Winter Meetings Loud Even For Quiet Teams

The big names are the focus, but there is still a lot going on.

One of these days I’ll get to the Winter Meetings. I had actually kind of decided after the 2019 meetings that I would go the next year. And then they weren’t held in person for two straight years and now, well, I don’t think it would fly for me to go this year. Maybe next year? Either way, it’s one of the most fun few days in a baseball offseason. We talk a lot about how other sports have a defined free agency period that makes for a crazy week or two, but these meetings give the feeling of the free agent frenzy of other sports but in the form of rumors.

And this year, we’ve seen two mega-deals as well. Justin Verlander left Houston for the New York Mets after the Mets lost Jacob deGrom to the Rangers. He signed for the most money on a per year basis in history (okay, tied with his former and now current teammate, Max Scherzer). And we saw Trea Turner sign a deal for 11 years and $300 million with the Phillies. Aaron Judge is supposedly arriving in San Diego today, whatever that might mean. I’ll never forget watching MLB Network in December 2011 when they were broadcasting from the lobby of whatever hotel they were in. I remember seeing a bunch of people just sprint behind the desk and like 25 minutes later it was announced that Albert Pujols was signing with the Angels. So it’s a fun time.

But for the Royals, it’s been pretty quiet, which probably shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. They’ve all but said that they don’t believe 2023 is a year they’re expecting to compete. I don’t think many people would argue with that assertion, but I do think the lack of strength in the American League Central and the clock ticking on Bobby Witt Jr. should give them some reason to make some moves. If they believe in Brian Sweeney and the revamped big league staff to help guys like Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jonathan Heasley and others to take a step forward along with continued offensive development, they have to think there’s at least a chance they can get to 85 or 86 wins, so why not try to add four or five more?

JJ Picollo was on MLB Network Radio yesterday, and had something interesting to say about what the Royals are looking for.

MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM @MLBNetworkRadio

"We'd be looking at short term deals to help bridge that gap." @Royals GM J.J. Picollo details his wish list at the #WinterMeetings. #KansasCityRoyals | #Royals

The pulled quote in the tweet is kind of funny because, uh, yeah, I would say having starting pitchers is important. But the message was short deals. He also mentioned having someone who could flip between the bullpen and the rotation. I would have to imagine that’s in addition to Zack Greinke, who seems like he’ll be back but also hasn’t signed yet, so who knows? The problem when looking at the list of free agent pitchers is that I don’t see a lot on a short deal who would make too much sense for this team. The market has played out in a way that probably puts guys who I thought would be great fits out of range for them, but if you look at a few names who could be had on a one-year deal, it’s kind of uninspiring:

Chris Archer
Dylan Bundy
Johnny Cueto
Erick Fedde
Chi Chi Gonzalez
Drew Hutchison
Corey Kluber
Chad Kuhl
Michael Lorenzen
Jordan Lyles
Wade Miley
Mike Minor
Joe Ross
Aaron Sanchez
Anibal Sanchez
Drew Smyly
Noah Syndergaard
Vince Velasquez
Trevor Williams
Ryan Yarbrough

It’s not all bad. I’ve heard conflicting reports on what Kluber would want to do, but maybe he has a relationship with Sweeney that the Royals could capitalize on. I think that would be a great move on a one-year deal. Do you belive in Cueto’s 2022? If you do, he’d be kind of fun. Syndergaard could be interesting as could Lorenzen or even Miley. I guess Velasquez is a guy who could fit the hybrid role as well as Yarbrough. I don’t know. I’m just not terribly inspired by too much of this list. I suppose a one-year deal inherently can’t be too bad, but I’d much rather they spend a little more money to solidify the rotation and if you find that you have a surplus later, make a move.

For me, I’d be making a push for a lot of the same guys who I’ve talked about for a few months. Jameson Taillon, Taijuan Walker and even Ross Stripling make quite a bit of sense. Taillon and Walker are both starters, but Stripling is someone who can easily make room if someone surpasses him while he seems to be someone sort of stable in the rotation. I still think they’re willing to make a trade to bring in a starter, but it’s hard to see where that conversation starts. Is it with Nick Pratto and you’re trying to get a long-term arm? Or is it with Edward Olivares for someone who can help out for a year or two? I just don’t know that answer.

Picollo also mentioned looking toward the bullpen for some reinforcements. I’ve said before that I think the 2023 bullpen has a chance to be pretty good without any upgrades. Scott Barlow, Dylan Coleman, Josh Staumont, Richard Lovelady, Taylro Clarke, Amir Garrett and some combination of Max Castillo, Jose Cuas, Carlos Hernandez, Brad Keller, Wyatt Mills, Anthony Misiewicz and Angel Zerpa could form a solid unit. But there are a lot of questions in that group, so if the Royals are going to go find some help there, that’s where I think we likely see a move at these meetings. A few names who I think are interesting:

Steve Cishek
Michael Fulmer
Ken Giles
Pierce Johnson
Tommy Kahnle
Corey Knebel
Trevor May
Matt Moore
Matt Strahm
Matt Wisler
Nick Wittgren

There isn’t a difference-maker in there, but these are all pitchers who could lengthen a bullpen a good amount.

There was also an article on MLB.com by Anthony Castrovince about the Royals plans these meetings. Picollo points out that he expects the Royals to be making moves a little later in the offseason unless they can get a deal done pretty quickly on a handful. Picollo spoke about the coaching staff and in the article we learn there are some changes in the structure. Paul Gibson will be working at the big league level a lot more than he had. Mitch Stetter is now the director of pitching performance and Nate Adcock (yes, that Nate Adcock) will be the assistant director of pitching performance. I’d anticipate additional moves as well to fill out the development staff.

In that article, there’s a video of Matt Quatraro on MLB Network and he continues to impress me when he speaks. One of the big things he talked about was something from his opening press conference and it’s that you can’t win with 26 guys. You need way more depth than that to be able to pull from the minors. He also touched on how he wants to draw on Kevin Cash and Terry Francona from what he learned while working with them as a big league coach as well as the other coaches he worked with in his previous stops.

Then at the end, it was mentioned how the Rays success is based on pitching and the Royals lack of success is based on pitching. He did say the right things in talking about the talent on the pitching staff and believes the pitchers taking their lumps at the big league level will turn out well. But it’s pretty simple, according to him. He said the obvious thing is throwing more strikes and getting ahead. He also mentioned something that I really appreciated about how the more hitters swing, the worse it is for them. This article back in March shows that, well, he’s right. So that’s very encouraging from the manager.

One other Royals-related note is that the draft lottery is tonight and the Royals have a 10 percent shot at the number one overall pick, so that’s something to watch for even if they don’t sign a single player this week or pick anyone in the Rule 5 draft.

A few other thoughts:

• Whether or not you believe Fred McGriff should be a Hall of Famer, it was so cool watching that press conference with him last night. That smile could have lit up an entire stadium. And, for what it’s worth, he finished with 493 home runs and had about 70ish games taken away from him because of the strike in 1994 and 1995. If he had finished with 509 homers (he averaged about one every four games in those two years), I think he gets in a lot earlier. It was just cool to see him yesterday.

• The Turner contract is one that I keep going back and forth on. On the one hand, I think he’s the best of the shortstop free agents right now. But on the other hand, his loudest tool is his elite speed and that tends to decline as a player gets older. But on the third hand, it’s not just his speed that makes him valuable. He does have power and good bat-to-ball skills and all that. I still think 11 years is crazy, but who knows what the financial landscape will look like in 2030 or whenever that deal starts to go south?
  

• I think the Brandon Nimmo market is kind of crazy. A guy with a .384 OBP and 138 wRC+ over the last three years who has also played center field with varying levels of love from the metrics deserves a massive deal. Maybe I’m just wrong here, but I have some weird feeling that there’s a cliff he’s about to fall off. His walk rate fell this past season, though so did his swinging strike rate. He also hasn’t been a picture of health. I don’t know. I would love to have 2023 and probably 2024 Nimmo on my team, but I’m not sure I’d sign up for $20 million plus beyond that and it seems like that’s what it’ll take.