Arbitration Eligible Players Who Fit the Royals

As players make more money, they sometimes find themselves on the move. The Royals have spots for a few of them this year.

Every year when MLB Trade Rumors puts out their list of arbitration estimates, I do two things. First, I open my nerd spreadsheet and update the estimates for the Royals to be able to check on where they are payroll-wise. Then I look up and down the list to try to find players who teams might not want to pay that much who could actually help the Royals. Last year, I looked at some guys like Pablo Lopez, Teoscar Hernandez, Jeimer Candelario and Ryan Yarbrough as players the Royals could go after. I’ll ignore the names of the players who wouldn’t have been worth it who I listed because this is my newsletter and I’m allowed to make myself look good.

With some of these players, it’s not that they aren’t good. It’s just that their team isn’t going to want to pay them as much as they’re projected to earn. And that’s okay! It wasn’t an arbitration case, but I think back to 2012 when the Angels had an option on Ervin Santana they didn’t want to pay. The Royals, rather than having to fight for him in free agency, liked the pitcher and acquired him. That allowed them to pick up the option and not have to put forth a long-term deal and made it so they didn’t have to battle other teams for his services. Sometimes, especially when you have payroll space, it’s worth it even if it’s something of an overpay monetarily.

As I do every year, I’ll start with the trade candidates and then move on to the guys who seem like they could be non-tendered and signed later.

Trade Candidates

Scott Barlow ($7.1 million)

Don’t laugh. The Royals need bullpen help and, depending on what the Padres end up doing in their bullpen, Barlow might become available again. As a more expensive pitcher and someone who is only a year from free agency, the cost to acquire him should be less than what the Royals paid to get him. I don’t think this is terribly likely, but Barlow was really good for the Padres with a 3.07 ERA in 29.1 innings. Why did he struggle at the end in Kansas City? I don’t know, but there’s a track record and he’s tradeable at the deadline.

Shane Bieber ($12.2 million)

I don’t think the Royals have what it takes to get Bieber from a division rival, but I do think he gets traded. There are certainly concerns. His velocity has been dropping and was down to 91.3 MPH on his fastball in 2023 (and 2022). And he missed time with an injury as well. What are they looking for in a deal? I’m honestly not sure, but with just one year of team control left and too many red flags for a long-term deal, I wonder if it isn’t a ridiculous ask.

Paul Blackburn ($3.2 million)

While he isn’t an impact starter, Blackburn is serviceable, which is something the Royals lacked in 2023. His cutter has been the source of a lot of his issues when he has them, so maybe simply throwing that less would help him go from a bit below average to more like average. He isn’t my favorite idea on this list, but the Royals need innings.

Corbin Burnes ($15.1 million)

Burnes is not a terribly likely candidate to be acquired by the Royals, but the idea is fun anyway. He won the Cy Young in 2021 and has seen his ERA and walk rate rise and his strikeout rate fall in each of the two years following, but even with decline, he’s still one of the best out there. He’s a legitimate ace, and I think even with free agency looming after 2024, he’ll fetch a return the Royals can’t match. Teams will want the ability to negotiate with him throughout the year without anyone else getting in the way. But still, it’s a fun thought.

Adrian Houser ($5.6 million)

He has thrown 100 or more innings three times in his big league career and has had a better-than-average ERA+ in four of those seasons. No, he isn’t going to move the needle in a big way, but over the last five seasons, Houser has a 4.04 ERA in 523.2 innings. He works with two fastballs, a four-seamer and a two-seamer, and both got results in 2023. His slider has been a pretty good whiff pitch for him and I’d maybe move on from the curve, though it was okay enough in 2022. The Brewers are always maneuvering around a budget and if they’re wanting to keep Burnes in the fold, Houser may be a casualty, even with Brandon Woodruff out for all of 2024.

Mitch Keller ($6 million)

The Pirates were rumored to be talking extension with Keller before and during last season, but it never got done. I imagine they’ll continue talking, but I don’t think I’d be surprised if he gets moved if he’s not interested in anything. He was a disaster just a couple of years ago, but has been solid the last two seasons. He’s not elite or anything, but he’s a piece that improves any rotation at this point. Like Blackburn, he needs to move away from the cutter. The four-seamer is really good and he only threw it 26.1 percent of the time with the cutter thrown 24.2 percent. Cut that in half and add it to the four-seamer and he’s a better pitcher immediately. He has two years left before free agency, and the Pirates could use some bats. I think there could be a match here.

Tyler O’Neill ($5.5 million)

On one hand, it seems kind of odd to trade for an outfield bat that hasn’t exactly put up big numbers when they already have that. On the other hand, O’Neill was a monster in 2021, hitting .286/.352/.560. He’s rated well defensively too, but the Cardinals don’t seem to see him in their long-term plans. He’s a free agent after 2024, so I imagine the Cardinals are looking to get something for him and he might even be a non-tender candidate. I’d take a shot on him for sure.

Patrick Sandoval ($5 million)

I’m not sure exactly why the Angels would trade Sandoval with three years left of team control, but I’ve heard some rumors that they’d be willing, so he’s on the list. He’s a lefty with slightly below average velocity, but he isn’t in that “crafty” category yet. He does lead with a slider and an outstanding changeup, which I think leads to some variance start to start. I’m not entirely sure what the Angels are ever doing, so I don’t know what they’d want or if the Royals could even match up, but they have to call on him if he’s actually out there.

Anthony Santander ($12.7 million)

I haven’t heard a word about Santander being on the block, but the Orioles are loaded with position player prospects, particularly outfielders. Santander has hit .249/.322/.464 the last two years, so he’s not a world-beater, but that’s good for a 121 wRC+, which would make him a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat in KC. He’s not great defensively, but he’s rated as fine the last two seasons. I think because of Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad knocking on the door, they’ll make Santander and hope to get back something to fill in some gaps. He’d be a nice fit with the Royals.

Clarke Schmidt ($2.6 million)

You’ll see his name pop up again in a newsletter at some point over the next few weeks, but I wonder if he wouldn’t be an interesting target for the Royals when they go to move someone. I think there’s some match with the Yankees. Schmidt is certainly not someone who projects as an arm at the top of the rotation, but he’s solid enough. He gives some innings, he limits walks, he doesn’t give up home runs and he utilizes a lot of pitches, which is something I like. I think there’s a case to simplify a repertoire, but I also love the ability to mix and match on any given day.

Jose Urquidy ($3.5 million)

I liked the idea of Urquidy more last year, but I think the acquisition cost is more in line with what the Royals should give up for him this year. He had a tough 2023 (it’s not over for him, I guess), but he posted a 3.74 ERA in 342 big league innings from 2019 through 2022. He’s not going to strike out a ton of hitters, but he’s also not going to kill you with walks. His out pitch is his changeup and while his sweeper got a ton of whiffs in 2023, I wonder if that led to some of his slight control issues.

Taylor Ward ($4.5 million)

Again, I don’t know what the Angels are doing. They waited forever for Ward to emerge after drafting him in the first round in 2015. He finally looked solid in 2021 and really broke out in 2022. He took a step back in 2023, but was still above average offensively. He’s fine defensively, doesn’t strike out a ton and walks a little bit. He makes good contact and can run a little bit. If the Royals are looking for steadier outfield production, they could do a lot worse than Ward.

Non-Tender Candidates

Inherently, this is a group of players who will not be without their warts. If they were sure things, they wouldn’t be candidates to be non-tendered. It’s a little harder to find players worth going after, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find some gold in here.

Adam Cimber ($3.2 million)

Cimber has made a living by striking out fewer hitters than you’d like and limiting walks. He had a shoulder injury in 2023 that ended his season in June, so health is an issue, but he’d absolutely be worth a flyer as a ground ball pitcher who gives a different look than anyone else in the bullpen.

James Kaprielian ($1.5 million)

The money isn’t an issue on Kaprielian, even for the A’s. But he was bad in 2023 and maybe they want to move on. His fastball velocity was down, but he gets swings and misses with it. He also gets whiffs with his slider. His other pitches were pretty much trash in 2023, though they hadn’t been prior to 2023, so maybe there’s something there to salvage. I’d absolutely take a flyer on him, though.

Eric Lauer ($5.2 million)

Lauer was on my list to acquire via trade last year after he posted a 3.47 ERA the two years prior. His velocity took a nosedive, though, from 93.3 MPH to 90.8 MPH and the results went with it. He did have a right shoulder impingement that sent him to the IL before he was optioned to AAA, so maybe that had something to do with it. If the velocity isn’t back, I wouldn’t even consider it, but if he’s throwing 92-93 again, he’d be worth a sign for sure. When he was good in 2022, it was because the fastball was good. If the Royals feel that’s back or feel they have a plan to get it back, he’s an easy decision to make.

Trevor Richards ($2.4 million)

The Royals need more strikeouts out of their bullpen and while the results haven’t been great for Richards, he does strike guys out. Also, as a fly ball pitcher, calling a big park home wouldn’t be the worst thing for him. He had a curve that worked well for him in 2021, but it got hit in 2022 and then he didn’t throw it at all in 2023, so I’m not sure where he is with that.

Lou Trivino ($4.1 million)

Trivino had Tommy John surgery about a month into last season, so this is a futures buy if the Yankees non-tender him, which I assume they will. He was good in 2021, struggled with the A’s but then played well with the Yankees after he was traded and now he’s coming back from injury. I’d take a shot here, maybe even on a two-year deal.

Ryan Yarbrough ($3.8 million)

Second verse, same as the first. Yarbrough looked pretty solid with the Royals once he found his footing and especially after he came back from the head injury. On a team in need of some innings, I think they’d welcome him back and I do think there’s a chance the Dodgers cut bait. He started off great for them, but got hit a bit as his time in LA went on. The Royals know what he brings to the table and I think they could use it.

I named 36 free agents last week. I’ve got 18 more players here. There are plenty of targets out there who can make the Royals better in 2024 and beyond.