I think several players are hurt and are playing injured. Benni's throws from left field have been atrocious. He doesn't have the strongest arm but lately he can't even get them to the plate. I know Salvy's knee is worse than they are saying. MM had this problem in STL, playing injured guys. I agree about Whitt. Ed
I like it David! Not that your frustrated per say but the message….which is stemming from you being frustrated. You’ve actually been more level headed than I have in this. One of my frustrations is not even due to this year or the record so far. It’s how we’ve gotten there. If you are playing all the younger kids and we are 9-17 so be it. But this is an awful product and I’m tired of being sold how close we are to contending (I know you still think next year is possible and I don’t think you are wrong necessary it just is hard to see at the moment)…when the product is NOT close to contending. My only struggle is that if we end up with 70ish wins again…are we really expecting a 20 win increase next year? It’s happened before, but that seems like a bit of a stretch to me. Its just so unnecessary as well because all the message had to be this year is “we expect to compete, but we need to get the Kids up together this year.” That’s it, just leave it at that. Management has a way of finding a way to get another “year” out of this job the last few years (making JJ in charge to reset things comes to mind) and it is feeling like they will find a way to extend that again this year.
Great article David, if I could have I would have liked this 10 times. Dayton Moore is no doubt a good man, I know he respected, I think through out baseball. I am with you though, I think it time for a change. I would love to know what causes their love affair with ROH.
Sometimes in life, business and sports we tend to overthink things. We believe something will work a certain way or a logical progression of decisions will lead to a conclusion. However in a climate of transition, things can often go astray quickly. Decisions often get made for you before your planned moves can be made.
I believe Royals management thought they could manage this transition. Instead of preparing for a season trying to win a division, they were preparing for the move to young players they believe are the future.
I believe instead of slowly moving prospects into the Major League roster, it maybe time to strip it of those being moved aside. For those prospects struggling, let the next player in line get an opportunity especially the pitchers. It still maybe ugly, but at least we get to see something different and hopefully some positive progress.
I'm sure everyone here will want to shoot me for saying this, but I've seen a lot of good things happen for this team so far. They have Benintendi back on track. Witt is playing every day and improving. Keller is showing he's still really good. Lynch is making progress. Melendez looks great at the plate. The bullpen (and Matheny's management of it) continues to shine.
Look, I know the bottom of the roster is a huge problem, and I'd love to read a story about why the Royals value O'Hearn as much as they do. Mondesi is done. Kowar might be one of the inevitable busts from 2018. Whit looks ... bad.
Losing sucks. My mood is always better after a Royals win. But I'm finally in a place where I can see the big picture and know that success in anything is almost never linear. I really think this is going to work with a few adjustments to the roster and coaching staff. Good things are ahead.
I understand managers and coaches in general deal with a lot of the personal side of sports that we do not see, but the playing time that gets handed out to guys who clearly have hit their ceiling and aren't of a major league caliber (O'Hearn) or guys who have clearly run the tread out of their tires and at best need to be relegated to part time duty (Santana, Whit sadly) is a major issue here. Dayton prides himself on leaning towards the human side of sports and not worrying about service time manipulation and that playing time is handed out based on ability, but Olivares shredded in ST and couldn't even sniff the lineup for weeks. I know anytime a big leaguer struggles then the chants to bring up the young prospect to replace him are super loud, but it feels like the front office is the last to know in all of baseball when a guy they have is actually just below average and isn't going to bounce back or take a leap. I didn't even get to pitchers, prior to his injury, Brentz looked abysmal but that personal connection of knowing Matheny from his Cards days is so strong that I'm sure he'll be right back out there once he's off the IL.
Hi David! I love the newsletter, I've read almost every one.
What's frustrating at least for me is that the front office seems to get stuck on two very bad habits: making decisions fearfully, and sunk cost fallacy. It seems like they're afraid to make risky decisions and end up looking the fool or like they can't bring themselves to admit when a decision turned out poorly, and move on. Or maybe that being a small market team drives the decision more than winning, and can't bring themselves to eat a loss like Santana even if it's disrupting their future. Committing to a sunk cost is the only thing that makes the handling of O'Hearn make any sense. Or hesitating for 3 years before questioning Cal Eldred or what will be 3-4 years from moving on from Merrifield. I've heard from several military guys that it's much easier to teach restraint to someone who's aggressive than to teach aggression to someone who's passive. For trades, it seems like they only make decisions that have a 90% chance positive outcome, instead of like 55%. As much as we all like him, getting Greinke wasn't exactly risky.
Correct me if I'm wrong, cause I'm not a very analytical person, and maybe I'm speculating way too much, but this is what seems to be happening, to me at least.
Loved this. I thought Hernandez was visibly frustrated right before unraveling yesterday and I don’t blame him at all. Honestly, it was good to see someone that seemed to care about winning the game - even if that hurt us in the end. Not saying other guys don’t, but I still liked to see the frustration from one of the players. It’s the complacency that seems like it’s driving me off a cliff this season. Whit talking about his hard hit rate as a reason for not being worried, Matheny running out (mostly) the same lineups everyday with the worst offense in the league, and just a lack of urgency from a 9-17 team. I didn’t expect a playoff team this season, but I didn’t expect this either.
Really enjoy your stuff. It’s nice to be able to read about the royals from someone with a similar outlook. I’m just trying to hold onto the positives for as long as I can.
You are right David, since the Royals can't hit and the suspect pinching must be perfect this is going to be a grim year. I don't think i will be around to see the finish unless so major changes are made quick.
I think you are overanalyzing things. The Royals offense is 27th or 28th in MLB; the pitching is 27th or 28th. Thus, it is unsurprising their record is 27th/28th. I do think things will get a little better on the offensive side. Witt Jr. is clearly improving; Olivares will return; Melendez looks like a keeper; Salvy and Merrifield will be less terrible; Dozier will have a couple hot streaks. (I think it would help him if they would just install him at first for the rest of the year and give him some coaching there, rather than moving him around constantly.) But that will only get us to, say, 23rd or 24th in MLB. Further improvement would require improved starting pitching. But I don't see any help on the horizon there, and "Greinke, Keller and Lynch and pray for two days of rain" isn't a realistic strategy, or even a rhyme.
I think management--including the manager and the batting and pitching coaches are the problem. They start the wrong players, some of whom need to be traded, and the batting is awful--so many pitchers throw strikes first, knowing that the Royals batters are going to just look at them and not swing. I remember Alcides Escobar in the World Series who swung at most first pitches and he was very successful at it. The Royals need to keep most of their players and overhaul the management team in my opinion.
I only follow the Royals so I may be wrong about these next few statements; I don't believe there is a ROH on any other roster in MLB. That being someone who stinks so bad and still gets ran out there AND ran out there in the 4 hole??? I don't there's another MLB team with Pitching and Hitting Coaches with such consistent failures that have the tenures they have. I don't believe there are many, if any, teams out there with someone in DMs spot who have delivered this consistent futility (did you say three years with more than 81 wins???) and still have the same job.
We can't blame ownership not spending money anymore. So if it's not the money, it's the management. It pains me to say this as a Royals fan but the reality is this franchise stinks and the stench starts at the top.
I think several players are hurt and are playing injured. Benni's throws from left field have been atrocious. He doesn't have the strongest arm but lately he can't even get them to the plate. I know Salvy's knee is worse than they are saying. MM had this problem in STL, playing injured guys. I agree about Whitt. Ed
I like it David! Not that your frustrated per say but the message….which is stemming from you being frustrated. You’ve actually been more level headed than I have in this. One of my frustrations is not even due to this year or the record so far. It’s how we’ve gotten there. If you are playing all the younger kids and we are 9-17 so be it. But this is an awful product and I’m tired of being sold how close we are to contending (I know you still think next year is possible and I don’t think you are wrong necessary it just is hard to see at the moment)…when the product is NOT close to contending. My only struggle is that if we end up with 70ish wins again…are we really expecting a 20 win increase next year? It’s happened before, but that seems like a bit of a stretch to me. Its just so unnecessary as well because all the message had to be this year is “we expect to compete, but we need to get the Kids up together this year.” That’s it, just leave it at that. Management has a way of finding a way to get another “year” out of this job the last few years (making JJ in charge to reset things comes to mind) and it is feeling like they will find a way to extend that again this year.
That’s it, there is my rant. Lol
Great article David, if I could have I would have liked this 10 times. Dayton Moore is no doubt a good man, I know he respected, I think through out baseball. I am with you though, I think it time for a change. I would love to know what causes their love affair with ROH.
Sometimes in life, business and sports we tend to overthink things. We believe something will work a certain way or a logical progression of decisions will lead to a conclusion. However in a climate of transition, things can often go astray quickly. Decisions often get made for you before your planned moves can be made.
I believe Royals management thought they could manage this transition. Instead of preparing for a season trying to win a division, they were preparing for the move to young players they believe are the future.
I believe instead of slowly moving prospects into the Major League roster, it maybe time to strip it of those being moved aside. For those prospects struggling, let the next player in line get an opportunity especially the pitchers. It still maybe ugly, but at least we get to see something different and hopefully some positive progress.
I'm sure everyone here will want to shoot me for saying this, but I've seen a lot of good things happen for this team so far. They have Benintendi back on track. Witt is playing every day and improving. Keller is showing he's still really good. Lynch is making progress. Melendez looks great at the plate. The bullpen (and Matheny's management of it) continues to shine.
Look, I know the bottom of the roster is a huge problem, and I'd love to read a story about why the Royals value O'Hearn as much as they do. Mondesi is done. Kowar might be one of the inevitable busts from 2018. Whit looks ... bad.
Losing sucks. My mood is always better after a Royals win. But I'm finally in a place where I can see the big picture and know that success in anything is almost never linear. I really think this is going to work with a few adjustments to the roster and coaching staff. Good things are ahead.
I understand managers and coaches in general deal with a lot of the personal side of sports that we do not see, but the playing time that gets handed out to guys who clearly have hit their ceiling and aren't of a major league caliber (O'Hearn) or guys who have clearly run the tread out of their tires and at best need to be relegated to part time duty (Santana, Whit sadly) is a major issue here. Dayton prides himself on leaning towards the human side of sports and not worrying about service time manipulation and that playing time is handed out based on ability, but Olivares shredded in ST and couldn't even sniff the lineup for weeks. I know anytime a big leaguer struggles then the chants to bring up the young prospect to replace him are super loud, but it feels like the front office is the last to know in all of baseball when a guy they have is actually just below average and isn't going to bounce back or take a leap. I didn't even get to pitchers, prior to his injury, Brentz looked abysmal but that personal connection of knowing Matheny from his Cards days is so strong that I'm sure he'll be right back out there once he's off the IL.
Hi David! I love the newsletter, I've read almost every one.
What's frustrating at least for me is that the front office seems to get stuck on two very bad habits: making decisions fearfully, and sunk cost fallacy. It seems like they're afraid to make risky decisions and end up looking the fool or like they can't bring themselves to admit when a decision turned out poorly, and move on. Or maybe that being a small market team drives the decision more than winning, and can't bring themselves to eat a loss like Santana even if it's disrupting their future. Committing to a sunk cost is the only thing that makes the handling of O'Hearn make any sense. Or hesitating for 3 years before questioning Cal Eldred or what will be 3-4 years from moving on from Merrifield. I've heard from several military guys that it's much easier to teach restraint to someone who's aggressive than to teach aggression to someone who's passive. For trades, it seems like they only make decisions that have a 90% chance positive outcome, instead of like 55%. As much as we all like him, getting Greinke wasn't exactly risky.
Correct me if I'm wrong, cause I'm not a very analytical person, and maybe I'm speculating way too much, but this is what seems to be happening, to me at least.
Sorry for rambling!
Loved this. I thought Hernandez was visibly frustrated right before unraveling yesterday and I don’t blame him at all. Honestly, it was good to see someone that seemed to care about winning the game - even if that hurt us in the end. Not saying other guys don’t, but I still liked to see the frustration from one of the players. It’s the complacency that seems like it’s driving me off a cliff this season. Whit talking about his hard hit rate as a reason for not being worried, Matheny running out (mostly) the same lineups everyday with the worst offense in the league, and just a lack of urgency from a 9-17 team. I didn’t expect a playoff team this season, but I didn’t expect this either.
Really enjoy your stuff. It’s nice to be able to read about the royals from someone with a similar outlook. I’m just trying to hold onto the positives for as long as I can.
You are right David, since the Royals can't hit and the suspect pinching must be perfect this is going to be a grim year. I don't think i will be around to see the finish unless so major changes are made quick.
I think you are overanalyzing things. The Royals offense is 27th or 28th in MLB; the pitching is 27th or 28th. Thus, it is unsurprising their record is 27th/28th. I do think things will get a little better on the offensive side. Witt Jr. is clearly improving; Olivares will return; Melendez looks like a keeper; Salvy and Merrifield will be less terrible; Dozier will have a couple hot streaks. (I think it would help him if they would just install him at first for the rest of the year and give him some coaching there, rather than moving him around constantly.) But that will only get us to, say, 23rd or 24th in MLB. Further improvement would require improved starting pitching. But I don't see any help on the horizon there, and "Greinke, Keller and Lynch and pray for two days of rain" isn't a realistic strategy, or even a rhyme.
I think management--including the manager and the batting and pitching coaches are the problem. They start the wrong players, some of whom need to be traded, and the batting is awful--so many pitchers throw strikes first, knowing that the Royals batters are going to just look at them and not swing. I remember Alcides Escobar in the World Series who swung at most first pitches and he was very successful at it. The Royals need to keep most of their players and overhaul the management team in my opinion.
Great article and couldn't agree more.
I only follow the Royals so I may be wrong about these next few statements; I don't believe there is a ROH on any other roster in MLB. That being someone who stinks so bad and still gets ran out there AND ran out there in the 4 hole??? I don't there's another MLB team with Pitching and Hitting Coaches with such consistent failures that have the tenures they have. I don't believe there are many, if any, teams out there with someone in DMs spot who have delivered this consistent futility (did you say three years with more than 81 wins???) and still have the same job.
We can't blame ownership not spending money anymore. So if it's not the money, it's the management. It pains me to say this as a Royals fan but the reality is this franchise stinks and the stench starts at the top.