So winning the division is a bit premature. Obviously, I know you don’t think that but I’m glad people are excited. To start, I do appreciate what they have done. They brought in actual MLB pitchers and at least can compete on the pitching side much better.
I’m a bit bummed you see the odds on a Melendez trade down now. To be honest, I’ve got the sense the last week they are good with what they have. Let me start by saying….There is still time so, yes, it is still very much in play. But this roster hasn’t fit for two years. It still doesn’t exactly fit…which is why I’ve been waiting for them to move on from a younger guy. Get off the love for your own guys yet. Where do we honestly think Salvy is going to play? I’d be willing to bet he’s at first much more going forward based on age. So if Melendez is the DH….where is Vinny..etc. It’s a little while i was intrigued by the Vinny/Lazardo deal. Sounds like it was way over-reported but moving a first baseman who I think will (but honestly has too) hit isn’t the worst thing for a potential ace. Anyway, my only point is they are closer to making this roster fit but still feel like they need to move a Massey, Garcia, MJ, Loftin…someone to make this thing work better yet. I’m sure you sell it as depth….which fine I guess.
And if we are being honest. How do you in the central this year? A rotation of Luzardo/Ragans/Lugo/Wacha/Singer would be the best rotation in the division. If we are doing this….why not? Fun to dream, fun to dream.
I would love to have Luzardo, and there would be plenty of offseason left to replace Vinnie's bat, but I'm not sure they could (though he's definitely a question mark). I don't know that it would unquestionably be the best rotation in the division because there are still plenty of questions, but it's better than what they have today and what they have today is worlds better than what they had last year. Still, though, I have a tough time seeing how they consistently score runs without a Vinnie type bat in the middle. I know they struggled with him, but that was also before BWJ found his footing and before Garcia helped stabilize the top of the lineup.
If they don't make a single move, I think you can see a pretty easy path to this position player roster:
Salvador Perez
Freddy Fermin
Vinnie Pasquantino
Michael Massey
Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr.
Nick Loftin
Garrett Hampson
MJ Melendez
Kyle Isbel
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velazquez
Drew Waters
Maybe you flip Waters for Blanco or something, but that doesn't matter too terribly much. I would bet Salvy catches 80-90 games, Fermin the rest and Salvy ends up playing 120 or so total. He isn't the bat he was in 2021, so he doesn't need to be in the lineup 160 times.
I see the odds of an MJ trade down, but I also am not deleting my draft. I'd still put it at better than 50/50. I just won't be as surprised if it doesn't happen.
I also found the the Vinny trade intriguing bc as Lesky alludes too, he is a question mark. I worry how much everyone assumes he is a given beast. Don't get me wrong, I love the pasquatch, but a top tier controllable starter is tempting
I was also intrigued with the Luzardo for Vinnie talk. I heard a good point that at least the Royals were willing to have that conversation. They found out the cost and were not willing to pay it. That to me is progress. I'm curious about your thoughts on that potential trade. I was torn. 5 years of Vinnie for 3 years of Luzardo but DH for SP. I finally talked myself into they should have done it if it was a real option.
I am also thrilled that every signing (almost) has had a corresponding trade of someone at the bottom of our 40 man roster. Watching anything come back and help minor league depth is fantastic. And this is a new development staff. I have to trust that they know what they are getting and think they can advance that player. So far, I have not seen anyone traded that we didn't think had a chance to be DFA'd at the Rule 5 draft time. This also feels like real progress. My best guess is JJ has a list of who called about specific players in the past and when the time comes he reaches back out to see if they are still interested. The list could be years old but he has one and it is working.
I think there are strong arguments to the yes and no sides of that trade. On one hand, Luzardo has the looks of a legitimate number two, if not an ace. On the other hand, how many hitters are capable of walking more than they strike out and doing it with power? I don't know that there's a wrong answer. I side with keeping Vinnie, but I don't feel *that* strongly about it.
Does make me wonder if you don’t do that….you feel pretty good about signing BWJ. I mean, if you know you only have 4-5 more years with BWJ because he isn’t signing….I’d be more inclined to take on Luzardo and at least think…we’ll ok…we have the pitching piece with (hopefully) Wright in the fold next year. The window is now kind of thing. It didn’t happen but fun to think about. Been a while since Royals fans could even think this way.
They absolutely have room and definitely need the flowing locks. I actually was just texting someone this morning if they've got any info and haven't heard back, but I also haven't heard they aren't interested anymore.
Agree with you on most everything you said. What is interesting to me, is that yeah, they might just be the 4th best team in the division. But, that could be the 4th place team in a very tight division (perhaps winning 74 games). With a few lucky breaks, they actually could end up winning the division (again in a very tight race). Maybe they win it with like 84 wins, but that still gets you to the playoffs (I know, this is a little crazy to even think about). But, once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. The best team doesn't always win the World Series (ask the Dodgers). I know this all sounds crazy, but it's the offseason, that's the time to dream...
It's definitely the time to dream! I've said this before, I think, but I generally believe a team can be up to around 10 wins +/- their true talent in a given season. So if I say I'm predicting 77 wins, for example, that means I think it can go south to 67 wins or north to 87. Now, last year, I think I had them at 75, so that wasn't accurate, which happens. But if this team is a 75-win team, sure, they can get to 85. The only thing I'll say about 84 making it is that it obviously did in the National League, but I'm not so sure it does in the AL other than potentially winning a very mediocre division. The AL East might have all five teams at .500 or better and you've got the Rangers and Astros in the AL West along with the Mariners, who have so much pitching talent that they should be able to get there too. I think it's probably more like 87 wins needed.
It’s nice to feel optimistic for a change! I’m not a fan of signing guys with the thought of what they can get back at the deadline and I never will be. Yes, ragans was a pleasant surprise but it seems that generally all they get back are other teams dead weight and they have more than enough of that already. I keep hearing about how they should trade Garcia because his power numbers aren’t what you want from a 3rd baseman. Who cares? Shortstop has always been seen as a position with lower power expectations. If Bobby Witt has above average power-which he does, does it really matter where the production comes from? Garcia has many of the tools that the Royals covet. Big deal if he doesn’t go deep as often as what you expect from a “traditional” 3rd baseman. Witt picks him up. Massey is a slick fielder with good pop, I believe he’s just scratching the surface of his ability. I truly believe that the infield of pasquantino, Massey, Witt and Garcia is a good plan. I sure do like the rotation upgrades. I’m not as down on Jordan Lyles as most people. I watched almost all of his starts and he just puzzled me. He’d start off great, run into a wall for an inning then come out the next inning like nothing ever happened. I would love to see what his ERA would be if you took out that one big inning of each game. No matter what, I’m convinced that I’ll get more satisfaction out of what I pay to watch them next season than I did this one.
They obviously weren't signing these players with the intention of flipping them at the deadline, but they'd be naive to not think about that possibility. You have to be thinking months, if not years, ahead as a big league general manager.
The argument for trading Garcia, to me anyway, is less about not having enough power to handle third and more about total value. Because I've always said that positional value is all well and good, but if you're getting production around the field, who really cares where it's coming from? The truth is, though, that the Royals could replace Garcia relatively easily even if it is at a defensive loss with Loftin and get more value for him from a team who sees him as a vital cog at shortstop. If he's on the team next year, great. If he's not and it's because he was part of a deal that brought back something that helps the team fit together even better, that's great too, in my opinion.
I believe the LH bat will be a corner outfielder to spell Renfroe in RF occasionally and deepen the bench. It would also give Waters some competition. Waters has options and JJ has mentioned not waiting on those guys with options. I just don’t feel they’ll be trading Melendez, Massey, or Isbel.
JJ did not make it seem like that was the intention of a lefty bat. Because if it is, they already have MJ and Waters as lefty corner bats. I agree they won't be waiting on guys with options, but I didn't get the impression he's looking for a guy to spell Renfroe.
It may not be the players I wanted, but I do appreciate that the Royals are doing something. I am excited for the new season...as I always am no matter who we have on the roster. Happy holidays, David.
Really appreciated this one! I also fall into the "who cares about the reasoning" camp. I don't believe the stadium is the Only reason and Its exciting regardless! The more I look at this roster and what's being said, the more I think there has to be a more significant trade coming right? Anne said specifically in her most recent article they're looking at versatile LH hitting infielders?? To go with what JJ said, they are clearly not done because the pieces don't fit in my opinion. Our outfield and infield are already full, especially if you include Loftin and Gentry. Looking forward to see what happens next!
After the litany of FA deals I immediately thought Sherman might be opening the wallet wider to get a new stadium, but if that was the case - good!
And who woulda thunk they could get a legit starter for Chappy - not many when they made the trade at least. I am sure even JJ thinks he hit the lotto on this one
But yes, kudos to JJ, I hope he takes a week or so off for the holidays after giving us fans so many nice presents.
Enjoying your insight and writing as always - Happy Holidays to you and the growing family!
It's also possible that there are multiple reasons they're spending. Maybe they see fan support for a stadium as a nice secondary benefit to winning. Or winning as a secondary benefit to fan support for the vote. But yeah, I don't really care why as long as they're doing it.
I’m very glad I subscribe to your newsletter than trying to keep up with the changes myself!! Plus facts vs feelings.
All of these player options makes me think that might be what it takes to get these veterans here at a reasonable price. At their ages, they know anything can happen and it gives security. Or maybe this is the trend now in MLB?
Leaning to the player is what bad teams have to do. They can do that with more money, more years or by giving them the upper hand. I don't know if it's new or not, but it's not going away.
So winning the division is a bit premature. Obviously, I know you don’t think that but I’m glad people are excited. To start, I do appreciate what they have done. They brought in actual MLB pitchers and at least can compete on the pitching side much better.
I’m a bit bummed you see the odds on a Melendez trade down now. To be honest, I’ve got the sense the last week they are good with what they have. Let me start by saying….There is still time so, yes, it is still very much in play. But this roster hasn’t fit for two years. It still doesn’t exactly fit…which is why I’ve been waiting for them to move on from a younger guy. Get off the love for your own guys yet. Where do we honestly think Salvy is going to play? I’d be willing to bet he’s at first much more going forward based on age. So if Melendez is the DH….where is Vinny..etc. It’s a little while i was intrigued by the Vinny/Lazardo deal. Sounds like it was way over-reported but moving a first baseman who I think will (but honestly has too) hit isn’t the worst thing for a potential ace. Anyway, my only point is they are closer to making this roster fit but still feel like they need to move a Massey, Garcia, MJ, Loftin…someone to make this thing work better yet. I’m sure you sell it as depth….which fine I guess.
And if we are being honest. How do you in the central this year? A rotation of Luzardo/Ragans/Lugo/Wacha/Singer would be the best rotation in the division. If we are doing this….why not? Fun to dream, fun to dream.
I would love to have Luzardo, and there would be plenty of offseason left to replace Vinnie's bat, but I'm not sure they could (though he's definitely a question mark). I don't know that it would unquestionably be the best rotation in the division because there are still plenty of questions, but it's better than what they have today and what they have today is worlds better than what they had last year. Still, though, I have a tough time seeing how they consistently score runs without a Vinnie type bat in the middle. I know they struggled with him, but that was also before BWJ found his footing and before Garcia helped stabilize the top of the lineup.
If they don't make a single move, I think you can see a pretty easy path to this position player roster:
Salvador Perez
Freddy Fermin
Vinnie Pasquantino
Michael Massey
Maikel Garcia
Bobby Witt Jr.
Nick Loftin
Garrett Hampson
MJ Melendez
Kyle Isbel
Hunter Renfroe
Nelson Velazquez
Drew Waters
Maybe you flip Waters for Blanco or something, but that doesn't matter too terribly much. I would bet Salvy catches 80-90 games, Fermin the rest and Salvy ends up playing 120 or so total. He isn't the bat he was in 2021, so he doesn't need to be in the lineup 160 times.
I see the odds of an MJ trade down, but I also am not deleting my draft. I'd still put it at better than 50/50. I just won't be as surprised if it doesn't happen.
So friendly wager on starting lineup near end of spring training?
I also found the the Vinny trade intriguing bc as Lesky alludes too, he is a question mark. I worry how much everyone assumes he is a given beast. Don't get me wrong, I love the pasquatch, but a top tier controllable starter is tempting
(whoops I should read all comments before posting)
I was also intrigued with the Luzardo for Vinnie talk. I heard a good point that at least the Royals were willing to have that conversation. They found out the cost and were not willing to pay it. That to me is progress. I'm curious about your thoughts on that potential trade. I was torn. 5 years of Vinnie for 3 years of Luzardo but DH for SP. I finally talked myself into they should have done it if it was a real option.
I am also thrilled that every signing (almost) has had a corresponding trade of someone at the bottom of our 40 man roster. Watching anything come back and help minor league depth is fantastic. And this is a new development staff. I have to trust that they know what they are getting and think they can advance that player. So far, I have not seen anyone traded that we didn't think had a chance to be DFA'd at the Rule 5 draft time. This also feels like real progress. My best guess is JJ has a list of who called about specific players in the past and when the time comes he reaches back out to see if they are still interested. The list could be years old but he has one and it is working.
I think there are strong arguments to the yes and no sides of that trade. On one hand, Luzardo has the looks of a legitimate number two, if not an ace. On the other hand, how many hitters are capable of walking more than they strike out and doing it with power? I don't know that there's a wrong answer. I side with keeping Vinnie, but I don't feel *that* strongly about it.
Does make me wonder if you don’t do that….you feel pretty good about signing BWJ. I mean, if you know you only have 4-5 more years with BWJ because he isn’t signing….I’d be more inclined to take on Luzardo and at least think…we’ll ok…we have the pitching piece with (hopefully) Wright in the fold next year. The window is now kind of thing. It didn’t happen but fun to think about. Been a while since Royals fans could even think this way.
They definitely feel pretty good about signing BWJ. At some point, I hope you'll start believing me on things when they keep coming true!
Any smoke still on Ryne Stanek? The bullpen is short on flowing locks… (jk) Would they have room - or do you think the bullpen is done?
They absolutely have room and definitely need the flowing locks. I actually was just texting someone this morning if they've got any info and haven't heard back, but I also haven't heard they aren't interested anymore.
Agree with you on most everything you said. What is interesting to me, is that yeah, they might just be the 4th best team in the division. But, that could be the 4th place team in a very tight division (perhaps winning 74 games). With a few lucky breaks, they actually could end up winning the division (again in a very tight race). Maybe they win it with like 84 wins, but that still gets you to the playoffs (I know, this is a little crazy to even think about). But, once you're in the playoffs, anything can happen. The best team doesn't always win the World Series (ask the Dodgers). I know this all sounds crazy, but it's the offseason, that's the time to dream...
It's definitely the time to dream! I've said this before, I think, but I generally believe a team can be up to around 10 wins +/- their true talent in a given season. So if I say I'm predicting 77 wins, for example, that means I think it can go south to 67 wins or north to 87. Now, last year, I think I had them at 75, so that wasn't accurate, which happens. But if this team is a 75-win team, sure, they can get to 85. The only thing I'll say about 84 making it is that it obviously did in the National League, but I'm not so sure it does in the AL other than potentially winning a very mediocre division. The AL East might have all five teams at .500 or better and you've got the Rangers and Astros in the AL West along with the Mariners, who have so much pitching talent that they should be able to get there too. I think it's probably more like 87 wins needed.
It’s nice to feel optimistic for a change! I’m not a fan of signing guys with the thought of what they can get back at the deadline and I never will be. Yes, ragans was a pleasant surprise but it seems that generally all they get back are other teams dead weight and they have more than enough of that already. I keep hearing about how they should trade Garcia because his power numbers aren’t what you want from a 3rd baseman. Who cares? Shortstop has always been seen as a position with lower power expectations. If Bobby Witt has above average power-which he does, does it really matter where the production comes from? Garcia has many of the tools that the Royals covet. Big deal if he doesn’t go deep as often as what you expect from a “traditional” 3rd baseman. Witt picks him up. Massey is a slick fielder with good pop, I believe he’s just scratching the surface of his ability. I truly believe that the infield of pasquantino, Massey, Witt and Garcia is a good plan. I sure do like the rotation upgrades. I’m not as down on Jordan Lyles as most people. I watched almost all of his starts and he just puzzled me. He’d start off great, run into a wall for an inning then come out the next inning like nothing ever happened. I would love to see what his ERA would be if you took out that one big inning of each game. No matter what, I’m convinced that I’ll get more satisfaction out of what I pay to watch them next season than I did this one.
They obviously weren't signing these players with the intention of flipping them at the deadline, but they'd be naive to not think about that possibility. You have to be thinking months, if not years, ahead as a big league general manager.
The argument for trading Garcia, to me anyway, is less about not having enough power to handle third and more about total value. Because I've always said that positional value is all well and good, but if you're getting production around the field, who really cares where it's coming from? The truth is, though, that the Royals could replace Garcia relatively easily even if it is at a defensive loss with Loftin and get more value for him from a team who sees him as a vital cog at shortstop. If he's on the team next year, great. If he's not and it's because he was part of a deal that brought back something that helps the team fit together even better, that's great too, in my opinion.
I noticed the same tendency with Lyles! Perhaps, it is a lack of concentration during the middle innings?
I believe the LH bat will be a corner outfielder to spell Renfroe in RF occasionally and deepen the bench. It would also give Waters some competition. Waters has options and JJ has mentioned not waiting on those guys with options. I just don’t feel they’ll be trading Melendez, Massey, or Isbel.
JJ did not make it seem like that was the intention of a lefty bat. Because if it is, they already have MJ and Waters as lefty corner bats. I agree they won't be waiting on guys with options, but I didn't get the impression he's looking for a guy to spell Renfroe.
Guess we’ll find out soon enough. It’s been a wild 10 days for sure.
Maybe I can start looking at the standings instead of just watching individual performances again... like before Yordano left us.
It may not be the players I wanted, but I do appreciate that the Royals are doing something. I am excited for the new season...as I always am no matter who we have on the roster. Happy holidays, David.
Really appreciated this one! I also fall into the "who cares about the reasoning" camp. I don't believe the stadium is the Only reason and Its exciting regardless! The more I look at this roster and what's being said, the more I think there has to be a more significant trade coming right? Anne said specifically in her most recent article they're looking at versatile LH hitting infielders?? To go with what JJ said, they are clearly not done because the pieces don't fit in my opinion. Our outfield and infield are already full, especially if you include Loftin and Gentry. Looking forward to see what happens next!
Yeah, Anne's article was a little different than what JJ said on the radio, which I think is interesting. I definitely don't think they're done.
After the litany of FA deals I immediately thought Sherman might be opening the wallet wider to get a new stadium, but if that was the case - good!
And who woulda thunk they could get a legit starter for Chappy - not many when they made the trade at least. I am sure even JJ thinks he hit the lotto on this one
But yes, kudos to JJ, I hope he takes a week or so off for the holidays after giving us fans so many nice presents.
Enjoying your insight and writing as always - Happy Holidays to you and the growing family!
It's also possible that there are multiple reasons they're spending. Maybe they see fan support for a stadium as a nice secondary benefit to winning. Or winning as a secondary benefit to fan support for the vote. But yeah, I don't really care why as long as they're doing it.
Happy holidays to you too!
I’m very glad I subscribe to your newsletter than trying to keep up with the changes myself!! Plus facts vs feelings.
All of these player options makes me think that might be what it takes to get these veterans here at a reasonable price. At their ages, they know anything can happen and it gives security. Or maybe this is the trend now in MLB?
Leaning to the player is what bad teams have to do. They can do that with more money, more years or by giving them the upper hand. I don't know if it's new or not, but it's not going away.