You're right, David. Those are some bold predictions!
I have more confidence in your predictions regarding Vinnie and Zack than any of the others.
I can see BWJ stealing 30 bases and a whole lot more. But I'm not certain that he's a 30 HR guy. I think he will be in another couple of years but not quite yet.
If Witt's lower body is healthy, I think he has way more than enough power to get there. The exit velocities, barrel rates and launch angles all show he can absolutely get there.
I can't help but flash back to early in Billy Butler's career when he was hitting all those doubles and everyone was confidently predicting they would turn into HR's as he got older and stronger. As we know now he never hit 30 HR and only exceeded 20 in two seasons.
Yes I'm confident that BWJ has significantly more power potential than Butler did. But does he have 30 HR power right now, today? Not just power potential but actual results? I certainly hope you're right but I have my doubts.
Hard to hit homers when you hit as few balls in the air as Butler did. The big difference is the shape of the batted balls. Witt may not get there, but if we had the data today that we had then, nobody ever would have actually thought Butler's doubles would turn into that many home runs.
Every year my Buddy and I write on the leg of a wooden work bench in my basement what we think the Royals record will be. Our perditions are fortified with a couple of pours of Bourbon. Then after the season we check back and realize how wildly wrong we always seem to be. The result is often soothed with a couple of more pours. Royals 75 wins in 2023. Now I can be wildly wrong here and in my basement. Cheers.
As the other guy scrawling predictions onto the work bench, I hereby invoke the classic Price is Right jerk move with a win prediction of, yes, 72. Bottoms up!
I always remember being in the car headed home from an Opening Day loss, and Bill Grigsby on the radio saying, "it's okay, everyone, they could still go 161-1." Opening Day can be optimistic, even with a loss! :-)
When I saw the headline, before I even read your article I figured that your bold prediction would be for the Royals to win 75 this year. I wasn't too far off. That would be my own bold prediction but I don't have much confidence in it.
Will they be buyers or sellers this year, and when? Break out that crystal ball, throw it away, and make a totally random guess.
Wow, I completely missed that Staumont got sent down to start the year. Had he not pitched very well over the spring. I’m surprised by that only because Carlos Hernandez appears to be ahead of him in the eyes of the coaching staff huh. As you mentioned….wonder if he becomes more of a trade chip this season then. I think it’s all a good thing….just surprised they see more in Hernandez right now than Staumont.
I think we just have to get used to big league caliber pitchers not in the big leagues. They've built up quite a bit of depth and, as I've written, they see their big league bullpen as bigger than eight pitchers. That means someone (someones) will need to be in AAA here and there throughout the season. Staumont has struggled some with control in spite of having a really good spring. I appreciate them looking at the whole picture and not just Cactus League numbers. Hernandez's stuff has looked SO good that I'm not sure they had a choice. The truth is that all the optioned pitchers will very likely be back and maybe many before April ends.
I'm always bullish on the Royals to start a season so I'll bump the wins up to 76 or 77. They will look better than last year and will actually do things at the trade deadline instead of just do nothing. We also will be Top 15(read this as 13-15) in strikeouts from the pitchers and may improve a bit in terms of strikeouts from the hitters (I had forgotten we were pretty good at not striking out last year).
That's a good one. I'm going to say it drops by about three-quarters of a percent. They were at 9.4% last year, so let's say 8.6%, which in 2022 was still bottom 10, but previously has been more middle of the road. Where it needs to be? I think as long as they're middle of the pack, I'm happy.
I'm predicting a little closer to 500 ball than you. I think they will be right on the 500 number all year. I think a big difference with this club especially this season will be that our new coaching staff ,mainly Matt combined with JJ will be less tolerant with players that aren't performing. I don't think they will be hesitant to send a guy down that's 1for 17 ,hitting 168 or a pitcher that's 0-4 with 14 walks and a 7 Era. I think they will be very TRANSACTIONAL . Sending guys down and bringing guys up. Keeping I -29 very busy all season. I think Reyes will be huge for us early on. But two guys I don't think will be around very long because of their struggles at the plate. Lopez and Dozier. Also I think Gentry will be up before All star break. Hopefully Pratto as well. Bullpen will be just fine. But starting rotation will be our biggest issue all year. Just ZERO arms. Singer not enough. Definitely don't think he will even come close to duplicating last year. I think it's between the ears with Brady. Hes very hot headed, much like a very young Grenke. Zacks issues during his first three or 4 seasons here were 85 percent mental. Looking forward to this year and seeing what changes this new staff brings. Even in our minor league system, which is where I think we will notice biggest difference the quickest.
I hope all of this happens, except the Greinke part. Ironically, I just have this gut feeling Greinke could have a surprisingly good year. Nothing to support it, just a feeling, and I've been dead wrong before, but that is my bold Royals prediction. Although, as much as I love Zack, I would gladly concede that one to you if you're right about Vinnie P., BWJ, and Singer.
Yeah, I think there's at least a non-zero chance that Greinke just never struggles and it doesn't matter how many strikeouts he gets. I hope I'm way off.
When you were predicting win total, did you factor in fewer games against AL Central teams? I'm assuming the schedule will be harder with fewer games against the Tigers, for example.
I hope you're right since that win total would represent clear progress. I'm more pessimistic, though, because I just don't think the starting pitching is there.
On last night's Kauffman Corner, Soren said he thinks you told him that Bobby Witt has told the team that he wants to play short. I think Soren was suggesting that it might tie into whether or not Witt would consider staying with the Royals if he can't play his preferred position. Anyway, what are your thoughts on the matter? Is Witt a lock at stay at short? If he's bad defensively (again), will he agree to move? Where do Garcia and Lopez fit into all this since it seems they are clearly better defensively? If the chances are remote that Witt would ever since a long-term deal, maybe commit to Garcia at short and dangle Witt in trade?
I think maybe we had some wires crossed. I don't know if Witt told them that or not, but I thought maybe he would have. I don't think he's a lock at all, but I think that *if* shortstop is what he wants to play, the first part of this season is to either figure out if he can or prove to him that he can't. I think he will move if it comes to that.
That said, I think the idea of Garcia being the guy to dangle Witt in a trade is getting WAY too ahead of ourselves. Many people like him, but just as many see him as a utility guy. And I think we have a pretty good idea that's what Lopez truly is.
You're right, David. Those are some bold predictions!
I have more confidence in your predictions regarding Vinnie and Zack than any of the others.
I can see BWJ stealing 30 bases and a whole lot more. But I'm not certain that he's a 30 HR guy. I think he will be in another couple of years but not quite yet.
If Witt's lower body is healthy, I think he has way more than enough power to get there. The exit velocities, barrel rates and launch angles all show he can absolutely get there.
I can't help but flash back to early in Billy Butler's career when he was hitting all those doubles and everyone was confidently predicting they would turn into HR's as he got older and stronger. As we know now he never hit 30 HR and only exceeded 20 in two seasons.
Yes I'm confident that BWJ has significantly more power potential than Butler did. But does he have 30 HR power right now, today? Not just power potential but actual results? I certainly hope you're right but I have my doubts.
Hard to hit homers when you hit as few balls in the air as Butler did. The big difference is the shape of the batted balls. Witt may not get there, but if we had the data today that we had then, nobody ever would have actually thought Butler's doubles would turn into that many home runs.
Every year my Buddy and I write on the leg of a wooden work bench in my basement what we think the Royals record will be. Our perditions are fortified with a couple of pours of Bourbon. Then after the season we check back and realize how wildly wrong we always seem to be. The result is often soothed with a couple of more pours. Royals 75 wins in 2023. Now I can be wildly wrong here and in my basement. Cheers.
Hey, if you're wrong, you get a little extra bourbon. If you're right, you can celebrate with some extra bourbon.
As the other guy scrawling predictions onto the work bench, I hereby invoke the classic Price is Right jerk move with a win prediction of, yes, 72. Bottoms up!
Is this the reverse? The closest without going under haha?
Oh. Yeah, I guess that is reversed. Just so you know, if we get a win on opening day, Gary will up his prediction by twenty wins.
That's just science, though. An Opening Day win does that.
I always remember being in the car headed home from an Opening Day loss, and Bill Grigsby on the radio saying, "it's okay, everyone, they could still go 161-1." Opening Day can be optimistic, even with a loss! :-)
When I saw the headline, before I even read your article I figured that your bold prediction would be for the Royals to win 75 this year. I wasn't too far off. That would be my own bold prediction but I don't have much confidence in it.
Will they be buyers or sellers this year, and when? Break out that crystal ball, throw it away, and make a totally random guess.
Both! I wrote it!
Wow, I completely missed that Staumont got sent down to start the year. Had he not pitched very well over the spring. I’m surprised by that only because Carlos Hernandez appears to be ahead of him in the eyes of the coaching staff huh. As you mentioned….wonder if he becomes more of a trade chip this season then. I think it’s all a good thing….just surprised they see more in Hernandez right now than Staumont.
I think we just have to get used to big league caliber pitchers not in the big leagues. They've built up quite a bit of depth and, as I've written, they see their big league bullpen as bigger than eight pitchers. That means someone (someones) will need to be in AAA here and there throughout the season. Staumont has struggled some with control in spite of having a really good spring. I appreciate them looking at the whole picture and not just Cactus League numbers. Hernandez's stuff has looked SO good that I'm not sure they had a choice. The truth is that all the optioned pitchers will very likely be back and maybe many before April ends.
I'm always bullish on the Royals to start a season so I'll bump the wins up to 76 or 77. They will look better than last year and will actually do things at the trade deadline instead of just do nothing. We also will be Top 15(read this as 13-15) in strikeouts from the pitchers and may improve a bit in terms of strikeouts from the hitters (I had forgotten we were pretty good at not striking out last year).
That's a good one on the pitching staff. I can absolutely see it.
What is your bold prediction this year on where the walk rate will be in relation to the league?
Maybe a better question is….what does it NEED to be this year. Lol
Pitching staff….to clarify.
That's a good one. I'm going to say it drops by about three-quarters of a percent. They were at 9.4% last year, so let's say 8.6%, which in 2022 was still bottom 10, but previously has been more middle of the road. Where it needs to be? I think as long as they're middle of the pack, I'm happy.
I will predict with my heart above my head...82-80.
I'm predicting a little closer to 500 ball than you. I think they will be right on the 500 number all year. I think a big difference with this club especially this season will be that our new coaching staff ,mainly Matt combined with JJ will be less tolerant with players that aren't performing. I don't think they will be hesitant to send a guy down that's 1for 17 ,hitting 168 or a pitcher that's 0-4 with 14 walks and a 7 Era. I think they will be very TRANSACTIONAL . Sending guys down and bringing guys up. Keeping I -29 very busy all season. I think Reyes will be huge for us early on. But two guys I don't think will be around very long because of their struggles at the plate. Lopez and Dozier. Also I think Gentry will be up before All star break. Hopefully Pratto as well. Bullpen will be just fine. But starting rotation will be our biggest issue all year. Just ZERO arms. Singer not enough. Definitely don't think he will even come close to duplicating last year. I think it's between the ears with Brady. Hes very hot headed, much like a very young Grenke. Zacks issues during his first three or 4 seasons here were 85 percent mental. Looking forward to this year and seeing what changes this new staff brings. Even in our minor league system, which is where I think we will notice biggest difference the quickest.
😸Yummy! That Kool-Aid always tastes so good this time of year, doesn't it?
I hope all of this happens, except the Greinke part. Ironically, I just have this gut feeling Greinke could have a surprisingly good year. Nothing to support it, just a feeling, and I've been dead wrong before, but that is my bold Royals prediction. Although, as much as I love Zack, I would gladly concede that one to you if you're right about Vinnie P., BWJ, and Singer.
Yeah, I think there's at least a non-zero chance that Greinke just never struggles and it doesn't matter how many strikeouts he gets. I hope I'm way off.
When you were predicting win total, did you factor in fewer games against AL Central teams? I'm assuming the schedule will be harder with fewer games against the Tigers, for example.
I did. I would probably have them a couple wins higher if it was the old schedule.
I hope you're right since that win total would represent clear progress. I'm more pessimistic, though, because I just don't think the starting pitching is there.
Good bourbon , guy's with hi velo, light tower power, 78 wins
On last night's Kauffman Corner, Soren said he thinks you told him that Bobby Witt has told the team that he wants to play short. I think Soren was suggesting that it might tie into whether or not Witt would consider staying with the Royals if he can't play his preferred position. Anyway, what are your thoughts on the matter? Is Witt a lock at stay at short? If he's bad defensively (again), will he agree to move? Where do Garcia and Lopez fit into all this since it seems they are clearly better defensively? If the chances are remote that Witt would ever since a long-term deal, maybe commit to Garcia at short and dangle Witt in trade?
*ever sign a long-term deal*
I think maybe we had some wires crossed. I don't know if Witt told them that or not, but I thought maybe he would have. I don't think he's a lock at all, but I think that *if* shortstop is what he wants to play, the first part of this season is to either figure out if he can or prove to him that he can't. I think he will move if it comes to that.
That said, I think the idea of Garcia being the guy to dangle Witt in a trade is getting WAY too ahead of ourselves. Many people like him, but just as many see him as a utility guy. And I think we have a pretty good idea that's what Lopez truly is.
Correction Daddy Singer will WIN the Cy Young
Hot Take: Tyler Tolbert Goes 40/40 in the minors this year
Hot Take: Jordan Lyles makes a all star team
Hot Take: Many come around on the idea that a downtown stadium is actually a good idea and stop complaining