Weekend in Review: Sweeping the Twins Away

The only way the Royals could have had a better weekend is if the offense did just a little more, but they did plenty.

The Royals are now 7-7 over the last 14 games. It feels weird to say that given that all seven losses came in a row, but the fact remains. Their weekend against the Minnesota Twins was just an absolute monster for them. They broke their losing streak in the series finale against the Guardians, but they needed a big weekend to get back on track. They also needed some wins against the Twins to get themselves the belief they could actually beat them. I didn’t expect a sweep, but the Royals took full advantage of a Twins offense that is riding the struggle bus right now.

In three games, they allowed two runs on 14 hits with 30 strikeouts and two walks. The starters gave up two runs on 12 hits in 18 innings. The bullpen gave up no runs on two hits in nine innings. It was about as dominant a weekend as we’ve seen from the Royals staff in awhile. If you go back another game to the finale against Cleveland, the Royals pitching staff has a 0.75 ERA in 36 innings with 38 strikeouts and three walks in their last four games. The offense continues to struggle, though they’ve shown some signs of life. But the pitching staff doing this while the bats were struggling to get going is certainly helpful.

The Current Playoff Situation

I’m going to say this as succinctly as possible. Barring an epic collapse, the Kansas City Royals are going to make the playoffs in 2024.

It’s not a done deal, but they are in a spot where they obviously control their own destiny. They have a six-game lead over the Tigers and Mariners, who are the closest to a playoff spot without being in. But games back doesn’t tell the whole story. I’ve said for some time now that, eventually, the calendar becomes as big of a deal as the games back. We’ve reached that point. The Royals, Tigers and Mariners have 18 games left. The Red Sox and Rays have 19 games left. Last week, I included a chart showing some various Royals records and what their closest competitors would have to do to catch them.

I’ve got a slightly different version of the chart. Let me show it first and then get into the details.

Those five teams at the top are the teams behind them in the Wild Card race. The Twins are the new addition given that they were behind them on Friday but ahead of them now. Below the bold line are teams they’re chasing because they’ve put themselves in a position where they have a chance to earn the top Wild Card spot (and a home series), win the American League Central and maybe even find their way to the best record in the American League.

Let’s start there. The records below the bold line are a bit unlikely because as much as the calendar helps the Royals in the Wild Card race, it hurts them in these. They’re 3.5 games behind the Yankees for the AL’s best record and three games behind Baltimore for the top Wild Card spot. This could change with their upcoming series against the Yankees, but if the Yankees take one of the three games, they’ll win the season series and take the tiebreaker. The Orioles already own the tiebreaker. As you know, the Royals own the tiebreaker over the Guardians. That, along with the fact that they’re simply closer in the division, makes the AL Central the likeliest of these scenarios.

But if you find yourself worried about simply making it, it’s pretty easy to see why it’s not worth worrying. I could have started this chart with an even worse record and felt good about what they have to do the rest of the way. The reality is what I said when I started this section. The worst 18-game stretch for the Royals this season has seen them go 6-12 and you can see above how well other teams would have to play if they did that. What I’m saying is it would require a massive collapse and a team taking advantage of it. I don’t think the Royals could count on teams playing like they did while they were losing seven in a row, but this is happening, so get on board.

And for those who love percentages, here are some playoff odds from the sites I look at regularly:

Fangraphs - 94.6%
Baseball Reference - 95.5%
Baseball Prospectus - 92.1%

The Games

Friday - Royals 5, Twins 0: Ragans Spins a Gem

Zebby Matthews made his big league debut against the Royals and he was pretty solid. He gave up two runs on five hits in five innings. He didn’t walk anyone, but he gave up a home run to MJ Melendez and a double to Michael Massey. Fast forward 24 days and Matthews did a lot of the same things he did in that first start. Only this time, the Royals had his number. They ended up with four runs on nine hits over five innings. He did walk a batter and he struck out four, but he just couldn’t get the outs he was getting in his last start against them.

The Royals' scoring effort was pretty systematic, which was a nice change of pace from their last few games. They scored one in the third, one in the fourth, two in the fifth and then one more in the eighth to add an insurance run. Tommy Pham was the guy who got it started with a 104.8 MPH double to left that scored Kyle Isbel after a walk. The very next inning, Massey connected.

In the next inning, Hunter Renfroe, in his first game back off the IL, hit a soft single to left that scored Bobby Witt Jr. and Melendez to give the Royals a 4-0 lead. They tacked on in the eighth and it started with a rocket single from Renfroe. Dairon Blanco pinch ran and reached second on a wild pitch. He went to third on a groundout and then scored on a Yuli Gurriel sacrifice fly. Insurance runs are great, but they were entirely unnecessary.

Why is that? It’s because Cole Ragans was outstanding and gives a whole lot of hope moving forward. The final line was really good: 6 IP, 4 H, 7 K, 1 BB. He obviously didn’t give up a run. His velocity continues to be down, but I’m getting the distinct impression that some of it is by design. He averaged 95.2 MPH on his four-seamer in this one, but he reached back for 98.1 MPH and was 97+ a few times as well. This feels very different than those few starts where his maximum velocity wasn’t even approaching this number. Yes, I think he’s tired, but I think he’s figured out pacing in a way that young starters always need to figure out eventually.

It wasn’t his highest whiff game with just 10 in 46 swings, but he also got 17 called strikes and only allowed four hard-hit balls all game long. The Twins have a pretty even platoon split this season, and even though they’re missing Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, that’s still a pretty solid lineup. They’re struggling right now, but that doesn’t mean that the game still isn’t being played and the pitcher doesn’t have to execute.

I’ve noticed there’s been some notion that Ragans isn’t that great. And while he isn’t going to win the Cy Young this season, he’s having a fantastic year. I’m going to give you his numbers and their rank in the American League:

167.1 IP (9th)
29.6% K (2nd)
21.3% K-BB (4th)
3.33 ERA (9th)
2.94 FIP (2nd)
4.5 fWAR (2nd)

It depends a bit on who is doing the voting, but there is a world where Ragans ends up finishing in the top-five of Cy Young voting and maybe even the top-three if they go more toward WAR. He still has four starts left to either move up or down in that, but he’s having a legitimately great season.

Saturday - Royals 4, Twins 2: The Other Side of a Bullpen Collapse

Bailey Ober was fantastic. He was throwing strikes and the Royals offense couldn’t do anything. Everything was working for him. Robbie Grossman hit a line drive single off Edouard Julien’s glove at second in the third inning and that was literally it. Ober retired six of the first seven he faced and then the next 15 after the Grossman single.

That got him through seven innings on 83 pitches. And when the Royals came to bat in the bottom of the eighth, the bullpen door swung open and Jhoan Duran came out. I like using your best reliever in the biggest spots, especially when your best reliever is so much better than the rest. I think you can argue if Duran is actually better than Griffin Jax this season, but that’s another story. There are two things at play here. I think it’s less impressive managing when you have multiple good relievers, like the Twins do. And I think the fact that Rocco Baldelli called the 6-7-8 hitters the big spot for Duran is weird.

But he did strike out Massey with a 100.5 MPH four-seamer on the seventh pitch. After that, he was done with success. Freddy Fermin lined a single to center to start things off. Grossman was hit by a pitch and Dairon Blanco pinch ran. Then it was time for Isbel. I’ll admit to not loving Isbel hitting here, but he came through as it feels like he does so often. He hit a line drive to left to score Fermin and give the Royals a run and life. And that was it for Duran. He face four batters, retired one and was making way for Jax, who has been so good this year.

Jax started Pham with a sweeper up and in that caught the zone to make it 0-1. Then he threw a much better one that Pham dribbled to shortstop.

The Twins argued for obstruction, but there was no obstruction here. Brooks Lee, the Twins shortstop probably should have pocketed that ball. Would Correa have made that play? I don’t think anyone would have honestly, but I think Correa would have held on to the ball and the run wouldn’t have scored. The other thing is that Kyle Farmer playing first for the first time this season after pinch hitting for Carlos Santana. It was his 115th inning at the position in his career. An experience first baseman probably blocks that ball too.

If you believe what happened next would have happened anyway, it didn’t matter, though, because Witt came through with the VERY loud crowd on its feet.

Salvador Perez would the hardest ball of the inning for an out before Melendez lined a single to center and Witt eventually was thrown out at the plate to end the inning, but it did score Pham before to give the Royals four runs in the inning and they turned a 2-0 deficit into a 4-2 lead that Lucas Erceg would protect and needed just 11 pitches to do it.

But the hero of the game was Daniel Lynch IV. Alec Marsh started and he was solid. He gave up two runs over five innings. Lynch came in to provide some innings for a relatively short start, and he delivered. Over three innings, he gave up just one hit and struck out four. He needed just 33 pitches to do it. He led with the slider, and it was really good. The Twins didn’t hit a single one in play. They whiffed on three and fouled off four. They were chasing it all over the plate. He also had a really good sinker that was getting some weak contact.

This game doesn’t go the Royals way if Lynch comes in and pitches differently. The Twins are struggling, but Lynch would have gotten any team with the way he pitched on Saturday night. That’s great to see out of the bullpen. I wasn't sold on him as a reliever, but this role that he’s currently in might suit him perfectly.

Sunday - Royals 2, Twins 0: A Sac Fly, a Dribbler and Another Shutout

This is probably the most mundane win of the weekend. Michael Wacha found himself in trouble early. He gave up a pretty well hit ball to center to get the first out that was followed by a single to right. Then Trevor Larnach was up and he took the third straight four-seamer on the outer edge and turned on it. He hit a rocket to right that went over Renfroe’s head. Jose Miranda, the runner on first was on his horse.

That’s just a perfect relay. Great job by Renfroe to play the ball off the wall and a great job by Maikel Garcia to make that turn. And it was a great job by Fermin to just leave his glove there and make the tag. I don’t know how many times we’ve seen a throw beat a runner, but a good slide gets around a tag where they’re trying to move their glove with the runner. Sometimes, you just need to put your glove in front of the base and let him tag himself. Wacha did walk the next hitter, but got Royce Lewis swinging to end the inning.

Wacha allowed two more hits, both to Christian Vazquez. And both of those hits were followed by a double play to erase him. He didn’t walk or hit anyone. So after that one scoring opportunity, the Twins didn’t put a single runner past first base against him. His final line was one of his best of the year: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 7 K, 1 BB. He was outstanding with just five hard-hit balls against him, which means only two came after the first inning. The top four Royals starters now have ERAs of 3.08, 3.33, 3.35 and 3.34. That’s what I’d call impressive.

Kris Bubic was excellent in the eighth and was able to turn it over to Erceg for the ninth. He wasn’t as good as he was on Saturday and the Twins finally did get a runner to second after a third hit by Vazquez and then he advanced on a ground ball, but he didn’t get to third and the Royals had a 2-0 win. But how they got to two runs is kind of interesting.

They both came in the fifth, and it all started with a Melendez walk. It should be noted that he had hits in all three games this series and is still hitting .268/.329/.500 since mid-June. I know there are people who think he needs to be sent to Siberia or something, but he’s been more than good for a long time now. It’s time to get off that line of thinking that he needs to go. For now at least. Anyway, Fermin singled to move him to second and Garcia hit one to second that ended up a hit for him to load the bases. But, ugh, Garrett Hampson was up.

All he did was put one of his best swings of the year on the ball and hit a ball to the warning track that would have been a grand slam in 23 of 30 picks. This game was played in one of the seven, though, so he’d have to settle for a sacrifice fly. With one out, Pham walked in a great plate appearance. It was set up for Witt to do something special. Unfortunately he struck out facing the reliever, Cole Sands. But Perez got to do something. It may not have been special, but it was interesting.

Yep, that’s an infield single. It’s not as rare as you might think. He has 10 this year now actually. But that’s the sort of hit that was sinking the Royals a week ago and now they’re sinking other teams with it. I wish they’d have been able to get a big two-out hit, but Massey, pinch hitting for Paul DeJong, hit a ball well, but not well enough and that was it for the inning. Really, that was it for the game, but it was enough to get a sweep.

After starting 4-2 in The Gauntlet™, they lost those seven in a row, but now they’re 8-9 in the first 17 with three to play this week to determine just how they finish this brutal stretch.

Player of the Week

This might be the shortest Player of the Week section of the year because it was bleak. The only starter who went twice was Wacha, and while he was good, two runs on nine hits over 12 innings only gets real consideration if he strikes out a bunch of guys. And he didn’t. So the winner this week is the lesser of all evils, Pham. He hit .273/.333/.500. It’s a wonder they went 4-2 with that being the best they could get.

The Week Ahead

In so many ways, the games have reached a point where they’re a bit less important due to how big their lead is. But as I mentioned above, the Yankees are in play, so this series is still pretty darn big. It also qualifies as big for a lot of the same reason that the series against the Twins was big. The team will survive and be fine if they don’t handle the Yankees, but I feel like it will be a huge confidence boost if they do handle them and kill some of the demons from earlier this season.

The Yankees offense isn’t especially deep, but they’ve been helped quite a bit by the addition of Jazz Chisholm Jr. (who I absolutely did NOT want) and Austin Wells turning into a legitimate offensive force. Anthony Rizzo is back and Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, so when you include the greatness that is Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, they actually do have the potential for a deep lineup, but they’re prone to struggles more than you’d expect for a team like them.

Where it’s interesting for the Royals is that the bullpen has struggled some. Clay Holmes has a bunch of blown saves even though he hasn’t really pitched that poorly. They’ve gotten some really strong performances from Tommy Kahnle, Luke Weaver, Tim Hill and Jake Cousins, but their big bullpen deal for Mark Leiter Jr. hasn’t worked out too well. Getting Clarke Schmidt back is going to be huge for the rotation, but it feels like the bullpen is where the Royals can do damage if they can’t get to the starters.

Speaking of them, let’s look at the matchups.

• Monday: RHP Brady Singer vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

• Tuesday: RHP Seth Lugo vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

• Wednesday: LHP Cole Ragans vs. RHP Luis Gil

It’s been a wild ride for Rodon lately. He has alternated very good starts and those are that less than very good. He hasn’t had a disaster or anything, but in his last six starts, he’s gone back and forth. If you believe in patterns, that’s great news for the Royals because he gave up one run on one hit over six innings with 11 strikeouts in his last start. I’m not sure how much we can count on patterns, especially with how he pitched against the Royals in Kansas City back in June when he gave up just one run over seven innings. Still, he’s prone to blowups, and the Royals have gotten him before, including a start to end last season when he didn’t get a single out before he was pulled.

In Stroman, the Yankees have a big-time struggling arm. He threw 5.2 shutout innings against the Royals in that series in June, but has a 5.54 ERA since then with 80 hits allowed in 63.1 innings. He just hasn’t been good at all and a lot of that has come because he’s struggled to get the swing and miss. Gil has been outstanding this year, but there are signs of wear and tear. He’s now thrown 130.2 innings a year after he threw four total innings and has a career-high of 96. He’s coming off an outstanding start against the Cubs, but I’m not sure it’s a guarantee he’s back on track in spite of how good he is.

In order to catch the Yankees, the Royals almost need a sweep. They can’t afford to lose a game or else they lose the season series and then they have to win one more game than the Yankees. Being four back in the loss column means it becomes very difficult if they can’t make up more than one game during this series and have to win an additional game to pass them. Again, they don’t need a sweep to make the playoffs, but Cleveland is headed to Chicago to play the White Sox, and even though they’re just 5-5 against the worst team ever assembled, that’s still a big ask to assume Cleveland loses more than a game, and even one might be more than they drop.

That series against the Yankees marks the end of The Gauntlet™, so the series against the Pirates feels a whole lot smaller than anything we’ve seen in awhile. Their starting rotation is good, but it looks right now like the Royals might miss Paul Skenes. They will, however, get Mitch Keller and probably Jared Jones. Jones was excellent yesterday against the Nationals, but he struggled in his first two starts off the IL. The Pirates are flailing some right now, but that sort of starting pitching can make for a tough series against anyone, and if the series against the Yankees doesn’t go as well as they hope, they’ll need to get back on track against a team playing out the string.