Another One Slips Away

That's two this road trip. They can't afford to lose games like that.

The Royals have now twice had one-run leads in the eighth inning or later on games this road trip and have lost. Last night’s walkoff by the Texas Rangers was a little different in that the one-run lead was followed by the Manfred Man on second (I seriously despise that rule that’s now permanent and yes, I know that’s how the Royals scored their run). But even so, the bullpen was supposed to be the part of this team that would allow them to steal wins they shouldn’t win. And twice now, they’ve let leads get away. Is that concerning in the long-term? I don’t think so. I think this is still going to end up a good bullpen, but 5-7 would feel a whole lot better than 3-9.

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The record, for the sixth straight year, doesn’t matter. It didn’t matter at first pitch on March 30 and it doesn’t matter today. This season is about what the last few seasons should have been about, but they were woefully mismanaged. And that’s fine. At least with me. As long as they take what they ended up learning in 2023 and put that toward 2024’s record actually mattering. That’s another story for another day, but when you’re six years removed from the last time you competed and you’ve reset things like they have, year seven has to at least be about making progress in the standings. Again, another day. I honestly don’t quite know where to start with this one.

On one hand, a starting pitching matchup of Jordan Lyles vs. Jacob deGrom is such a mismatch that it almost feels good to have even had a shot to win. On the other hand, the Royals wasted some opportunities that they’ve wasted all season long (and likely won’t waste all season long moving forward, for what it’s worth) that put them in the spot they were in.

In the top of the second, Vinnie Pasquantino doubled against deGrom to lead off the inning. In a rare case of situational hitting, Edward Olivares moved him to third with a grounder to second. It appeared Olivares was actually trying to hit the ball to the right side. I was actually kind of shocked. But then Michael Massey struck out and Franmil Reyes grounded out and the inning was over.

In the top of the third, Kyle Isbel led off with a hustle double. Hunter Dozier also looked like he was trying to go the other way, but couldn’t make contact. The Royals got a big hit from Bobby Witt Jr., who singled Isbel home and moved to second on the throw, but was followed by MJ Melendez striking out and then Salvador Perez popping up.

In the fourth, Pasquantino led off with another double, but Olivares popped out and Massey struck out again. Thankfully for the Royals, Reyes picked up his first non-home run hit of the year with a single to right. I thought Adolis Garcia’s dive was unnecessary and caused the ball to pop out of his glove, but I’m glad he did it because it gave the Royals a second run. But Reyes made an ill-advised decision and tried to get to second where he was meat and that was the inning.

With the game 4-2, the Royals finally got into the Rangers bullpen and it looked like they had something big cooking. Witt singled to lead off the inning and Melendez walked. Perez then singled to center to score Witt and the Royals were down by one with two on and nobody out. They made the absolutely correct decision to pinch run for Salvy with Jackie Bradley Jr. Pasquantino followed with a flyout to right that advanced both runners, which was great. And Olivares was walked intentionally to get to Massey. He, yep, you guessed it, struck out. Then Nate Eaton, who had come in to pinch run for Reyes earlier, struck out as well and bases loaded with one out and down by one was squandered.

But it was bigger than that because of the pinch running situation. That took Perez out of the game. Again, it was the right decision, but not being able to come through hurt because the very next inning, the Royals were back at it. Isbel singled, Nicky Lopez pinch hit for Dozier and walked and a Witt flyout got Isbel to third. Then Melendez came through with a HUGE hit to tie the game and that brought up Bradley with first and second and nobody out. Look, Perez could easily hit into a double play. He doesn’t hit into many of them because he doesn’t hit the ball on the ground much, but he could do it. The problem is Bradley is now sporting a .095/.240/.095 line with a -1 OPS+ and a 5 wRC+. If the Royals could have done anything when he correctly pinch ran, it wouldn’t have mattered, but it did. He hit into a double play and that was that.

Aroldis Chapman was dominant once again in the ninth and the Royals actually moved runners in the 10th to score one run, which was nice, though a big hit would have been nicer. Still, there was some redemption for Massey who had been having an absolutely terrible night. He hit the sacrifice fly to give the Royals the lead in the top of the 10th. But again, the inability to move runners hurt the team. Yes, Scott Barlow gave up the walk-off home run and all that, but if the offense could be just a little bit better in the important situations, it never would have come to that. I’ll get to the other side in a minute, but I want to touch on this offense.

They are still incredibly unlucky. I think people look at BABIP and declare lucky and unlucky too quickly, but a .237 BABIP is unlucky. Oakland’s .264 BABIP last season was the lowest in a full season since 2010. The lowest league-wide BABIP since 2010 was last season and it’s sitting at .299 this year. Without looking anywhere else, you can see they’ve been unlucky. And their hard-hit rate remains second-best. They’re barreling balls now that they weren’t before. I’m confident they’ll turn things around in some ways.

The problem is that batted ball data is great, but doesn’t matter if they’re not making contact. The Royals are currently sitting with the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball at 26.7 percent. They swing and miss at 12.2 percent of pitches, seventh-most in baseball. They’re swinging at 35.9 percent of pitches that aren’t strikes. It’s a tough blow to have the game they did on Monday against Andrew Heaney and then have to turn around get deGrom, but that’s why you don’t strike out 10 times against Heaney. They simply swing too much, and it gets worse with runners in scoring position.

Overall, they’re swinging at 49.8 percent of pitches they see, but they’re seeing the fifth-fewest pitches in the zone in baseball. They are swinging at 41 percent pitches outside the zone with runners in scoring position compared to 32.6 percent with the bases empty. That figure is still the highest in baseball, so there’s a problem, but they’re expanding the zone at the worst possible times. The good news is that it’s largely fixable. The bad news is that they have some guys who like to swing. Massey likes to swing, Perez likes to swing (though he’s been remarkably difficult to strike out this year), Witt likes to swing (though he’s been more patient), Reyes likes to swing and Dozier likes to swing.

So that’s why the Royals have both hit into bad luck and not hit into enough luck overall for it to matter as much as it could. I think some of this will work itself out. Something tells me Melendez, who had a 21.7 percent strikeout rate between AA and AAA in 2021, a 24.2 percent strikeout rate in AAA in 2022 and a 24.5 percent strikeout rate in the big leagues last year, isn’t going to rock a 39.5 percent strikeout rate for long, especially not with his patience.

I don’t see Eaton sitting at 52.6 percent, or if he is, he’ll be in AAA. I don’t think Massey (15.5 percent in high-A in 2021, 22.8 percent in the minors last year and 23.7 percent in the majors) will be at 37.5 percent forever. Reyes is here temporarily, as is Dozier. So yes, these things work themselves out a little bit, but for now, there is far too much whiffing combined with legitimate bad luck leading to some serious issues.

I’ve gone on too long here already, but I want to talk about a couple of quick things. First, I tweeted this, but I think it’s worth the discussion here as well. The Royals didn’t pinch hit for Massey in that eighth inning when the Rangers brought in a lefty. I thought they would because that’s the sort of move they’d made to this point. This very franchise is the one where Ned Yost kept sending Alcides Escobar to the plate in big situations because he needed to learn, so I’m 100 percent fine with that. But I just want some consistency.

Using Massey as the example, he’s started eight of the Royals 12 games so far. Of the four games he hasn’t started, he’s sat against Sonny Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Sean Manaea and Heaney. The first one was Matt Quatraro wanting to get everyone in a game that first weekend. The next three were lefties. The Royals have faced three lefty starters in 12 games and Massey has been on the bench for all of them.

If you want Massey to get experience in those situations, I’m all for it. I just want them to apply it beyond one game. Using the strategy from the previous times the Royals have faced a lefty, Massey should have been hit for by Matt Duffy. Do the Royals win the game if Duffy hits for him in the eighth? Maybe! I would lean toward development given the goal of this year, but you can’t sit a guy against all lefties and then choose this scenario to develop him.

The lineups we’ve seen have generated some pretty strong criticism at times. The Royals play the numbers now and that leads to some things we haven’t seen with the Royals. And I’m 100 percent fine with the majority of it. I do think that guys need to get into more of a rhythm than they’ve been allowed to get into, but I’m reserving some judgment there beyond 12 games. But I think they need to pick a lane and stick to it. You’re either all in on playing the matchups or you’re all in on developing. Going back and forth does nobody any favors.

There will be Scott Barlow discourse today. It happens every year. Barlow took a 5-4 lead in the 10th and it was an 8-5 loss when he walked off the mound. It was especially disappointing because, even with the runner on second to start the 10th, the Royals had a path out thanks to Witt’s great defensive play. Let’s look at that real quick.

Barlow, though, was a little in love with his fastball last night, which is something we basically never see. He threw more fastballs than any other pitch last night. Including his new two-seamer, he threw 10 out of 21 pitches hard. And it bit him against Garcia after that great catch by Witt as he singled up the middle on the third of three straight two-seamers. I’m not sure how you’re not throwing your best pitch there instead of your newest pitch that you developed to keep hitters off the four-seamer a little more. I think after that, he sort of ran out of gas and ended up walking Josh Jung, which didn’t matter and then giving up a bomb to Jonah Heim to end it.

The thing about Barlow is he’s a good pitcher who has had great numbers. He’s not overpowering, he sometimes loses the zone and he’s a bit prone to the long ball. It’s why I’ve said for two years now that the Royals are going to be better off if Barlow isn’t in the ninth inning even though he’s arguably their best reliever. Put him in the spots to thrive and he can be even better than he has been. But I will not stand for the annual “Barlow sucks” talk that happens every time he does what he did last night, which is like once or twice a year.

Between 2021 and 2022 among 94 relievers, Barlow is second in innings, tied for sixth in ERA, 25th in FIP, 29th in strikeout rate and 46th in walk rate. He’s also third in strand rate (not just his own messes wither) and 11th in fWAR. I’m a little surprised he wasn’t moved this winter, though we don’t know the trade proposals. I’ve said this before, but if the Royals were offered for Barlow what the Orioles got for Jorge Lopez last year, I’m glad they passed. Now, I think there was a bit of a mistake made in the order he was used with Chapman. I’d have used Barlow in the ninth when the strikeout wasn’t quite as important and Chapman in the 10th with that runner on second, but that’s kind of a different story.

I do think there will come a time when Barlow loses effectiveness. I’m a bit worried that his mechanics are out of whack as before last night, he’d been releasing his fastball more than six inches close to home plate than in previous years. But I still see strong breaking balls and what looks like a pitcher who just needs to get into a flow. I guess what I’m saying is that I’m paying attention to Barlow, but I’m not jumping ship on Barlow. I do think it will be a mistake if he isn’t moved this year. But, until then, I’d bet on him closing out a lot more games for the Royals than blowing them.

I really should have written yesterday. I have too much to say today! I briefly want to mention that Substack Notes is live! It’s another social media platform that is similar to Twitter and probably a big reason why the guy in charge got so worked up last week and made Substack links posted there a mess until public pressure got them to reverse course. I’m going to try to be fairly active there (no promises but I’ll try!), so I hope you’ll join me there. You can get it in the Substack app (linked above) and I believe on the web as well.