David, I'm not sure how you can manage to keep finding interesting and HIGHLY informative stuff to write about such a brutally uninspiring team. But however you do it, kudos! It's obviously much more than I could ever manage to do.
Or as Romeo Crenell once infamously said, "kuh-DOOZ to you."
Ha, I mean it's still baseball. Even bad baseball is baseball and bad baseball is better than no baseball. But it goes back to the fact that there's *always* something to take away from a game, a week, a season.
1) They definitely need to get more production from Reyes if he's going to be a part of this team moving forward. Not that anyone expected all that much from him after Cleveland gave up on him.
2) I have no data to back this up but my eye test tells me that Salvy is chasing unhittable pitches quite a bit more than usual this year. That's fine when it works but it's definitely very not fine when it doesn't. It seems to me that he's pressing and trying to hit nine-run HR's pretty consistently.
Yeah, I'm not sure Reyes is going to make it a whole lot longer if they don't start seeing more swings like that sacrifice fly. At some point, they absolutely have to give Logan Porter a shot and there isn't room on the roster for him and Reyes.
By the numbers, Salvy is chasing a bit more than last year, but within the margin. His chase rates by year:
2015 - 41.7%
2016 - 42.6%
2017 - 46.0%
2018 - 44.2%
2020 - 43.5%
2021 - 44.7%
2022 - 43.2%
2023 - 44.6%
This is who he is and has always been. The concern is if the bat speed is diminishing because he makes up for a lot of flaws with swinging really hard and making things happen on a lot of those pitches he chases.
One of the flaws in the "Chase rate" stat is that it counts a swing at a pitch 1 inch outside of the zone the same as it counts a swing at an unhittable pitch 18 inches out of the zone. I know of no way to correct for that but it's obvious that that one number by itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Here's his chase rate on pitches outside the shadow zone, so that means they're pitches that nobody should be swinging at (though pitchers are REALLY good and do get chases):
That's very helpful to know so thank you! But those Chase rates stats completely lack context: what's the score? What inning is it? Are there runners on base? Maybe the pitcher is having a terrible inning and so the batter understandably wants to get a shot at him before the pitcher is removed from the game. Maybe he's pitching a great game and so the batter wants to swing at anything that appears the least bit hittable, which is probably not a great idea but is at least somewhat excusable.
None of those variables are included in the chase rate numbers.
That's mostly because the more variables you include, the smaller and less impactful the sample is. For example, when Salvy bats with the chance to tie the game or take the lead, his chase rate this year is 3.4 percent lower than in 2020 and generally in line with previous years.
What you're saying about the less impactful sample is absolutely true! Another problem, of course, is that multiple variables tend to vary and interact with one another. Once you get past a certain degree of complexity even the most advanced math techniques can't come up with a definitive number that explains much of anything.
I do think it is interesting that the Diamondbacks and the Royals essentially started at the same spot. The Diamondback are everything I was hoping the Royals would be this year. Singer/Gallen….Corbin/Witt, a lot of young pieces on both sides…but somehow the D’s are the young fun team and the Royals are just sore on the eyes to watch. A lot of it is the Diamondbacks seem to play good defense and have pieces that compliment each other. And I’m sure some of it is I’m only seeing the Diamondbacks once in a while compared to the Royals much more often.
The Diamondbacks have always been a little weird to me. They won 85 games in 2019 with a few of the pieces they have today. Then went 25-35 in 2020 and lost 110 games in 2021. How were they that bad? I don't know. I do think a lot of it is seeing the Diamondbacks only occasionally but they're a well put together team that has the big disadvantage of their division.
Dang, David, I love the way you analyze these guys. Thank you so much. A game like this gives me some hope for the season and as they say, a win is a win...
Well it was great to get a win, even if they didn't let us enjoy it until the very end. I'm starting to see how Bobby's defense seems to be so polarizing, at least in my opinion. His error last night could be seen one way by those who see the athleticism, range, and upside, and through a totally different lens if you are skeptical of him being a SS. For "upside" fans it was an incredible play on a ball not many SS probably get to with an unfortunate throw trying to make the hero play. We can tell ourselves we love his effort and talent and that he's only 22 and will learn when to put those in his pocket. For the skeptic, it was a nice play (but maybe one they expect most SS to get to), followed by a wild and unwise throw that had no chance of a good outcome, and a bone-headed decision under the game circumstances. I'm more on the optimistic side but I can see how a Royal fan could see that play two different ways depending on their assumptions about his defense going into it. With the caveat that we all agree they seem to be giving him the year at Short to figure it out, do you land more on either of these perspectives, David? Or somewhere else?
I find myself encouraged by what he's done defensively so far. He seems to be getting to more balls and the routine play hasn't eluded him like it did last season. I don't think you'd expect most shortstops to get to the one he got to yesterday. That's a mental error in making that throw. Mental errors need to be addressed, yes, but the talent is pretty clearly there. My gut is that when the Royals do decide to put their best infield defense out there, Witt isn't at shortstop, but I'm enjoying watching his development there.
Watched this game wire to wire. More than ever I’m convinced our schedule truly messed with us. Seeing Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson and suddenly our offense looks more than competent but seeing Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, deGrom, Eovaldi, Morton, etc and we look like Little Leaguers. As I’ve said before you gotta play who is in front of you but I think we are much closer to middle of the pack than bottom feeder than our record suggests.
They're 2-14 against teams that are more than a game over .500 and 4-4 against the rest, so that does check out. I will continue to say that we'll have a much better idea of what they are after May.
David, I'm not sure how you can manage to keep finding interesting and HIGHLY informative stuff to write about such a brutally uninspiring team. But however you do it, kudos! It's obviously much more than I could ever manage to do.
Or as Romeo Crenell once infamously said, "kuh-DOOZ to you."
Ha, I mean it's still baseball. Even bad baseball is baseball and bad baseball is better than no baseball. But it goes back to the fact that there's *always* something to take away from a game, a week, a season.
Absolutely! I agree. Always something to observe in baseball and to think about.
A couple of observations...
1) They definitely need to get more production from Reyes if he's going to be a part of this team moving forward. Not that anyone expected all that much from him after Cleveland gave up on him.
2) I have no data to back this up but my eye test tells me that Salvy is chasing unhittable pitches quite a bit more than usual this year. That's fine when it works but it's definitely very not fine when it doesn't. It seems to me that he's pressing and trying to hit nine-run HR's pretty consistently.
Yeah, I'm not sure Reyes is going to make it a whole lot longer if they don't start seeing more swings like that sacrifice fly. At some point, they absolutely have to give Logan Porter a shot and there isn't room on the roster for him and Reyes.
By the numbers, Salvy is chasing a bit more than last year, but within the margin. His chase rates by year:
2015 - 41.7%
2016 - 42.6%
2017 - 46.0%
2018 - 44.2%
2020 - 43.5%
2021 - 44.7%
2022 - 43.2%
2023 - 44.6%
This is who he is and has always been. The concern is if the bat speed is diminishing because he makes up for a lot of flaws with swinging really hard and making things happen on a lot of those pitches he chases.
One of the flaws in the "Chase rate" stat is that it counts a swing at a pitch 1 inch outside of the zone the same as it counts a swing at an unhittable pitch 18 inches out of the zone. I know of no way to correct for that but it's obvious that that one number by itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Here's his chase rate on pitches outside the shadow zone, so that means they're pitches that nobody should be swinging at (though pitchers are REALLY good and do get chases):
2015 - 31.7%
2016 - 31.7%
2017 - 36.3%
2018 - 33.6%
2020 - 32.1%
2021 - 33.4%
2022 - 31.7%
2023 - 32.2%
So same story.
That's very helpful to know so thank you! But those Chase rates stats completely lack context: what's the score? What inning is it? Are there runners on base? Maybe the pitcher is having a terrible inning and so the batter understandably wants to get a shot at him before the pitcher is removed from the game. Maybe he's pitching a great game and so the batter wants to swing at anything that appears the least bit hittable, which is probably not a great idea but is at least somewhat excusable.
None of those variables are included in the chase rate numbers.
That's mostly because the more variables you include, the smaller and less impactful the sample is. For example, when Salvy bats with the chance to tie the game or take the lead, his chase rate this year is 3.4 percent lower than in 2020 and generally in line with previous years.
What you're saying about the less impactful sample is absolutely true! Another problem, of course, is that multiple variables tend to vary and interact with one another. Once you get past a certain degree of complexity even the most advanced math techniques can't come up with a definitive number that explains much of anything.
What are the chances we can trade for Corbin Carroll?
Good win, glad to see Singer back in better form. That is desperately needed.
Hmm...I think if they kidnapped him or something they might be able to get him.
I do think it is interesting that the Diamondbacks and the Royals essentially started at the same spot. The Diamondback are everything I was hoping the Royals would be this year. Singer/Gallen….Corbin/Witt, a lot of young pieces on both sides…but somehow the D’s are the young fun team and the Royals are just sore on the eyes to watch. A lot of it is the Diamondbacks seem to play good defense and have pieces that compliment each other. And I’m sure some of it is I’m only seeing the Diamondbacks once in a while compared to the Royals much more often.
The Diamondbacks have always been a little weird to me. They won 85 games in 2019 with a few of the pieces they have today. Then went 25-35 in 2020 and lost 110 games in 2021. How were they that bad? I don't know. I do think a lot of it is seeing the Diamondbacks only occasionally but they're a well put together team that has the big disadvantage of their division.
Dang, David, I love the way you analyze these guys. Thank you so much. A game like this gives me some hope for the season and as they say, a win is a win...
Thanks so much, Mark! I really appreciate that!
Really hoping they acquire Konnor Pilkington today... he could be a nice fit in the rotation with the issues KC has had.
I *just* saw he was DFA'd and had the same thought. They could use him.
Well it was great to get a win, even if they didn't let us enjoy it until the very end. I'm starting to see how Bobby's defense seems to be so polarizing, at least in my opinion. His error last night could be seen one way by those who see the athleticism, range, and upside, and through a totally different lens if you are skeptical of him being a SS. For "upside" fans it was an incredible play on a ball not many SS probably get to with an unfortunate throw trying to make the hero play. We can tell ourselves we love his effort and talent and that he's only 22 and will learn when to put those in his pocket. For the skeptic, it was a nice play (but maybe one they expect most SS to get to), followed by a wild and unwise throw that had no chance of a good outcome, and a bone-headed decision under the game circumstances. I'm more on the optimistic side but I can see how a Royal fan could see that play two different ways depending on their assumptions about his defense going into it. With the caveat that we all agree they seem to be giving him the year at Short to figure it out, do you land more on either of these perspectives, David? Or somewhere else?
I find myself encouraged by what he's done defensively so far. He seems to be getting to more balls and the routine play hasn't eluded him like it did last season. I don't think you'd expect most shortstops to get to the one he got to yesterday. That's a mental error in making that throw. Mental errors need to be addressed, yes, but the talent is pretty clearly there. My gut is that when the Royals do decide to put their best infield defense out there, Witt isn't at shortstop, but I'm enjoying watching his development there.
Watched this game wire to wire. More than ever I’m convinced our schedule truly messed with us. Seeing Tommy Henry and Ryne Nelson and suddenly our offense looks more than competent but seeing Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, deGrom, Eovaldi, Morton, etc and we look like Little Leaguers. As I’ve said before you gotta play who is in front of you but I think we are much closer to middle of the pack than bottom feeder than our record suggests.
They're 2-14 against teams that are more than a game over .500 and 4-4 against the rest, so that does check out. I will continue to say that we'll have a much better idea of what they are after May.