Yep I was thinking, at least about 70 wins. And that is so much better than last year. And I'd be thrilled if we got close to 80 wins. A little disappointed about McMillon, but he'll be up this year anyway. I can hardly wait until tomorrow! Opening Day should be at least a local, interstate holiday, if not a national one!
I mostly agree with your predictions. Put me in for 71 wins, partially because I think this is the year they make a big trade or two at the deadline that hurts in the short term but helps in the long term. I’m thinking that might be Salvy, Garcia, Vinnie/Pratto, Wacha, or maybe even (and this would take guts) Ragans (I keep thinking Ragans to the Orioles for two of their five top prospects, especially outfielders, makes sense for both teams).
I heard a baseball announcer on the MLB channel state there are only 15 legitimate #1 starters in the majors right now. If Ragans pitches like he did for the Royals last season, he is a legitimate #1 starter and should stay with the Royals!
But will he be healthy and still this good in 2-3 years when the Royals might be legitimate contenders? That’s the big question, especially after two Tommy John surgeries.
You cannot have enough pitching as I was at the game in freezing cold and rain that was Bubic’s last game before Tommy John surgery! The human arm was built to throw underhand versus overhand!
I think the time to trade Salvy was last year and he's reenergized and wants to stay in KC, which he has that right due to both his service time and contract. I could see Garcia going, but I think Vinnie gets extended and I don't think a Wacha trade brings back enough because of the uncertainty surrounding his player option.
Edit: Meant to add, but it does make sense that a big trade can push them back in those last couple of months.
I love Salvy….but also HATE…..it’s a strong word but the right word here….the idea of Salvy at first. Vinny needs to play there and most of Salvy’s offensive value is better played at catcher. He’s been an mlb average player with a OBP of under .300 the last two years. Unfortunately, it’s not going to start going the other way. Now, a 20hr catcher plays much better if he can stay healthy.
First can be just as hard on Salvy's joints as being a catcher, so there are some concerns there. Also, more standing, stepping, reaching and chances to lose balance. So I see your point, Joel.
Mid to low 70’s feels right. They are much improved but I’m still coming up with a number of “ifs” that need to be sorted out yet:
Catcher - solid - But Salvy is on the decline
1st base - solid…I’ll assume health from Vinny
2nd base - “if”
SS - Great
3rd base - “if” Others may be sold on Garcia…I’m not quite yet.
LF - “if”
CF - “if” can Isbel hit enough?
LF - “if” can Renfroe return to form?
DH - “if” Velasquez or Melendez need to show.
SP1 - “if” Great…if healthy
SP2 - solid
SP3 - solid
SP4 - solid
SP5 - solid - good depth here.
Just a bit too many “ifs” on the offensive side of the roster. Some will pan out, some won’t but if they just had a couple more known commodities would feel great about really competing for division yet. The strange thing is….this I feel much better about the rotation that I do the offense. Much more potential in the offense I think….but they have to get to it. Ready for the season!
There are definitely still plenty of ifs, but I do think the floor is just so much higher that it's hard to see them dipping below mid-ish 60s. Of course anything is possible.
You are exactly correct when you say it's fun to make predictions. Right or wrong, it is fun. Royals in the '24 World Series. Super duper extreme long shot, but I'm going with it.
Posted this on Royals Review as well but I will go with 75-77 wins but see the Minor Leagues take a big jump this year with 4 players in the top 100 next year and the system overall now in the middle of the pack.
That's a great point about the system. They need some of these potential high-end prospects to become actual high-end prospects. If they do that and the system starts to get into that 10-14 range, it's a successful year for the long-term of the team.
Always enjoy predictions. The upper minor leagues will be interesting to follow especially for players who could push toward KC. OF including Gentry, Cross and Waters. I could see them replacing a below average Renfroe. Starting pitching with Lynch and Veneziano certainly. The AA guys like Barnett and Champlain could move quickly if they have dominant success. Bullpen arms like Klein and McMillon have the potential. IF they could emerge, KC could move the veterans.
I had 74 wins - still a major improvement. Any more than mid 70s would mean that several Royals reached their ceiling and made huge impact. That doesn't seem to happen much in KC. It's spring and there is hope!
I think your predictions all hold water....lets plan on revisting them in your end of the year entry for fun. Here are mine: Garcia gets traded to Dodgers for 3 very good prospect to play ss there. I will miss him, but... Bubic never starts a game for the royals. They release or trade Frazier and Hamptons. The bullpen struggles. Enough talk...now "Play ball!"
Proof that inflation affects everything, even optimism:
In December (after the Will Smith acquisition), I commented here that hoping for the playoffs would be unreasonable and that 83 wins would be a huge success. Now, I'm thinking the Royals have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and anything under 75 wins would be a disaster.
I expected the Royals to sign 1, maybe 2, notable free agents and to extend Bobby Baseball. Instead, JJ managed to renovate the entire roster (while also locking up Bobby). I haven't been this excited for opening day in years.
I’m a lot more optimistic than most and think the Royals will be in contention. I believe things will start clicking for most of the younger talent and we’ll get decent to great production out of the free agents. Regardless, the season is a success for me if the young core shows good development and we find trade returns to strengthen the farm system for the long term. Even if we’re in the hunt, we HAVE to find a way to thread the needle and get prospects back for somebody so that this organization isn’t another flash in the pan.
I think there’s a very good chance they’re at least in the conversation deep into the season. Personally, that’s more about the division than them, but the flag flies no matter what. I’m predicting a 12-game gap between first and fourth, which is basically nothing over the course of long season. So many little things can happen to close that gap.
Yep I was thinking, at least about 70 wins. And that is so much better than last year. And I'd be thrilled if we got close to 80 wins. A little disappointed about McMillon, but he'll be up this year anyway. I can hardly wait until tomorrow! Opening Day should be at least a local, interstate holiday, if not a national one!
Why stop at national? How about international?
I mostly agree with your predictions. Put me in for 71 wins, partially because I think this is the year they make a big trade or two at the deadline that hurts in the short term but helps in the long term. I’m thinking that might be Salvy, Garcia, Vinnie/Pratto, Wacha, or maybe even (and this would take guts) Ragans (I keep thinking Ragans to the Orioles for two of their five top prospects, especially outfielders, makes sense for both teams).
I heard a baseball announcer on the MLB channel state there are only 15 legitimate #1 starters in the majors right now. If Ragans pitches like he did for the Royals last season, he is a legitimate #1 starter and should stay with the Royals!
But will he be healthy and still this good in 2-3 years when the Royals might be legitimate contenders? That’s the big question, especially after two Tommy John surgeries.
You cannot have enough pitching as I was at the game in freezing cold and rain that was Bubic’s last game before Tommy John surgery! The human arm was built to throw underhand versus overhand!
I think the time to trade Salvy was last year and he's reenergized and wants to stay in KC, which he has that right due to both his service time and contract. I could see Garcia going, but I think Vinnie gets extended and I don't think a Wacha trade brings back enough because of the uncertainty surrounding his player option.
Edit: Meant to add, but it does make sense that a big trade can push them back in those last couple of months.
Salvy deserves to be a Royal for the rest of his career! Fermin is a good catcher and Salvy actually surprised me how well he played 1B last season!
I love Salvy….but also HATE…..it’s a strong word but the right word here….the idea of Salvy at first. Vinny needs to play there and most of Salvy’s offensive value is better played at catcher. He’s been an mlb average player with a OBP of under .300 the last two years. Unfortunately, it’s not going to start going the other way. Now, a 20hr catcher plays much better if he can stay healthy.
First can be just as hard on Salvy's joints as being a catcher, so there are some concerns there. Also, more standing, stepping, reaching and chances to lose balance. So I see your point, Joel.
Ragans isn't going anywhere.
Here's a hot sports opinion: 6 years from now the "Chapman for Ragans" trade will be viewed as one of the best of the decade.
Mid to low 70’s feels right. They are much improved but I’m still coming up with a number of “ifs” that need to be sorted out yet:
Catcher - solid - But Salvy is on the decline
1st base - solid…I’ll assume health from Vinny
2nd base - “if”
SS - Great
3rd base - “if” Others may be sold on Garcia…I’m not quite yet.
LF - “if”
CF - “if” can Isbel hit enough?
LF - “if” can Renfroe return to form?
DH - “if” Velasquez or Melendez need to show.
SP1 - “if” Great…if healthy
SP2 - solid
SP3 - solid
SP4 - solid
SP5 - solid - good depth here.
Just a bit too many “ifs” on the offensive side of the roster. Some will pan out, some won’t but if they just had a couple more known commodities would feel great about really competing for division yet. The strange thing is….this I feel much better about the rotation that I do the offense. Much more potential in the offense I think….but they have to get to it. Ready for the season!
There are definitely still plenty of ifs, but I do think the floor is just so much higher that it's hard to see them dipping below mid-ish 60s. Of course anything is possible.
You are exactly correct when you say it's fun to make predictions. Right or wrong, it is fun. Royals in the '24 World Series. Super duper extreme long shot, but I'm going with it.
Can I have what you’re drinking? It would be fun though.
Just optimism bordering on insanity.
I actually put 10 on it to win 1500 to dream on for the next ?month? If it hits everyone in here is drinking on me one night in October ;)
Posted this on Royals Review as well but I will go with 75-77 wins but see the Minor Leagues take a big jump this year with 4 players in the top 100 next year and the system overall now in the middle of the pack.
That's a great point about the system. They need some of these potential high-end prospects to become actual high-end prospects. If they do that and the system starts to get into that 10-14 range, it's a successful year for the long-term of the team.
Always enjoy predictions. The upper minor leagues will be interesting to follow especially for players who could push toward KC. OF including Gentry, Cross and Waters. I could see them replacing a below average Renfroe. Starting pitching with Lynch and Veneziano certainly. The AA guys like Barnett and Champlain could move quickly if they have dominant success. Bullpen arms like Klein and McMillon have the potential. IF they could emerge, KC could move the veterans.
I had 74 wins - still a major improvement. Any more than mid 70s would mean that several Royals reached their ceiling and made huge impact. That doesn't seem to happen much in KC. It's spring and there is hope!
I think your predictions all hold water....lets plan on revisting them in your end of the year entry for fun. Here are mine: Garcia gets traded to Dodgers for 3 very good prospect to play ss there. I will miss him, but... Bubic never starts a game for the royals. They release or trade Frazier and Hamptons. The bullpen struggles. Enough talk...now "Play ball!"
Proof that inflation affects everything, even optimism:
In December (after the Will Smith acquisition), I commented here that hoping for the playoffs would be unreasonable and that 83 wins would be a huge success. Now, I'm thinking the Royals have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and anything under 75 wins would be a disaster.
I expected the Royals to sign 1, maybe 2, notable free agents and to extend Bobby Baseball. Instead, JJ managed to renovate the entire roster (while also locking up Bobby). I haven't been this excited for opening day in years.
I’m a lot more optimistic than most and think the Royals will be in contention. I believe things will start clicking for most of the younger talent and we’ll get decent to great production out of the free agents. Regardless, the season is a success for me if the young core shows good development and we find trade returns to strengthen the farm system for the long term. Even if we’re in the hunt, we HAVE to find a way to thread the needle and get prospects back for somebody so that this organization isn’t another flash in the pan.
I think there’s a very good chance they’re at least in the conversation deep into the season. Personally, that’s more about the division than them, but the flag flies no matter what. I’m predicting a 12-game gap between first and fourth, which is basically nothing over the course of long season. So many little things can happen to close that gap.