"Royals schedule is harder on paper this year than it was last year." --cause for optimism? If they played better against good teams and worse against bad teams, then they should do better with a harder schedule...maybe? Some teams seem to play to the level of the competition. Maybe the Royals last year (frustratingly) did just that. **shrug**
Yeah, interesting point. They did play well down the stretch against good teams. Ultimately, i think the difficulty of playing a grind of a schedule would get to a lesser talented team, but maybe it helps speed up some development too.
I do believe a better bullpen this year will lead to better ERA's for the starting staff. It seemed to me early last year especially, inherited runners were allowed to score a lot. Bad defense during that time also seemed to contribute to that as well. It took Whit a month or so to get his defense down at second and the revolving door at third didn't help either.
I agree that the bullpen being better will help quite a bit and yeah, early season defense was pretty rough. It's definitely not a coincidence that everything was better in the second half.
Feeling a bit of a disconnect with the lack of a potential higher ceiling being identified for the royals young starters. Feel like I was sold on Lynch, Singer, and Kowar as being future fixtures at the top end of a contending rotation (maybe not by you, but certainly by others). Would you say those ceilings are no longer on the table for those 3, or moreso just not this year?
I think we've seen that Singer's ceiling isn't as high as maybe some expected because of a number of things that have driven me nuts about him. Lynch, I believe, could still be a top guy and Kowar has some work to do to get there. The 2020 season was pretty unkind to guys like them, though, as they missed a year of development in the system and now you're looking at a group playing catchup.
Yes I am the eternal Royals optimist, but hey, it beats waking up in a bad mood.
I'm thinking you're right on the money at the high end. I'm going with 80-82 wins. I think Matheny continues to improve as a Manager and benefits from better talent. Even more so: to me, we essentially traded Minor for Grienke and Amir. That's a huge boost!
Additionally, I think the Grienke acquisition is going to pay dividends that show up in the W column but aren't in the WAR calculus such as:
- attendance - more fans will be coming out to see Grienke than did Minor I assure you - I do believe fans make a difference
- clubhouse impact - if there's a team that loves good clubhouse players, it's our Royals and Grienke should be a boost there - he's a Cy Young winner who could've went almost anywhere, him signing with us sends a message to our team that we can compete and we are a preferred destination; confidence plays in all sports, but baseball especially
- pitching staff impact - okay, so our roster feels better about being a Royal, but what about performance boost tied to delivery, approach, in game management, etc.? Singer would be an idiot not to listen to Grienke on how to field (no more throws to the bullpen from the Pitcher position), the importance of a (gasp) third pitch from the man who has 6, as well as the rest of the staff on how to handle in game chaos (good and bad), make adjustments, help prepare how to approach hitters, etc.
Call it the Grienke effect, my homerism, whatever you want to call it but I see it like this:
Grienke in place of Minor = @ least three wins
Grienke in the clubhouse = @ least another three wins from intangibles
If Matheny gets a game better at managing then we could hit .500 IMO.
So yes, I did put my money where my mouth is lol. Let's get to 76 wins asap Royals!!!
Hey, I love it. I think the Royals will benefit from Greinke in ways you don't see in the stats too, but my thought is more for the future. Though I do agree that the atmosphere definitely helps and he'll draw more of a crowd, though I'm not so sure how much. I think you might be a little more optimistic about the values there, but who am I to say you're wrong? It's spring, you're supposed to be optimistic!
Well, that was a depressing article. Even more depressing, I think you are correct. The AL Central has gotten significantly better, which basically means the Royals have to get significantly better to end up with . . . the same record as last year.
One thing that really worries me is that I think Salvy will drop off a good 20% from last year. One thing that gives me hope is I think Dozier will improve 20% from last year.
There is one realistic scenario in which the Royals do much better than last year: Witt Jr. is great, Mondesi is great and healthy, Dozier is really good, the bullpen is lights out, 1-2 of the young starters have breakout years, and C. Santana gets traded for . . . anything/anyone, which opens the door for some combo of Dozier, Melendez, and Pratto to start at first..
Unfortunately, there is an equally realistic (or maybe more than equally realistic) scenario in which the Royals get worse: Salvy falls way off, Dozier is only a little better, Whit Merrifield declines a little, Taylor declines a little, Witt Jr. is good but not great, Mondesi misses half the season to injury, none of the young starters break out, and C. Santana starts the majority of the games at first.
"Royals schedule is harder on paper this year than it was last year." --cause for optimism? If they played better against good teams and worse against bad teams, then they should do better with a harder schedule...maybe? Some teams seem to play to the level of the competition. Maybe the Royals last year (frustratingly) did just that. **shrug**
Yeah, interesting point. They did play well down the stretch against good teams. Ultimately, i think the difficulty of playing a grind of a schedule would get to a lesser talented team, but maybe it helps speed up some development too.
I do believe a better bullpen this year will lead to better ERA's for the starting staff. It seemed to me early last year especially, inherited runners were allowed to score a lot. Bad defense during that time also seemed to contribute to that as well. It took Whit a month or so to get his defense down at second and the revolving door at third didn't help either.
I agree that the bullpen being better will help quite a bit and yeah, early season defense was pretty rough. It's definitely not a coincidence that everything was better in the second half.
Feeling a bit of a disconnect with the lack of a potential higher ceiling being identified for the royals young starters. Feel like I was sold on Lynch, Singer, and Kowar as being future fixtures at the top end of a contending rotation (maybe not by you, but certainly by others). Would you say those ceilings are no longer on the table for those 3, or moreso just not this year?
I think we've seen that Singer's ceiling isn't as high as maybe some expected because of a number of things that have driven me nuts about him. Lynch, I believe, could still be a top guy and Kowar has some work to do to get there. The 2020 season was pretty unkind to guys like them, though, as they missed a year of development in the system and now you're looking at a group playing catchup.
Yes I am the eternal Royals optimist, but hey, it beats waking up in a bad mood.
I'm thinking you're right on the money at the high end. I'm going with 80-82 wins. I think Matheny continues to improve as a Manager and benefits from better talent. Even more so: to me, we essentially traded Minor for Grienke and Amir. That's a huge boost!
Additionally, I think the Grienke acquisition is going to pay dividends that show up in the W column but aren't in the WAR calculus such as:
- attendance - more fans will be coming out to see Grienke than did Minor I assure you - I do believe fans make a difference
- clubhouse impact - if there's a team that loves good clubhouse players, it's our Royals and Grienke should be a boost there - he's a Cy Young winner who could've went almost anywhere, him signing with us sends a message to our team that we can compete and we are a preferred destination; confidence plays in all sports, but baseball especially
- pitching staff impact - okay, so our roster feels better about being a Royal, but what about performance boost tied to delivery, approach, in game management, etc.? Singer would be an idiot not to listen to Grienke on how to field (no more throws to the bullpen from the Pitcher position), the importance of a (gasp) third pitch from the man who has 6, as well as the rest of the staff on how to handle in game chaos (good and bad), make adjustments, help prepare how to approach hitters, etc.
Call it the Grienke effect, my homerism, whatever you want to call it but I see it like this:
Grienke in place of Minor = @ least three wins
Grienke in the clubhouse = @ least another three wins from intangibles
If Matheny gets a game better at managing then we could hit .500 IMO.
So yes, I did put my money where my mouth is lol. Let's get to 76 wins asap Royals!!!
Hey, I love it. I think the Royals will benefit from Greinke in ways you don't see in the stats too, but my thought is more for the future. Though I do agree that the atmosphere definitely helps and he'll draw more of a crowd, though I'm not so sure how much. I think you might be a little more optimistic about the values there, but who am I to say you're wrong? It's spring, you're supposed to be optimistic!
Exactly! And we're undefeated lol!
Well, that was a depressing article. Even more depressing, I think you are correct. The AL Central has gotten significantly better, which basically means the Royals have to get significantly better to end up with . . . the same record as last year.
One thing that really worries me is that I think Salvy will drop off a good 20% from last year. One thing that gives me hope is I think Dozier will improve 20% from last year.
There is one realistic scenario in which the Royals do much better than last year: Witt Jr. is great, Mondesi is great and healthy, Dozier is really good, the bullpen is lights out, 1-2 of the young starters have breakout years, and C. Santana gets traded for . . . anything/anyone, which opens the door for some combo of Dozier, Melendez, and Pratto to start at first..
Unfortunately, there is an equally realistic (or maybe more than equally realistic) scenario in which the Royals get worse: Salvy falls way off, Dozier is only a little better, Whit Merrifield declines a little, Taylor declines a little, Witt Jr. is good but not great, Mondesi misses half the season to injury, none of the young starters break out, and C. Santana starts the majority of the games at first.