Arizona Fall League Rosters Are Out
The Royals have an interesting group heading out to Arizona.
After being canceled in 2020 due to Covid, the Arizona Fall League is back. Rosters took a little longer to be announced than usual, probably because the minor league season took a little longer to finish than usual. I’ve always been especially clued in to the minor leagues, probably because the Royals have almost never been especially good at the big league level, but the Arizona Fall League is my favorite league. It’s an opportunity for guys each organization thinks can benefit from these additional games and opportunities against others like them.
The Royals roster was announced yesterday, and it’s mostly interesting, though there are a couple names that surprised me.
Asa Lacy
Just going down the list, I was pretty sure Asa Lacy would be there. He showed why he was picked as high as he was in some ways. Opponents had a hard time squaring him up with just 41 hits allowed in 52 innings. He also had a 33.3 percent strikeout rate, which is outstanding. But he walked 17.3 percent of batters he faced, which is absolutely terrible. He went down with a shoulder injury and didn’t come back. I think I saw that it was described that if he needed to, he could have pitched, but why risk anything? This is a chance for Lacy to get back on a mound competitively after getting a taste of the pros. It could be a really launching point for him into 2022. If he pitches well, he’ll be in camp with a legitimate shot to make the club (but I don’t think he will make it).
Luca Tresh
Tresh is surprising to me. He was the Royals 17th round pick, if you’ll recall and there was a question of whether or not he’d sign. He tore up rookie ball for six games before getting a taste of low-A with Columbia for another 10 games where he struggled, but the sample is so small for either that you can’t take anything from it. He’s a college guy, so he’s the right age for a lot of these other players, but the lack of experience is why this is so interesting. He might be a bit overmatched, but this tells me that they like what they have in him and would like to fast track his development and see if he can’t get to AA sometime in 2022. I think he’ll struggle a touch, but it’ll be good experience for him.
Zach Haake
Don’t forget that his last name is pronounced like “hockey.” I’m not sure why that’s important other than me reminding myself of it. The stuff has never been a question for Haake, but like Lacy, it’s about control. It’s actually been better than I expected. He had a walk rate of 10.4 percent which is higher than you want, but also that can work. Haake has a good fastball that can jump into the upper-90s but sits 93-95 or so. I really like his changeup and think that there’s a better slider in there somewhere. He missed time this year with an oblique injury, so this is likely about getting him some extra innings, but I find it interesting because he has a chance to get selected by another team in the Rule 5 draft and a good AFL will likely force the Royals hand to add him to the 40-man if they don’t want to lose him.
Stephen Woods Jr.
When the Royals selected Woods in the Rule 5 draft a couple year ago, I compared his numbers to a guy the Royals thought was ready for the big leagues to start 2020. He and Singer had pretty similar ones. Obviously there’s more to it than minor league statistics, but that’s a nice piece of clay to work with. It hasn’t worked out for Woods with the Royals so much, but they struck a deal to keep him. This year was a disaster for him. He had a 7.42 ERA and walked almost as many as he struck out. I wonder if the Royals are interested to see how he looks in a short inning role. The scouting reports all indicate that he could be a mid-90s guy and his curve is really good when it’s good. I think he’s a flyer for them, but if he can make it out of the bullpen, he has a chance to be useful.
Nathan Eaton
Eaton is a 2018 draft class member, so that puts him in elite company to start. Personally, I don’t see much interesting in his profile, but the Royals like his versatility and he did miss about a month with an injury this year. I think he’s filling out the roster for them in the AFL, but he has a chance to show that he’s more than organizational filler and can take that next step.
Jake Means
Jake is John’s brother, the pitcher for the Orioles and I’ve always had a personal feeling that he can get more out of his talent than a lot of other guys can. He has very real power and does a nice job of working the count and working a walk. I think sometimes he probably gets a little too deep into counts and that leads to strikeouts, but the approach seems to be there for the local kid. He’s a pretty perfect example of someone who has a chance to thrive with the Royals development team because he’s already shown an ability to locate his pitch and drive it. As a 25-year-old who has topped out at High-A to this point, getting to face some upper level pitching will be a nice test for him and hopefully can help him to get over that next hump and work his way toward the big leagues. Assuming nothing changes with Rule 5 eligibility in the new CBA, he’ll be eligible after the 2022 season, so the Royals will need to get some answers on him.
Seuly Matias
Seeing Matias on the list was a bit of a surprise at first, but I think the Royals just want him to keep his season going after missing so much time again this year. I wrote yesterday about the big prospects all bouncing back this year other than Matias, but he wasn’t a total failure. The power is obviously very real, but so are the swing and miss issues and he just doesn’t walk enough to balance it out. If he could add a bit more patience and cut some of the swing and miss, you could be looking at a Franmil Reyes type offensive piece, but there aren’t many guys who can get by with a walk rate below 9 percent and a strikeout rate above 35 percent.
The best of that bunch since 2015 to do that was Miguel Sano in 2020 and he hit .204/.278/.478. There’s some value in that, but just not enough. But the guy needs reps. My worry with him is the same as my worry with Haake. Right now, Matias is Rule 5 eligible (and has been for a couple years without being selected), but if he shows out against this competition, the Royals might be putting themselves in a position where they have to make a 40-man move to keep him. So that’s not great, but also he needs the at bats.
The Missing
I was surprised not to see Alec Marsh on this list, which concerns me a bit that he might not be healthy enough to throw. He was one of the pitching prospects I was most excited to see in the AFL this year. He could get added later, but for now, that’s something that has me slightly concerned. I thought Brewer Hicklen might get a shot as well. He started the year really poorly, but turned it on late for Northwest Arkansas. In his final 29 games, he hit .320/.436/.629. He is someone who could really take off next season. He has power and speed and a good handle on the zone, though he does strike out a lot. And after throwing just 68 innings this year, Austin Cox seemed like a decent candidate, though he’s also Rule 5 eligible and the Royals seem to have a pretty good handle on what he is, so maybe they just didn’t want to expose him there.
It all starts up on Wednesday with the Fall Stars Game on November 13 and the Championship game on November 20. Go Surprise Saguaros!
Which of those selected were in 2021 Spring Training? Is that a typical recipe for who the organization likes? I consider myself a serious fan of baseball and the royals and I don't recall what role the Arizona Fall League plays or who have been sent there in the past.
Hey David, You think Matias not being selected in the rule five draft the last couple years is a indication of where other teams view him? I understand there are complications (keeping him on roster, etc) so its not exactly cut and dry. But you could pick him and then work out a deal if Pirates, Rangers, whoever at the bottom of the food chain right now. Makes me just wonder if industry doesn't see it working with him. That said, there are probably 100 of these guys are the game, but people keep talking pretty highly of his power.