule and then gave up back-to-back singles to give up a run before a double play gave the Royals a 10th-inning shot.

The offense did nothing with it and the game was over, but ultimately, the Royals put the game in the hands of their best players and their best players didn’t come through. I mentioned Schreiber and McArthur’s roles, but in the bottom of the eighth inning, a Vinnie Pasquantino walk led to Blanco pinch running and doing what he does. He stole both second and third to give Perez a shot with less than two outs and an insurance run on third base. Perez struck out and missed a couple of pitches that were very liftable. He just didn’t get the job done. I’m not going to rag on the guy who is third in the majors in RBIs, but he didn’t get it done. Then his closer didn’t either.

We can talk about if Isbel should have bunted or whatever in the 10th. I don’t think I had a problem with him not, but I wouldn’t have had a problem if he had. The reality is the Royals had a chance to win a series against the World Series champs and it was set up with their best to get it done and their best didn’t. It happens. It doesn’t make it feel any better; in fact it feels worse. But it happens. And again, if that situation sets up perfectly like that again, I’ll bet they walk away with a win. Unfortunately, that doesn’t show up in the standings today.

Player of the Week

After a bit of a struggle for the last couple of weeks, Witt seemed to get his groove back, even without being able to pull the ball for power. He hit .381/.500/.571 with two doubles, a triple, eight runs scored and four walks. But he isn’t the player of the week. Perez (even with two pretty rough games to end the week) had a nice week. Garcia was having a good week before a terrible Sunday. Pasquantino broke out of his second slump and had a solid week too. But none were the player of the week. That honor goes, instead, to Michael Massey. He hit .375/.417/.680 with a couple of home runs, four runs scored and seven runs batted in. He’s looked pretty locked in and after a few days of needing to get back into the swing of things, I’d say he’s the every day guy at second now.

What’s Up Next?

The Royals finish their homestand with three against the Brewers, who traded away Corbin Burnes and are missing Brandon Woodruff for the season and Devin Williams for awhile. They’re also without Christian Yelich, Jakob Junis, Wade Miley and Joey Wiemer. And yet, here they are, at the top of the NL Central again. Offensively, William Contreras, Joey Ortiz, Willy Adames, Blake Perkins (yes, same guy the Royals once had) and Rhys Hoskins are leading the charge. They will work a walk, they’ll strike out and they’ll homer. They’ll also score runs, which is a bit of a change in Milwaukee from the last few years, it seems.

On the pitching staff, Freddy Peralta has been his typical self, but they’ve gotten some nice contributions from others, including Joel Payamps with four saves, but other relievers have been picking up quite a bit of slack as well, even with Abner Uribe optioned to AAA with 12 walks in 14.1 innings. The Brewers are a pretty well-oiled machine at this point. Here are this week’s matchups:

• Monday: Cole Ragans vs. Bryse Wilson

• Tuesday: Seth Lugo vs. Colin Rea

• Wednesday: Brady Singer vs. Joe Ross

As has become a weird occurrence, I think the Royals have the edge in all three games, though Rea is one of the starters who has picked up slack in a way I didn’t expect to see. It’ll be a tough series, but another opportunity to show that the Royals can compete with the teams that have proven they can win in the past.

They’ll leave town after the series to head out west where they’ll see the Angels for four and they’ll see Reid Detmers, Griffin Canning, Tyler Anderson and Pablo Sandoval, so three lefties, which has been an issue for this offense. The Angels may be without Mike Trout and noted baseball lover Anthony Rendon, but there’s something about a few spots in their lineup that still have me concerned. I don’t know what the Royals need to do against the Brewers for me to feel good, but they have to split with the Angels and maybe win three of four because that’s a team that’s in a very bad way.