18 Comments

I mean, it’s a win I think to start the year if someone beats out Lyles. At this point I hope it is Marsh, let the year start….see where you get with performance and injuries. If the numbers stay the same and they still go with Lyles….that would be a disappointment at this point. I hope they don’t. Sounds like your source is really confident in it.

Expand full comment

I wouldn't say my source is confident that Marsh is going to win the job, but that there's an actually real competition for it. If that's the case, then it stands to reason Lyles can't be the fifth starter because he's pitched worse than either of the two main competitors for the job. Naming Cole Ragans the Opening Day starter is interesting. The order of when guys start is less impactful than who is starting every fifth day, so it means a bit less, but giving it to the guy who deserves it the most over the contract is at least encouraging.

Expand full comment

No matter what happens with the "fifth starter" (and I'm on the Marsh bandwagon), I think the Royals will have the most improved starting rotation in the Major Leagues this year. No one could have predicted our top 3 starters at this time last year (Ragans/Lugo/Wacha)...and we were all hoping (praying?) that Singer would be one of them. I think the front office has done an amazing job of revamping the pitching staff, and the prospect of adding Kyle Wright to the mix next year is encouraging (I saw a 10 year old study of pitchers successfully coming back from his type of shoulder injury in 12-18 months with proper rehab). Can't wait for Ragans on opening day!

Expand full comment

That's an interesting point, and I think i agree with you. You'd be hard-pressed to see a bigger transformation from Opening Day to Opening Day than what the Royals have made. Can you share that study with me if you've got it? It's vaguely familiar, but I'd love to see it.

Expand full comment

Search for "anterior shoulder capsular tear"...but the summary of results bodes well for a 28 year old pitcher with ~18 months between his surgery and the start of the 2025 season:

Results: The mean age was 33.5 years (range, 31-37 years), and all patients presented with anterior shoulder pain and the inability to throw. No patient had an acute traumatic injury. Magnetic resonance imaging provided the correct diagnosis in 4 patients, and the diagnosis was made with diagnostic arthroscopy in the fifth. Three underwent arthroscopic repair, and 2 underwent open repair of the anterior capsule. Of the 5 players, 4 (80%) returned to their preinjury level by a mean of 13.3 months (range, 8-18 months).

Expand full comment

Oh that sounds more familiar now that you say that. I think I found it when they made the trade (and then promptly forgot everything about it haha). Either way, it's very encouraging. obviously no guarantee, but that could be a nice addition that people are already forgetting about.

Expand full comment

Was that who they got for Kowar as well? Not that you trade a guy knowing he is going to immediately have TJ. But that’s just how it happened anyway. So the Royals really weren’t even out anything this year because Kowar wasn’t going to be available if the case.

Expand full comment

Yep, he came over for Kowar. I have to look every time because I can never remember if it was Kowar for Nick Anderson or Kowar for Wright. It was Wright.

Expand full comment

The start of positive luck turning??Trading a guy for something next year when he immediately has TJ and out for at least 12 months………..I think so. They are due for positive regression to the mean. Lol.

Expand full comment

count me as one of the many who forgot about Wright. in fact there are so many new additions I keep forgetting who is who. Nice problem to have as a fan

Expand full comment

It should be Marsh, but will be Lyles is my prediction. Might be Marsh by June.

Expand full comment

I totally get being skeptical. It feels like they’re operating differently though.

Expand full comment

Just think it will take a while to turn the aircraft carrier around.

Expand full comment

Like I said, I get that reasoning. But if it's as real of a competition as I'm told it is, there's no way Lyles wins the job as of this moment.

Expand full comment

I very happily stand corrected! Hooray to the Royals!

Expand full comment

Someday someone will believe me haha.

Expand full comment

Extremely informative. Thank you. I'm betting on Marsh although a bit of a longshot.

Expand full comment