Agreed. Maybe it’s time for another! When the Royals drafted Cags I pictured him in right field immediately. I do agree with you that there is room in the lineup for Jac, Vinny, and Salvy but Q is going to need to be creative.
Something that I hadn't even considered is that they are likely to face a bunch of righties in the first 16 games of the year before they get to the Yankees series. I don't know if that means anything and they likely aren't going to make a decision based on that, but he wouldn't be sitting much if he's platooning...
Cross has the physical skills, including bat speed along with David's notes on zone discipline to succeed where Rave doesn't. I think it's likely he'd be overmatched tho. He's got 436 plate appearances above High A and none at AAA? Preston Farr posted on X that Cross has a 74 + mph bat speed this spring.
I listened to Soren lose his mind over the thought of Cags playing the outfield on the podcast (great podcast btw), and I was pretty convinced he was falling into some pretty egregious logical fallacies. His argument is basically that there are hardly any 250lb outfielders who have been successful, therefore Jac won’t be successful. However, first, as you noted, this treats all players 250lb+ the same, which is extremely myopic. Josh Naylor’s body composition is NOTHING like Jac’s. Jac is 6’5’’, 22 years old, and built like a Greek god. Second, there are extremely few 6’5’’ 250 lb baseball players to begin with. So you would not expect there to be hardly any players that size playing at ANY position.
I think taller individuals are typically a little slower and less agile than their vertically challenged counterparts. But this is not universal. LeBron James is 6’8’’ 260 or whatever and can essentially play any position on the court. Magic Johnson was a 6’9’’ point guard. There will always be athletes that defy the physical prototypes for the positions they play.
I’m not saying Jac will be a great outfielder, but to simply say he can’t do it because he’s 250 lbs is a lazy and fallacious argument.
You know, that's a great point about guys who are 6'5", 250. How many have there actually been? I could look it up and I might, but the sample is small to begin with. I also think the important thing is that, unless he's amazing out there, you're not likely asking him to do it for 15 years but rather two or three, which changes the calculations too.
I was about to reply to the first comment above basically this same thing. 20 years ago a guy that was 250 pounds was not very likely built like Cags, or nearly as athletic. But like you said, we likely aren't looking at him to play his entire career in the outfield, but if that's how you get his bat in the lineup, you have to look at it.
Exactly. And for a meaningful sample for comparison you would need 6’5/250 AND a similar body fat percentage and age. My guess is the sample would be so small, making any extrapolations from it would be a fool’s errand.
I think the bigger problem is that he hasn’t apparently even started to play in right field yet. I’m skeptical he can pick it up with no winter training in 2-3 months on the fly. Seems like a real long shot for this season. And I’m worried that if he struggles significantly, that will affect his batting.
The weight thing on Jac is interesting. If nothing else, it was a unique take on it that I’d never even really looked at before. I don’t care if he plays the outfield or not. But I do sort of have an issue with the Royals on two fronts with it:
1. Assuming everyone can play the outfield. It appears the Royals are already bailing on India and Massey (two other players that were assumed to be able to play the outfield), and MJ hasn’t really gotten any better. It’s now assumed Garcia can just take centerfield just fine. The assumption that everyone can play the outfield is wrong. But everyone is totally right that this is the time to find out.
2. I do share the thought process that Jac was drafted to mash. So if he is hitting, just keep him at where he normally plays. It’s a good problem to have. But you are telling me you can’t get a legit outfielder back for Vinny? At some point, this organization needs to move players that are blocked. Thinking catcher, thinking however Jac plays out.
It’s a great problem to have, I’m so glad they have it. But why is the answer not as simple as moving a player with this organization? I know JJ can horse trade. We’ve all seen it. Hopefully Jac forces there hand here. And Jensen for that matter.
Assuming everyone can play the outfield and giving it a shot in spring training are two very different things. India and Massey have each played out there in the last few days, so they clearly haven't bailed on that. I thought maybe they had on Massey but he was in left field a couple of days ago. I don't know why anyone has a problem with trying a guy somewhere else in a game that doesn't matter at all.
And as for Jac being drafted to mash, that's fine, but I don't think the Royals even expected that he'd be ready to go as soon as this year. And he still might not be. It's not like they drafted him and didn't know they already had Vinnie Pasquantino. The issue, as I mentioned on the air on Monday, is that they can't know if a guy is close or not until they see him in games and they can't see him in games until there are games to see him in. So you get to spring training and the lineup is built around Pasquantino and Perez (and obviously Witt). If you're contending, you're not trading your number three hitter midseason or before the season. They may have to figure out how to work all the pieces throughout the season and then make a more permanent move after the year when you can make big changes to the team. It all changes if Cags is great out there, which he may or may not be, but even if he's not, it's a temporary solution to a great problem to have. So that's why it's not so simple as to move the guy right now.
Yeah, this is a great conversation to have. I’m not saying it isn’t. I don’t even really think it will be a huge topic this year. Cags is going to still have to prove it in AA and AAA, AND then everyone has to stay healthy. I really think this is more a conversation about next year. I’m not saying move anyone this year. But I do think making Jac your starting right fielder going forward is probably a bad idea. We all love Vinny, but if Jac is as good as he appears (STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO, but another positive), it’s gotta be Vinny moved. Still year or two away I think.
Sure, or you have to just say that Salvy's Royals career is over, which is a different conversation. There is a world where Jac could play right field a handful of times and then split time at first and DH even with Salvy on the roster, but maybe he's the guy who goes.
I think that was the Royals timeline actually. I think Jac is pushing things up on the Royals. But I also think that seeing that Vinny extension I sorta thought was going to happen last year….might not really happen now. Maybe you just let that play out.
Just to point out. And it’s not apples to apples. Vinny is 245 lbs playing first base and has yet to play over 131 games after three years now. It’s just an interesting comp is all.
Adalberto Mondesi was 200 lbs. and never played more than 102 games. But for whatever it's worth, Vinnie played 145 games in 2022. He just wasn't called up until late June.
See a few other great comments re: the 250-pound threshold with Jac. Thought I'd add that 250 pounds in the steroid era is much different than 250 pounds at basically any other time, and there's probably a huge peak on the bell curve from 1995-2005 where a majority of 250+ pound players in the history of the game were active during that stretch. He's just an outlier (or potentially one) and I don't know that there's going to be a great comp. (All the same, great research on the topic!)
Good point on the steroid era. The only 250 lb. outfielders to play 140+ games outside of the streroid era are Aaron Judge in 2017 and Frank Howard in 1967. Otherwise it's a bunch of Carlos Lee, a few Adam Dunns and one Miguel Cabrera.
Zooming out from the "outfield only" lens, it's probably important to note, too, that humans are getting heavier, particularly athletes. We think lovingly of Babe Ruth as a lumbering behemoth slugger -- dude was (listed at) 215 pounds. Half of the Royals 40-man roster is that weight or more.
The more I think on it, comparing a modern athlete to anyone pre-2010 size-wise (arbitrary endpoint, but in my opinion that seems around the time teams and players started emphasizing nutrition, optimizing offseason training, etc.) might be irrelevant. Judge is probably the only real comp we have.
The Royals are interesting in that they are possibly going to have some big dudes. Salvy 255 (no way, it’s higher), Vinney listed at 245. Jac 250, Renfroe 230.
I do think the weight thing is more this though. Yes, people are bigger now. But if your are weighing 250 in the outfield you have to hit. Because the defense it typically a liability. Just look the Royals, Vinnie doesn’t grade out great at first, Renfoe isn’t great in the outfield. To be that big in the outfield, you have to hit or it gets hard to justify.
That isn’t even really directed at Jac, it’s more there are so few because yes, guys weren’t as big, but also you have to mash, etc. Just a lot of variables that have to line up right to even get the opportunities.
Good info on Cross. He will get the first chance being a first round draft pick. Which, if he’s earning it is fine. A little bummed honestly to hear that he’s not viewed as a starter yet. And maybe I should have already known but that’s still the hope for a first rounder. Sounds like it’s Cags and Jensen at the top, and then with Mitchell hurt… a pretty decent group of what I’d call depth guys. Not great yet, but a little progress. Hoping for faster but we’ll see.
The entire Jac conversation almost starts and ends with Cross honestly. If you could draft and develop an actual outfielder….such as the #9 pick that you took as an outfielder. We wouldn’t need to throw catchers, and first basemen in these spots to begin with.
Do you really think a good scout is going to completely alter his or her outlook on a player from less than 20 spring plate appearances. The takeaway is that he looks a lot more like the guy he was a couple of years ago.
No, but that’s what I wanted to hear David! I just think the Royals missed on the evaluation of him if scouts are up to a “not a starter but a platoon bat”. Just tells me he has fallen VERY far in scouts eyes. Which, I probably knew, and I’m sure you’ve written about before. Just been a bit.
MLB Pipeline had him at 10. So did Baseball America. Fangraphs had him at 15, but I can't figure out their rankings anyway. And a strong-side platoon bat is very different than a short-side platoon bat. Plus, he even said he looks like he might be able to handle more lefties than he thought before the spring.
This is not a stupid organization. They've changed so much over the last couple of years since JJ took over. They've earned some credit.
I ran track at Emporia State University as a sprinter and was the founding women’s track coach at Indiana University and coached five All-America athletes including three sprinters. I have seen Jac run out an infield single and he can sprint enough to play RF at the K. His arm is off the scales. I am not concerned about the weight. I talked once with Bill Easton who coached Wilt Chamberlain at KU in track. He told me that Wilt could have been an Olympic decathlon champion if he concentrated on track and Wilt had to be at least 240 pounds!!!
I think it’s fair to say that weight distribution matters. Wilt was listed at 249 lbs. but he was 7’1”. Cags is 250 but he’s 6’5”. Not sure there’s much to be taken from one in comparison to the other.
I saw Cags in the AZ Fall League beat out an infield single. My best in the 100 yard dash at ESU was 10.1 seconds. I coached three All-American sprinters and one of these athletes made the semi-finals of the 400 meter hurdles at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games. I also have a doctorate in physiology and exercise physiology from Indiana along with several courses in kinesiology. I can watch a person run and know whether they have some sprinting ability. As a class project in kinesiology, I filmed a 26 feet 10 inches long jump at 200 frames per second and conducted a computerized analysis of both the sprint form and jumping ability. Both Wilt and Cags can run! Wilt had a 4.6 second 40-yard dash, vertical leap of 45 inches, 100 yard dash time of 10.9 seconds, ran the 440 yard dash in 49 seconds, and the 880 yard dash in 2 minutes, and won THREE consecutive Big 8 track high jump events with his best at 6 feet 7 inches! I was faster than Wilt in the 100 yard dash!!!
You're forgetting Aaron Judge at 6'7" 280lb and can play all 3 OF positions. There are plenty of big guys who are muscular and highly athletic. Not sure if Jac is one of those guys, but the NBA and NFL are full of them.
I’m not forgetting Judge. He’s played 140 games in the outfield once in his career. He’s played 100 games in the outfield four times in his career. But even so, exceptions don’t prove rules.
way late to the Caglianone party, but he made a play on a ball that is essentially in RF in the 8th of the breakout game. Hope to see him get some reps out there this season because you aren't thinking that is a 250 lb guy when he is running it down
It was a really nice play and I think he can handle it, at least short-term, but it’s important to remember that tracking balls in the air and running them down is only a small part of outfield play. When you don’t have elite speed, getting reads off the bat is almost more important than anything and that’s something you can’t know until he’s out there, which I assume he has been outside of games.
Don’t forget that Alex Gordon was pretty horrible on popups as a third baseman. It was a reason that many thought the outfield conversion would fail. It’s just a very different vantage point.
for sure. Where Cags ends up playing is not on my royals concerns list, but what a bouns if he can handle OF. I am just impressed with the grace he pulled it off with.
Aaron Judge ain’t no little boy and he seems to handle the outfield just fine.
He's one of the very few who does it for 140+ games. I understand the concern, though. It doesn't happen often.
Agreed. Maybe it’s time for another! When the Royals drafted Cags I pictured him in right field immediately. I do agree with you that there is room in the lineup for Jac, Vinny, and Salvy but Q is going to need to be creative.
Sure, it would be great if he takes to it. Just because not many have doesn't mean he can't, but exceptions don't make the rule either.
Agreed
If he drives in more than he let's in he'll be fine
I've completely moved on from Rave and now I'm all in on willing Cross onto the big league roster to start the season.
Am I too fickle? Too starry-eyed?
I don't know, but I'm hoping anyway.
Something that I hadn't even considered is that they are likely to face a bunch of righties in the first 16 games of the year before they get to the Yankees series. I don't know if that means anything and they likely aren't going to make a decision based on that, but he wouldn't be sitting much if he's platooning...
Cross has the physical skills, including bat speed along with David's notes on zone discipline to succeed where Rave doesn't. I think it's likely he'd be overmatched tho. He's got 436 plate appearances above High A and none at AAA? Preston Farr posted on X that Cross has a 74 + mph bat speed this spring.
I listened to Soren lose his mind over the thought of Cags playing the outfield on the podcast (great podcast btw), and I was pretty convinced he was falling into some pretty egregious logical fallacies. His argument is basically that there are hardly any 250lb outfielders who have been successful, therefore Jac won’t be successful. However, first, as you noted, this treats all players 250lb+ the same, which is extremely myopic. Josh Naylor’s body composition is NOTHING like Jac’s. Jac is 6’5’’, 22 years old, and built like a Greek god. Second, there are extremely few 6’5’’ 250 lb baseball players to begin with. So you would not expect there to be hardly any players that size playing at ANY position.
I think taller individuals are typically a little slower and less agile than their vertically challenged counterparts. But this is not universal. LeBron James is 6’8’’ 260 or whatever and can essentially play any position on the court. Magic Johnson was a 6’9’’ point guard. There will always be athletes that defy the physical prototypes for the positions they play.
I’m not saying Jac will be a great outfielder, but to simply say he can’t do it because he’s 250 lbs is a lazy and fallacious argument.
You know, that's a great point about guys who are 6'5", 250. How many have there actually been? I could look it up and I might, but the sample is small to begin with. I also think the important thing is that, unless he's amazing out there, you're not likely asking him to do it for 15 years but rather two or three, which changes the calculations too.
I was about to reply to the first comment above basically this same thing. 20 years ago a guy that was 250 pounds was not very likely built like Cags, or nearly as athletic. But like you said, we likely aren't looking at him to play his entire career in the outfield, but if that's how you get his bat in the lineup, you have to look at it.
Exactly. And for a meaningful sample for comparison you would need 6’5/250 AND a similar body fat percentage and age. My guess is the sample would be so small, making any extrapolations from it would be a fool’s errand.
Very true. There's a difference between there being very few cases and there being very few possibilities for there to be cases.
I think the bigger problem is that he hasn’t apparently even started to play in right field yet. I’m skeptical he can pick it up with no winter training in 2-3 months on the fly. Seems like a real long shot for this season. And I’m worried that if he struggles significantly, that will affect his batting.
I would imagine he just hasn’t done it in a game, but has been working outside of games.
And as for struggling, I honestly think that gets overblown. If he isn’t hitting because of it, they’ll abort.
The weight thing on Jac is interesting. If nothing else, it was a unique take on it that I’d never even really looked at before. I don’t care if he plays the outfield or not. But I do sort of have an issue with the Royals on two fronts with it:
1. Assuming everyone can play the outfield. It appears the Royals are already bailing on India and Massey (two other players that were assumed to be able to play the outfield), and MJ hasn’t really gotten any better. It’s now assumed Garcia can just take centerfield just fine. The assumption that everyone can play the outfield is wrong. But everyone is totally right that this is the time to find out.
2. I do share the thought process that Jac was drafted to mash. So if he is hitting, just keep him at where he normally plays. It’s a good problem to have. But you are telling me you can’t get a legit outfielder back for Vinny? At some point, this organization needs to move players that are blocked. Thinking catcher, thinking however Jac plays out.
It’s a great problem to have, I’m so glad they have it. But why is the answer not as simple as moving a player with this organization? I know JJ can horse trade. We’ve all seen it. Hopefully Jac forces there hand here. And Jensen for that matter.
Assuming everyone can play the outfield and giving it a shot in spring training are two very different things. India and Massey have each played out there in the last few days, so they clearly haven't bailed on that. I thought maybe they had on Massey but he was in left field a couple of days ago. I don't know why anyone has a problem with trying a guy somewhere else in a game that doesn't matter at all.
And as for Jac being drafted to mash, that's fine, but I don't think the Royals even expected that he'd be ready to go as soon as this year. And he still might not be. It's not like they drafted him and didn't know they already had Vinnie Pasquantino. The issue, as I mentioned on the air on Monday, is that they can't know if a guy is close or not until they see him in games and they can't see him in games until there are games to see him in. So you get to spring training and the lineup is built around Pasquantino and Perez (and obviously Witt). If you're contending, you're not trading your number three hitter midseason or before the season. They may have to figure out how to work all the pieces throughout the season and then make a more permanent move after the year when you can make big changes to the team. It all changes if Cags is great out there, which he may or may not be, but even if he's not, it's a temporary solution to a great problem to have. So that's why it's not so simple as to move the guy right now.
Yeah, this is a great conversation to have. I’m not saying it isn’t. I don’t even really think it will be a huge topic this year. Cags is going to still have to prove it in AA and AAA, AND then everyone has to stay healthy. I really think this is more a conversation about next year. I’m not saying move anyone this year. But I do think making Jac your starting right fielder going forward is probably a bad idea. We all love Vinny, but if Jac is as good as he appears (STILL A LONG WAYS TO GO, but another positive), it’s gotta be Vinny moved. Still year or two away I think.
Sure, or you have to just say that Salvy's Royals career is over, which is a different conversation. There is a world where Jac could play right field a handful of times and then split time at first and DH even with Salvy on the roster, but maybe he's the guy who goes.
I think that was the Royals timeline actually. I think Jac is pushing things up on the Royals. But I also think that seeing that Vinny extension I sorta thought was going to happen last year….might not really happen now. Maybe you just let that play out.
Just to point out. And it’s not apples to apples. Vinny is 245 lbs playing first base and has yet to play over 131 games after three years now. It’s just an interesting comp is all.
Adalberto Mondesi was 200 lbs. and never played more than 102 games. But for whatever it's worth, Vinnie played 145 games in 2022. He just wasn't called up until late June.
A Vernon Wells shout. Beautiful.
See a few other great comments re: the 250-pound threshold with Jac. Thought I'd add that 250 pounds in the steroid era is much different than 250 pounds at basically any other time, and there's probably a huge peak on the bell curve from 1995-2005 where a majority of 250+ pound players in the history of the game were active during that stretch. He's just an outlier (or potentially one) and I don't know that there's going to be a great comp. (All the same, great research on the topic!)
Good point on the steroid era. The only 250 lb. outfielders to play 140+ games outside of the streroid era are Aaron Judge in 2017 and Frank Howard in 1967. Otherwise it's a bunch of Carlos Lee, a few Adam Dunns and one Miguel Cabrera.
Zooming out from the "outfield only" lens, it's probably important to note, too, that humans are getting heavier, particularly athletes. We think lovingly of Babe Ruth as a lumbering behemoth slugger -- dude was (listed at) 215 pounds. Half of the Royals 40-man roster is that weight or more.
The more I think on it, comparing a modern athlete to anyone pre-2010 size-wise (arbitrary endpoint, but in my opinion that seems around the time teams and players started emphasizing nutrition, optimizing offseason training, etc.) might be irrelevant. Judge is probably the only real comp we have.
That's true too. People just weren't this big before fairly recently.
The Royals are interesting in that they are possibly going to have some big dudes. Salvy 255 (no way, it’s higher), Vinney listed at 245. Jac 250, Renfroe 230.
I do think the weight thing is more this though. Yes, people are bigger now. But if your are weighing 250 in the outfield you have to hit. Because the defense it typically a liability. Just look the Royals, Vinnie doesn’t grade out great at first, Renfoe isn’t great in the outfield. To be that big in the outfield, you have to hit or it gets hard to justify.
That isn’t even really directed at Jac, it’s more there are so few because yes, guys weren’t as big, but also you have to mash, etc. Just a lot of variables that have to line up right to even get the opportunities.
Good info on Cross. He will get the first chance being a first round draft pick. Which, if he’s earning it is fine. A little bummed honestly to hear that he’s not viewed as a starter yet. And maybe I should have already known but that’s still the hope for a first rounder. Sounds like it’s Cags and Jensen at the top, and then with Mitchell hurt… a pretty decent group of what I’d call depth guys. Not great yet, but a little progress. Hoping for faster but we’ll see.
The entire Jac conversation almost starts and ends with Cross honestly. If you could draft and develop an actual outfielder….such as the #9 pick that you took as an outfielder. We wouldn’t need to throw catchers, and first basemen in these spots to begin with.
Do you really think a good scout is going to completely alter his or her outlook on a player from less than 20 spring plate appearances. The takeaway is that he looks a lot more like the guy he was a couple of years ago.
No, but that’s what I wanted to hear David! I just think the Royals missed on the evaluation of him if scouts are up to a “not a starter but a platoon bat”. Just tells me he has fallen VERY far in scouts eyes. Which, I probably knew, and I’m sure you’ve written about before. Just been a bit.
MLB Pipeline had him at 10. So did Baseball America. Fangraphs had him at 15, but I can't figure out their rankings anyway. And a strong-side platoon bat is very different than a short-side platoon bat. Plus, he even said he looks like he might be able to handle more lefties than he thought before the spring.
This is not a stupid organization. They've changed so much over the last couple of years since JJ took over. They've earned some credit.
The Jac talk has been fun. But last week showed we are one inside fastball away from wrecking this season to a certain player.
Sit BWJ every game until game 1 please. Lets just get to the season now!
I ran track at Emporia State University as a sprinter and was the founding women’s track coach at Indiana University and coached five All-America athletes including three sprinters. I have seen Jac run out an infield single and he can sprint enough to play RF at the K. His arm is off the scales. I am not concerned about the weight. I talked once with Bill Easton who coached Wilt Chamberlain at KU in track. He told me that Wilt could have been an Olympic decathlon champion if he concentrated on track and Wilt had to be at least 240 pounds!!!
I think it’s fair to say that weight distribution matters. Wilt was listed at 249 lbs. but he was 7’1”. Cags is 250 but he’s 6’5”. Not sure there’s much to be taken from one in comparison to the other.
I saw Cags in the AZ Fall League beat out an infield single. My best in the 100 yard dash at ESU was 10.1 seconds. I coached three All-American sprinters and one of these athletes made the semi-finals of the 400 meter hurdles at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympic Games. I also have a doctorate in physiology and exercise physiology from Indiana along with several courses in kinesiology. I can watch a person run and know whether they have some sprinting ability. As a class project in kinesiology, I filmed a 26 feet 10 inches long jump at 200 frames per second and conducted a computerized analysis of both the sprint form and jumping ability. Both Wilt and Cags can run! Wilt had a 4.6 second 40-yard dash, vertical leap of 45 inches, 100 yard dash time of 10.9 seconds, ran the 440 yard dash in 49 seconds, and the 880 yard dash in 2 minutes, and won THREE consecutive Big 8 track high jump events with his best at 6 feet 7 inches! I was faster than Wilt in the 100 yard dash!!!
You're forgetting Aaron Judge at 6'7" 280lb and can play all 3 OF positions. There are plenty of big guys who are muscular and highly athletic. Not sure if Jac is one of those guys, but the NBA and NFL are full of them.
I’m not forgetting Judge. He’s played 140 games in the outfield once in his career. He’s played 100 games in the outfield four times in his career. But even so, exceptions don’t prove rules.
way late to the Caglianone party, but he made a play on a ball that is essentially in RF in the 8th of the breakout game. Hope to see him get some reps out there this season because you aren't thinking that is a 250 lb guy when he is running it down
https://www.mlb.com/royals/video/royals-vs-d-backs-spring-breakout-highlights
It was a really nice play and I think he can handle it, at least short-term, but it’s important to remember that tracking balls in the air and running them down is only a small part of outfield play. When you don’t have elite speed, getting reads off the bat is almost more important than anything and that’s something you can’t know until he’s out there, which I assume he has been outside of games.
Don’t forget that Alex Gordon was pretty horrible on popups as a third baseman. It was a reason that many thought the outfield conversion would fail. It’s just a very different vantage point.
for sure. Where Cags ends up playing is not on my royals concerns list, but what a bouns if he can handle OF. I am just impressed with the grace he pulled it off with.