Thanks David, so happy to start to see a clearer plan now and some roster churn. I don’t even really care the return at this point. Some of these arms will work, some won’t and that’s fine. I will care a little more about the return for Barlow though. A little worried they try and trade Barlow specifically for a third baseman…which just get the best deal you can and not worry about a specific position. Does Garret have much trade value. One of these lefties probably get moved…but I’m just not sure which one has all that much value or you just moving a ehh bullpen arm for a ehh bullpen arm which is fine I guess.
I might be the only one not all that excited to see Greinke return….at least if it is a two year deal. And maybe that’s the hold up and the royals will wait him out on a one year deal. But for two…..he made it work last year but a lot of smoke and mirrors. The Royals are at least interesting this week. Better than most of the offseason.
I told you to be patient. Someday you'll learn haha. I don't know why you think they're targeting a third baseman for Barlow. I haven't heard that or seen anyone report that. I get the impression they're still asking for more than teams want to give up for him, but that tends to balance out quickly, just like the MAT deal did.
The Garrett market could actually be really interesting. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith and a couple other lefties are still out there and apparently the Matt Strahm deal is why. They want two years and $15 million or more. Garrett could be a very affordable alternative who is murder on lefties. I don't know what the market is, but I could see a few teams interested.
And lastly, on Greinke, I've been pretty vocal about being fine with them not paying him too much. He had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball among pitchers with 40+ innings. That's trouble to me. I'm fine with bringing him back at a fair price, but I'm not sure I'd expect a 3.68 ERA again from him.
I worry they are targeting a third baseman just because they don’t really have one and I don’t know if they really know what they are going to do over there. If it’s the best deal you can get so be it….but I thought I heard someone mention the Angels third baseman for him at one point. I’m glad they planted the flag with Witt, now please plant the flag with Melendez. I don’t care what position…just plant the flag and let him be the best he can be at it (prefer left or right field).
I decided to look for every player the Royals have moved on from this offseason.
Gabe Speier
Sebastian Rivero
Nate Webb
Jake Brentz
Brent Rooker
Wyatt Mills
Ryan O'Hearn
Michael Taylor
Adalberto Mondesi
If you include Greinke (and I know that will likely be reversed soon), that's 25% of the 40-man out the door AND they've overhauled the front office and on-field coaching staff.
And even with bringing Greinke back, it'll still likely end up being at last 25% because I think they're moving at least one more. Definitely transactional.
So the moves are happening! I don't believe either trade happens if Dayton was still the GM. As electric as a player Mondesi is, the key word is PLAYER! You not a player if not playing. Good luck to the lad. Michael A., from everything I heard, was a PROFESSIONAL! Hate to see him go, his skill set is what the Royals need in CF. And what happened to the adage of trades within the division? This Chapman signing is confusing. Most deals are consummated quickly, but maybe there is a medical issue? All the pitchers on the roster, I feel, will clear itself out with the new staff. I think a number of them will finally be sent packing. I, for one, am hoping better coaching will lead to more success. Sure can't be much worse than Eldred was!
Got an album for the day, Head East - Flat As A Pancake. My 2nd favorite album from the seventies. Thanks, as always, for your insight!
I said this on the radio yesterday, but I think Dayton Moore makes those specific trades in a vacuum, but he wouldn't be honest about where the team is, so he wouldn't make the trades in reality, if that makes sense. Taylor will be a tough loss defensively, but he's not a long-term answer obviously and they have a couple who could be and need to see what they have.
As for Chapman, from what I can gather, the physical wasn't even scheduled yet. Maybe he wasn't available to come in town, I don't know. Don't forget that Lyles took more than a week from it being reported to it being official.
So, who is your best guess for 3B on Opening Day? Lopez, assuming he's still here? Eaton? Is Garcia a realistic option with a strong spring or are we thinking more down the road on him? Anyone they might be targeting outside the org? (Please don't say Dozier. Please don't say Dozier... I know it sounds like I'm bagging on Dozier, but I'm not. Maybe he could have a role in this org if he puts it all together again, but I don't think it's at 3B.)
As of this exact moment, I'm going to say what you don't want me to say. But 48 hours ago, the answer was Mondesi, so that could obviously change. My guess is they sign someone like Josh Harrison or Matt Duffy and he's there for a bit. I know people who believe Garcia will be up quickly and shift Witt back to third, but maybe Garcia plays third? I don't really know. But I do know that whatever I say today could be very different by tomorrow.
Do you have any hope that Camargo could pan out, or is he a best-case utility guy? I don't know much about him, though I watched a highlight reel the other day that was kind of intriguing. I think it was Into The Fountains. What about a deal for Cavan Biggio? The Royals Reporter mentioned some media talk about that, but I have no idea if there's any fire with that smoke.
Camargo is a hell of a defender, but he hasn't hit since 2018 with the super happy fun ball. I'd be surprised if he's anything more than a utility guy. I saw some Blue Jays rumors, but I'm just not much of a fan of Biggio personally. If he's part of a deal, sure, but if he's the deal, pass.
For me I will always pair Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. It is a shame that Mondesi's roster spot on the WS team in 15 along with Omar Infante blocked Whit Merrifield who at that point likely proved in the minors that he could play at a comparable level as Infante and had, in retrospect, much higher upside than Mondesi had.
Oh I'd still say Mondesi has higher upside, no matter what the results are. Upside isn't always met. But Merrifield absolutely deserved the spot in 2015 and to start the season in 2017.
Mr. Lesky, I want to apologize in advance for the lengthy comment, but this is great stuff (your article, not my comment!).
First off, I always feel the adrenaline flowing when I know Spring Training is near. I consider myself a huge baseball nerd and the amount of quality content you've delivered during the off-season scratches that baseball "itch" for someone like me. I'm a relatively new subscriber to Inside the Crown, and this kind of stuff is a game-changer when I'm craving some baseball content in the middle of an NFL-dominated news cycle. I was actually producing "The Homestretch" with Sterling Holmes when you were a guest on the show, so that's how I found your work. That, and Twitter, of course. Anyways, thanks for your work!
Now, a quick Mondesi thought and a couple different questions:
I'm always going to be a Mondesi believer, and it pained me to see him go yesterday. A couple friends of mine used to work as bat boys and then on the equipment staff in the Royals locker room when we were still in college, and they all had great things to say about the super-friendly guy he is, on and off the field. Even though I have a personal grudge against big spenders like the Red Sox, I'm going to root for Mondesi to become the star-caliber player I think he can be. It just didn't work out, and it was time for the Royals to rid themselves of the constant "worry" that comes with Mondesi on the field. They're no longer handcuffed by him, if that makes sense, which is a positive thing moving forward.
- When it comes to Aroldis Chapman, is it normal for his signing to be unofficial this long? Just curious if it's a health concern or something else.
- Also, are you familiar with how one might be able to watch the World Baseball Classic? I definitely want to tune in to see Bobby Witt on the same team as Mike freakin' Trout.
- I'm anxious to learn what the potential opening day lineup might look like. Is MJ Melendez really going to be a leadoff hitter for years to come? I see him more as a 4 or 5 hole hitter, maybe even in the 2 spot given his ability to get on base. I know the lineup will feature MJ, BWJr, Sal, and Vinnie at the top. Is MJ leading off for lack of better options?
- Finally, when it comes to the starting rotation, what should we expect? I'm confident we can pencil in Singer at the top, Greinke if he re-signs, and probably Lyles based on the contract he signed. Other than that, I'm dumbfounded.
Is Keller staying in the pen? Will Lynch be an automatic? Needless to say, the starting staff worries me.
I LOVE the overhaul the organization has done to the pitching development/coaching staff, but how much can we really expect things to improve in year 1? Not sure you can elevate the pitching performance a ton, maybe there's just not enough talent there to begin with. That's my big question about this upcoming season, and no doubt what I'll have my eye on.
Overall, this offseason has encouraged me as a Royals fan. With the moves and changes they've made, I am optimistic for the first time in awhile. It feels like they have a PLAN! Finally! The young hitters and potential lineup gives me confidence, so I'm definitely going to have fun to watching them at the plate, but the Pitching staff is what I think we should really keep a watchful eye on.
Thanks your work again! And sorry about the laundry list of questions, I think I'm just anxious for Opening Day.
Thanks for reading, Kyle! I'll try to answer all of these for you.
Chapman: The signing could be delayed for so many reasons. Maybe they're working out contract details or maybe he couldn't get to KC for the physical. Lyles took awhile too. I don't think it's that big of a deal and I still anticipate it gets done, probably this week.
WBC: It's been six years, so I don't fully remember, but I think everything was televised on MLB Network and maybe ESPN. I'm sure it'll be easy to find when the time comes.
Opening Day Lineup: I'll get to this a lot more during spring, but I think they do like MJ at the top, at least for now. I'm not sure who the other real options are and they like the ability to take a walk at the top. I could see Edward Olivares or Maikel Garcia there eventually or maybe even Michael Massey, but I think they're comfortable with MJ.
Rotation: It’s absolutely Singer, Lyles and then a wide open competition. Add in Greinke if/when he signs too. But the rest will be among Bubic, Heasley, Keller, Kowar, Lynch, Yarbrough and Zerpa. I’d put good money on the majority of them getting starts at some point. I think maybe there could be some surprises too. I’ve heard Bowlan is throwing really well right now, so we’ll see.
With the new coaching staff, I think there’s a lot that can be accomplished fairly quickly. I think way too often about Bubic and his slider that he never once threw in a game. I think about Lynch and Heasley and the shape of their fastballs and Kowar and the mess that he is and I wonder how quickly a competent coaching staff can fix issues. These are all talented pitchers who simply never had the advantage of quality coaching. Now they should. Look at the Diamondbacks from 2021 to 2022 with Brent Strom. I think specifically about Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but going from a bad coach to a legitimately good one can be a big-time change and benefit.
I’m looking forward to this season because I totally agree with you. There’s actually a plan in place to evaluate what they have. I know a lot of people don’t know why JJ Picollo needs time to evaluate guys he’s been around for years, but think about most of these guys. Melendez played a position he’d never played before. Now he’s had a full offseason to work there. Pasquantino had half a season. Waters had less. Isbel played sporadically. Witt was jerked around between short and third. Massey came up in August. The pitching staff has never had a competent coaching staff. I think it’s fair to need to evaluate these things. I appreciate that they’re doing that.
Thank you for the insight. I often forget that most of the young hitters don’t even have a full season under their belt yet, except for BWJr. Very encouraging stuff. I’ll be locked in though, whatever happens!
Thanks David, so happy to start to see a clearer plan now and some roster churn. I don’t even really care the return at this point. Some of these arms will work, some won’t and that’s fine. I will care a little more about the return for Barlow though. A little worried they try and trade Barlow specifically for a third baseman…which just get the best deal you can and not worry about a specific position. Does Garret have much trade value. One of these lefties probably get moved…but I’m just not sure which one has all that much value or you just moving a ehh bullpen arm for a ehh bullpen arm which is fine I guess.
I might be the only one not all that excited to see Greinke return….at least if it is a two year deal. And maybe that’s the hold up and the royals will wait him out on a one year deal. But for two…..he made it work last year but a lot of smoke and mirrors. The Royals are at least interesting this week. Better than most of the offseason.
I told you to be patient. Someday you'll learn haha. I don't know why you think they're targeting a third baseman for Barlow. I haven't heard that or seen anyone report that. I get the impression they're still asking for more than teams want to give up for him, but that tends to balance out quickly, just like the MAT deal did.
The Garrett market could actually be really interesting. Andrew Chafin, Matt Moore, Will Smith and a couple other lefties are still out there and apparently the Matt Strahm deal is why. They want two years and $15 million or more. Garrett could be a very affordable alternative who is murder on lefties. I don't know what the market is, but I could see a few teams interested.
And lastly, on Greinke, I've been pretty vocal about being fine with them not paying him too much. He had the lowest strikeout rate in baseball among pitchers with 40+ innings. That's trouble to me. I'm fine with bringing him back at a fair price, but I'm not sure I'd expect a 3.68 ERA again from him.
I worry they are targeting a third baseman just because they don’t really have one and I don’t know if they really know what they are going to do over there. If it’s the best deal you can get so be it….but I thought I heard someone mention the Angels third baseman for him at one point. I’m glad they planted the flag with Witt, now please plant the flag with Melendez. I don’t care what position…just plant the flag and let him be the best he can be at it (prefer left or right field).
Did you listen to me with Soren yesterday? I said that it would be a mistake to do something like that. Not that they were going to do that.
I decided to look for every player the Royals have moved on from this offseason.
Gabe Speier
Sebastian Rivero
Nate Webb
Jake Brentz
Brent Rooker
Wyatt Mills
Ryan O'Hearn
Michael Taylor
Adalberto Mondesi
If you include Greinke (and I know that will likely be reversed soon), that's 25% of the 40-man out the door AND they've overhauled the front office and on-field coaching staff.
Transactional.
And even with bringing Greinke back, it'll still likely end up being at last 25% because I think they're moving at least one more. Definitely transactional.
So the moves are happening! I don't believe either trade happens if Dayton was still the GM. As electric as a player Mondesi is, the key word is PLAYER! You not a player if not playing. Good luck to the lad. Michael A., from everything I heard, was a PROFESSIONAL! Hate to see him go, his skill set is what the Royals need in CF. And what happened to the adage of trades within the division? This Chapman signing is confusing. Most deals are consummated quickly, but maybe there is a medical issue? All the pitchers on the roster, I feel, will clear itself out with the new staff. I think a number of them will finally be sent packing. I, for one, am hoping better coaching will lead to more success. Sure can't be much worse than Eldred was!
Got an album for the day, Head East - Flat As A Pancake. My 2nd favorite album from the seventies. Thanks, as always, for your insight!
I said this on the radio yesterday, but I think Dayton Moore makes those specific trades in a vacuum, but he wouldn't be honest about where the team is, so he wouldn't make the trades in reality, if that makes sense. Taylor will be a tough loss defensively, but he's not a long-term answer obviously and they have a couple who could be and need to see what they have.
As for Chapman, from what I can gather, the physical wasn't even scheduled yet. Maybe he wasn't available to come in town, I don't know. Don't forget that Lyles took more than a week from it being reported to it being official.
So, who is your best guess for 3B on Opening Day? Lopez, assuming he's still here? Eaton? Is Garcia a realistic option with a strong spring or are we thinking more down the road on him? Anyone they might be targeting outside the org? (Please don't say Dozier. Please don't say Dozier... I know it sounds like I'm bagging on Dozier, but I'm not. Maybe he could have a role in this org if he puts it all together again, but I don't think it's at 3B.)
As of this exact moment, I'm going to say what you don't want me to say. But 48 hours ago, the answer was Mondesi, so that could obviously change. My guess is they sign someone like Josh Harrison or Matt Duffy and he's there for a bit. I know people who believe Garcia will be up quickly and shift Witt back to third, but maybe Garcia plays third? I don't really know. But I do know that whatever I say today could be very different by tomorrow.
The real question is how quickly can Cayden Wallace advance.
Absolutely. But even the most aggressive timeline probably doesn't see him debuting until 2024.
Do you have any hope that Camargo could pan out, or is he a best-case utility guy? I don't know much about him, though I watched a highlight reel the other day that was kind of intriguing. I think it was Into The Fountains. What about a deal for Cavan Biggio? The Royals Reporter mentioned some media talk about that, but I have no idea if there's any fire with that smoke.
Camargo is a hell of a defender, but he hasn't hit since 2018 with the super happy fun ball. I'd be surprised if he's anything more than a utility guy. I saw some Blue Jays rumors, but I'm just not much of a fan of Biggio personally. If he's part of a deal, sure, but if he's the deal, pass.
For me I will always pair Mondesi and Whit Merrifield. It is a shame that Mondesi's roster spot on the WS team in 15 along with Omar Infante blocked Whit Merrifield who at that point likely proved in the minors that he could play at a comparable level as Infante and had, in retrospect, much higher upside than Mondesi had.
Oh I'd still say Mondesi has higher upside, no matter what the results are. Upside isn't always met. But Merrifield absolutely deserved the spot in 2015 and to start the season in 2017.
Mr. Lesky, I want to apologize in advance for the lengthy comment, but this is great stuff (your article, not my comment!).
First off, I always feel the adrenaline flowing when I know Spring Training is near. I consider myself a huge baseball nerd and the amount of quality content you've delivered during the off-season scratches that baseball "itch" for someone like me. I'm a relatively new subscriber to Inside the Crown, and this kind of stuff is a game-changer when I'm craving some baseball content in the middle of an NFL-dominated news cycle. I was actually producing "The Homestretch" with Sterling Holmes when you were a guest on the show, so that's how I found your work. That, and Twitter, of course. Anyways, thanks for your work!
Now, a quick Mondesi thought and a couple different questions:
I'm always going to be a Mondesi believer, and it pained me to see him go yesterday. A couple friends of mine used to work as bat boys and then on the equipment staff in the Royals locker room when we were still in college, and they all had great things to say about the super-friendly guy he is, on and off the field. Even though I have a personal grudge against big spenders like the Red Sox, I'm going to root for Mondesi to become the star-caliber player I think he can be. It just didn't work out, and it was time for the Royals to rid themselves of the constant "worry" that comes with Mondesi on the field. They're no longer handcuffed by him, if that makes sense, which is a positive thing moving forward.
- When it comes to Aroldis Chapman, is it normal for his signing to be unofficial this long? Just curious if it's a health concern or something else.
- Also, are you familiar with how one might be able to watch the World Baseball Classic? I definitely want to tune in to see Bobby Witt on the same team as Mike freakin' Trout.
- I'm anxious to learn what the potential opening day lineup might look like. Is MJ Melendez really going to be a leadoff hitter for years to come? I see him more as a 4 or 5 hole hitter, maybe even in the 2 spot given his ability to get on base. I know the lineup will feature MJ, BWJr, Sal, and Vinnie at the top. Is MJ leading off for lack of better options?
- Finally, when it comes to the starting rotation, what should we expect? I'm confident we can pencil in Singer at the top, Greinke if he re-signs, and probably Lyles based on the contract he signed. Other than that, I'm dumbfounded.
Is Keller staying in the pen? Will Lynch be an automatic? Needless to say, the starting staff worries me.
I LOVE the overhaul the organization has done to the pitching development/coaching staff, but how much can we really expect things to improve in year 1? Not sure you can elevate the pitching performance a ton, maybe there's just not enough talent there to begin with. That's my big question about this upcoming season, and no doubt what I'll have my eye on.
Overall, this offseason has encouraged me as a Royals fan. With the moves and changes they've made, I am optimistic for the first time in awhile. It feels like they have a PLAN! Finally! The young hitters and potential lineup gives me confidence, so I'm definitely going to have fun to watching them at the plate, but the Pitching staff is what I think we should really keep a watchful eye on.
Thanks your work again! And sorry about the laundry list of questions, I think I'm just anxious for Opening Day.
Thanks for reading, Kyle! I'll try to answer all of these for you.
Chapman: The signing could be delayed for so many reasons. Maybe they're working out contract details or maybe he couldn't get to KC for the physical. Lyles took awhile too. I don't think it's that big of a deal and I still anticipate it gets done, probably this week.
WBC: It's been six years, so I don't fully remember, but I think everything was televised on MLB Network and maybe ESPN. I'm sure it'll be easy to find when the time comes.
Opening Day Lineup: I'll get to this a lot more during spring, but I think they do like MJ at the top, at least for now. I'm not sure who the other real options are and they like the ability to take a walk at the top. I could see Edward Olivares or Maikel Garcia there eventually or maybe even Michael Massey, but I think they're comfortable with MJ.
Rotation: It’s absolutely Singer, Lyles and then a wide open competition. Add in Greinke if/when he signs too. But the rest will be among Bubic, Heasley, Keller, Kowar, Lynch, Yarbrough and Zerpa. I’d put good money on the majority of them getting starts at some point. I think maybe there could be some surprises too. I’ve heard Bowlan is throwing really well right now, so we’ll see.
With the new coaching staff, I think there’s a lot that can be accomplished fairly quickly. I think way too often about Bubic and his slider that he never once threw in a game. I think about Lynch and Heasley and the shape of their fastballs and Kowar and the mess that he is and I wonder how quickly a competent coaching staff can fix issues. These are all talented pitchers who simply never had the advantage of quality coaching. Now they should. Look at the Diamondbacks from 2021 to 2022 with Brent Strom. I think specifically about Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, but going from a bad coach to a legitimately good one can be a big-time change and benefit.
I’m looking forward to this season because I totally agree with you. There’s actually a plan in place to evaluate what they have. I know a lot of people don’t know why JJ Picollo needs time to evaluate guys he’s been around for years, but think about most of these guys. Melendez played a position he’d never played before. Now he’s had a full offseason to work there. Pasquantino had half a season. Waters had less. Isbel played sporadically. Witt was jerked around between short and third. Massey came up in August. The pitching staff has never had a competent coaching staff. I think it’s fair to need to evaluate these things. I appreciate that they’re doing that.
Thank you for the insight. I often forget that most of the young hitters don’t even have a full season under their belt yet, except for BWJr. Very encouraging stuff. I’ll be locked in though, whatever happens!