A Look Back at a Dreadful First Half

The Royals were bad and they should feel bad.

We came into the 2023 season knowing that even the front office didn’t think the Royals had much of a chance to compete. But they put themselves in a bit of an awkward position. Yes, Dayton Moore was fired, and it was an earned dismissal. But promoting his second-in-command, while it may or may not prove to be the right move, means the leash is much shorter, at least in the eyes of the public. They did go out of house to bring in a new manager, pitching coach and assistant pitching coach, but so much of the cast and crew is the same as the 65-97 team that cost jobs that it can certainly make people antsy.

But the Royals were up front that this is an evaluation year, maybe more up front about their ability to contend than they’d been in a long, long time. That doesn’t win them any awards for being honest about being bad, but it was nice to hear that they sort of understand where they are in the cycle. Even with that honesty, things have been about as bad as they could be, both from the record and the way they’ve gotten there. When John Sherman spoke a couple of weeks ago, he didn’t shy away from that. They thought it might be bad, but it’s even worse than that.

Now they’re left with 71 games to try to avoid being one of the worst teams in the history of baseball by record. They’re on pace for a 46-116 record. The 116 losses would be the fifth-most of all-time and the third-most since 1901. Those rankings could get bumped down one because the Oakland A’s might end up worse, but that doesn’t change the fact that this season is an unmitigated disaster. But ultimately, does it really matter if they’re the fifth-worst team of all-time or the 22nd-worst? The goal for the rest of the season is the same. It’s to figure out what you have and, subsequently, what you don’t have and then make the changes necessary to start the road back to contention.

So let’s take a look at what’s gone right, what’s gone right and what is still undetermined.

What’s Gone Right?

There isn’t much here, unfortunately, but what has gone right, I think has gone really right. The two brightest spots on the team have been on the left side of the infield with Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. I went into the season thinking their best defensive infield alignment had Garcia at shortstop and Witt at third. There’s a chance that those two in those spots is still correct, but they’re providing some excellent defense in the other order this season, so I’m fine with leaving them there and not messing with a good thing.

At third base, Garcia has been eight outs above average (OAA), which ranks as the third-best in baseball. The two ahead of him, Ryan McMahon and Ke’Bryan Hayes, have played 593.2 and 630.2 innings this year respectively. Garcia has played 375. OAA is a counting stat. Assuming he’d maintain the rate he’s started the year with, he’d be around 13 OAA if he had the innings of the two ahead of them. Now, McMahon does have 12, so he’s also been excellent, but Garcia has been the best third baseman in baseball, inning-for-inning. That’s impressive, especially when you consider that he had played all of 85 professional innings there before being called up.

Moving over to shortstop, Witt has also been eight outs above average, which ranks fourth in all of baseball. That’s excellent without context. The fact that he sat at -9 last year makes the improvement even more remarkable. He’s gotten there by doing much better on the routine plays, among other things. On batted balls with an estimated success rate of 75 percent or higher, he converted 92 percent of them at shortstop last year. This year, he’s at 94 percent. That seems like a small difference, but he was -5 OAA on those balls last year and +2 this year. He’s also made some spectacular plays that help. Last year, he didn’t convert any with an estimated success rate of 30 percent or lower and he’s gotten a few this year. So these two defensively have done the job.

And offensively, they look like the leadoff and two hitters for the next few seasons. It’s nice to be able to start the lineup with the first two hitters and not have to think twice. Garcia has hit .284/.342/.389 with a walk rate of 8.1 percent. His strikeout rate is a bit higher than I expected, but it’s not because he’s swinging and missing. I think he’s been a little more passive than I’d like to see and I also think he’s gotten some bad calls. I’d anticipate the strikeout rate dropping. I wonder a bit if he knows he’s going to be a third baseman moving forward and if that means he might put on a little muscle. He has surprising power for his size, but if he could add 10-15 lbs. of muscle, you might be looking at a 30-35 double, 12-15 home run bat, which certainly works with his bat to ball skills and on-base skills.

Witt was on the struggle bus to start the year. I’m not entirely sure why they were so insistent on putting him at the top of the lineup, but he hit there 41 times in his first 47 games. At the end of those 47 games, he was hitting .226/.267/.410. It wasn’t working. so he was dropped down in the order and has hit .293/.337/.479 since. Since the start of June, he’s hit .306/.356/.453. What’s changed from the first two months to the last month and a half? He’s making better swing decisions.

In those first two months, he swung at 36.3 percent of pitches outside the zone and 52.1 percent of all pitches he saw. From the start of June to now, he’s swung at 33.8 percent of pitches outside the zone and 50.5 percent of all pitches. And it’s worked! It’s led to fewer swings and misses and ultimately much better results. The biggest story of the second half of the season, to me, is seeing if Witt can keep this up. He had six extra base hits in the last week before the break. If he can continue to add back the power to his game along with the better approach, he may actually be the star we thought he’d be.

It isn’t just those two, though, again, they’re the brightest stars. Vinnie Pasquantino showed that last year wasn’t a fluke. He slumped before the season-ending injury, but you have to wonder just how healthy he was for a few weeks before that. While I think Salvador Perez is having a rough go right now, he’s shown that, when healthy, he continues to be a legitimate middle of the order bat. I think he just needs more days off than before, when he still needed days off he never got. But if you look at those four to start a lineup, that’s a nice start.

Related to Perez is Freddy Fermin, who is the best offensive backup the Royals have had in Perez’s career. His presence should make them feel comfortable with giving Perez more days off moving forward. That’s a good thing.

On the pitching side, what’s gone right? Not much. They did get Aroldis Chapman back to what he once was and were able to acquire someone who I would bet on being in the rotation in the second half along with a high upside second piece. Other than that, it’s Carlos Hernandez. I feel comfortable with him in any situation, which is crazy considering where he was last season. He’s averaging near 100 with his fastball, walking just 6.8 percent of hitters and striking out 28.8 percent. That’s legit.

What’s Gone Wrong?

How much time do you have? Some of it is sort of out of the team’s control. Pasquantino’s injury really stinks. Kris Bubic looked like he might be taking a step forward and then he had to go under the knife. Daniel Lynch missed the first two months of a very important season for him. Drew Waters missing time to start the year was unfortunate and then Kyle Isbel missing time as well didn’t help in that evaluation. I think you can make an argument that injuries require some blame to be placed on the team, but also, they happen.

On the field, some things have been a disaster. Similar to what’s gone right, two players stand out to me where things have gone so horribly wrong. I honestly don’t even know which one is the more glaring issue, but the two are Brady Singer and MJ Melendez. I think the bigger concern for me is Singer actually. He looked like he had broken through with a very strong 2022 season that made many believe he could be a long-term answer in the rotation. And it wasn’t just fans desperate for optimism. He had a 3.23 ERA and a 3.58 FIP in 153.1 innings. He walked just 5.6 percent of hitters and struck out 24.2 percent. Those are legitimately good big league numbers.

And this year, he’s cratered. In some ways, he’s really just reverted back to what he was in 2020 and 2021 when he had a 4.05 FIP. I use FIP because there were some indicators that he was a bit unlucky in 2021 when he posted the 4.91 ERA. This year, his FIP is 4.26, which is a massive difference from his 5.80 ERA. In fact, it’s the largest gap among qualified starters in baseball and it’s the largest by a lot. So maybe there are some indicators that he’s a bit unlucky, but he’s also struck out a career-low 18.1 percent of batters (he hadn’t been below 22.4 percent previously) and his velocity is down as well.

If you’re a believer in the Stuff+ metric, Singer doesn’t have especially good stuff. He sits at 89, which means he’s 11 percent below average. Among qualified starters, he ranks 55th out of 64. That doesn’t mean he can’t be successful. Pitching isn’t only stuff. Bryce Elder, for example, is 62nd and has a 2.97 ERA. Dane Dunning is 60th with a 2.84 ERA. But better stuff makes it easier to pitch. It allows for mistakes.

A third pitch would help that too and Singer continues to be reluctant to throw that third pitch. I just question if he’s good enough to be consistently relied on in a competitive team’s rotation. This year is showing he isn’t. Could he bounce back next year? Sure! Could he continue to struggle? Absolutely.

And then there’s Melendez. I know people are ready to throw him out the window while driving on a bridge at 80 MPH, but one of the biggest keys to turning things around is Melendez figuring things out. Here are some bullet points on Melendez before 2023:

• Hit .293/.413/.620 as a 22-year old in AAA with a swing and miss rate of 11.6 percent, a walk rate of 17.4 percent and a strikeout rate of 21.2 percent.

• Posts a 99 wRC+ as a rookie while learning a new position and walking 12.4 percent of the time and striking out 24.5 percent of the time with a swing and miss rate of 11.4 percent.

• Posted a 78th percentile MLB chase rate as a rookie.

• Was in the 81st percentile in average exit velocity, 71st in maximum exit velocity and 69th in hard-hit rate.

Look at those four bullet points and, forget the defense for a minute, you see an offensive force, right? I mean, it all checks out. But it just hasn’t happened. The batted ball metrics have actually improved, but I think some of that is because he simply doesn’t bat the ball enough. His swinging strike rate is 16.1 percent. His chase rate is now in the 47th percentile. There will be some who point to a .217 average last year as reason to have been concerned coming into this season and that’s fair, but there are so many indicators that show he should simply be better than this.

I don’t know why this has happened to him, but it’s bad right now for the guy. My opinion is that there’s no shame in having to spend a little time at AAA to get right. A hard-hit rate of 51 percent with an average exit velocity of 93 MPH is something you don’t give up on without working on things at a lower level. Part of the issue is the launch angle because he’s hitting the ball hard, but without a lot of opportunity for the ball to fall. I think there’s still an above average bat in him, but he needs to get back to having a plan at the plate to make up for some of the deficiencies he has.

And that doesn’t even take into account his horrific defense. He was bad behind the plate. The Royals made the correct decision to move him to the outfield full-time. The idea was that he had a chance to focus on his hitting while not having to split his time between two positions. It would also allow him to get better as an outfielder. He just hasn’t. I thought he was athletic enough that with an offseason of work, he’d get better, but it isn’t happening. His arm is a weapon and he’s actually +3 in defensive runs saved in left field, though that’s pretty much entirely his arm. But his poor defense is the reason his bat is even more glaring.

I’ve said many times before that I don’t think Melendez is long for this organization. His biggest contributions to a winning Royals team in the future are likely in the return he brings back in a trade. But he can’t be traded until he starts producing more. And if he does, the Royals can enjoy the fruits of that to add to the top four they feel good about and then be able to move him and get back additional contributors.

Those are the two biggest disappointments, but come on. Jordan Lyles has been a disastrous signing. Michael Massey had a very nice stretch and did just have a great game over the weekend, but his offense has been rough overall, though on the rise somewhat. Isbel hasn’t hit. Neither has Waters, at least not consistently. Brad Keller had an okay ERA, but walked 40 in 43.1 innings before going on the IL and now can’t throw strikes on his rehab assignment. The bullpen has been a disaster more often than you’d like. It’s hard to start pinpointing individuals when a lot has gone wrong.

What’s Left to Learn?

There’s actually plenty here. Let’s go back to feeling good about four spots in the lineup (though Pasquantino is no guarantee but I’m assuming he’ll come back as others have). How can the Royals add at least two more players to that for the 2023 season? Massey has had a disappointing season, but he’s hit .254/.338/.410 since the start of May with a walk rate nearing 10 percent and a strikeout rate just over 22 percent. He’s been solid defensively as well. That’s a line that you can win with at the bottom of the lineup and with good defense. I’d love to see him stay healthy and keep doing that.

Nick Pratto is maybe the biggest what if in the lineup. The strikeouts are just untenable. His swinging strike rate is high, but in line with some of the game’s best hitters. You can be very successful swinging and missing 13.1 percent of the time. But it’s tough to be successful striking out 37.7 percent of the time. A lot of this is passivity from him. He swings the bat just 41 percent of the time. I love some patience and that number itself doesn’t mean he can’t be successful. He just needs to be better situationally.

Only Ryan Noda and Jack Suwinski have more called third strikes against them than Pratto. Suwinski has 40 more plate appearances and Noda has 66 more. Just four of the 37 called third strikes are on pitches that were outside of the Gameday strike zone, so even though I feel like Pratto has had a lot of bad luck with umpires, it hasn’t impacted his called third strikes that much. That said, 18 of them have been on the edges, but in the zone.

I appreciate the idea that he doesn’t want to swing at a pitch he can’t drive, but with two strikes, that needs to go outside of that window, especially in big situations. He leads baseball in called third strikes with runners on with 19. He’s third in baseball in called third strikes with runners in scoring position. Putting the bat on the ball has value. He’s going to strike out. That’s part of his game. But he needs to cut down on those called third strikes to be successful. I’ll be interested to see how he handles that in the second half of the season.

I want to know if Waters or Isbel can hit. The evidence we have for Waters is that he’s going to strike out, but maybe he can hit. He started slow, but is hitting .321/.351/.491 in his last 16 games. I’m not sure how sustainable it is with a nearly 40 percent strikeout rate, but at least he’s doing it. Isbel hasn’t shown he can hit big league pitching since a very small sample at the end of the 2021 season. But he did finish the first half with a bang, going 4 for 6 with a home run, a double and two walks. With his defense, he doesn’t have to be a star. He just has to be like a 90 wRC+ guy. You can live with that if he’s playing center field the way he does.

On the pitching staff, the returns on Lynch since he’s come back from the IL are actually pretty solid. A walk rate right at 7 percent plays. An ERA of 4.18 in eight starts plays. A strikeout rate of 15.5 percent does not generally play. I’ve appreciated in-game adjustments from him and if he can ever have a game with his changeup and slider both working, we’ll see the strikeout rate jump. But he’s doing a nice job of generally keeping the team in the game. He’s given up three or fewer runs in six of his eight starts. That’s enough to win.

And the rest is really about the young guys. I want to see Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan, Angel Zerpa, Austin Cox and Anthony Veneziano (that’s a lot of first names starting with an “A”) get some run. I don’t know if all can start, but there are plenty of bullpen innings to go around too, if need be. I want to see Hernandez in a closer role after more trades.

I want to see more of Jonathan Heasley and Dylan Coleman in the bullpen and I want to see them call up Will Klein and John McMillon and Christian Chamberlain. Let’s see what they have. I don’t care if they walk guys. I want them to get their feet wet. I think there is some insane bullpen talent in this organization. Some won’t make it. Some will. Now is the time to see who is more likely and who is less likely.

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Utilizing these next 71 games to find out an awful lot will go a long way toward determining the course of action they take in the winter. Let’s say they determine that Massey and one of Waters and Isbel can be a part of an everyday lineup. Now they have six bats. Maybe Pratto joins them too. That’s seven. If Melendez gets right, that’s eight. I think it’s pretty likely that only one or two of those five is determined to be a long-term contributor, but that’s what the Royals need to know. They need to figure out how they’re shopping this winter. Is it for a second baseman? A left fielder? Both?

How many starters do they need to add? I think it’s fair to say that you assume you’ll see Singer and Lynch in the 2024 rotation, almost no matter what. But who is behind them? If they can somehow trade Lyles, a bunch of players are going to have the chance to fill in behind them. But do they need one starter or three? Can Hernandez or any of the other 97 MPH+ relievers they have fill the closer’s role or should they go out and spend a little on someone for the ninth?

I maintain that I believe they will spend in some way, whether it’s via trade or free agency. I don’t think they have much of a choice. A losing season but one that showed progress in 2023 could have been spun to keep going with smaller tweaks, but the way this season has gone, the only option is to fill in the gaps even if they don’t think they’re ready. But nearly every pitch thrown and nearly every at bat taken needs to be with their offseason plan and 2025 and beyond in mind.

There are lots of questions to still be answered to provide some interesting things to keep an eye on for a team barreling toward irrelevant relevancy. The second half certainly has storylines to follow.