What to Expect When You’re Expecting a Major League Debut

Let's look at five prospects who could debut in 2021.

The 2021 Royals appear to be pretty well set even at this early stage of spring training, but that doesn’t mean their young talent won’t find their way to the big leagues. As I’ve mentioned so many times before, depth is going to be more important than ever this year, especially on the pitching staff. And that’s where the Royals might have an advantage over some other teams if their young pitching can step up and help them to not miss a beat when the time comes for a break for some of their other guys. 

Below, I’ve got five players who have a good shot to make their big league debut at some point during the 2021 season. I really have four who people care about, but four isn’t as fun as five, so I added a player on the 40-man who has a good shot to make his debut just because he’s already on the roster. Don’t worry, I’ll bury him at the bottom.

I’m going to point to sort of a best case comparable rookie scenario for each of these five guys, using a season from the last few seasons with guys who are at least somewhat close to the skill set of the players below.

The Pitchers

Daniel Lynch

The tall lefty is earning rave reviews in spring training already, and I think if the season was longer in 2020, he’d have already gotten to the big leagues. The Royals have said they won’t hesitate to break guys in this season in the bullpen, but I think Lynch is a starter when he comes up in spite of the fact that he could be truly nasty as a reliever. So I guess if the Royals are contending and their rotation is part of why, he might be a reliever this year, but I still don’t see it lasting too long.

In Lynch, the Royals have a guy throwing 95-97 and touching 99 at the alternate site last season. His slider sits mid-80s and is outstanding. That two-pitch mix is what would make him dominant in the bullpen. But his changeup has gotten better and his curve is enough to get strikes on, though it does hang on him sometimes. He’s one of a handful of pitchers who can really benefit from a strong spring. 

Rookie Year Comp

It’s not often you see a lefty comped to a righty, but I’m here to break barriers. Luis Severino isn’t the exact pitcher that Lynch could be, but he competes with a strong fastball, slider and changeup, so it’s at least somewhat close. Plus, while his slider is a bit harder, I feel like his rookie level pitches were pretty comparable to what we see from Lynch right now. In Severino’s rookie season, he threw 62.1 innings with a 2.89 ERA. I don’t know that Lynch will be able to duplicate Severino’s success with leaving guys on base (87 percent strand rate), but I could see him giving a chunk of really solid innings like that. 

Realistic Expectations

I’d be surprised if Lynch isn’t up and isn’t up at some point in the first half. He has good enough command and good enough stuff that I think he’ll be at least as successful as Brady Singer and Kris Bubic were in 2020. I don’t think there’s a huge chance of him being actually bad unless the stage is too big for him, but I could see a range of Rookie of the Year talk to being sort of whatever, though I’d give it better odds that he’s closer to the former.

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Jackson Kowar

With Brady Singer and Kris Bubic making their debuts last season and Lynch being listed above, all that’s left from the big four of the 2018 draft is Kowar. (For the record, I still really like Jonathan Bowlan, but I think he’s a bit behind the rest.) Like Lynch, Kowar throws it hard, topping out in the upper-90s but probably sitting more mid-90s. His best pitch, though, is a nasty changeup. It’s arguably the best changeup in the organization. Unlike Lynch, I could see the Royals utilizing Kowar out of the bullpen as a development tool. I don’t have a good reason for why I think one and not the other. It’s just a gut feeling. 

The big pitch for Kowar that he’s been working to develop is his curve, and it’s pretty hot and cold based on the last time I saw it. But the reviews from the alternate site from those who actually had a chance to see him occasionally are that it got better. I’d like Kowar’s chances more if he was working on a curve as his fourth pitch, but his changeup is so nasty that the curve as a third pitch might just be enough. Kowar keeps the ball on the ground pretty well and saw the strikeouts kick up when he got to AA. If he can continue on that path, there’s a role for him in the big leagues somewhere. 

Rookie Year Comp

This one actually is pretty easy to think about who might be the most like him and it’s Chris Paddack. Kowar throws harder, but Paddack has an outstanding changeup as well and lived mostly off those two pitches during his rookie season in 2019 when he threw 140.2 innings with a 3.33 ERA and an almost 5:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Things didn’t go as well for Paddack in his second year, which might speak to how important it is for Kowar to develop that third pitch, but if he can have a rookie season like Paddack did, the Royals would be just fine with that.

Realistic Expectations

At some point, the Royals are likely going to have to make a trade that hurts to find some bats to pair with all the arms. I’ve thought for awhile that Kowar could be the guy they move, and if he is, I would assume they’ll leave him in the minors. Otherwise, I think he’ll be in the big leagues sometime in the first half with Lynch and I think there’s a real chance he struggles. The fastball is hard, but can sometimes be too true and while his changeup is outstanding, he might struggle to get to it in the big leagues. If it clicks, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the best of the bunch, but I could also see him looking more like Paddack’s 2020 (4.73 ERA, 59 IP, 9.2 H/9) than his rookie year above. 

Asa Lacy

Ask a handful of talent evaluators which Royals pitching prospect is the best of the bunch and you might get a different answer from all of them. Lacy is one of those answers after going fourth overall in a bit of a surprise to the team in the 2020 draft. He didn’t pitch competitively last season, but the reviews were good once he joined the alternate site later in the season. I personally haven’t heard a bad thing about him from people who have seen his work in the limited time since he’s been drafted.

His fastball sits 93-96 or so and, like the others, can touch 98 or 99 at times. The difference between Lacy and Lynch and Kowar is that he has four pretty well defined pitches. His slider is nasty, and a bit harder than Lynch’s. His changeup isn’t as good as Kowar’s, but is a really nice pitch and his curve was better than expected at the alternate site as well. The biggest issue with Lacy is that his command isn’t great, so that’s what could hold him back, if anything. I don’t expect to see him too quickly in 2021, but it’s possible for sure given how highly the organization speaks of him. 

Rookie Year Comp

This one might seem sort of odd, but Jesus Lúzardo has a some similarities to Lacy. Lúzardo uses his curve the way I anticipate Lacy will use his slider and his slider is kind of how I could see Lacy using his curve when he gets to the big leagues. He throws hard with a good changeup that gets tons of swings and misses. And in 2020, he threw 59 innings with a solid strikeout rate and a good enough walk rate. I honestly think Lacy could be better, but I think Lacy’s rookie year could look a lot like Lúzardo’s will when push comes to shove.

Realistic Expectations

I would put the odds of Lacy making the big leagues early this season at next to zero, but if he hits the ground running in the minors, he should get some time later, especially if the Royals are in contention. He seems like the type who if he earns that call-up will have very little issues acclimating to big league life, and with his pitch mix, I’d expect him to be good from the word go and should only get better. That might seem hopeful, but I think Lacy has a chance to be very special as long as the command is there.

The Hitters

Kyle Isbel

I said this at the time of the deal for Andrew Benintendi, but I think Isbel is one of the reasons the Royals so willing to move Khalil Lee. Isbel has not only not played above high-A ball, but he hasn’t played well above low-A, showing poorly in his 52 games in Wilmington in 2019. Of course, there were extenuating circumstances with that due to some freak injuries and he played exceptionally well in a very limited sample in the Arizona Fall League that season. I think 2020 was primed to be a year for Isbel to burst on the scene, and the reports were just outstanding on him from the alternate site. What little video we had on him was impressive.

It doesn’t get flashy with Isbel. He’s solid across the board, kind of similar to a guy like David DeJesus. And while that might not excite you, he has a chance to be a guy DeJesus never got to be with the Royals - a glue guy who doesn’t have to be the team’s best player. He puts together a good at bat, has doubles power that will probably lead to 15-20 homers in a full season and plays really solid outfield defense. He’s best in a corner, but at least for the next couple seasons, he can probably handle center okay enough to be fine. 

Rookie Year Comp

You don’t have to go very far to find it. It’s Benintendi. They’re both smaller players who are athletic enough to play a very good defensive outfield. Benintendi has (had?) a better pedigree to become more of a star than is likely for Isbel, but their game isn’t all that different from each other. In Benintendi’s full rookie year when he finished second in the Rookie of the Year vote, he hit .271/.352/.424. I think that’d be a really nice start to Isbel’s career if he could match that. 

Realistic Expectations

I really like that Isbel makes quality contact, but it’s also true that in his last competitive action, he struggled mightily. Something like Nick Senzel’s 2019 (.256/.315/.427) would definitely be solid if he can’t reach Benintendi’s heights, but I could see more struggles from him as he gets attacked with the best pitching he’s ever seen. I think that he’ll be up at some point maybe after the break. Isbel strikes me as the type who could be fine to start, but might take a go-round of seeing some big league pitching for a bit before he really starts to do what the team hopes he can.

Lucius Fox

I really wanted someone more interesting as the fifth player here, but Fox was once a top prospect and as a versatile player already on the 40-man, he has a pretty good shot to get the plate appearances that went to Erick Mejia the last couple years. I bet you were hoping for Bobby Witt, Jr. here, weren’t you? Can you tell I’m stalling because I just don’t care that much about Fox? Whatever, I’ll still tell you what the Royals might be getting with him when he gets his first action.

He is super fast, but he isn’t very strong and he doesn’t have great pitch recognition or pitch selection skills but has worked some walks in the minors. But when he gets a chance to show off his athleticism, he’s fun to watch. We’ve seen a lot of that in Kansas City over the years. The good news is that he’s pretty good defensively up the middle and the word is that things really clicked for him at the alternate site, but I’ll believe that when I see it. 

Rookie Year Comp

Luis Rengifo was competent for the Angels in a utility role in 2019. He hit .238/.321/.364 with a solid walk rate and a few too many strikeouts. He wasn’t needed at shortstop much for them, but he handled both middle infield positions well. For cheap, that’s good value. 

Realistic Expectations

I just don’t buy the talk of him clicking. I guess I’ve been sold that quite a bit for the last few years, and it makes me not want to believe it without seeing it. The good news is that he isn’t likely to be needed for more than a utility role, but hey, guys who were considered top prospects do break out, so it’s possible this could be a steal. It might take a little longer to get him up if the Royals are willing to move Merrifield to second in case of a middle infield injury, but if anyone goes down or if the Royals decide that Nicky Lopez needs more minor league time, Fox could be the guy at really any time during the season. 

I know you were looking for Bobby Witt, Jr. on this list, but I just don’t think he’ll be up this season. Still, if you want the guy most comped to him, you can look at Trevor Story’s .272/.341/.567 rookie year. So that’d be fun. But I think it might have to wait until 2022, unfortunately.

This isn’t an exhaustive list of players who could debut in 2021, but they seem to be the most likely to be seen in this upcoming season.