Whiff or Whiffout You

Royals starters stole the show over the weekend against the Tigers, but really they’ve been pretty good all season.

When the Royals lost the first two games of the series against the Rays to start the week last week, it sort of felt like they were at a crossroads. Their hot start could easily have been wiped out with another loss or two. That’s the scary thing about a good start. A few games over .500 can become a couple games under .500 in no time. But the Royals won a game on Wednesday that may have been even bigger than it seemed as they headed to a weekend set with the Tigers (that keeps going today, more on that in a bit). And it was important that they took at least three of four from Detroit because if you want to thump your chest and proclaim that you’re a good team, you have to beat the bad teams.

And with one game left in the four-game set, they’ve already gotten their three wins. That doesn’t mean that losing the fourth game is something they should be okay with or anything, but they’ve already taken care of their business. They’ve done it with their pitching staff so far, allowing just three runs in the first three games of the series. The starting pitching has been the star of the show, but the bullpen has also gone 9.1 innings with two hits allowed, 13 strikeouts and two walks, so maybe they were the stars. Or maybe it’s all the pitchers. Let’s just start with the starters. Here’s their cumulative line through three games:

17.2 IP
11 H
25 K
2 BB
1.53 ERA

Combining it all and the total pitching line for the weekend was:

27 IP
13 H
38 K
4 BB
1.00 ERA

You probably guessed from the title that I want to talk about those strikeouts because a 39.6 percent strikeout rate is bonkers. And I’ll say it before anybody else can. The Tigers can’t hit. They have the worst strikeout rate as an offense in baseball at 29.1 percent, but it’s worth mentioning that 29.1 is lower than 39.6, so the Royals are overachieving if you want to look at it that way. The Royals have actually done a good job this season of getting swings and misses from their pitchers. Of the 16 pitchers on the staff, only four of them have actually been below average at getting swings and misses - Brad Keller, Jesse Hahn, Ervin Santana and the surprise of Josh Staumont. 

This weekend was no different. It started with a nice outing from Mike Minor. He went 5.2 innings, gave up two runs on four hits with nine strikeouts and two walks. He got swings and misses on 33 percent of swings with his changeup getting three on five pitches. It was an interesting start because his velocity was actually down, which is something to be concerned about. But his spin rates were fairly consistent with his season numbers. I think he was a little lucky to get away with the line he did after getting hit hard, but look at his swinging strikes. He got by with a few fastballs that may have been a bit of a mistake but living on the edge. This was a really nice performance and basically a class in how to mix your pitches around the edges.

On Saturday, Brady Singer looked about as good as he ever has. You might argue his no-hit bid in Cleveland was better and I won’t argue, but he really dominated the Tigers on Saturday afternoon in a pitcher’s duel with Matthew Boyd. Singer has been steadily showing better and better each start after his first difficult outing of the year against the Rangers. His last outing against the Blue Jays was fantastic, but he only had six swings and misses before going seven innings with just one run allowed on three hits with a season-high eight strikeouts and no walks in Detroit. Let’s take a look at his swinging strikes.

This is a different story from Minor’s chart. He “only” had 14 swinging strikes on this image, though Baseball Savant says he had 15. I’m not sure where the other one was, but you can see a very obvious plan against a lefty heavy lineup to keep his sinker on the outer half or farther and his slider on the inner half. And it worked. He had a couple pitches in the middle, but he did what I always love to see and changed eye level by going upstairs with the sinker and downstairs with the slider. It was masterful. His velocity was also a touch down and he didn’t use his changeup at all, but he didn’t need to, so it’s hard to argue.

And then on Monday, the guy with one of the lowest ERAs in baseball took the mound, though he didn’t have enough innings to qualify. Until he went five shutout innings with eight strikeouts and no walks allowed. Some of his old Danny Duffy tendencies popped up with some deeper and long counts that kept him from going more than five innings, but a fresh enough bullpen meant that Mike Matheny was comfortable getting him out before there were issues. He finished the game with a 0.39 ERA, which means he qualifies for the ERA title for another three games before he has to throw some innings in his next start to get there, but he’s now third in baseball, if you were wondering. Let’s take a look at Duffy’s whiffs.

Okay, first of all. That’s a lot. That’s 18 swings and misses on 44 swings for a 41 percent whiff rate in this game. He was filthy all game with his fastball working up (I really, really love that) and actually using his changeup in a way I love too. It’s a little bit dangerous to keep a pitch like that at the top of the zone, but he didn’t all game. Look at his changeup usage as a whole:

I love this. He faced all righties and only one changeup was in a spot where a hitter could do damage. Everything else was on the outer third (maybe even outer fourth if that’s a thing) or farther out. He kept the ball in a spot that would be incredibly tough to have any damage inflicted. He’s pitching as well as he ever has at this point, and I’m including his excellent run in 2016 after coming back to the rotation from the bullpen.

The starters as a whole have actually been pretty good this season. They have a 4.05 ERA in 20 starts with a SIERA of 4.04 and more than a strikeout per inning and a walk roughly every third inning. They’ve allowed less than a hit per inning, which you’ll take all season long. 

BUT!

I mentioned this on Twitter, and this isn’t totally fair, but if you take out Keller from the equation, take a look at what their stats look like as a group:

83.2 IP
68 H
89 K
25 BB
2.90 ERA

Others have had bad starts, sure. Jakob Junis gave up five in five innings on Wednesday. Singer’s first start was rough. Minor’s first start wasn’t great. But none of those three were expected to be the ace of the staff. None of those three had a 3.50 ERA over the last three years in 360.1 innings. None of those three have been as consistent as Keller. So I guess the only reason I bring this up is that something has to give with Keller. Either he figures it out and gets back to the solid starter he has been since the first start he made or he doesn’t and the Royals have to figure something out. The point here is that the rotation has both been pretty good and while a guy like Duffy isn’t likely to maintain a 0.39 ERA, most of what they’re doing seems pretty sustainable, which is a very good thing.

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Crown Jewels

Maybe Whit Should Sit

The most consistent guy on the team is Whit Merrifield, but playing every single day might be something that’s starting to get to him. I know it’s only 20 games into the season after a short season, but he’s 32 years old and the wear and tear of playing every day for multiple seasons is not something that is easy, no matter how few games have been played since 2019. The reality is that players need to sit in order to stay as fresh as possible, and I think there’s an argument to be made that consecutive games streaks can be detrimental to the team. Last season, Merrifield endured a slump that many called a fluke. From August 23rd through September 7th, he hit .154/.191/.277 in 68 plate appearances. 

This year, he started off so strong, hitting three home runs in his first four games and hitting .389/.415/.694 through his first nine games. Since then, though, he’s hitting .200/.245/.244 with just two doubles. On the bright side, he’s struck out just once in that time, but after starting the season hitting the ball hard, he has an average exit velocity of just 84.8 MPH over these last 11 games. He had two hits yesterday, but one came off the bat at 71 MPH and had an xBA of .210 and the other came off the bat at 64.2 MPH. The xBA on that one was higher as it was placed well, but he is just not swinging the bat well. I’m not saying he needs today off exactly, but I think his consecutive games streak has a chance to be much more of a hindrance than a help.

Interesting Upcoming Schedule

I’ve talked a lot about the importance of this current set of games. They’ve got one left against the Tigers (it might be over by the time you read this, in which case, hello from the past) and then two against the Pirates. Those are games, no matter how well the Pirates are playing, that a contender should win the majority of. But then things get interesting as they head to Minnesota for three and then back home to face the Indians for four and the White Sox for three. The Twins need to get whole again before we can really see what they are, but the Royals have built a nice lead on them over the first few weeks of the season, but that’s still a talented team. They can’t look ahead, but that’s a big series.

Then when they come home for the Indians and White Sox, that’s a real opportunity for them to show what they really are. We saw them split four from the Indians and White Sox on the road to start the season, but if they can maybe split the four-game set with the Indians and take two of three from the White Sox, it’s safe to say they’ll be in good shape in the division in the early-going. I have to say that I didn’t expect to be thinking about the schedule after three and a half weeks of the season, so this is a nice position to be in for both the team and the fans.