Just because you are paranoid does not mean that someone is not following you. I think that Matheny is doing is respectfully sneaky stuff, and more so with the shortened spring training. The way you move Bobby to second is, step one, you give Nicky the day off, so you have to do something. And then, viola, step two, Nicky comes back but Bobby is still batting second. I have seen this clever pattern of behavior from Matheny before, and I like it. Bobby deserves second. No need to baby him (though Mondi is a different story, keep him where he is for now).
Yesterday was my dream players, but, alas, I fear you are right that MJ is left out. But he should not be IMO. To me, he is just as much better than Dozier and our backup catcher than Bobby is that our backup 3B. He beat the doors down just as much as Bobby. He had a better year with the bat that Bobby last year. And he gets high grades for his glove too.
Dayton, please listen to your conscience. You said that you would never allow a vet to block a young player when the time comes. And the time has come. Do not pretend that you did not make a big mistake in giving Dozier that deal. Yes, keep him as the backup corner man and DH. But MJ deserves to be there as DH on Opening Day, and for him and Salvy to play C/DH tag, with Matheny doing it in the same respectful sneaky way to, no, not give Salvy the 75% at C, he already broke that record, but to defer to him to give him maybe 60% (until MJ's obvious better framing skills lead to some more sneaky Matheny to give MJ more so that we win more games).
If the Royals really want to win, this is what they will do. Hoping, hoping, hoping.
I would love to see MJ on the roster, but I also understand the reasoning behind it. Dozier has a long-term deal that they want to get value out of, but honestly the argument isn't Dozier vs. Melendez or even Gallagher vs. Melendez because Melendez isn't going to be on the roster to play 35 games, it's Santana vs. Melendez/Pratto.
I think Pratto legitimately has some things to work on in the minors still, though he's close, so it's really Santana vs. Melendez and while Melendez is better, it's the right thing for the organization to see if they can showcase Santana for a bit to hopefully get him to another team. It's easy to look at it in a vacuum and say Melendez belongs on the team over Santana or Dozier, but there's just more to it.
Forgive me for being dense, but I do not understand your comment. I do agree with holding Pratto back a bit for two good reasons - his strikeout issues and that if Santana can overcome is historic slow starts (is that right), that we can, with integrity, kill three birds with one stone (build up Santana's trade value, have Pratto demonstrate the ability to strike out less, and, for bonus points, get an extra year of Pratto before he hits free agency).
But, for MJ, as with Hosmer, when he has earned it, you do not hold him back for 35 games to game the system to get an extra year. Is that what you are saying the Royals will be doing? That even though MJ clearly deserves it over Dozier/Cam, that, too bad, we will game him for 35 games and hope that Dozier can do okay for that long? And that Dayton's sad attempts to justify Dozier's extension is also a factor?
I'm not saying they're gaming the system. I'm saying they're working within the confines of their roster, which has to be considered. It's not always so easy as just promote the prospect and move on. Cam likely has very little to do with Melendez. If Melendez is up, he's playing almost every day somewhere, likely as a DH. I imagine they wouldn't want to risk giving up the DH in that many games, so they'd likely carry both.
Dozier, for all the hate he gets, was well above average in 2019 (123 wRC+) and slightly above average in 2020 (104 wRC+) before struggling brutally for a couple months and then getting back to being an above average hitter after the break (109 wRC+). He's going to be in the lineup until he proves that the 277 first half plate appearances were more indicative than the other 1,038 over the last three seasons. So because of that, the block for Melendez at this particular moment is Carlos Santana. And it's in the Royals best interest as an organization to try to get something for him. To do that, he likely needs to prove that his dip was due to the hip injury that's supposedly better now.
You can argue that they should just move on or whatever, but they're not going to and I honestly don't have a strong opinion either way about it. All of this could change in the last 11 games of spring if Santana just looks completely lost (he hasn't to this point) or Melendez just absolutely explodes, but that's your block for Melendez and I understand it from the team's perspective.
I am sorry to still remain so dense. What am I not understanding is this - to me, it seems to me that it is between Santana and Pratto for a roster spot - not between Santana and MJ. What am I missing? It seems that we both agree that at some point Santana will be gone and Pratto will take his place. So . . . what does that have to do with MJ being the DH/C on Opening Day, instead of Dozier being the DH on Opening Day. I do agree with you that they can still keep Cam, for the rainy day when our catcher gets injured and we do not want to sacrifice the DH. But what does this have to do with MJ having proven last year that he is just as deserving as Bobby to step ahead of whoever else is there? Is it a numbers game? That we can only have 13 position players? That does not make sense to me, as we would have the same problem regardless of when the Santana/Pratto 1 for 1 change happens. Is it because you do not believe that MJ deserves it over Dozier? On that, reasonable minds could disagree I suppose. Thank you for clarifying for me.
My point is Dozier is playing regardless, whether it's first or DH. And Pratto is not going to make the Opening Day roster. So either Dozier is at first and MJ is DH or Santana is at first and Dozier is at DH. That's why it's Santana vs. Melendez right now.
And if they were playing by the original rules of a max of 13 pitchers, I'd say Melendez has a much better shot, but to start the year, there'll be 28 players on the roster with no pitcher limit. Until I'm told otherwise, I'm going to assume they go with 16 pitchers.
Edit to add: I also don't think it's the worst thing to get Melendez some time on the infield in AAA. He's played all of nine games at third and has never played first. Personally, I think he'd be a nice fit in the corner outfield, but he's never played there either. Salvy is going to catch a lot, even if he backs off a ton once Melendez is up. If you don't want to waste the athleticism of Melendez at DH every day he's not catching, playing elsewhere isn't a bad idea.
Okay, now I understand what you believe. But I do respectfully disagree with it. I believe that MJ clearly agrees to play over Dozier as DH, just as Bobby clearly agrees to play over whoever else the 3B would have been. MJ had a better year in the minors that Bobby did. And that is a good thing. Dozier to me is at best a useful backup - not anyone to hold anyone back who clearly has better projections with the bat. Does that make Dayton look bad to have given Dozier the contract he did? Yes, of course. But it makes him look even worse, in my opinion, to compound his mistake by allowing Dozier as primary DH when we could have MJ there. That is what the championship core will look like. That is the reality. - Dozier will be, at best, a bench warmer on the championship core, while MJ will be a key player, doing the C/DH thing with Salvy. So, to me, delaying that truth for 35 games will only be about gaming a year, and depriving MJ of those 35 at bats to get adjusted quicker, which I am thankful the Royals have not done in the past. Sadly, I think you are right that Dozier instead of MJ will open the year at DH. But I do not think that is the best play. That is why I was so excited yesterday to see MJ in there at DH, hoping it was another sneaky Matheny move. Now, today is a scrambled lineup, so we may have to wait until tomorrow to see if it is MJ or Dozier playing (or maybe both if Matheny is being extra sneaky this time). But I fear you are right, but that the Royals are wrong to have Dozier instead of MJ at DH on Opening Day.
I love the Lesky/Yeakel discussion this morning. Agree with Terry Payne in begging the Royals to not move north east without Ryan O'Hearn. I think the biggest black hole in lineup will be MAT. Thank you again David. Can't wait until April 7.
I am just seeing it as MJ earned it last year, including Opening Day, the same as Bobby. And we both agree there are two good reasons to make Pratto wait, which do not include any gaming. I do agree with you that, in the grand scheme of things this year, that the extra games we could have won with MJ over Dozier at DH from the jump, will most likely not be the difference. I am just looking at it from my (and maybe MJ's?) eyes, that you have got to be kidding me that MJ does not deserve it over Dozier from Day One. Hopefully he keeps a good attitude about it. Mine boiled over the other day when they have MJ over playing 3B with the minor leaguers. That is what Dozier should have been doing IMO. Anyway, I may have just been seeing wishful thinking fool's gold sneaky Matheny from MJ getting DH yesterday, just a day after I started thinking that He deserves that over Whit. Thank you for hearing me out.
So I was a little surprised that it would only be 25 more runs or a lineup that is 2 wins better. I know much improvement is going to have to come from the pitching side but I was hoping for a little more improvement on the offensive side as well. I guess in hindsight…..it is pretty much the same team as last year with just one major addition from the minors. Hopefully MJ and Pratto add more.
That number was based on projections, but the difference this year is replacements are there for the guys who struggle whereas they weren’t last year. If you assume certain spots will be better just because they’ll be replaced if they’re not, it’s likely closer to four wins.
Mr. L, Please, please, please reassure me that Ryan O'Hearn will NOT be going north.
Wish I could guarantee that. I'm hopeful that he won't. Does that count for something?
Just because you are paranoid does not mean that someone is not following you. I think that Matheny is doing is respectfully sneaky stuff, and more so with the shortened spring training. The way you move Bobby to second is, step one, you give Nicky the day off, so you have to do something. And then, viola, step two, Nicky comes back but Bobby is still batting second. I have seen this clever pattern of behavior from Matheny before, and I like it. Bobby deserves second. No need to baby him (though Mondi is a different story, keep him where he is for now).
Yesterday was my dream players, but, alas, I fear you are right that MJ is left out. But he should not be IMO. To me, he is just as much better than Dozier and our backup catcher than Bobby is that our backup 3B. He beat the doors down just as much as Bobby. He had a better year with the bat that Bobby last year. And he gets high grades for his glove too.
Dayton, please listen to your conscience. You said that you would never allow a vet to block a young player when the time comes. And the time has come. Do not pretend that you did not make a big mistake in giving Dozier that deal. Yes, keep him as the backup corner man and DH. But MJ deserves to be there as DH on Opening Day, and for him and Salvy to play C/DH tag, with Matheny doing it in the same respectful sneaky way to, no, not give Salvy the 75% at C, he already broke that record, but to defer to him to give him maybe 60% (until MJ's obvious better framing skills lead to some more sneaky Matheny to give MJ more so that we win more games).
If the Royals really want to win, this is what they will do. Hoping, hoping, hoping.
I would love to see MJ on the roster, but I also understand the reasoning behind it. Dozier has a long-term deal that they want to get value out of, but honestly the argument isn't Dozier vs. Melendez or even Gallagher vs. Melendez because Melendez isn't going to be on the roster to play 35 games, it's Santana vs. Melendez/Pratto.
I think Pratto legitimately has some things to work on in the minors still, though he's close, so it's really Santana vs. Melendez and while Melendez is better, it's the right thing for the organization to see if they can showcase Santana for a bit to hopefully get him to another team. It's easy to look at it in a vacuum and say Melendez belongs on the team over Santana or Dozier, but there's just more to it.
Forgive me for being dense, but I do not understand your comment. I do agree with holding Pratto back a bit for two good reasons - his strikeout issues and that if Santana can overcome is historic slow starts (is that right), that we can, with integrity, kill three birds with one stone (build up Santana's trade value, have Pratto demonstrate the ability to strike out less, and, for bonus points, get an extra year of Pratto before he hits free agency).
But, for MJ, as with Hosmer, when he has earned it, you do not hold him back for 35 games to game the system to get an extra year. Is that what you are saying the Royals will be doing? That even though MJ clearly deserves it over Dozier/Cam, that, too bad, we will game him for 35 games and hope that Dozier can do okay for that long? And that Dayton's sad attempts to justify Dozier's extension is also a factor?
I'm not saying they're gaming the system. I'm saying they're working within the confines of their roster, which has to be considered. It's not always so easy as just promote the prospect and move on. Cam likely has very little to do with Melendez. If Melendez is up, he's playing almost every day somewhere, likely as a DH. I imagine they wouldn't want to risk giving up the DH in that many games, so they'd likely carry both.
Dozier, for all the hate he gets, was well above average in 2019 (123 wRC+) and slightly above average in 2020 (104 wRC+) before struggling brutally for a couple months and then getting back to being an above average hitter after the break (109 wRC+). He's going to be in the lineup until he proves that the 277 first half plate appearances were more indicative than the other 1,038 over the last three seasons. So because of that, the block for Melendez at this particular moment is Carlos Santana. And it's in the Royals best interest as an organization to try to get something for him. To do that, he likely needs to prove that his dip was due to the hip injury that's supposedly better now.
You can argue that they should just move on or whatever, but they're not going to and I honestly don't have a strong opinion either way about it. All of this could change in the last 11 games of spring if Santana just looks completely lost (he hasn't to this point) or Melendez just absolutely explodes, but that's your block for Melendez and I understand it from the team's perspective.
I am sorry to still remain so dense. What am I not understanding is this - to me, it seems to me that it is between Santana and Pratto for a roster spot - not between Santana and MJ. What am I missing? It seems that we both agree that at some point Santana will be gone and Pratto will take his place. So . . . what does that have to do with MJ being the DH/C on Opening Day, instead of Dozier being the DH on Opening Day. I do agree with you that they can still keep Cam, for the rainy day when our catcher gets injured and we do not want to sacrifice the DH. But what does this have to do with MJ having proven last year that he is just as deserving as Bobby to step ahead of whoever else is there? Is it a numbers game? That we can only have 13 position players? That does not make sense to me, as we would have the same problem regardless of when the Santana/Pratto 1 for 1 change happens. Is it because you do not believe that MJ deserves it over Dozier? On that, reasonable minds could disagree I suppose. Thank you for clarifying for me.
My point is Dozier is playing regardless, whether it's first or DH. And Pratto is not going to make the Opening Day roster. So either Dozier is at first and MJ is DH or Santana is at first and Dozier is at DH. That's why it's Santana vs. Melendez right now.
And if they were playing by the original rules of a max of 13 pitchers, I'd say Melendez has a much better shot, but to start the year, there'll be 28 players on the roster with no pitcher limit. Until I'm told otherwise, I'm going to assume they go with 16 pitchers.
Edit to add: I also don't think it's the worst thing to get Melendez some time on the infield in AAA. He's played all of nine games at third and has never played first. Personally, I think he'd be a nice fit in the corner outfield, but he's never played there either. Salvy is going to catch a lot, even if he backs off a ton once Melendez is up. If you don't want to waste the athleticism of Melendez at DH every day he's not catching, playing elsewhere isn't a bad idea.
Okay, now I understand what you believe. But I do respectfully disagree with it. I believe that MJ clearly agrees to play over Dozier as DH, just as Bobby clearly agrees to play over whoever else the 3B would have been. MJ had a better year in the minors that Bobby did. And that is a good thing. Dozier to me is at best a useful backup - not anyone to hold anyone back who clearly has better projections with the bat. Does that make Dayton look bad to have given Dozier the contract he did? Yes, of course. But it makes him look even worse, in my opinion, to compound his mistake by allowing Dozier as primary DH when we could have MJ there. That is what the championship core will look like. That is the reality. - Dozier will be, at best, a bench warmer on the championship core, while MJ will be a key player, doing the C/DH thing with Salvy. So, to me, delaying that truth for 35 games will only be about gaming a year, and depriving MJ of those 35 at bats to get adjusted quicker, which I am thankful the Royals have not done in the past. Sadly, I think you are right that Dozier instead of MJ will open the year at DH. But I do not think that is the best play. That is why I was so excited yesterday to see MJ in there at DH, hoping it was another sneaky Matheny move. Now, today is a scrambled lineup, so we may have to wait until tomorrow to see if it is MJ or Dozier playing (or maybe both if Matheny is being extra sneaky this time). But I fear you are right, but that the Royals are wrong to have Dozier instead of MJ at DH on Opening Day.
I love the Lesky/Yeakel discussion this morning. Agree with Terry Payne in begging the Royals to not move north east without Ryan O'Hearn. I think the biggest black hole in lineup will be MAT. Thank you again David. Can't wait until April 7.
They can make it work with Taylor! https://insidethecrown.substack.com/p/supporting-michael-a-taylors-bat-royals?s=w
I am just seeing it as MJ earned it last year, including Opening Day, the same as Bobby. And we both agree there are two good reasons to make Pratto wait, which do not include any gaming. I do agree with you that, in the grand scheme of things this year, that the extra games we could have won with MJ over Dozier at DH from the jump, will most likely not be the difference. I am just looking at it from my (and maybe MJ's?) eyes, that you have got to be kidding me that MJ does not deserve it over Dozier from Day One. Hopefully he keeps a good attitude about it. Mine boiled over the other day when they have MJ over playing 3B with the minor leaguers. That is what Dozier should have been doing IMO. Anyway, I may have just been seeing wishful thinking fool's gold sneaky Matheny from MJ getting DH yesterday, just a day after I started thinking that He deserves that over Whit. Thank you for hearing me out.
So I was a little surprised that it would only be 25 more runs or a lineup that is 2 wins better. I know much improvement is going to have to come from the pitching side but I was hoping for a little more improvement on the offensive side as well. I guess in hindsight…..it is pretty much the same team as last year with just one major addition from the minors. Hopefully MJ and Pratto add more.
That number was based on projections, but the difference this year is replacements are there for the guys who struggle whereas they weren’t last year. If you assume certain spots will be better just because they’ll be replaced if they’re not, it’s likely closer to four wins.