This whole article is entirely accurate unfortunately. My take on it is that we are a long way away from contention, even if we hit on 50% of the 'what if' scenarios. As Royals fans we are well trained to focus on the what if scenarios though...
As it currently stands in the organization, it's not next year and probably not 2025. But things can certainly change fast. I honestly really do like what they're doing with pitching development now and I'll be curious to see how that translates.
Say what you want a lot of this boils down to good management and coaching. They are inconsistent at everything both pitching and hitting. You are not going to get quality play and hitting until you get a consistent line up and build continuity. Need to decide a a permanent 2nd baseman, what are they going to do with Pratto when P returns next year, their isn’t much difference in their bats, Pratto needs to be better prepared with 2 strikes, Melendez’s problem is all in his hips, he drops them and bails out on too many pitches swinging or looking, he’s not an outfielder unless someone will aggressively work with him. Think of the money they have wasted on Greinke for 2 years, Bradley Jr. and Reyes were a waste of time money and effort. Glad Garrett is gone, hopefully Cuas and Isbel are next. There is nothing wrong with the young talent on this team, it just needs developed properly, staff changes this year didn’t help and need to be evaluated again, you can say they haven’t had enough time but they aren’t even making slight or game time adjustments. Never seen so many infielders out of position on ground balls. Pitchers hitting the spot, where the catchers glove is and getting hammered, Fermin gloves floats way too much and does not get strikes called. Talk about the draft, they had the lowest graded draft from more than 1 source, another example of a organization in the wrong direction with who is running the show.
Pratto is just maddening. I can see it--offensively and (especially) defensively--but for the love of Mark Quinn, swing the FREAKING bat!
Interestingly enough, I don't think the Royals had had a "golden sombrero" all season--and then Pratto earned three of them in a 16-day stretch. Hope he's got extra room on his trophy shelf...
The one thing I'll say about that if you're looking for something, anything, to hang your golden sombrero on is that I'd rather a hitter be too patient than too aggressive. It's a whole lot easier to get guys to swing more than it is to get them to swing less.
That's very true, but it's a fine line between patience and timidity.
Of course, that's easy for me to say, because I'm a fat old dude typing at a keyboard. I'd have to be patient at the plate because I likely wouldn't even be able to SEE the pitches coming!
Good summary. Outside of pitching, MJ definitely the biggest conundrum to me. As for pitching, wouldn't hate it if they just reset w/ an entirely new staff across the board over the next season and a half. Also, this made me remember bumping into someone connected to Royals earlier this year in the few days between spring training and regular season. I said you guys had a great spring. They said, yeah but it's just spring, doesn't really mean anything [about how the team would perform in regular season]. In retrospect, possibly the most true statement ever.
If they turned over the whole pitching staff, I wouldn't complain. Probably will, though maybe not in that quick of a timeline, but also I wonder a bit if they don't try to get some cost control out of Hernandez. If he steps into the closer role, his arbitration numbers could rise pretty quickly because of saves.
Agreed with all. I think one of the things we are going to learn as well is a little more about the front office. I’m tending to believe they will be transactional again…and it probably look a lot like last year. Which is good, but maybe not more than reliever pieces back based on what they have. But will scouts get replaced after players sign? Multiple people will probably have to fall on the sword with this one. You can’t go from 97 to 110 in losses without that happening even if you try to temper expectations. What happens in October will be just as important as the whole offseason signings.
What really stinks about some performances is that there just isn't a whole lot to deal right now. Your best trade chips are Garcia and Witt. I suppose you can trade them, but I would also argue that if you do, now isn't the best time. They'd get more in the offseason and I don't think they're going to. MJ can't be dealt. Pratto probably can't be dealt right now. Salvy has never had the value some think he does. Singer likely can't be dealt. If Olivares comes back before the deadline or maybe even just shows he should be able to come back by mid-August even, I think he's gone. And I think Lopez probably gets moved too.
I'll have some more tomorrow on second half goals for this team that'll get into some other stuff too. But yeah, I do wonder what the personnel off the field will look like after the season. I had kind of forgotten about this, but someone told me late in the winter that they were sure more moves would come after 2023. I think things just got so bad and the season has felt so long that I was thinking that conversation happened years ago, but it was pretty recent, so we'll see.
I don't know whether this actually makes sense when you dive into the numbers, but after a half year of watching baseball under the new rules, I'm semi-convinced that teams should just follow the mid-80s Cardinals model and prioritize pure speed for position players. OBP and speed ... every walk turns into either a double or triple for someone like BWJ. Who cares about hard hit balls (except to extent they translate to OBP). Just get on base by any means necessary and run, run, run. Field a team of BWJ, Garcia, and 4 other Vince Coleman prototypes (plus Pasquatch and a catcher). As for pitching, just load up on every young arm you can find and hope a few of them turn into real MLB starters. Call it all the 2025 project.
The problem with that is prioritizing speed often means players who aren't able to actually make good contact, which is so important with elite pitching. Some of those guys from the 80s would get absolutely destroyed today with the caliber of pitcher they're facing in almost every at bat.
I think the Royals need to develop more organizational depth before they start wheeling and dealing...or deal to develop that organizational depth....its still gone take some time to develop the conveyer belt of prospects they need to thrive... that takes minor league investment. Would be interesting to see the minor league spending by organization...which is not covered by the salary cap I believe...
My only comment is Carlos Hernadez needs to get it top physical shape so he can start...we need 225 innings out of him every year as a starter....not 80 as a reliever...
This team has finally emerged out of the denile that started with the death of Yordan...RIP.
I've said this a lot, but Hernandez isn't in the bullpen because they don't think he's physically able to start. It's about the time between starts that he doesn't do well with. Maybe that changes, but I'm not sure they're going to mess with it any time soon. Also, 225 innings is aggressive for anyone in baseball today. There have been 10 instances of a pitcher going 225 innings. That's gone the way of the dodo.
Granted you actually have to get on base first, but base running and steals can be a high point for this season. This team has so much potential for speed on the base path, but need to be aggressive a bit more and Garcia needs to stop sliding past the base.
Ohh... and on Pratto and his patience...I think with a few adjustments he can dial in his inner Bobby Abreau or even David Eckstien and develop into a guy who can hit...as well as make pitchers throw 10 pictch at bats to him!
David, thanks for the continued effort and insight during a year that (at least so far), has probably been a beating to write about. But for those of us masochistic enough to continue watching and hoping, your content is always a great read.
I like your analysis and disagree with only 2 things:
1) Lynch is due for some big time regression. Big time might be a little strong. That K rate simply doesn't work and his BABIP and HR/FB% are both going to increase. I expect him to finish with an ERA above 4.5. Still playable as a 4 or 5 starter, but not a game changer. I really like the low BB rate, but pitch to contact guys are extremely volatile.
2) I don't think the Royals should promote relievers, or any pitchers, who can't throw strikes. That's exactly what the minors are for, let them continue to refine control. This org needs to stand behind their 'raid the zone' slogan and let it be known that you don't progress if you don't throw strikes. If you have to nibble in AAA or can't consistently throw strikes, there's no need for a major league audition...you don't belong.
This whole article is entirely accurate unfortunately. My take on it is that we are a long way away from contention, even if we hit on 50% of the 'what if' scenarios. As Royals fans we are well trained to focus on the what if scenarios though...
As it currently stands in the organization, it's not next year and probably not 2025. But things can certainly change fast. I honestly really do like what they're doing with pitching development now and I'll be curious to see how that translates.
Say what you want a lot of this boils down to good management and coaching. They are inconsistent at everything both pitching and hitting. You are not going to get quality play and hitting until you get a consistent line up and build continuity. Need to decide a a permanent 2nd baseman, what are they going to do with Pratto when P returns next year, their isn’t much difference in their bats, Pratto needs to be better prepared with 2 strikes, Melendez’s problem is all in his hips, he drops them and bails out on too many pitches swinging or looking, he’s not an outfielder unless someone will aggressively work with him. Think of the money they have wasted on Greinke for 2 years, Bradley Jr. and Reyes were a waste of time money and effort. Glad Garrett is gone, hopefully Cuas and Isbel are next. There is nothing wrong with the young talent on this team, it just needs developed properly, staff changes this year didn’t help and need to be evaluated again, you can say they haven’t had enough time but they aren’t even making slight or game time adjustments. Never seen so many infielders out of position on ground balls. Pitchers hitting the spot, where the catchers glove is and getting hammered, Fermin gloves floats way too much and does not get strikes called. Talk about the draft, they had the lowest graded draft from more than 1 source, another example of a organization in the wrong direction with who is running the show.
Pratto is just maddening. I can see it--offensively and (especially) defensively--but for the love of Mark Quinn, swing the FREAKING bat!
Interestingly enough, I don't think the Royals had had a "golden sombrero" all season--and then Pratto earned three of them in a 16-day stretch. Hope he's got extra room on his trophy shelf...
The one thing I'll say about that if you're looking for something, anything, to hang your golden sombrero on is that I'd rather a hitter be too patient than too aggressive. It's a whole lot easier to get guys to swing more than it is to get them to swing less.
That's very true, but it's a fine line between patience and timidity.
Of course, that's easy for me to say, because I'm a fat old dude typing at a keyboard. I'd have to be patient at the plate because I likely wouldn't even be able to SEE the pitches coming!
Oh absolutely. But even so, swing more is easier than swing less. At least theoretically.
You are showing good speed on the keyboard this morning!
Good summary. Outside of pitching, MJ definitely the biggest conundrum to me. As for pitching, wouldn't hate it if they just reset w/ an entirely new staff across the board over the next season and a half. Also, this made me remember bumping into someone connected to Royals earlier this year in the few days between spring training and regular season. I said you guys had a great spring. They said, yeah but it's just spring, doesn't really mean anything [about how the team would perform in regular season]. In retrospect, possibly the most true statement ever.
If they turned over the whole pitching staff, I wouldn't complain. Probably will, though maybe not in that quick of a timeline, but also I wonder a bit if they don't try to get some cost control out of Hernandez. If he steps into the closer role, his arbitration numbers could rise pretty quickly because of saves.
Right ... good point re Hernandez.
Agreed with all. I think one of the things we are going to learn as well is a little more about the front office. I’m tending to believe they will be transactional again…and it probably look a lot like last year. Which is good, but maybe not more than reliever pieces back based on what they have. But will scouts get replaced after players sign? Multiple people will probably have to fall on the sword with this one. You can’t go from 97 to 110 in losses without that happening even if you try to temper expectations. What happens in October will be just as important as the whole offseason signings.
What really stinks about some performances is that there just isn't a whole lot to deal right now. Your best trade chips are Garcia and Witt. I suppose you can trade them, but I would also argue that if you do, now isn't the best time. They'd get more in the offseason and I don't think they're going to. MJ can't be dealt. Pratto probably can't be dealt right now. Salvy has never had the value some think he does. Singer likely can't be dealt. If Olivares comes back before the deadline or maybe even just shows he should be able to come back by mid-August even, I think he's gone. And I think Lopez probably gets moved too.
I'll have some more tomorrow on second half goals for this team that'll get into some other stuff too. But yeah, I do wonder what the personnel off the field will look like after the season. I had kind of forgotten about this, but someone told me late in the winter that they were sure more moves would come after 2023. I think things just got so bad and the season has felt so long that I was thinking that conversation happened years ago, but it was pretty recent, so we'll see.
I don't know whether this actually makes sense when you dive into the numbers, but after a half year of watching baseball under the new rules, I'm semi-convinced that teams should just follow the mid-80s Cardinals model and prioritize pure speed for position players. OBP and speed ... every walk turns into either a double or triple for someone like BWJ. Who cares about hard hit balls (except to extent they translate to OBP). Just get on base by any means necessary and run, run, run. Field a team of BWJ, Garcia, and 4 other Vince Coleman prototypes (plus Pasquatch and a catcher). As for pitching, just load up on every young arm you can find and hope a few of them turn into real MLB starters. Call it all the 2025 project.
The problem with that is prioritizing speed often means players who aren't able to actually make good contact, which is so important with elite pitching. Some of those guys from the 80s would get absolutely destroyed today with the caliber of pitcher they're facing in almost every at bat.
I think the Royals need to develop more organizational depth before they start wheeling and dealing...or deal to develop that organizational depth....its still gone take some time to develop the conveyer belt of prospects they need to thrive... that takes minor league investment. Would be interesting to see the minor league spending by organization...which is not covered by the salary cap I believe...
...
Well said.
My only comment is Carlos Hernadez needs to get it top physical shape so he can start...we need 225 innings out of him every year as a starter....not 80 as a reliever...
This team has finally emerged out of the denile that started with the death of Yordan...RIP.
I've said this a lot, but Hernandez isn't in the bullpen because they don't think he's physically able to start. It's about the time between starts that he doesn't do well with. Maybe that changes, but I'm not sure they're going to mess with it any time soon. Also, 225 innings is aggressive for anyone in baseball today. There have been 10 instances of a pitcher going 225 innings. That's gone the way of the dodo.
Then 200? The guys gotta get fit first! Then i think he will be able to start....
He could be an adonis and the issue would still be the same for him.
David, thank you for your thorough and agonizingly truthful assessment.
Taking a couple of days off makes even the saddest newsletters not so bad to write!
Granted you actually have to get on base first, but base running and steals can be a high point for this season. This team has so much potential for speed on the base path, but need to be aggressive a bit more and Garcia needs to stop sliding past the base.
Ohh... and on Pratto and his patience...I think with a few adjustments he can dial in his inner Bobby Abreau or even David Eckstien and develop into a guy who can hit...as well as make pitchers throw 10 pictch at bats to him!
Well done, David.
Thank you. Hoping the Royals' owner reads this. Maybe it will help along...
David, thanks for the continued effort and insight during a year that (at least so far), has probably been a beating to write about. But for those of us masochistic enough to continue watching and hoping, your content is always a great read.
FYI
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/the-most-alarming-aspect-of-royals-disappointing-season.html
Great article, thank you!
I like your analysis and disagree with only 2 things:
1) Lynch is due for some big time regression. Big time might be a little strong. That K rate simply doesn't work and his BABIP and HR/FB% are both going to increase. I expect him to finish with an ERA above 4.5. Still playable as a 4 or 5 starter, but not a game changer. I really like the low BB rate, but pitch to contact guys are extremely volatile.
2) I don't think the Royals should promote relievers, or any pitchers, who can't throw strikes. That's exactly what the minors are for, let them continue to refine control. This org needs to stand behind their 'raid the zone' slogan and let it be known that you don't progress if you don't throw strikes. If you have to nibble in AAA or can't consistently throw strikes, there's no need for a major league audition...you don't belong.