Who Blinks First?

I had an enlightening conversation over the weekend about the state of the market and what that means for the Royals.

Prices are up. Anyone can see it. I always predict free agent landing spots and the amount they’ll sign for, and while I’m ultimately just guessing, my numbers are based on what other players have recently signed for along with rumors. I’m not always in lockstep, but I’m generally in line with other writers who predict these sort of things. A player like Juan Soto doesn’t move the needle for me on a guy getting more than expected. The great ones are in a different category and when multiple teams are involved, a generational talent will see an insane number in the end. It’s most of the rest that have been surprising.

The Yankees went at least two more years than most predicted anyone would on Max Fried, raising the overall value to more than $200 million on the deal. Many predicted Nathan Eovaldi would get two years at $20-$23 million. He got three years and $75 million. Luis Severino benefited greatly from the A’s need to overpay to both satisfy the MLBPA and to get free agents to want to play in a minor league park and he got $67 million over three years. Blake Snell got five years and $182 million (though he’ll actually get less than half during the deal with most coming before in a signing bonus and after in deferred money). It’s been a robust market. For pitching.

I say that because the market for bats hasn’t been all that odd. Tyler O’Neill getting $49.5 million over three years might be a touch more than expected, but it’s in the ballpark. And I don’t think Willy Adames should surprise anyone. I had him at five years and $140 million, which is $28 million per year. I was conservative on years and I think that was my mistake given his pedigree. He actually got a lower AAV than my prediction. Michael Conforto at a $17 million AAV would be surprising if it wasn’t for one year. You’re generally going to pay more for a year for a guy who could have easily gotten two or three. So now what we’re left with is a market where many of the top hitters who remain unsigned want to see if teams will go overboard for them like they have for pitchers.

It’s impacting the trade market too. I spoke over the weekend with a very connected person in the game. He indicated a lot of frustration with at least a handful of other teams who he thought were, at the very least, embellishing trade offers they already had in hand. One example of an ask on a trade he mentioned was for a top-50 prospect and more in exchange for a solid but not exceptional outfielder with just a couple of years of team control remaining. There’s aiming high and there’s being unrealistic and the general thought from this conversation is that this was unrealistic.