Snagging one of three from the Dodgers beat the odds and the math. They had one ugly final three innings, one ugly full game and then a beautiful series finale.
Sounds like your tune is changing on Keller a little bit. Mine is as well to be honest. I think re-signing him is pretty much out of the question now…and he is probably waiting until free agency at this point anyway…man non tendering him may be the best play. I don’t think they will because as you said….the royals are still in the “someone has to throw the innings” phase of this thing. I almost thing they are forced to keep him around next year just for insurance. IDK, its amazing how better we feel about the team as the year has gone on…and IDK if its because of how it started or what. I just don’t think you can it back with Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Keller, and Grienke again next year and call it good. Long ways to go…we’ll see what they do. But I’m all in on Gallen and Clevinger if they decide to throw some resources at the problem. And who knows if Gallen is even available. But man, as terrible as I think Arizona is you look at there record (better than the Royals), look at the rotation (better than the royals)….and I think “come on royals.” Lol
Keller had been good enough in his first three years (and great in his third year, albeit a short season) that I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and see how this year went. Unfortunately, it's been far too much of a mixture of his 2021 but with some of what we saw in 2018-2020 still. For a reasonable cost - $4.83 million - you deal with that, but if it gets to $8, $10, $12 million, I just don't see it and there's a precedent set that simply showing up could get him one of those numbers in arbitration. So then it just becomes a question of what do you do? It's a very different situation but when I started thinking about the numbers on Maikel Franco, I thought they might non-tender him and a lot of people figured there was no chance, but when the salary gets up there on guys who don't justify it, the Royals have cut bait in the past. So we'll see what happens.
But yes, dream of dreams is Gallen is available. Pair him with Singer, let Lynch and Bubic fill out two of the other spots and then throw enough spaghetti against the wall to find the rest.
I think my biggest fear going into next year is that they don’t have the pitching depth. Singer’s development has been huge for next years outlook. But man, even if they run it back with who they have now….they’ve been “relatively” healthy this year. They are almost to the point on the offensive side where an injury to Salvy we’ll say won’t derail them. But an injury to Singer or Lynch would probably derail them next year at this point.
Yeah, I think that's a very fair fear. I'm not sure they've been THAT healthy. Lynch has needed two IL stints. Heasley needed one. Greinke needed one. Salvy's been out quite a bit. They lost both Tayor and Isbel to the covid list for awhile. Gallagher and Olivares with quad injuries and Olivares with two. Brentz pitching hurt to start the year and now being out all year. Staumont had the neck injury. Garrett missed time. They've had their share.
True, that’s probably fair. I think they may be in line with other teams injury wise so not necessarily an outlier. This year is probably what too expect injury wise though next year as well. You’ll always have some issues. But besides Bowlan at least no TJ type injuries so far.
Hey David, enjoy the reads and also listen to you on Sorens show. My question is , How come nobody ever talks about Eaton yet? Dude has been outstanding in the field! Making tough plays look very easy. Hope he's here to stay. He's my favorite of the kids so far. Hard nosed, blue collar player! Enjoy the vacation
It's a good question, Shane, and I'm at fault of forgetting about him a little too. I think the reason is he isn't as highly regarded as the rest and has also not performed at as high of a level as many of the rest. But at worst, he's an incredibly useful player and has the tools to be more than "just" that. I think he's probably not quite as ready offensively, but he's a solid player. I actually wanted to include his diving catch yesterday, but I kept getting messages that the post was too long for email. So I took it out and then the email came out and the post was already too long for email anyway. I should have kept it!
"The point here is that it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Keller is wanting $8-$10 million. Can you bring him back at that cost?" My answer, and it seems obvious to me, is no. He simply isn't a dependable starter. Maybe they try him in the bullpen next season and he can contribute that way. Otherwise, it's time for him to move on. I don't know if, as a Rule 5 pick, you can expect more from him. There's always a chance some other team can make him better, but clearly it's not happening in KC. On another note, I liked Taylor leading off Sunday. I think our offense will become more consistent if we get the lineup settled. Perez and Melendez should be #4 or #5 hitters at best, not #1 and #3 as they currently are.
I obviously agree on Keller, but I personally disagree on Melendez. I'm fine if he is a middle of the order bat, but guys who can take walks and get on base *and* do damage are pretty valuable at the top of the order. My regular lineup right now would probably be:
Melendez
Witt Jr.
Pasquantino
Perez
Pratto
Taylor
Massey
Eaton/Isbel
Lopez
I'd get Rooker in there for Pratto against some tough lefties with Vinnie sliding to first. I'd let Dozier play third against lefties (.352 OBP vs. LHP) and call that good. No reason not to utilize the platoon when they have guys who fit into those roles perfectly.
Thanks for the reply and have a great vacation. Something I've thought abut recently -- the Royals haven't had an MVP since 1980, and haven't had a Cy Young winner since 1989.
I'm not seeing much (yet) at the plate from Pratto, Rooker and Eaton. A small sample size, to be sure. But I haven't noticed any flashes that they're going to be something special. It seems like they take good pitches and swing at bad pitches.
How can a team get shut out 15 times in a season? How can the same team not get a hit for 2-1/3 innings against a starter who left the game early because of shoulder fatigue and reduced velocity? And how can that team also go 1-23 on RISP for a three-game series? Anyone who says "the offense will be OK" isn't watching the same team that I am. But then, the Royals finally decided to move Keller to the bullpen, so maybe there's still hope -- except who can replace him in the rotation that'd do better?
Good analysis of the rotation. I pretty much agree...can't pay Keller what he will probably command, though I like him overall. Singer (wow again!), Bubic and Lynch are a good start. I keep hoping that some of the other highly-touted young pitchers step forward, but we may need to trade or go free agent to fill the rotation. Unless Heasley or Kowar get it together, or one of the AA guys make a big jump. I was so high on Hernandez, but he has disappointed this year.
Also wanted to say I agree on Massey...seems like he is justifying what we were hearing earlier this year. And need to find a place for Eaton...even if it is 4th OF/utility. The guy is a PLAYER (nod to Rusty Kuntz).
Yep, they definitely need more, Clark. The minor league season doesn't end in early September at least, so there's a chance for *someone* to have a good last six or seven starts and put themselves in contention for next year, but I can't say I'd expect it at this point. They've got some work to do this winter.
Doggone it, Daniel Lynch! I know the Dodgers have a monster lineup. I get it. But were all those 2-out walks, especially the ones to lefties, really necessary? No wonder it took you 76 pitches to get through four innings even though you only gave up one hit. C'mon, man, I know you can do better!
To your eternal, everlasting credit you found a way to give up zero runs in 5 IP despite throwing 105 pitches. But brother, that's definitely doin' things the hard way! It's also leaving behind a whole lot of work for your bullpen to do, which is rarely a good idea - as we were quickly reminded. Again.
At least Isbel ruined Gonsolin's perfecto and Vinnie broke up his no-no. I suppose that's something….
Vinnie and MJ continue to see their OPS's balloon, while Dozier's continues to plummet. As David put it recently, "I don't really mind seeing Dozier on this team…" which at the time struck me as rather a lukewarm endorsement but I'm right there with him.
Problem is they really should have traded him at the deadline. I hope I'm wrong but I have serious trouble believing his trade value will ever be higher than it was two or three weeks ago.
That would have cleared the way for putting BWJ at 3B and Nicky at SS, where they belong. I have to wonder if Matheny truly can't see that. Maybe he's following orders from above. We should remember that for six long years Dayton held on to his fantasy of "Mondesi is our SS for the next 10 years." Maybe he has a new fantasy now….
David: here is the average OPS in MLB over the past three seasons plus this one:
2019: .758
2020: .740
2021: .738
2022: .709
I know this has been cussed and discussed to hell and back a thousand times. But I'd really like to get your thoughts/theories/speculations as to why this is happening.
Maybe it's just the normal yin and yang of baseball, but it feels like a fairly strong trend. Maybe there's more to it than that?
That sounds really interesting to me. You wouldn't happen to have a link to that article that you could toss my way, would you? I'd really like to read it!
Found that article. Really interesting stuff! And slightly depressing.
I'm totally with you in your opposition to banning the shift. For 5+ decades, even during the mid-to-late '60s when pitchers ruled the Earth, I've seen far too many hitters intentionally go to the opposite field to believe that that's suddenly become impossible now. No one will ever convince me of that.
I understand the rationale: "We don't care if Joe Blow gets a single to LF once in a while as long as he isn't pounding it over the RF wall." My answer is that you would start to care if he did it three times in one game, with a couple of runs scored and maybe an RBI or two. Joe Blow needs to do that more than "once in a while" to get them out of that shift.
The next objection is, "Yeah but that's too hard. MLB hitters can't do that." My answer is that yes they can, if they're willing to work on it. And as I understand it, being a MLB ballplayer isn't supposed to be easy in the first place.
Everything you said about the current technologically-driven revolution in pitching argues in favor of hitters using the entire field more and more and even more.
As far as the pitcher's mound goes: if something absolutely has to change with it, I'd much rather see them lower it even further rather than relocating it.
So if they truly nontender Keller this off season, why the hell didn’t they try to deal him at the deadline. These games mean nothing,, getting something for Keller might mean something.
For the last two years, people have complained incessantly about how Singer needed a third pitch. Now that he's having success, its easy to say its because he finally started throwing a change-up. But... imo very little of his success is because of the change. He doesn't throw it often enough especially in "high leverage" counts for a hitter to worry about. Its basically a show pitch, and deservedly so because its not a quality pitch like his other two. When he needs an out or a put away pitch, its back to the sinker or slider. The latest article from Ann Rogers attributes his success to a changed grip on his sinker which gives him better control over location. Mebbe so. Few have that kind of movement on a fastball. All this team lacks to become a contender is starting pitching. Move Hernandez and Heasley to the pen. Maybe bring in a few others to bolster the pen, but with Barlow and Coleman, the back of the pen is good. We need 2 quality MLB starters added and we are ready to be competitive. The offense is real. The kids can hit. I think people are underestimating Massey. I love his swing. The only reason I'm not screaming about how good he can be is that Pasquantino, Melendez and Jr are soooo damn good.
Coming into this season I was really optimistic about Hernandez. But then reality happened.
Now I'm thinking (hoping, maybe?) that he and Heasley might be pretty decent candidates to become the "bulk guys" that David and I were talking about a few days ago.
There were some definite warning signs last year with a lack of ability to miss bats and K/9. Hopefully going to the pen and elevating his fastball a few mph to 100 can alleviate that.
I mentioned just a few days ago that Amir Garrett strikes me as a guy whose emotions control him rather than the other way around. It seems as if he's constantly trying to right some imagined wrong or prove his manhood. Or establish his macho-ness bona fides. Or something equally irrelevant to pitching effectively and consistently.
So I'm not the least bit surprised that he's been suspended for three games for throwing something at a fan in Chicago a couple of weeks ago. Nobody else should be, either. I really don't think they need a so-called "veteran" like this on the team. Absolutely the wrong guy for the youngish pitchers to emulate. Especially with his 25 BB in 31 innings.
Garrett appealed his suspension, so he was able to pitch Monday night, even though the suspension was supposed to start that day.
They were talking about Tony Oliva on the telecast tonight, and I couldn't help but reminisce about how fun it was to watch him hit (unless he was playing against my team!) In the batter's box he just looked like a human being who had been created for the sole purpose of hitting baseballs really hard ALL THE FREAKIN' TIME.
When the Twins had him and Killebrew and Bob Allison hitting back-to-back-to-back, my guess is that there were a lot of starting pitchers who had nightmares the night before facing them. And I can't say that I really would have blamed them....
Kris Bubic Monday vs the Twins' first 18 batters: five hits, 1 ER.
After the first 18 batters:
10 PA
5 hits
1BB
3 ER
1 blown lead
5 outs, 4 of which Bubic was responsible for. (The other one happened when Eaton threw a guy out at 2nd base.) As I understand it, 4 outs in 10 PA's isn't good.
If a team drafts four pitchers, you can usually expect one to exceed expectations, one to more or less meet expectations, one to not work out and one to get hurt. I think we’ve seen that with Singer, Bubic, Kowar and Bowlan.
I really think Bubic is talented enough to at least stick as a swingman on a good team. He’s struggled this year after pitching really, really well in 2020 and 2021.
Personally, I think if one out of four becomes a solid #2 to #4 starter and another one becomes a decent reliever, you've done pretty well. But reasonable folks can disagree on that...
Maybe I'm just haunted by the ghosts of all the Roy Branches and Colt Griffins and Kyle Zimmers and Jim Pittsleys and SO MANY more.
It would be interesting to go back through the history of all the pitchers the Royals have drafted, and to see how many of them "met expectations" (however defined.) My very strong gut feel is that it would be less than 10%.
What I meant to say is that it would be interesting to read the results of SOMEBODY ELSE'S painstaking and extremely time-consuming research on that! 😱
They must have an extra underemployed nerd or two sitting around at Baseball Savant, right...???? Let's give those folks something to keep them busy for the next several years.
I have little doubt that the Royals' pitching development success has been below the median rate over, say, the last 20 years. But anecdotally, I think it's also important to factor in how few teams have rotations full of homegrown pitchers.
The Royals and Cubs set the model for success: Draft and develop your own hitters, and trade the excess for established starting pitchers. I think we'll see the same thing happen this time around.
Yeah, it definitely hasn't been real long since they last made those kinds of trades. (Vargas, Shields, Volquez.) And it's impossible to say that didn't work out.
I still maintain that the smaller a team's revenue, the more important it is to have at least some of those homegrown guys. Which means you have to be able to develop and coach them.
I go back to Saberhagen & Gubicza (homegrown) combined with guys like Danny Jackson, Gura, Leibrandt (trade acquisitions.) You gotta have some of both, I suppose. But I'll point out that the lead dog of that crew was Saberhagen, one of the homegrown guys.
One other thought: having spent all of these high draft picks on pitchers, the Royals simply can't afford to waste all those picks by failing to coach and develop those guys properly. They just can't.
Good work David!
Sounds like your tune is changing on Keller a little bit. Mine is as well to be honest. I think re-signing him is pretty much out of the question now…and he is probably waiting until free agency at this point anyway…man non tendering him may be the best play. I don’t think they will because as you said….the royals are still in the “someone has to throw the innings” phase of this thing. I almost thing they are forced to keep him around next year just for insurance. IDK, its amazing how better we feel about the team as the year has gone on…and IDK if its because of how it started or what. I just don’t think you can it back with Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Keller, and Grienke again next year and call it good. Long ways to go…we’ll see what they do. But I’m all in on Gallen and Clevinger if they decide to throw some resources at the problem. And who knows if Gallen is even available. But man, as terrible as I think Arizona is you look at there record (better than the Royals), look at the rotation (better than the royals)….and I think “come on royals.” Lol
Enjoy your vacation!
Keller had been good enough in his first three years (and great in his third year, albeit a short season) that I was willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and see how this year went. Unfortunately, it's been far too much of a mixture of his 2021 but with some of what we saw in 2018-2020 still. For a reasonable cost - $4.83 million - you deal with that, but if it gets to $8, $10, $12 million, I just don't see it and there's a precedent set that simply showing up could get him one of those numbers in arbitration. So then it just becomes a question of what do you do? It's a very different situation but when I started thinking about the numbers on Maikel Franco, I thought they might non-tender him and a lot of people figured there was no chance, but when the salary gets up there on guys who don't justify it, the Royals have cut bait in the past. So we'll see what happens.
But yes, dream of dreams is Gallen is available. Pair him with Singer, let Lynch and Bubic fill out two of the other spots and then throw enough spaghetti against the wall to find the rest.
I think my biggest fear going into next year is that they don’t have the pitching depth. Singer’s development has been huge for next years outlook. But man, even if they run it back with who they have now….they’ve been “relatively” healthy this year. They are almost to the point on the offensive side where an injury to Salvy we’ll say won’t derail them. But an injury to Singer or Lynch would probably derail them next year at this point.
Yeah, I think that's a very fair fear. I'm not sure they've been THAT healthy. Lynch has needed two IL stints. Heasley needed one. Greinke needed one. Salvy's been out quite a bit. They lost both Tayor and Isbel to the covid list for awhile. Gallagher and Olivares with quad injuries and Olivares with two. Brentz pitching hurt to start the year and now being out all year. Staumont had the neck injury. Garrett missed time. They've had their share.
True, that’s probably fair. I think they may be in line with other teams injury wise so not necessarily an outlier. This year is probably what too expect injury wise though next year as well. You’ll always have some issues. But besides Bowlan at least no TJ type injuries so far.
Oh and totally forgot Mondesi. That's a big one too.
Is it tho? Who didn’t see that one coming? (Only people who didn’t see coming was entire Royals organization apparently)
Hey David, enjoy the reads and also listen to you on Sorens show. My question is , How come nobody ever talks about Eaton yet? Dude has been outstanding in the field! Making tough plays look very easy. Hope he's here to stay. He's my favorite of the kids so far. Hard nosed, blue collar player! Enjoy the vacation
It's a good question, Shane, and I'm at fault of forgetting about him a little too. I think the reason is he isn't as highly regarded as the rest and has also not performed at as high of a level as many of the rest. But at worst, he's an incredibly useful player and has the tools to be more than "just" that. I think he's probably not quite as ready offensively, but he's a solid player. I actually wanted to include his diving catch yesterday, but I kept getting messages that the post was too long for email. So I took it out and then the email came out and the post was already too long for email anyway. I should have kept it!
"The point here is that it isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Keller is wanting $8-$10 million. Can you bring him back at that cost?" My answer, and it seems obvious to me, is no. He simply isn't a dependable starter. Maybe they try him in the bullpen next season and he can contribute that way. Otherwise, it's time for him to move on. I don't know if, as a Rule 5 pick, you can expect more from him. There's always a chance some other team can make him better, but clearly it's not happening in KC. On another note, I liked Taylor leading off Sunday. I think our offense will become more consistent if we get the lineup settled. Perez and Melendez should be #4 or #5 hitters at best, not #1 and #3 as they currently are.
I obviously agree on Keller, but I personally disagree on Melendez. I'm fine if he is a middle of the order bat, but guys who can take walks and get on base *and* do damage are pretty valuable at the top of the order. My regular lineup right now would probably be:
Melendez
Witt Jr.
Pasquantino
Perez
Pratto
Taylor
Massey
Eaton/Isbel
Lopez
I'd get Rooker in there for Pratto against some tough lefties with Vinnie sliding to first. I'd let Dozier play third against lefties (.352 OBP vs. LHP) and call that good. No reason not to utilize the platoon when they have guys who fit into those roles perfectly.
Thanks for the reply and have a great vacation. Something I've thought abut recently -- the Royals haven't had an MVP since 1980, and haven't had a Cy Young winner since 1989.
Greinke won it in 2009!
Forgot about that! I stand corrected.
I'm not seeing much (yet) at the plate from Pratto, Rooker and Eaton. A small sample size, to be sure. But I haven't noticed any flashes that they're going to be something special. It seems like they take good pitches and swing at bad pitches.
How can a team get shut out 15 times in a season? How can the same team not get a hit for 2-1/3 innings against a starter who left the game early because of shoulder fatigue and reduced velocity? And how can that team also go 1-23 on RISP for a three-game series? Anyone who says "the offense will be OK" isn't watching the same team that I am. But then, the Royals finally decided to move Keller to the bullpen, so maybe there's still hope -- except who can replace him in the rotation that'd do better?
Enjoy the time off, David!
Good analysis of the rotation. I pretty much agree...can't pay Keller what he will probably command, though I like him overall. Singer (wow again!), Bubic and Lynch are a good start. I keep hoping that some of the other highly-touted young pitchers step forward, but we may need to trade or go free agent to fill the rotation. Unless Heasley or Kowar get it together, or one of the AA guys make a big jump. I was so high on Hernandez, but he has disappointed this year.
Also wanted to say I agree on Massey...seems like he is justifying what we were hearing earlier this year. And need to find a place for Eaton...even if it is 4th OF/utility. The guy is a PLAYER (nod to Rusty Kuntz).
Yep, they definitely need more, Clark. The minor league season doesn't end in early September at least, so there's a chance for *someone* to have a good last six or seven starts and put themselves in contention for next year, but I can't say I'd expect it at this point. They've got some work to do this winter.
Doggone it, Daniel Lynch! I know the Dodgers have a monster lineup. I get it. But were all those 2-out walks, especially the ones to lefties, really necessary? No wonder it took you 76 pitches to get through four innings even though you only gave up one hit. C'mon, man, I know you can do better!
To your eternal, everlasting credit you found a way to give up zero runs in 5 IP despite throwing 105 pitches. But brother, that's definitely doin' things the hard way! It's also leaving behind a whole lot of work for your bullpen to do, which is rarely a good idea - as we were quickly reminded. Again.
At least Isbel ruined Gonsolin's perfecto and Vinnie broke up his no-no. I suppose that's something….
Vinnie and MJ continue to see their OPS's balloon, while Dozier's continues to plummet. As David put it recently, "I don't really mind seeing Dozier on this team…" which at the time struck me as rather a lukewarm endorsement but I'm right there with him.
Problem is they really should have traded him at the deadline. I hope I'm wrong but I have serious trouble believing his trade value will ever be higher than it was two or three weeks ago.
That would have cleared the way for putting BWJ at 3B and Nicky at SS, where they belong. I have to wonder if Matheny truly can't see that. Maybe he's following orders from above. We should remember that for six long years Dayton held on to his fantasy of "Mondesi is our SS for the next 10 years." Maybe he has a new fantasy now….
David: here is the average OPS in MLB over the past three seasons plus this one:
2019: .758
2020: .740
2021: .738
2022: .709
I know this has been cussed and discussed to hell and back a thousand times. But I'd really like to get your thoughts/theories/speculations as to why this is happening.
Maybe it's just the normal yin and yang of baseball, but it feels like a fairly strong trend. Maybe there's more to it than that?
I wrote a long article about it last year. The gist of it is that pitchers are REALLY, REALLY good.
That sounds really interesting to me. You wouldn't happen to have a link to that article that you could toss my way, would you? I'd really like to read it!
It’s back from May of last year if you want to scroll through. I don’t have the link handy.
Found that article. Really interesting stuff! And slightly depressing.
I'm totally with you in your opposition to banning the shift. For 5+ decades, even during the mid-to-late '60s when pitchers ruled the Earth, I've seen far too many hitters intentionally go to the opposite field to believe that that's suddenly become impossible now. No one will ever convince me of that.
I understand the rationale: "We don't care if Joe Blow gets a single to LF once in a while as long as he isn't pounding it over the RF wall." My answer is that you would start to care if he did it three times in one game, with a couple of runs scored and maybe an RBI or two. Joe Blow needs to do that more than "once in a while" to get them out of that shift.
The next objection is, "Yeah but that's too hard. MLB hitters can't do that." My answer is that yes they can, if they're willing to work on it. And as I understand it, being a MLB ballplayer isn't supposed to be easy in the first place.
Everything you said about the current technologically-driven revolution in pitching argues in favor of hitters using the entire field more and more and even more.
As far as the pitcher's mound goes: if something absolutely has to change with it, I'd much rather see them lower it even further rather than relocating it.
Thanks for your great recaps! Have an excellent vacation!
So if they truly nontender Keller this off season, why the hell didn’t they try to deal him at the deadline. These games mean nothing,, getting something for Keller might mean something.
Not dealing someone doesn’t equal them not trying to deal him.
I think I'm starting to get Lesky-ized. I absolutely knew you were going to say that before I even looked at your reply! 😁
For the last two years, people have complained incessantly about how Singer needed a third pitch. Now that he's having success, its easy to say its because he finally started throwing a change-up. But... imo very little of his success is because of the change. He doesn't throw it often enough especially in "high leverage" counts for a hitter to worry about. Its basically a show pitch, and deservedly so because its not a quality pitch like his other two. When he needs an out or a put away pitch, its back to the sinker or slider. The latest article from Ann Rogers attributes his success to a changed grip on his sinker which gives him better control over location. Mebbe so. Few have that kind of movement on a fastball. All this team lacks to become a contender is starting pitching. Move Hernandez and Heasley to the pen. Maybe bring in a few others to bolster the pen, but with Barlow and Coleman, the back of the pen is good. We need 2 quality MLB starters added and we are ready to be competitive. The offense is real. The kids can hit. I think people are underestimating Massey. I love his swing. The only reason I'm not screaming about how good he can be is that Pasquantino, Melendez and Jr are soooo damn good.
Coming into this season I was really optimistic about Hernandez. But then reality happened.
Now I'm thinking (hoping, maybe?) that he and Heasley might be pretty decent candidates to become the "bulk guys" that David and I were talking about a few days ago.
There were some definite warning signs last year with a lack of ability to miss bats and K/9. Hopefully going to the pen and elevating his fastball a few mph to 100 can alleviate that.
I mentioned just a few days ago that Amir Garrett strikes me as a guy whose emotions control him rather than the other way around. It seems as if he's constantly trying to right some imagined wrong or prove his manhood. Or establish his macho-ness bona fides. Or something equally irrelevant to pitching effectively and consistently.
So I'm not the least bit surprised that he's been suspended for three games for throwing something at a fan in Chicago a couple of weeks ago. Nobody else should be, either. I really don't think they need a so-called "veteran" like this on the team. Absolutely the wrong guy for the youngish pitchers to emulate. Especially with his 25 BB in 31 innings.
Garrett appealed his suspension, so he was able to pitch Monday night, even though the suspension was supposed to start that day.
They were talking about Tony Oliva on the telecast tonight, and I couldn't help but reminisce about how fun it was to watch him hit (unless he was playing against my team!) In the batter's box he just looked like a human being who had been created for the sole purpose of hitting baseballs really hard ALL THE FREAKIN' TIME.
When the Twins had him and Killebrew and Bob Allison hitting back-to-back-to-back, my guess is that there were a lot of starting pitchers who had nightmares the night before facing them. And I can't say that I really would have blamed them....
Kris Bubic Monday vs the Twins' first 18 batters: five hits, 1 ER.
After the first 18 batters:
10 PA
5 hits
1BB
3 ER
1 blown lead
5 outs, 4 of which Bubic was responsible for. (The other one happened when Eaton threw a guy out at 2nd base.) As I understand it, 4 outs in 10 PA's isn't good.
Just sayin'....
If a team drafts four pitchers, you can usually expect one to exceed expectations, one to more or less meet expectations, one to not work out and one to get hurt. I think we’ve seen that with Singer, Bubic, Kowar and Bowlan.
I really think Bubic is talented enough to at least stick as a swingman on a good team. He’s struggled this year after pitching really, really well in 2020 and 2021.
Personally, I think if one out of four becomes a solid #2 to #4 starter and another one becomes a decent reliever, you've done pretty well. But reasonable folks can disagree on that...
Maybe I'm just haunted by the ghosts of all the Roy Branches and Colt Griffins and Kyle Zimmers and Jim Pittsleys and SO MANY more.
Just a quick follow-up thought....
It would be interesting to go back through the history of all the pitchers the Royals have drafted, and to see how many of them "met expectations" (however defined.) My very strong gut feel is that it would be less than 10%.
What I meant to say is that it would be interesting to read the results of SOMEBODY ELSE'S painstaking and extremely time-consuming research on that! 😱
They must have an extra underemployed nerd or two sitting around at Baseball Savant, right...???? Let's give those folks something to keep them busy for the next several years.
I have little doubt that the Royals' pitching development success has been below the median rate over, say, the last 20 years. But anecdotally, I think it's also important to factor in how few teams have rotations full of homegrown pitchers.
The Royals and Cubs set the model for success: Draft and develop your own hitters, and trade the excess for established starting pitchers. I think we'll see the same thing happen this time around.
Yeah, it definitely hasn't been real long since they last made those kinds of trades. (Vargas, Shields, Volquez.) And it's impossible to say that didn't work out.
I still maintain that the smaller a team's revenue, the more important it is to have at least some of those homegrown guys. Which means you have to be able to develop and coach them.
I go back to Saberhagen & Gubicza (homegrown) combined with guys like Danny Jackson, Gura, Leibrandt (trade acquisitions.) You gotta have some of both, I suppose. But I'll point out that the lead dog of that crew was Saberhagen, one of the homegrown guys.
One other thought: having spent all of these high draft picks on pitchers, the Royals simply can't afford to waste all those picks by failing to coach and develop those guys properly. They just can't.
Hmmm... now comes word: Keller to the bullpen. Maybe the quest for that "bulk guy" has semi-officially begun...???