I think the word luck is appropriately used when talking about games of chance. Like rolling dice, or winning the lottery. But baseball is a game of skill. It takes skill to hit a ball coming at you at 100 mph, not luck. It takes skill to hit that ball into a double or a home run or get it into play at all. There is no luck involved in striking out, it’s a lack of skill. I’m not denigrating anyone, it is absolutely mind blowing to me that those men can hit the ball at all! But I just don’t think luck is involved
The Royals have the biggest gap between their batting average on balls hit 100 MPH or harder and their expected batting average on those pitches. They also have the largest gap on those balls between slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage. That's bad luck, plain and simple and it will turn around. But, as I wrote, the strikeouts and whiffs mitigate some of that bad luck because they're not making enough contact.
Soren did well on Tuesday to point out that BWJ has always been a slow starter offensively. Not just last year but in the minor leagues as well. He typically heats up significantly in May and June.
Defensively, well - David, I was glad to see you report the team's claim that his footwork is much improved. I certainly hope that claim is true but even more, I question whether it really matters much or not in his case.
Yes his spectacular plays are thrilling and fun to watch. But in both games in Texas so far he has botched fairly routine (somewhat difficult but not overly so) plays that every legitimate MLB SS make without fail. Both of those botches have cost the Royals outs. Certainly, I know he's young and all that. But at some point he needs to start playing SS like a grownup man who requires no excuses.
He does always start slow and he had a weird spring that the Royals are definitely not happy about with the WBC. I'm not worried about the offense. I am worried about his defense and the one on Monday was definitely a problem. Last night was a gray area to me, though you'd like to see him make that play because you assume Lopez and Garcia would. I'm willing to give him more than two weeks with a new infield coach who is so highly regarded though.
My 1.2016 cents worth after taxes? He probably would, at least a little, but he needs to make the Robin Yount transition: from SS to CF. That's another position that would take full advantage of his magnificent athleticism.
Maybe. He wasn’t especially good there last year, but I’d like to see him at shortstop for more than 12 games without moving around the diamond first. There’s nothing lost to seeing if he can figure it out.
In my admittedly skeptical-old-guy opinion, we had all the evidence we needed about his play at SS by the end of last season. Waiting to see if the new coach helps him sounds wonderful in theory but that coach doesn't take the field with him.
Did we? He played 825.2 innings at shortstop and moved between positions through the entire season. I don't think it's ridiculous to want to see what he can do when that's his spot. Maybe it doesn't work. Heck, it *probably* doesn't work. But the most value he gives is at shortstop. I'd like to see it for at least a few months.
Since the early returns indicate that absolutely nothing has changed with him since last season, I have to ask the obvious question: how many innings are "enough"? 1000? 1200? 1500? How many more easily avoidable errors are "understandable" and for how much longer?
The ready availability of a gold-glove-caliber SS in Lopez makes the situation all the more frustrating to me.
Of course it doesn't help that there's often a cast-iron-glove third baseman lining up next to him. I've read and heard that Hunter Dozier is one hell of a good guy so I'm happy for him that he's become a multi-millionaire. But he's not a MLB-caliber infielder. And that doesn't help BWJ at all.
My whole point, and the Royals point, is that we honestly don’t know if he can play shortstop. All the factors last season impacted him. Now he’s been given a position and a coach who, again, is very well regarded. There is literally no harm in trying. Remember when Marcus Semien couldn’t play shortstop? He’s an extreme example but he became legitimately excellent there. He should honestly be the shortstop in Texas.
I’ve been a little goosey on Barlow anyway and had the same thoughts that he and Chapman should have been reversed mainly because of the dumbo second base start thing. I think Chapman throws more nasty stuff than Barlow does and in my thinking, that’s what you need for that screwy rule. My opinion.
I believe that Q is still learning his "circle of Trust" in the bullpen. In an extra inning game, he should have saved Chapman for the 10th and Barlow for the 11th if needed. Have your best strikeout pitcher for a situation with a runner at 2nd with no one out.
In SF he stuck with Yarbrough I think b/c he didn't want to go back to back w/Chapman. He will learn, bullpen management is hard.
We need to cut Bradley, Dozier. Massey needs a turn in Omaha. Let's see Garcia and maybe Alexander.
I would assume JBJ is gone when Waters comes back. Dozier is going to be gone by August 1 one way or another. With regard to Massey, I wouldn't be making decisions based on 32 plate appearances for anyone. I'm certainly not saying he's Mike Trout, but 32 plate appearances is basically nothing. Trout hit .036/.156/.036 in a 32 plate appearance stretch last season. If he can look that bad, anyone can. But I think it should be on the radar if he continues to struggle.
I’m going to take a more positive approach today. Offense is ok yet. The strikeouts are a bit of a concern but I really do think that is a lot of just learning for the younger guys. I guess the question more becomes to me….if they can’t figure some of that stuff out does adding Pratto to the mix really help anything. Is the roster construction a bit of a problem in that regard?
I’ve been tooting the bullpen’s horn and here they are not as good so far as I would have thought. Small sample size yet…but that’s a bit of a bummer. No issues with Barlow last night as it happens to everyone at some point. However, I thought his velocity was down a bit. I saw quite a few 92’s. Is that down for him or I just haven’t paid attention? Idk that people think Barlow sucks…I think that’s more the fear that the royals will/or have missed the opportunity to trade him at his highest value. Only time will tell.
My favorite article to read is going to be when you take the gloves off……if you have too…..hopefully you never have too….but the fact you mentioned it in your article means your getting closer! Lol
I'm not any closer today than I was yesterday or the week before or in mid-February. I've said all along that if they don't make moves to contend this next offseason that I'm going to call them out on that.
Pratto has to earn his way to KC and he hasn't been good in Omaha anyway, so I wouldn't worry about him adding to the problem because he isn't making a case to even potentially be in the mix anyway. As for Barlow's velocity, it's been decreasing for a couple years now and there's some concern there for sure. My issue with the idea of trading guys at their highest value is if the return still isn't good enough, I don't especially care if they weren't moved. Getting something is theoretically better than getting nothing but getting nothing in something may as well just be nothing. That may have been the most confusing sentence I've ever written.
“Getting something is theoretically better than getting nothing but getting nothing in something may as well just be nothing.” Yogi Berra or David Lesky?
I wonder how much of Barlow's issue last night was related to the person behind the plate. Does MJ call pitches or do they send them in from the bench?
I'm also curious if pinch-running for Reyes and Salvy affected the decision to let Massey hit against the lefty. They ended the game with only Duffy left on the bench.
MJ calls pitches, but Barlow can shake them off too. I know there's only so much time, but with a runner on second, he starts with 20 seconds on the pitch clock. There's plenty of time to shake it off. Plus, I don't think MJ is calling the pitches without a game plan ahead of time anyway.
I would hope they wouldn't save someone back on the bench if it gave them a chance to win.
By the way Massey is swinging, he's pressing. Maybe the sacfly will cause him to stop swinging wildly with runners in scoring position. I'd be ready to cut bait on Dozier now. Every swing has the same plane, he hits hard only when the ball is thrown into that plane.
He does look like he's pressing, but guys press all the time and then get out of it. I would say the only reason you make a move that fast is if the player is being hurt by being in the big leagues, which maybe he is, but I just don't think so.
I think 99% of the fanbase was ready to cut bait on Dozier two years ago, but the Royals aren't going to do it two weeks in.
Good point on Massey. Maybe there is something else in the numbers we haven't hear about? I would love to hear the reasoning for it, or maybe just a mistake. I was surprised months ago when Q mentioned that they are looking at realtime stats during the game as well - I had no idea teams did this.
You have sold me that the offense will come around, but will there be a "regression to mean" on pitching when other teams have a chance to study all the new pitches?
Notes look like they could be cool, but the intro said something about it being for writers - do you want us to reply a la twitter there?
Glass is half full is that the Royals have actually come back from being behind a couple of games on the road. That has got to be a good sign. Glass is half empty: I'm glad you have pointed out how many strike outs they have and how many swings out of the zone they are swinging. I don't think MJ or Witt Jr should be leading off. They should both be hitting lower in the lineup. Although a small sample size, I'm really ready to see to Isbel and Olivares playing most every game and in the outfield. We don't need JBJ, we don't need Reyes, and when Waters comes back, those three could be legitimate in the outfield. I'm ready to let Garcia come up as SS and move Witt to 3rd. All Lopez has ever done is absolutely everything and anything the Royals have asked of him. I don't see all the hype with Massey considering all the LOB from last night and his performance so far.
I think the word luck is appropriately used when talking about games of chance. Like rolling dice, or winning the lottery. But baseball is a game of skill. It takes skill to hit a ball coming at you at 100 mph, not luck. It takes skill to hit that ball into a double or a home run or get it into play at all. There is no luck involved in striking out, it’s a lack of skill. I’m not denigrating anyone, it is absolutely mind blowing to me that those men can hit the ball at all! But I just don’t think luck is involved
The Royals have the biggest gap between their batting average on balls hit 100 MPH or harder and their expected batting average on those pitches. They also have the largest gap on those balls between slugging percentage and expected slugging percentage. That's bad luck, plain and simple and it will turn around. But, as I wrote, the strikeouts and whiffs mitigate some of that bad luck because they're not making enough contact.
Regarding BWJ....
Soren did well on Tuesday to point out that BWJ has always been a slow starter offensively. Not just last year but in the minor leagues as well. He typically heats up significantly in May and June.
Defensively, well - David, I was glad to see you report the team's claim that his footwork is much improved. I certainly hope that claim is true but even more, I question whether it really matters much or not in his case.
Yes his spectacular plays are thrilling and fun to watch. But in both games in Texas so far he has botched fairly routine (somewhat difficult but not overly so) plays that every legitimate MLB SS make without fail. Both of those botches have cost the Royals outs. Certainly, I know he's young and all that. But at some point he needs to start playing SS like a grownup man who requires no excuses.
He does always start slow and he had a weird spring that the Royals are definitely not happy about with the WBC. I'm not worried about the offense. I am worried about his defense and the one on Monday was definitely a problem. Last night was a gray area to me, though you'd like to see him make that play because you assume Lopez and Garcia would. I'm willing to give him more than two weeks with a new infield coach who is so highly regarded though.
Would BWJ be better at third base?
My 1.2016 cents worth after taxes? He probably would, at least a little, but he needs to make the Robin Yount transition: from SS to CF. That's another position that would take full advantage of his magnificent athleticism.
Oh! I like that idea!
Maybe. He wasn’t especially good there last year, but I’d like to see him at shortstop for more than 12 games without moving around the diamond first. There’s nothing lost to seeing if he can figure it out.
In my admittedly skeptical-old-guy opinion, we had all the evidence we needed about his play at SS by the end of last season. Waiting to see if the new coach helps him sounds wonderful in theory but that coach doesn't take the field with him.
Did we? He played 825.2 innings at shortstop and moved between positions through the entire season. I don't think it's ridiculous to want to see what he can do when that's his spot. Maybe it doesn't work. Heck, it *probably* doesn't work. But the most value he gives is at shortstop. I'd like to see it for at least a few months.
Since the early returns indicate that absolutely nothing has changed with him since last season, I have to ask the obvious question: how many innings are "enough"? 1000? 1200? 1500? How many more easily avoidable errors are "understandable" and for how much longer?
The ready availability of a gold-glove-caliber SS in Lopez makes the situation all the more frustrating to me.
Of course it doesn't help that there's often a cast-iron-glove third baseman lining up next to him. I've read and heard that Hunter Dozier is one hell of a good guy so I'm happy for him that he's become a multi-millionaire. But he's not a MLB-caliber infielder. And that doesn't help BWJ at all.
My whole point, and the Royals point, is that we honestly don’t know if he can play shortstop. All the factors last season impacted him. Now he’s been given a position and a coach who, again, is very well regarded. There is literally no harm in trying. Remember when Marcus Semien couldn’t play shortstop? He’s an extreme example but he became legitimately excellent there. He should honestly be the shortstop in Texas.
I’ve been a little goosey on Barlow anyway and had the same thoughts that he and Chapman should have been reversed mainly because of the dumbo second base start thing. I think Chapman throws more nasty stuff than Barlow does and in my thinking, that’s what you need for that screwy rule. My opinion.
Yep, I would have understood a little more if the matchups favored it, but I think they stuck to roles too much.
I think I may actually hate that stupid "ghost runner on 2nd base" rule more than you do, if that's even possible!
My wife would argue with anyone who thinks they hate it more than me. Maybe equally haha.
I believe that Q is still learning his "circle of Trust" in the bullpen. In an extra inning game, he should have saved Chapman for the 10th and Barlow for the 11th if needed. Have your best strikeout pitcher for a situation with a runner at 2nd with no one out.
In SF he stuck with Yarbrough I think b/c he didn't want to go back to back w/Chapman. He will learn, bullpen management is hard.
We need to cut Bradley, Dozier. Massey needs a turn in Omaha. Let's see Garcia and maybe Alexander.
I would assume JBJ is gone when Waters comes back. Dozier is going to be gone by August 1 one way or another. With regard to Massey, I wouldn't be making decisions based on 32 plate appearances for anyone. I'm certainly not saying he's Mike Trout, but 32 plate appearances is basically nothing. Trout hit .036/.156/.036 in a 32 plate appearance stretch last season. If he can look that bad, anyone can. But I think it should be on the radar if he continues to struggle.
Q wasn't in SF and guessing Hoover went with metrics over situation, but y would have liked to have seen him pulled on loud visit
I’m going to take a more positive approach today. Offense is ok yet. The strikeouts are a bit of a concern but I really do think that is a lot of just learning for the younger guys. I guess the question more becomes to me….if they can’t figure some of that stuff out does adding Pratto to the mix really help anything. Is the roster construction a bit of a problem in that regard?
I’ve been tooting the bullpen’s horn and here they are not as good so far as I would have thought. Small sample size yet…but that’s a bit of a bummer. No issues with Barlow last night as it happens to everyone at some point. However, I thought his velocity was down a bit. I saw quite a few 92’s. Is that down for him or I just haven’t paid attention? Idk that people think Barlow sucks…I think that’s more the fear that the royals will/or have missed the opportunity to trade him at his highest value. Only time will tell.
My favorite article to read is going to be when you take the gloves off……if you have too…..hopefully you never have too….but the fact you mentioned it in your article means your getting closer! Lol
I'm not any closer today than I was yesterday or the week before or in mid-February. I've said all along that if they don't make moves to contend this next offseason that I'm going to call them out on that.
Pratto has to earn his way to KC and he hasn't been good in Omaha anyway, so I wouldn't worry about him adding to the problem because he isn't making a case to even potentially be in the mix anyway. As for Barlow's velocity, it's been decreasing for a couple years now and there's some concern there for sure. My issue with the idea of trading guys at their highest value is if the return still isn't good enough, I don't especially care if they weren't moved. Getting something is theoretically better than getting nothing but getting nothing in something may as well just be nothing. That may have been the most confusing sentence I've ever written.
“Getting something is theoretically better than getting nothing but getting nothing in something may as well just be nothing.” Yogi Berra or David Lesky?
Two peas in a pod.
Couple of thoughts:
I wonder how much of Barlow's issue last night was related to the person behind the plate. Does MJ call pitches or do they send them in from the bench?
I'm also curious if pinch-running for Reyes and Salvy affected the decision to let Massey hit against the lefty. They ended the game with only Duffy left on the bench.
MJ calls pitches, but Barlow can shake them off too. I know there's only so much time, but with a runner on second, he starts with 20 seconds on the pitch clock. There's plenty of time to shake it off. Plus, I don't think MJ is calling the pitches without a game plan ahead of time anyway.
I would hope they wouldn't save someone back on the bench if it gave them a chance to win.
By the way Massey is swinging, he's pressing. Maybe the sacfly will cause him to stop swinging wildly with runners in scoring position. I'd be ready to cut bait on Dozier now. Every swing has the same plane, he hits hard only when the ball is thrown into that plane.
He does look like he's pressing, but guys press all the time and then get out of it. I would say the only reason you make a move that fast is if the player is being hurt by being in the big leagues, which maybe he is, but I just don't think so.
I think 99% of the fanbase was ready to cut bait on Dozier two years ago, but the Royals aren't going to do it two weeks in.
Fair enough.
Good point on Massey. Maybe there is something else in the numbers we haven't hear about? I would love to hear the reasoning for it, or maybe just a mistake. I was surprised months ago when Q mentioned that they are looking at realtime stats during the game as well - I had no idea teams did this.
You have sold me that the offense will come around, but will there be a "regression to mean" on pitching when other teams have a chance to study all the new pitches?
Notes look like they could be cool, but the intro said something about it being for writers - do you want us to reply a la twitter there?
I think that the pitchers may see some regression, but also it's not necessarily a guarantee.
Notes is pretty cool, but I'm not going to be on there all day or anything. I'd say reply wherever you'd like!
Glass is half full is that the Royals have actually come back from being behind a couple of games on the road. That has got to be a good sign. Glass is half empty: I'm glad you have pointed out how many strike outs they have and how many swings out of the zone they are swinging. I don't think MJ or Witt Jr should be leading off. They should both be hitting lower in the lineup. Although a small sample size, I'm really ready to see to Isbel and Olivares playing most every game and in the outfield. We don't need JBJ, we don't need Reyes, and when Waters comes back, those three could be legitimate in the outfield. I'm ready to let Garcia come up as SS and move Witt to 3rd. All Lopez has ever done is absolutely everything and anything the Royals have asked of him. I don't see all the hype with Massey considering all the LOB from last night and his performance so far.