21 Comments

Good stuff per usual. Using this section today to say I will be annoyed if they sign Tyler O’Neil. Anyone else please!

Expand full comment
author

I could be wrong and this could change based on cost, but I don't think they're that into him. Like I wrote, they were willing to take him on a one-year deal for little money. I'm not so sure they like him at three or four years and $15-$20 million per year or whatever he gets.

Expand full comment

My podcast cohost LOVES Rave and I feel like I've heard Avila's name all over the place. Do you think people are overrating them or are there other considerations that make them unlikely to be useful to the Royals or another team?

Expand full comment
author

I think Rave is total depth. He's fine. I think he's one of those guys who could put together a good season here and there, but he'll be 27 in December and hasn't really lit up the minors. He can handle center, which makes him useful. I could see a fourth outfielder career.

Avila is a little different to me. I think he can be a big leaguer and maybe even a good one, though I'm not convinced he'll start. I guess that's true of any pitching prospect. Still, the stuff is good enough that I think he could emerge at any point.

Expand full comment

David, great analysis as always! What about the kid who is tearing up the AZ Fall League and hit homers like crazy in college? Could he be made into a right fielder? Remember, Al Kaline went from a Detroit high school to the Tigers without playing one inning of minor league baseball? Are the Royals willing to eat Hunter R. contract?

Expand full comment
author

I wouldn’t say that Caglianone is tearing up the AFL. Keith Law wrote up a report the other day that he looks worn down, which is no surprise. He’s had a very long season. He might be able to play right field, but they haven’t tried it yet. And Kaline is absolutely an exception to the rule, especially given that pitching is significantly more difficult to hit against today than it was then. You’re facing 4 guys a night who throw 98 with crazy movement.

As for Renfroe, they’ll be willing but I doubt they do it at this point.

Expand full comment

I have to say that I'm really disappointed about MJ's defense. I guess I hadn't kept up on that as he'd progressed through the season. I remember reading that he was much improved early on and kind of kept riding that wave of "well, he can't bat, but at least he put in the work to improve his defense last off-season so maybe there's hope that he can spend this off-season on his bat and bring it all together." Turns out he didn't even do that. It's getting very tough to stay up on the kid.

Expand full comment
author

The thing about Melendez is he did improve a lot of things defensively. It’s just that playing the outfield is really hard after basically never working at it exclusively before this past winter. His jumps are bad, but he’s fast enough and has a good arm. I get being done with him and I’d be fine if they move on, but if they don’t, I’ll be curious to see what another offseason of work does for his jumps.

Expand full comment

I’m the downer on MJ of the group here I think. Have been for a while. But I see the tools to where if you keep him in a platoon…..it could work. He has to earn his way to a full time gig now. It’s what big boy teams do now anyway…I’m happy we are here. Keep him as a platoon guy in the corner outfield….fine with that. He’s got tools…..it’s just somehow he has to hit 90 mph fastballs down the middle more often than he does. No stats….that’s just my eyes. Lol.

Expand full comment

I think i might have even mentioned it to you once or twice David. But there were a few times this year I saw him swing through 90mph fastballs middle, middle. Something is just off. IDK what it is. But the swing isn’t great.

Expand full comment
author

You're not wrong. He got 90 fastballs between 88 and 92 in the heart of the plate and whiffed on 10 of them, which is a huge amount for that spot at that velocity. His swing needs to be completely reworked.

Expand full comment

Ha I was just trying to look up when his defense nosedived, bc I remember monitoring at least the first half of season and he was doing fine. And y, it is going to be a little harder to back him up now

Expand full comment

Today was the first time I didn't read the entire newsletter. That is how much I dislike this year's World Series. I will not watch even one inning. I think John Rave would be worth protecting. I hope he gets a long look at an outfield spot next spring.

Expand full comment
author

I do get it, but it's hard for me to not want to watch the best of the best. Plus, baseball is baseball. If I'm willing to watch random minor league games, I'll definitely watch Ohtani, Betts, Judge and Soto.

As for Rave, he's fine. But he'll be 27, doesn't make great contact and has never been anything more than a bit above average offensively. He can handle center, but can't play there every day and would be pretty good in corners. I think he can be fourth or fifth outfielder, but he's been left unprotected before and wasn't picked. I don't think they're all that concerned.

Expand full comment
Oct 25Liked by David Lesky

Looking forward to this Series full of stars! Should be entertaining.

Expand full comment

Hey now, Walter Pennington can still be a good reliever. Lol. He had the walks up with the Rangers but the numbers were still fine. Obviously won’t stay that way if he doesn’t stop walking people….but it was still a win/win for the Royals/Rangers in my eyes. That’s two for those two groups now. Maybe Pennington doesn’t become something….but Lorenzen probably isn’t here next year anyway.

If Sisk can get outs…..keep him.

Expand full comment
author

He absolutely can be a good reliever. My point was that people clamored for him, but kind of ignored Sisk, who had even better numbers and similar pitch metrics. I'd keep Sisk with the space they should have.

Expand full comment

Oh yeah, you do I know. Look, I can’t disagree with anything they do on the pitching side for a good period now after last year. IDK if Sisk will work out….but I have a soft spot for guys that get outs with good numbers and not great stuff. So, we’ll see what happens!

Expand full comment
author

Hey, maybe he gets traded for a guy who can hit 7th in the ALCS.

Expand full comment

David, I've been meaning to ask you this for awhile, and if it's been covered elsewhere I missed it. Several weeks ago, there were a bunch of Royals scouting positions posted on Fangraphs. Do you know anything about that? What sort of change has there been in the Royals scouting department?

Expand full comment
author

I don’t think there are huge changes. I think they’re just adding to the team.

Expand full comment