24 Comments

Yep I was thinking, at least about 70 wins. And that is so much better than last year. And I'd be thrilled if we got close to 80 wins. A little disappointed about McMillon, but he'll be up this year anyway. I can hardly wait until tomorrow! Opening Day should be at least a local, interstate holiday, if not a national one!

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I mostly agree with your predictions. Put me in for 71 wins, partially because I think this is the year they make a big trade or two at the deadline that hurts in the short term but helps in the long term. I’m thinking that might be Salvy, Garcia, Vinnie/Pratto, Wacha, or maybe even (and this would take guts) Ragans (I keep thinking Ragans to the Orioles for two of their five top prospects, especially outfielders, makes sense for both teams).

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Mid to low 70’s feels right. They are much improved but I’m still coming up with a number of “ifs” that need to be sorted out yet:

Catcher - solid - But Salvy is on the decline

1st base - solid…I’ll assume health from Vinny

2nd base - “if”

SS - Great

3rd base - “if” Others may be sold on Garcia…I’m not quite yet.

LF - “if”

CF - “if” can Isbel hit enough?

LF - “if” can Renfroe return to form?

DH - “if” Velasquez or Melendez need to show.

SP1 - “if” Great…if healthy

SP2 - solid

SP3 - solid

SP4 - solid

SP5 - solid - good depth here.

Just a bit too many “ifs” on the offensive side of the roster. Some will pan out, some won’t but if they just had a couple more known commodities would feel great about really competing for division yet. The strange thing is….this I feel much better about the rotation that I do the offense. Much more potential in the offense I think….but they have to get to it. Ready for the season!

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Mar 27Liked by David Lesky

You are exactly correct when you say it's fun to make predictions. Right or wrong, it is fun. Royals in the '24 World Series. Super duper extreme long shot, but I'm going with it.

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Posted this on Royals Review as well but I will go with 75-77 wins but see the Minor Leagues take a big jump this year with 4 players in the top 100 next year and the system overall now in the middle of the pack.

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Mar 27Liked by David Lesky

Always enjoy predictions. The upper minor leagues will be interesting to follow especially for players who could push toward KC. OF including Gentry, Cross and Waters. I could see them replacing a below average Renfroe. Starting pitching with Lynch and Veneziano certainly. The AA guys like Barnett and Champlain could move quickly if they have dominant success. Bullpen arms like Klein and McMillon have the potential. IF they could emerge, KC could move the veterans.

I had 74 wins - still a major improvement. Any more than mid 70s would mean that several Royals reached their ceiling and made huge impact. That doesn't seem to happen much in KC. It's spring and there is hope!

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Mar 27Liked by David Lesky

I think your predictions all hold water....lets plan on revisting them in your end of the year entry for fun. Here are mine: Garcia gets traded to Dodgers for 3 very good prospect to play ss there. I will miss him, but... Bubic never starts a game for the royals. They release or trade Frazier and Hamptons. The bullpen struggles. Enough talk...now "Play ball!"

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Proof that inflation affects everything, even optimism:

In December (after the Will Smith acquisition), I commented here that hoping for the playoffs would be unreasonable and that 83 wins would be a huge success. Now, I'm thinking the Royals have a legitimate shot at the playoffs and anything under 75 wins would be a disaster.

I expected the Royals to sign 1, maybe 2, notable free agents and to extend Bobby Baseball. Instead, JJ managed to renovate the entire roster (while also locking up Bobby). I haven't been this excited for opening day in years.

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I’m a lot more optimistic than most and think the Royals will be in contention. I believe things will start clicking for most of the younger talent and we’ll get decent to great production out of the free agents. Regardless, the season is a success for me if the young core shows good development and we find trade returns to strengthen the farm system for the long term. Even if we’re in the hunt, we HAVE to find a way to thread the needle and get prospects back for somebody so that this organization isn’t another flash in the pan.

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