Nice wrap. Witt has had a couple of iffy plays defensively recently. Curious what the overall defensive metrics say about him at SS. Probably a terrible comparison, but my vague, non-google refreshed, recollection is that the sophisticated metrics hated Jeter bc he didn't get to balls other SS did, but he always made the fundamental play. Witt seems like the other end of the spectrum. But that's just subjective / recency bias speaking.
He's made a couple of errors recently that he hadn't made for awhile. I'll be interested to see if that continues as we get into some dog days, which seem to come earlier on a team going nowhere. The metrics are sort of all over the place on him. He's at -5 defensive runs saved, which ranks near the bottom of qualified shortstops. But he's +6 outs above average, which ranks fifth. And Fangraphs has a defensive metric that pegs him as sixth-best. The eye test is much better for him up until the last handful of games, but it'll be interesting to watch as the season goes on.
My opinion, going beyond just Witt, is that Garcia is SO good at third base and Witt has been above average (in my opinion) at shortstop that I kind of think leaving them where they are makes sense if they're both going to be a part of this team long-term. But the second half of the year could change that thought too.
Yes, that was an impressive outing by Singer. He's going to need a whole lot more of those, and a whole lot fewer of the bad ones, before I get back to believing in him even a little bit.
Absolutely. He earned the benefit of the doubt with his season last year and then he lost it with how he's pitched this season. It looks like he'll go Dodgers and then Guardians again before the break. I would assume it'll be Rays, Tigers and then Guardians again before the deadline, so that's a bit of a test to see a couple of really good offenses and then an offense multiple times along with a Tigers team that has hit him this year. I feel like if he can get through those five and look good, I'll probably be a lot rosier on him moving forward, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're back incredibly frustrated with him in five days.
Boy, the social medias all be blowin' up about how horrible Scott Barlow is and how he should be DFA and not even traded. I just have to chuckle and move about my day (with a snarky reply or two mixed in, of course).
People are still SOOO invested in the day-to-day results that they completely overlooked how well Singer pitched last night, even if only using two pitches. They also overlooked the fact that the Royals' offense managed two stinkin' hits. They're all worried about a dude who isn't even going to be here in about five minutes. It's in equal parts hilarious and infuriating.
Yeah, the reactions are kind of crazy. I saw someone freaking out in every thread I saw that they used Chapman in the eighth and Barlow in the ninth. Okay? He faced the top of the lineup, which is their strongest third. Anyway, yeah, people are fun.
I wonder a bit if they know they are moving Barlow so they are purposely not overusing him. Now, it could be hurting results…so it’s a double edged sword. I wonder if they are just wanting to get him to the deadline healthy more than anything else at this point in the year.
On Singer. Where the Royals are at now, he’s a trade candidate if he can get it figured back out. More so than where they are at….if you have a guy that is so stubborn he won’t do what is necessary (or what appears on the outside anyway) to make adjustments. I’m thinking any third pitch here……If you have a guy like that doesn’t he become a trade candidate just because of that refusal? I’m not sure I’m making my point here but that’s ok. It’s been 5 years now. He doesn’t appear to be making the adjustments. It worked last year….it didn’t really any of the other years. I guess what I’m saying is when he figures it out. Doesn’t he need to be on the block?
First, I'd argue it worked for Singer in 2020 also, though short season and smaller sample. But trading him is really tricky. On one hand, yes, he isn't doing what you want from him, so absolutely move the guy if there's a deal. On the other hand, aren't teams going to lowball you because of how he's pitched? I think he'll have probably five starts before the deadline. If he looks like 2022 Singer, sure, make that trade, but I just wonder what the offers are and if they're just not worth it. He has three years of control after this season. Offers don't generally drop a ton when you go from three years and two months to three years or even two years and two months, so it's not like they're losing value on him and it gives them an opportunity to try get his trade value boosted.
Yes absolutely. You don’t HAVE to move him this trading deadline. I’m speaking more in general terms if it is in the offseason or next deadline. I just mean, I don’t know if I would want to resign him now, if he regains some form you still have a pitcher with basically a two pitch mix that won’t make the adjustments to get better that have been asked. Yes, other teams are also going to realize this. He’s just very frustrating seeing someone with that talent not continuing to evolve….while you have Grienke in the clubhouse constantly evolving to be doing this for 20 years.
As it stands right now, I wouldn't do more than year-to-year with him for sure. Things can change. I actually think a splitter would be great for him given his movement profile. Maybe it's a different third pitch that resonates better than a changeup and that changes everything for him. But yeah, he's not a long-term guy if he refuses to actually try to do something he needs to do to help him be better.
I just want to get to the point that ANYONE with a 6 era at the end of June is kicked out of the rotation because he isn’t performing. We are a few years away from that….but competition breeds performance and innovation. This team just doesn’t have that competition from the pitching staff yet to force anyone out. Maybe he would develop a splitter then, IDK. He pitched well yesterday so should be happy with it.
I think they're awfully close to having the competition to force him (or anyone else like that) out. Brad Keller is starting a rehab assignment today at AAA and Zerpa was moved to AAA for his rehab too. So that means they're looking at:
Greinke
Lyles
Singer
Lynch
Cox
Keller
Yarbrough
Marsh
Veneziano
Bowlan
Castillo
Zerpa
Greinke, Lyles, Keller and Yarbrough certainly don't matter for the future, but even without them, that's eight options that I think are all theoretically options either now or soon. I wrote about it a couple weeks ago and maybe the quality doesn't end up being there, but they're not without quantity anymore at least.
Maybe I’m just imagining this and it’s not really a thing. I think what I’d like to hear more from this group as a whole is not let’s see what Bowlan for example can do. I want to hear, “this is a chance for Bowlan to TAKE a spot. I’d like to hear it from Q, the front office. And maybe they do more than I realize. Cox, he is taking a spot right now. I’d rather see him go tonight than watch some of these other guys flounder. That doesn’t mean you throw negative light on the other guys. Get them fixed if you can. But I want to hear more about guys getting the chance to take a spot.
This could totally be just a losing team thing, listening to the podcasts and what what not. So could not even be a real thing. I’m willing to admit that. But would love that mentality more with this group.
At what point do the Royals acknowledge that Witt Jr is not a good MLB shortstop , but could be a good third baseman. Flip him & Garcia. Understand that Jr wants to play SS but at some point you have to do what’s best for the team
He rates excellently by OAA and Fangraphs defensive metric. I think he’s been good there this year. And Garcia has been GREAT at third. It’s been an excellent combo in this iteration.
I agree, I just don't see Jr as a long term SS. I do think he is a good SS but I liked him better at 3rd. But then I really don't see him as a lead off hitter either but we use him all the time to lead off.
One notable thing regarding Singer that I don’t hear people talking about is his diminished velocity. I looked back at his great start against the Yankees last season on 7/28/22 and his sinker averaged 95.1 with a max of 97.2 mph. This year he’s averaging 92.3. For the year his avg FB velocity is down 1.5 mph. Being a two pitch guy his margin for error is already slim, and I think the diminished FB velocity is exasperating that. I’ve also noticed that Lynch’s FB velo is down 1.1 mph this year although it seems he’s commanding it a little better lately. Any thoughts on the velo dips.
I think it was talked about a lot earlier in the year and, at this point, it's just kind of beating a dead horse. I think there are a handful of possible reasons. It is interesting that his perceived velocity was 94.6 MPH last year and 93.8 MPH this year, which isn't nearly as big of a gap and comes from his extension increasing so he releases the ball closer to the plate.
The other possibility, and I'm about to put an edit in the newsletter above, is that the Royals are claiming he's throwing a split-change now, which has sinker-like qualities (and I support that), so a lot of those, which are not thrown as hard, are registering as sinkers to bring the average velocity down. That doesn't explain the maximum velocity decrease, but it is interesting at least.
Interesting, not sure if I buy that or not at the moment. I’ll have to pay attention his next start. I guess, off the top…..If he is throwing a split change now, he’s not getting the velocity difference or the ball isn’t moving in a much different way. Cause I can’t recall seeing a pitch yesterday where I thought “that’s new”. But I’m not going to sit here and say I saw every pitch either.
Can he please just call up Gausman. Have a conversation with him on the splitter please.
Nice wrap. Witt has had a couple of iffy plays defensively recently. Curious what the overall defensive metrics say about him at SS. Probably a terrible comparison, but my vague, non-google refreshed, recollection is that the sophisticated metrics hated Jeter bc he didn't get to balls other SS did, but he always made the fundamental play. Witt seems like the other end of the spectrum. But that's just subjective / recency bias speaking.
He's made a couple of errors recently that he hadn't made for awhile. I'll be interested to see if that continues as we get into some dog days, which seem to come earlier on a team going nowhere. The metrics are sort of all over the place on him. He's at -5 defensive runs saved, which ranks near the bottom of qualified shortstops. But he's +6 outs above average, which ranks fifth. And Fangraphs has a defensive metric that pegs him as sixth-best. The eye test is much better for him up until the last handful of games, but it'll be interesting to watch as the season goes on.
My opinion, going beyond just Witt, is that Garcia is SO good at third base and Witt has been above average (in my opinion) at shortstop that I kind of think leaving them where they are makes sense if they're both going to be a part of this team long-term. But the second half of the year could change that thought too.
Yes, that was an impressive outing by Singer. He's going to need a whole lot more of those, and a whole lot fewer of the bad ones, before I get back to believing in him even a little bit.
Absolutely. He earned the benefit of the doubt with his season last year and then he lost it with how he's pitched this season. It looks like he'll go Dodgers and then Guardians again before the break. I would assume it'll be Rays, Tigers and then Guardians again before the deadline, so that's a bit of a test to see a couple of really good offenses and then an offense multiple times along with a Tigers team that has hit him this year. I feel like if he can get through those five and look good, I'll probably be a lot rosier on him moving forward, but I wouldn't be surprised if we're back incredibly frustrated with him in five days.
Boy, the social medias all be blowin' up about how horrible Scott Barlow is and how he should be DFA and not even traded. I just have to chuckle and move about my day (with a snarky reply or two mixed in, of course).
People are still SOOO invested in the day-to-day results that they completely overlooked how well Singer pitched last night, even if only using two pitches. They also overlooked the fact that the Royals' offense managed two stinkin' hits. They're all worried about a dude who isn't even going to be here in about five minutes. It's in equal parts hilarious and infuriating.
Yeah, the reactions are kind of crazy. I saw someone freaking out in every thread I saw that they used Chapman in the eighth and Barlow in the ninth. Okay? He faced the top of the lineup, which is their strongest third. Anyway, yeah, people are fun.
I wonder a bit if they know they are moving Barlow so they are purposely not overusing him. Now, it could be hurting results…so it’s a double edged sword. I wonder if they are just wanting to get him to the deadline healthy more than anything else at this point in the year.
On Singer. Where the Royals are at now, he’s a trade candidate if he can get it figured back out. More so than where they are at….if you have a guy that is so stubborn he won’t do what is necessary (or what appears on the outside anyway) to make adjustments. I’m thinking any third pitch here……If you have a guy like that doesn’t he become a trade candidate just because of that refusal? I’m not sure I’m making my point here but that’s ok. It’s been 5 years now. He doesn’t appear to be making the adjustments. It worked last year….it didn’t really any of the other years. I guess what I’m saying is when he figures it out. Doesn’t he need to be on the block?
First, I'd argue it worked for Singer in 2020 also, though short season and smaller sample. But trading him is really tricky. On one hand, yes, he isn't doing what you want from him, so absolutely move the guy if there's a deal. On the other hand, aren't teams going to lowball you because of how he's pitched? I think he'll have probably five starts before the deadline. If he looks like 2022 Singer, sure, make that trade, but I just wonder what the offers are and if they're just not worth it. He has three years of control after this season. Offers don't generally drop a ton when you go from three years and two months to three years or even two years and two months, so it's not like they're losing value on him and it gives them an opportunity to try get his trade value boosted.
Yes absolutely. You don’t HAVE to move him this trading deadline. I’m speaking more in general terms if it is in the offseason or next deadline. I just mean, I don’t know if I would want to resign him now, if he regains some form you still have a pitcher with basically a two pitch mix that won’t make the adjustments to get better that have been asked. Yes, other teams are also going to realize this. He’s just very frustrating seeing someone with that talent not continuing to evolve….while you have Grienke in the clubhouse constantly evolving to be doing this for 20 years.
As it stands right now, I wouldn't do more than year-to-year with him for sure. Things can change. I actually think a splitter would be great for him given his movement profile. Maybe it's a different third pitch that resonates better than a changeup and that changes everything for him. But yeah, he's not a long-term guy if he refuses to actually try to do something he needs to do to help him be better.
I just want to get to the point that ANYONE with a 6 era at the end of June is kicked out of the rotation because he isn’t performing. We are a few years away from that….but competition breeds performance and innovation. This team just doesn’t have that competition from the pitching staff yet to force anyone out. Maybe he would develop a splitter then, IDK. He pitched well yesterday so should be happy with it.
I think they're awfully close to having the competition to force him (or anyone else like that) out. Brad Keller is starting a rehab assignment today at AAA and Zerpa was moved to AAA for his rehab too. So that means they're looking at:
Greinke
Lyles
Singer
Lynch
Cox
Keller
Yarbrough
Marsh
Veneziano
Bowlan
Castillo
Zerpa
Greinke, Lyles, Keller and Yarbrough certainly don't matter for the future, but even without them, that's eight options that I think are all theoretically options either now or soon. I wrote about it a couple weeks ago and maybe the quality doesn't end up being there, but they're not without quantity anymore at least.
Maybe I’m just imagining this and it’s not really a thing. I think what I’d like to hear more from this group as a whole is not let’s see what Bowlan for example can do. I want to hear, “this is a chance for Bowlan to TAKE a spot. I’d like to hear it from Q, the front office. And maybe they do more than I realize. Cox, he is taking a spot right now. I’d rather see him go tonight than watch some of these other guys flounder. That doesn’t mean you throw negative light on the other guys. Get them fixed if you can. But I want to hear more about guys getting the chance to take a spot.
This could totally be just a losing team thing, listening to the podcasts and what what not. So could not even be a real thing. I’m willing to admit that. But would love that mentality more with this group.
At what point do the Royals acknowledge that Witt Jr is not a good MLB shortstop , but could be a good third baseman. Flip him & Garcia. Understand that Jr wants to play SS but at some point you have to do what’s best for the team
He rates excellently by OAA and Fangraphs defensive metric. I think he’s been good there this year. And Garcia has been GREAT at third. It’s been an excellent combo in this iteration.
I agree, I just don't see Jr as a long term SS. I do think he is a good SS but I liked him better at 3rd. But then I really don't see him as a lead off hitter either but we use him all the time to lead off.
One notable thing regarding Singer that I don’t hear people talking about is his diminished velocity. I looked back at his great start against the Yankees last season on 7/28/22 and his sinker averaged 95.1 with a max of 97.2 mph. This year he’s averaging 92.3. For the year his avg FB velocity is down 1.5 mph. Being a two pitch guy his margin for error is already slim, and I think the diminished FB velocity is exasperating that. I’ve also noticed that Lynch’s FB velo is down 1.1 mph this year although it seems he’s commanding it a little better lately. Any thoughts on the velo dips.
I think it was talked about a lot earlier in the year and, at this point, it's just kind of beating a dead horse. I think there are a handful of possible reasons. It is interesting that his perceived velocity was 94.6 MPH last year and 93.8 MPH this year, which isn't nearly as big of a gap and comes from his extension increasing so he releases the ball closer to the plate.
The other possibility, and I'm about to put an edit in the newsletter above, is that the Royals are claiming he's throwing a split-change now, which has sinker-like qualities (and I support that), so a lot of those, which are not thrown as hard, are registering as sinkers to bring the average velocity down. That doesn't explain the maximum velocity decrease, but it is interesting at least.
Interesting, not sure if I buy that or not at the moment. I’ll have to pay attention his next start. I guess, off the top…..If he is throwing a split change now, he’s not getting the velocity difference or the ball isn’t moving in a much different way. Cause I can’t recall seeing a pitch yesterday where I thought “that’s new”. But I’m not going to sit here and say I saw every pitch either.
Can he please just call up Gausman. Have a conversation with him on the splitter please.
Yeah I’m skeptical myself but I’m willing to keep an open mind.