A Closer Look at Royals Fifth Starter Candidates

A competition I didn't think was real is coming down to the wire in Royals camp.

Two months ago, if you had said that there was an actual competition for any spot in the Royals rotation, I’d have said you’re crazy. Cole Ragans was so good for the team after he was acquired that he was in. Seth Lugo signed a three-year deal, so you know he’s in. Michael Wacha signed for the largest AAV, so you know he’s in. Brady Singer still has upside and has had success recently, so you know he’s in. And Jordan Lyles is entering the second year of a multi-year deal signed basically with throwing innings as his only value, so you know he’s in. Only it turns out, Lyles was never guaranteed that spot.

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There was discussion of that, sure, but I thought it was all talk. I either wrote something about that or said something about that on the radio when I got a text from a source I trust quite a bit. It said they are 100 percent willing to give that spot to someone else and, in fact, they might prefer it if that spot is won by someone else. So here we are a week and a half before the start of the season and a competition that I didn’t think was real and then thought was only between two people has now included a third and sort of a fourth and I think in my next roster projection may have Lyles in the bullpen, so let’s look at the candidates in alphabetical order.

Jordan Lyles

Ahh yes, the incumbent. We know the contract. We also know what he put out there last year in the first year of his deal. On most teams, a 6.28 ERA with a lackluster strikeout rate would lose you your job. On the 2023 Royals, he actually did have some value for the innings thrown. The rest of the rotation showed such an inability to get deep into games that there were days the Royals could really use six or seven innings even if it meant five or six runs allowed.

Lyles throws a lot of pitches, so there’s that. He has a four-seamer, a sweeper, a curve, a sinker, a changeup and a cutter. The problem is that none of the pitches are good, or at least they weren’t in 2023. His velocity is nothing special. His spin rate is nothing special. He doesn’t get hit hard on much of anything and actually was kind of interesting last year because while he did give up so many runs, he actually gave up fewer hits than innings pitched and didn’t walk that many hitters.

I certainly wouldn’t classify him as unlucky because he had a 5.62 FIP and 4.96 xERA. So I guess that’s unlucky compared to the actual ERA, but still bad. He did also allow a .255 BABIP, which is well below league average, but only stranded 56.3 percent of runners, which is pretty terrible. There’s some luck in that and also some bad pitcher in that. That said, here are his LOB percentages in the previous five seasons:

2022: 73.8%
2021: 75.1%
2020: 57.2%
2019: 75.7%
2018: 74.1%

So one stinker like 2023 and the rest were much more normal. His xERA was right in line with what he put up with Baltimore. Though I guess if 40 percent of your seasons are one way, maybe that is something that is possible for a guy. Either way, there probably is some bounce back in him even if he is the same guy in 2024 that he was in 2023. And a 4.96 ERA out of the fifth spot if he’s giving six or seven innings every start wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.

One thing I do want to address because I see it in the comments is that the issue for Lyles wasn’t that Matt Quatraro left him in games too long. Don’t get me wrong, his performance from the sixth inning on was really bad. But so was his performance in the first few innings. He had a 6.39 ERA in the first, 7.42 in the third and 7.76 in the fourth in 2023. I think where the perception comes from with him struggling if he’s left in past five is that he was especially bad in the sixth inning with an 11.81 ERA. But let’s not pretend like he was cruising most nights and that’s what tripped him up.

Why He’s the Best Candidate: It’s the innings, and in a rotation that now theoretically features four competent or better starters, there are worse things than getting six innings every fifth day even if it does come with four or five runs allowed. Having someone to take the ball 30 times and give you that kind of certainty regarding the use of the bullpen is very useful.

Why He’s Not the Best Candidate: It’s everything else. How important are innings when the team is out of the game already? I’ll get to two other guys with higher upside who may have the downside of Lyles, but I don’t feel like you’re ever going to expect seven innings with two runs allowed. It just doesn’t happen. There is a ceiling with Lyles and it’s simply not high enough compared to some of the others.

Daniel Lynch IV

Coming into spring, this was the competition. It was Lynch vs. Lyles and, as I mentioned, I didn’t think it was a real battle. Then I heard from someone who I trust who said that not only is it real but that the Royals privately want Lynch to win this thing. I’ve found myself more disappointed in Lynch than any of the big five the Royals drafted in 2018, and some of it is my own fault. If I knew as much about pitch shape a few years ago as I do now (and I still don’t know near enough), I never would have been as excited about Lynch. The fastball is just too hittable. But I can’t change the past.

The struggle for Lynch is that he had a shoulder issue he dealt with all of last season and it cost him valuable time in the big leagues and maybe a bit of velocity. He averaged 93.8 MPH on his four-seamer in 2021 as a rookie and 94.0 MPH in 2022. It was still hit, so the velocity didn’t save him or anything, but velocity is important. Every MPH makes it a bit tougher on the hitter, and can set up his other pitches, which is equally important to Lynch because he actually does get some swing and miss on the rest.

I mentioned the fastball. It isn’t especially good, but there’s room for growth. Lynch was actually the first BSOHL (best shape of his life) candidate I remember this year when he said that he’d put on 25 lbs. as part of his rehab from his shoulder injury. His changeup is very good and getting better. Opponents hit just .125 on it in 64 at bats with a 34.7 percent whiff rate. That’s legit. He adds a slider and a curve as well as a sinker that he rarely throws these days. The curve was a pitch that he’s thrown more over the three years, but with worse and worse results. He’s been working with it a lot this spring.

The thing about Lynch is the upside is there but I don’t see what I once saw. As I said before, maybe I never should have seen it, but I did and so did many others. My concern for him so far this spring is that the velocity simply hasn’t bounced back, which limits the upside even more. When I saw him live, he was 90-92 with a few 89s mixed in. Since then, it’s been more of the same, so his last appearance or two will be big on that front. But he did have one of his best outings in his last one, striking out five over four innings. He said the breaking balls felt good.

This is where Lynch differs from Lyles in terms of upside even if the ceiling isn’t as high as I once thought. He’s capable of these types of games. And he did throw more strikes in his limited big league time last year. He was at 64.1 percent first pitch strikes, up from 55.6 percent his rookie year and 58.7 percent in 2022. His walk rate was down to 7.2 percent. I’d love more strikeouts, but you can live with a bit lower rate if the walk rate is low enough and that rate is good enough. He had the same xERA as Lyles last year, but the hard-hit rate dropped a bunch. His barrel rate allowed dropped some. And so did both his average exit velocity allowed and maximum exit velocity. A lot of signs point to him being a more than competent back-of-the-rotation starter even if the velocity never comes back.

Why He’s the Best Candidate: Lynch has had big league success as a starter. It’s been somewhat fleeting, and it’s been awhile, but he looked really good after coming back up from the minors in 2021 in a seven-start stretch. It might be the last time he was fully healthy too, which is a good thing and a bad thing to think about. I think Lynch combines the upside to be a bit more than a five with the floor that makes you feel pretty good about being in the game when he exits more often than not.

Why He’s Not the Best Candidate: The phrase that the best ability is availability is one that sort of makes me bristle, but it doesn’t mean it’s not true. Lynch only threw 52.1 innings last year and he’s never actually had big league success when he’s thrown more than that. It’s just difficult to count on someone who spent so much time with a shoulder issue last season. Also, I’ll get to this with the next candidate, but maybe it’s better to have a bit more volatility if that volatility means more upside.

Alec Marsh

Before spring, Marsh was mentioned as a candidate for the fifth starter job, but I don’t know if anyone actually believed he was a real candidate. All he’s done this spring is pitch his way not only into the conversation, but maybe into the lead. This spring, he’s thrown 14 innings with eight hits allowed, 17 strikeouts and four walks. That’s been good for a 1.93 ERA, but the number I keep focusing on is the four walks. Last year, he walked 39 in 74.1 big league innings. That was after walking 31 in 62.1 minor league innings. That’s a lot of walks.

He’s also susceptible to the home run ball. Walking guys is a pain but great stuff can work around that. Giving up home runs is bad too, but not having guys on base can minimize the damage. But when you’re giving up free bases and then giving up home runs, it’s just brutal. So to be able to minimize the walks is huge. It’s just spring, but strikeouts and walks generally tend to normalize quickly, so that’s a very good sign for him.

If you’re looking for stuff and upside, Marsh is your guy. In the big leagues last year, he averaged 94.2 MPH on his four-seamer, but he can get it to the upper-90s and has done a lot of that this spring. Granted, the outings are shorter so maybe it’s a pacing issue, but he can throw hard. He also has a very good sweeper that gets a ton of whiffs along with a curve, changeup and slider. All of those pitches generated a whiff rate of 26.8 percent or higher at the big league level. His fastball was actually at 25.8 percent, so he’s getting swings and misses. His only pitch that didn’t generate whiffs was one that wasn’t designed to - his sinker.

Marsh is a high-spin pitcher with all of his offerings, which can give a pretty uncomfortable at bat. But the reality is that he’s just never really had results. Preston Farr from Farm to Fountains wrote a great piece on Marsh last week that I’d encourage you all to read. In it, he talked about the reworking of Marsh’s mechanics led to a bit of a development delay, but the fastball started to take on a much better shape toward the end of last season when he was used in more of a bulk role. In his last five outings, the results weren’t amazing, but he struck out 25 and walked 10 in 22.1 innings with one home run allowed.

Three things happened in that time. First, he threw more sweepers and fewer fastballs, which helps. But the fastball became a real weapon for him. He allowed a .154 average and .186 xBA on that pitch. It looked so much better. And he also incorporated his sinker much more. A sinker is generally going to get some hits, but a good one is tough to lift and the average launch angle on the sinker in those final five outings was just 1.9°. It was an interesting shift in arsenal and results that he seems to be carrying with him this spring.

Why He’s the Best Candidate: Marsh has a higher ceiling than Lyles or Lynch and while his floor is probably lower than Lynch’s, it’s at least on par with Lyles. Yes, there is a chance that Marsh will either be in the bullpen or Omaha by May, but I think his ability to actually dominate hitters makes a difference, especially when you look at the rest of the rotation. Ragans is going to get strikeouts. The rest might, but also might not. Having another guy who can get swing and miss is big for the rotation.

Why He’s Not the Best Candidate: It’s the inconsistency. Marsh was a high draft pick and has shown the ability to get strikeouts at all levels, but he’s also never shown the ability to actually get enough outs. He gave up 14 runs in 25.1 innings in AA in 2021. Then he posted a 7.32 ERA in 25 starts there the next year. It was better last year, but still had an ERA above 5.00 with too many walks. And the small sample in AAA was good, but it’s a tiny sample. I can see the Royals wanting at least a little more in the way of previous results.

There is one more candidate and it’s Angel Zerpa. I don’t think he’s got any real shot at this point, so I didn’t include him since I already went very long on this, but there is a chance he could reemerge if he dominates and there’s an injury or two to the above. He’s had a nice spring, but I think he’s either in the bullpen or depth in Omaha. I’m going to do one more roster projection this week, so I’m giving something away, but I think Marsh is the guy right now.

It’s never great for a guy competing when you pitch the same day as one of your competitors and the competitor does better. That’s what happened to Lyles and Marsh over the weekend against the Cubs. Lyles gave up four homers in three innings while Marsh gave up one but struck out five and didn’t walk anyone in four innings. I think Marsh provides the perfect amount of upside. The reality is that there is always time to make a change. Lyles will likely make the roster due to his contract, though I doubt he’s on the big league club all year. He can be there for long relief if Marsh (or anyone really) needs it. And if a change is necessary, he can step in at that time. But I think Marsh is the best candidate now and I kind of think he’s going to get the job.