Which Pitchers the Royals Should Target in Free Agency

Other than the big contracts they're going to obviously give Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon, who should they go after?

You may have heard that the Royals struggled to pitch well in 2022. I apologize if that’s a shock. It’s on me. I should have written about it more. But here we are and after the Royals were one of the worst pitching staffs in the league, they are left needing to add. And add some more. I said a few weeks ago that the Royals offseason to-do list is basically add pitching. Then once they do that, they need to add more. And after that, add more pitching. Then they can focus on adding some more pitching. And then maybe a right-handed bat. So today, let’s dig in to some of that pitching that’s available on the free agent market.

I know JJ Picollo tried to ruin everyone’s Cheerios a couple of weeks ago when he mentioned not really spending in free agency. Maybe I’m wrong, but I took that to mean they aren’t going to be spending big. I remember him talking a few weeks before that about how they’d need to add pitching this offseason (that sounds familiar) and Anne Rogers mentioned that yesterday as well. So I’m going to go under the assumption that they won’t be spending $100 million+ on a pitcher. I maintain that if they were going to spend big and believe they can compete in 2024, now is a good time to spend because of their payroll obligations, but it sounds like that won’t be happening, so I won’t spend time on it.

When I look at free agent pitchers, there are two things I care about right now. It’s about limiting walks and being able to get some swings and misses. After I looked at their issues with getting whiffs last week, that’s certainly a spot they need to improve. That part isn’t the be all, end all. I didn’t mention this in that newsletter, though I probably should have, but Brady Singer doesn’t get a ton of whiffs but his CSW% (called strikes and whiffs) was right up there with the best of the best, so if there’s someone out there who can do that as well, I’m fine with it. The most important thing to me is not walking hitters. And there are a few who fit that mold.

They’re listed alphabetically, so no favoritism here necessarily.

Tyler Anderson

4.8% BB, 24.2% Whiff, 28.1% CSW%

Anderson will be 33 in 2023 and just had the best year of his career under the tutelage of the Dodgers. He had pitched pretty well considering he was in Colorado to start his career before he was brought in by the Pirates in 2021 and then traded to the Mariners. Sort of a league average-type guy, he emerged with the Dodgers as his walk rate dropped dramatically (though that trend started in 2021). He gets it done with a changeup which is his best whiff pitch, but opponents weren’t especially good on his fastball and really struggled with a cutter that he threw 22 percent of the time.

While his 2.57 ERA was a bit of a mirage, his FIP showed he was very good and the quality of contact against him was elite. Can that carry over? I don’t know, but even if he’s somewhere between his 2020/2021 self and his 2022 self, that would be a huge improvement for the Royals. Personally, I’d probably let another team try to recreate the Dodgers magic with him, but if they hired, say, Connor McGuiness as their pitching coach, I’d roll the dice here for sure.

Chris Bassitt

6.6% BB, 23.6% Whiff, 29.2% CSW%

Bassitt is my favorite pitcher on this list. I thought the Royals should have traded for him last year and even suggested moving Jackson Kowar for him. I think a lot of people thought that was too much for a rental, but I don’t think anyone would argue about it now. Bassitt, like Anderson, gets some weak contact even though he doesn’t get a lot of chases. But what he does is mixs his pitches well. He threw five different pitches at least 13.1 percent of the time in 2022 on his way to a very good season for the Mets. His sinker got more grounders than ever and his cutter, slider, curve and four-seamer actually got a decent number of whiffs.

He’ll be 34 in 2023, which means he likely doesn’t require a huge commitment in terms of years, but he’s almost certainly the pitcher who will get the highest multi-year AAV on this entire list. A downside for Bassitt is that he isn’t a workhorse. He threw a career-high 181.2 innings for the Mets this year. It was the first time he’d made 30 starts in his career. And do you want to commit to three years for a 34-year old? I would say yes because he’s thrown fewer than 1300 innings between the big leagues and the minors, including postseason. But I can see why you’d be hesitant. I can also see how the bidding for him might get a little crazy, but he’d be a heck of a fit.

Mike Clevinger

7.2% BB, 24.3% Whiff, 26.3% CSW%

I felt a lot better about Clevinger earlier in the season before the wheels fell off. He had a 5.67 ERA with 32 strikeouts and 19 walks in his final 11 starts, spanning 54 innings. I think the question here is if he just ran out of gas in his return from injury that cost him the entire 2021 season. If it did, then you probably feel pretty good about getting him in a buy-low situation. If he just lost it, then you probably end up regretting the contract almost immediately. But it’s just all a question of what you believe is true with him. His whiff rate in 2020 was 30.4 percent and it was even higher in 2019. If you think he can even get, say, half of that back, he could be a steal.

My guess is he wants to sign a one-year deal to prove himself. We really didn’t see a lot of that in 2022, so maybe he ends up looking at a two-year deal like we saw with Alex Cobb, but Cobb had the opposite sort of season in 2021, finishing strong. I don’t think Clevinger has the track record to command the $21 million deal Noah Syndergaard got from the Angels, but maybe he signs the $10 million deal James Paxton got from the Red Sox. I don’t know, but I’d be intrigued on a short deal for a pitcher who posted a 2.96 ERA with peripherals to support that from 2017 to 2020. It’d be worth a risk, especially knowing he throws strikes and can get whiffs when he’s right.

Zach Eflin

4.8% BB, 22.1% Whiff, 27.5% CSW%

If you had me pick one player who was closest to Gil Meche in terms of signing for someone for what the Royals think he could be, it’d be Eflin. Where this could get a little complicated is Eflin plays a big role in the World Series for the Phillies. You don’t even have to look past the next player on this list to see a guy who Dave Dombrowski decided to keep in the fold after playing World Series pitching hero. Eflin was traded twice before reaching the big leagues, but every pitch he’s thrown has been with the Phillies and he has really taken to the bullpen since he returned from the IL from a knee injury. But even so, as a starter, he limited walks quite well and was effective in 13 starts.

He has a four-pitch mix of a sinker, curve, four-seamer and cutter. He mixes in a changeup and almost completely scrapped his slider this season, but threw it a few times. The curve has been his money whiff pitch and he upped the usage on that this season. Personally, I’d probably like to see him throw the four-seamer more as it was very effective this season, but he’s an interesting candidate on either a one-year deal where he could take advantage of a big park for a guy who has had some home run issues in the past. Or maybe on a two-year or even a three-year deal to get some of his peak seasons. I don’t think you’re getting an ace with Eflin, but he does seem to be someone who could be a solid pitcher to hold down the fort in the middle of a rotation.

Nathan Eovaldi

4.3% BB, 25.2% Whiff, 28.4% CSW%

And here’s the guy Dombrowski paid after playing postseason pitching hero! He’s finishing up the last year of the four-year deal. With Eovaldi, you are running a risk of being without him for some time as he hasn’t been the healthiest pitcher in the world, but he has made 61 starts since the start of 2020 and made 32 starts to lead the league in 2021. What you get is one of the harder throwers in the game with a splitter that is absolute filth. His curve is also a pitch that opponents have nightmares about. Where I’d have some concern is how ineffective his slider became in 2022. I feel like his issues with the fastball were really more about location and that can be fixed, but the slider went from a pretty strong swing and miss weapon to a pitch to avoid throwing. I don’t like that one bit.

Still, a pitcher who has shown he can pitch in the bullpen might be a nice fit. He’s also had some home run issues in the past, which could be mitigated a good amount by pitching in Kauffman Stadium. I just love that, outside of a rough 2019 season, he’s had no problems throwing strikes and actually does get some swings and misses. And like others on this list, he’s a little older, so the commitment isn’t going to be too great for him. If I had a choice, I’d say give him one year, but he might command two and sign for something like the Cobb deal last year. I’d be fine with that. I don’t think I’d go three on him, but he could be a nice fit to help a young rotation out.

Zack Greinke

4.6% BB, 17.3% Whiff 25.0% CSW%

I think we can all agree that Greinke may not be on this list if not for his obvious long-time ties to the organization. If he had put up these numbers for, say, the Pirates, we’d still want him back because of the start of his career. But if he’d started his career in Pittsburgh, went back for one year last year and did this, we’d probably be passing in spite of the impressive walk rate and solid CSW%. But the reality is that he did pitch for the Royals and he ended the year with a solid season, though I sort of wonder if he should only pitch at home, if they could make that happen. Still, he’d be someone to bring back, I think. They can’t afford to turn down a guy with a 3.68 ERA if he wants to pitch for the Royals.

Andrew Heaney

6.1% BB, 35.8% Whiff, 32.5% CSW%

Of all the names on this list, I am probably most skeptical of him. But statistically, he’s the best of all worlds, at least when it comes to limiting walks and getting whiffs. Why am I skeptical? That’s a good question. I guess I’d say it’s about the track record. Before signing with the Dodgers, he was pretty much somewhere from way below average to league average. He posted a 5.83 ERA in 2021 between the Angels and Yankes, which was the worst of his career in a year he made more than five starts. But the Dodgers liked the fastball profile and thought he’d make good rotation depth. And he was quite good when he was on the mound, though he did miss time with shoulder issues, which is a bit of a red flag. Maybe that’s another reason I’m skeptical.

But when he did pitch, he was fantastic. He’s always done a nice job of getting strikeouts and getting swings and misses, but he used a slider more than just for show for the first time since 2016 and it was electric. He had a 44.3 percent hiff rate on it and held opponents to a .170 average and .340 SLG on it. His fastball was much better too, with a 30.5 percent whiff rate and .228 average allowed. I guess I question the durability and wonder if his success in the relatively light workload of 2022 will require more of a commitment than I think he might make good on.

Sean Manaea

7.5% BB, 25.5% Whiff, 27.4% CSW%

I don’t think the Royals were ever wrong to deal Manaea, and the results showed that, but I don’t think they’d be too upset to get one of their own back home. The problem, or maybe it’s a feature and not a bug, is that he had a rough year in 2022. His 7.5 percent walk rate was the second-highest of his career (still league average) and his 4.96 ERA was easily the highest he’d ever put up in a season. His FIP of 4.53 was also the highest of his career by quite a bit, so you wonder a little if the magic might be going away. But his xERA of 4.05 was worse than the previous few seasons, but better than his first three. He did get hit hard, but probably was a bit unlucky.

The difference between his 2022 season and his 2021 was pretty much his changeup. It was an outstanding pitch for him with a .238 average and .327 SLG allowed in 2021, but that jumped to .301 and .528 this past season. That pitch has never been an issue for him, so I wonder what may have contributed to it. I have a theory that he was starting to get a bit into the danger zone with spin rate. We always look at spin as something that is better the higher it goes, but extremely low spin can also produce the same impact as extremely high spin. If you look bac at the spin rate on his changeup in 2020, it was 1102 rpm. In 2021, it jump to 1377 and then it was 1439 in 2022. Could that have made a difference? I’d have to dig in a lot more to know, but it would make sense to me. He still got lots of whiffs on it, so maybe it’s just random variance. Either way, if he would be amenable to a two- or three-year deal, I think the Royals would do well to bring him home.

Jose Quintana

6.9% BB, 23.8% Whiff, 25.3% CSW%

I fear that Quintana may have priced himself out of the range he’s supposed to be in at this point in his career with his excellent 2022 season. While he isn’t striking out hitters like he once did for the White Sox, it appears that his control is back to where it was when he was on the South Side. He was solid for Pittsburgh and then excellent down the stretch for St. Louis.

In his defense, he did pitch for the Angels, who are a little Royals-ish when it comes to getting bad performances from their one-year guys they bring in. I’m a bit skeptical of him continuing what he did, but he had a 2.99 FIP and a 3.86 xERA in 165.2 innings last season. Outside of 2020 and 2021, he’s been a pretty reliable source of innings, though it’s worth noting that after four straight seasons of 200+ with the White Sox, he’s gone from 188.2 to 174.1 to 171 to 10 to 63 and then back up to 165.2, so it’s hard to say if he should actually be counted on. Still, I’d take a one-year shot on him. He’s a very tradeable arm as well.

Ross Stripling

3.7% BB, 23.5% Whiff, 27.5% CSW%

I’ve long wondered how Stripling stays effective in the big leagues, but he does. One thing he did exceptionally well in 2022 was mix his pitches a little better, at least better than he did in 2021. He threw his average fastball a lot less and his changeup a lot more and it worked. He’s a weird pitcher who doesn’t really have a swing and miss slider, but it got the job done in 2022. Could that be expected going forward? I’d say probably not, but it can be a good third pitch for him behind that fastball and changeup. I like his history of pitching out of the bullpen too, if that’s what’s needed from him. I fear that after a 3.01 ERA and 3.11 FIP that he’ll be looking for something like the three years and $36 million that Anthony DeSclafani or Yusei Kikuchi got, but if they could get him for two years, I’d be all over that.

Noah Syndergaard

5.5% BB, 20.1% Whiff, 26.3% CSW%

The elite velocity is gone, but the guy simply throws strikes. His first pitch strike percentage last year was 65.3 percent. He didn’t get the ground balls that he used to, which is a bit of a concern without getting strikeouts, but he was still an effective pitcher and maybe could look even better an extra year removed from Tommy John. I think he was hoping to be in the mix for a mega contract after proving he was back, but he might be moving on to the portion of his career where he signs short deals every year or every other year. He may never be Thor again, but a guy who walked as few as he did with the maybe hopefully chance to get back to something close to that is at least interesting on a short deal.

Jameson Taillon

4.4% BB, 23% Whiff 26.3% CSW%

If Bassitt is my favorite on this list, Taillon is number two. And it might be at least partially because I predicted the Royals would trade for him before 2021 in an article I wrote like six years ago. But even so, he gave the Yankees 177.1 quality innings witha. solid ERA, solid FIP, solid xERA and everything. I would like to see him scrap the cutter he threw a decent number of in 2022, but all of his pitches were pretty effective and he got swings and misses on all but the sinker, which was used well for grounders.

He still throws around 94 MPH, which isn’t what he once was, but it’s still solid. He’ll be 31 and coming off a non-elite year, so it might take three years for him, but even if it does, I’d probably jump on that and hope that if year three is rough, they’ve figured out how to develop someone else.

Michael Wacha

6.0% BB, 20.7% Whiff, 24.7% CSW%

I know he was very good in 2022. I just don’t buy it. And I worry that how good he was, like some others, makes the pricetag too high for someone who I’m iffy on being able to repeat. The Mets signed him thinking he could bounce back in 2020 and he was horrible. The Rays signed him in 2021 hoping for the same thing and he was merely very bad. Then the Red Sox hit big with a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts. But it was only 23 starts and he outperformed the peripherals, though he did a nice job of limiting hard contact at least. I don’t know. I just don’t buy it and I hope the Royals don’t either, unless it’s for another one-year deal at relatively low money like he’s signed the last three seasons.

These are all pitchers with a walk rate of 7.5 percent or below, which was the league average for starters. Maybe it’s an overcorrection, but I just don’t think the Royals could justify bringing in anyone with a below-average walk rate. Not surprisingly, there aren’t many free agents who are above average in CSW% and below average in walk rate. But I’d consider:

Wade Miley

8.8% BB, 25.2% Whiff, 29.2% CSW%

If I told you Miley has a 3.50 ERA over the last five seasons, you wouldn’t believe me. But he does. The Brewers pitching factory turned his career around with a great year in 2018 that was probably a little lucky. Then the Astros pitching factory kept it going. Then the Reds, who might be developing a pitching factory, got a heck of a year from him in 2021 and he was very good in a minuscule sample for the Cubs in 2022. Are you going to get innings? It’s hard to say. He hasn’t thrown more than 167.1 since 2015. But he’s been good pretty much every season he’s pitched other than 2020 in 14.1 innings. Yes, there are injury questions. But maybe he can be had for pretty cheap? I don’t know. It’s interesting at least.

Martin Perez

8.4% BB, 21% Whiff, 27.2% CSW

Perez isn’t likely to get to the market, at least not seriously. The Rangers love him. He loves the Rangers. Seems like he won’t leave, but if he does, he’s coming off a very nice season, the best of his career. He’s a bit too much like some other Royals starters for my liking, but similar to Greinke, if someone who posted a 2.89 ERA in 196.1 innings wanted to sign with the Royals, they would probably have a hard time turning that down. He’s more someone to keep an eye on, but he somehow won’t even turn 32 until April, so he’s younger than you think.

In looking at the team’s needs, you can safely say they have one starter under team control next season who you can count on - Singer. You want to give Daniel Lynch every opportunity to reach his potential, especially with a new pitching coach. But other than that, who else do you absolutely have to have in the rotation? I personally think Kris Bubic can be a lot better than most believe (I’m working on something about him, FYI). Jonathan Heasley could be someone who thrives under the right instruction, but he hasn’t shown that much. Angel Zerpa showed some good stuff in a very limited debut, but I don’t think he’s someone you leave a spot for. Max Castillo had a couple of moments, but also imploded the longer he was with the team.

So how many do they need? I’d say at least two pitchers and that might be with re-signing Zack Greinke or in addition to him. Bassitt and Taillon are my obvious favorites, but I personally love the idea of Ross Stripling because he’s shown he can handle shifting between the rotation and the bullpen and if it happens that new instruction allows young pitchers to step up and become quality big league starters, he can be put into a middle relief role where he’s also succeeded. The beauty of this is that I don’t know if any of the above pitchers require more than three seasons, so even if the young starters do begin to develop, any veteran brought in could pretty easily be moved in one way or another.

All I know is that even if they make the perfect moves for a manager and pitching coach (and maybe pitching director over the whole organization?), it’d be a pretty tough sell to go into 2023 with the pitching staff looking basically the same. I believe this front office needs some results and I believe the fans need to see some results. Unfortunately, because of past failures, that means they’ll have to go into the pitching market to improve their team with a couple of veterans.