Crown Jewels: Defensive Improvements, Bullpen Construction and An Opener

We have reached the month pitchers and catchers report in. That's something.

I know not everyone who is a Royals fan is a Chiefs fan, but I think there’s a pretty good amount of overlap and for those of us who do overlap, the Chiefs in the Super Bowl is great to take us almost directly to pitchers and catchers reporting. We are just 12 days away from Royals ps & cs taking the field for stretching that gets way more attention than stretching ever should. More importantly, we are just three weeks away from the first game of the spring, a battle with the Rangers from across the lot. There’s always something special to me about that first spring game. You can almost hear the cobwebs getting knocked off from everyone involved with the game and even though spring games start to get a little old fairly quickly, those first few are always super fun to listen to.

I would imagine the Royals roster today is pretty much what it’ll look like when they take the field in Surprise three Fridays from now. What was a quiet offseason actually ended up a pretty typical one in terms of moves. Looking at the top-15 in plate appearances from the previous season, the Royals are poised to start spring with 10 on the roster this year. In 2022, they started with 11. In 2021, it was nine. In 2020, it was 10. In 2019, it was seven, which is pretty low. So all in all, kind of a normal turnover year, which actually started at the deadline in 2022. I think that’s important to remember in terms of changes. They started making those changes in June and July, so even though it might have been a bit light in December and January (until the last few days of the month), it was a long process to overhaul the roster some.

And before you ask, no, I don’t know what the holdup on the Zack Greinke signing is. I speculated on Twitter that maybe they’re working on a trade to open up the 40-man spot, but it could be as simple as they haven’t finished the physical yet for any number of reasons that likely are irrelevant.

Edit to Add: It turns out, it’s now officially done. No trade, just an Anthony Misiewicz DFA.

Defensive Issues

The metrics were not in agreement on the Royals defense in 2022. They were third to last in defensive runs saved, 16th in outs above average and 8th in DEF, which is a Fangraphs statistic that measures a player’s defensive value relative to league average. I think it’d be very easy to say that DRS is wrong and DEF is right or that we should look at OAA because it’s in the middle. I can tell you the Royals are a bit of an outlier in that the only team with a positive DEF and a negative DRS was the Royals. The only team with a positive OAA and a negative DRS was the Royals. So I think it’s at least fair to wonder if DRS inherently didn’t judge them well. But even so, it’s a metric we both have and should trust as much as you can trust a defensive stat.

With regard to DRS, the Royals sat at -40 as a team. Michael A. Taylor alone was +19 and he was traded. Emmanuel Rivers was +4 with the Royals. He’s gone. Carlos Santana was +2. He’s also no longer on the team. But if you take those out, you’re left with a team total of -65. No, that’s not entirely fair because there are some players who contributed to the negative number who are also gone, but I really wanted to highlight the Taylor deal doesn’t help the defensive issues even though they were right to move him. Okay, anyway, we know the numbers, but what is the reality of this defense?

Behind the plate, they’ll rate poorly because Salvador Perez rates poorly. The man can throw and the man can block. The man cannot frame and while I hate that a skill designed to influence an incorrect call matters, it does. I think it’ll be interesting to see both how the roster shakes out and how the new catching staff views him behind the plate. And actually, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of an impact Paul Hoover has on him too. That’s one of the very quiet storylines of spring that we’ll talk about soon.

On the infield, I can tell you unequivocally that the Royals know they need to get better. Vinnie Pasquantino is not Nick Pratto at first, but he’s not bad, though he was at -2 DRS. Where the concern comes from the Royals is the rest of the infield. I think the lack of playing in short right field will help Michael Massey at second quite a bit, but the Royals still are a bit concerned. He won a minor league Gold Glove at second, but I think they’re just a bit worried that he’s slightly below average. The left side, though, is where the questions are going to really come. Was Bobby Witt Jr.’s debut at shortstop an outlier or will he have to move? The team loves Maikel Garcia, who is a plus shortstop. Does it make sense to just start him at shortstop and move Witt to third, especially with the third baseman likely to be Hunter Dozier?

The practical answer is yes, from a team on the field standpoint. The long-term answer is a little more foggy. My opinion is that Witt wants to play shortstop and the team, in a year they likely can’t win enough, wants to maximize his happiness because they want to be able to sign him long-term. If they give him a shot for however many months and he struggles again, there can’t be an argument. If he is better, well, there are worse things than having multiple shortstops on the infield and if Garcia slides to third to keep the franchise cornerstone happy, so be it. I believe that Witt is a big reason why they hired Jose Alguacil to coach infield. That’ll sort itself out. I didn’t even mention Nicky Lopez, who can help at all three non-first base positions, so unless he’s traded (which he might be), that’ll be nice. I guess that’s why they signed Matt Duffy and Johan Camargo, just in case.

And in the outfield, I’m not worried about Drew Waters or Kyle Isbel and I’ve heard great things about Tyler Gentry and Gavin Cross when they get to the big leagues. Can MJ Melendez transition to becoming even an average corner outfielder? That’s the big question right now. I think he can and I thought he looked better later in the season. I’ve said this before, but remember that he had never played outfield before 2022. Either way, the defense has to get better than it was in 2023 and they have to do it having traded away their best defender.

Pitching Depth

I know I’ve written a lot about this in the last couple of weeks with all the acquisitions the Royals have made. They’ve directly added, in my opinion, three big league relief options and indirectly added more competition for that bullpen with the signing of Greinke because it should push a starter into that role. I’ve gone through the actual names a bunch with all these signings, but I kind of want to break down what they’ve actually got with these pitchers. First, let’s look at the guys who are able to go bullpen to rotation and back.

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Kris Bubic - Soft tossing lefty who can throw harder, but relies on fastball/changeup/curve (for now) and he’s better against righties but with bad command

Max Castillo - Changeup artist from the right side who has a slider that looks good at times with a fastball that could be better but hasn’t shown a ton

Jonathan Heasley - Maybe the most intriguing with a move to the bullpen because he feels like someone who could dominate with his fastball if he keeps it up in the zone and just lets it eat but his curve was his best pitch in 2022

Brad Keller - We know about Keller and we saw that he struggled in the bullpen in 2022 but has been successful there a long time ago with a fastball/slider combination that feels like it’d work but maybe he’s the biggest beneficiary of the new coaching staff

Jackson Kowar - I don’t know what to make of him, but if he can make his fastball even remotely decent, the changeup will carry him and he should probably start but the stuff is tantalizing in a short-inning role

Daniel Lynch - I think he’s the least likely to succeed in the bullpen but I’m not sure why I believe that; maybe it’s because he has three pitches that I think can be very successful as a starter but he’s the power lefty with the power slider and a good changeup (when it’s good)

Ryan Yarbrough - Leads with his cutter but has a good curve and a changeup that wasn’t great in 2022 but has been before and provides a different look from anyone

Angel Zerpa - Could be a power lefty in the bullpen or a bit less of a power guy as a starter but has a changeup to go with a mid-90s fastball that is interesting in a rotation but maybe even more interesting in a bullpen role

There are some similarities among certain pitchers, but this is a pretty diverse group. Now let’s take a look at the guy who could go up and down who weren’t listed above because everyone but Keller and Yarbrough could go up and down between the big leagues and the minors.

Taylor Clarke - Likely isn’t getting optioned but had success in 2022 throwing more sliders and fewer fastballs even though the fastball has some juice behind it along with a changeup that got hit a little more than expected

Jose Cuas - He’s got the funky angle and the movement and also got mauled by lefties while handling righties quite well so he could be a guy who is very dependent on the team’s opponent if he’s on the big league roster or not at any given time

Carlos Hernandez - Yes, he’s a reliever exclusively, I’m 99.9 percent sure of it and he could be good, but he has to figure out his pitch mix; while he doesn’t show an option now on a lot of sites, the Royals are confident he’ll get a fourth issued and I think that puts him in the minors as depth unless he shows he can succeed in that role in Omaha

Richard Lovelady - He’s a slider-first lefty with a fastball that was actually very successful in 2021 before he got hurt; my concern here is that he’s too similar to some of the other guys they have, so unless they trade someone like Amir Garrett, he may lose a numbers game

Anthony Misiewicz - As surprisingly effective as he was for the Royals, he’s definitely on the short end now after the acquisitions, but he’s nice depth to have if they choose to keep him when the roster crunch hits at the end of spring

Yep, Misiewicz was on the short end after an acquisition.

Collin Snider - I think he could be the DFA for the Greinke deal if there isn’t a trade, but if he isn’t, a ground ball specialist who throws hard is at least a different look from Cuas, though they have similar platoon splits

Josh Staumont - I’m going to get to more of him in a second but the bullpen is better if Staumont is good and they don’t have anyone who can throw 100+ with the curve that he has…if he can both do it and control it

Josh Taylor - Health is an issue here, so we’ll see about that, but if he’s healthy, he’s a slider-first lefty with a fastball that has shown signs and does get some whiffs which sounds familiar *cough Richard Lovelady cough*

If Nick Wittgren makes the club, he’s out of options. The same is true of Mike Mayers. But the eight above could potentially be getting familiar with I-29 as the season progresses and the Royals try to massage their pitching staff based on matchups, which is kind of interesting. I just wanted to show what kind of diversity they have on the staff. As I’ve written, they’re deep but the real question is how good they can be and how good the new coaching staff can make them.

But Will They Use an Opener?

I’m going to keep this short because I was super long-winded on the first two spots today. I actually think the diversity of arms on the staff above shows that an opener could be extremely interesting. Imagine a game started by Staumont and then picked up by Yarbrough. I’m not sure you could have two more different pitchers. Let’s say they’re facing the Twins, who start things with Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and probably Jorge Polanco but then feature some lefties farther down their lineup. Staumont to get the top and then you have to either force them into decisions or let a lefty go through a lefty-heavy bottom six is very interesting to me.

My understanding is that this coaching staff is obviously very open to the idea of opening for certain guys and with certain guys as well but they don’t want to do it just do it. One of the reasons someone like Ryne Stanek was put in that role in Tampa Bay was because it was good for him and they happened to have a guy like Yarbrough who it made sense with. I’ve heard Staumont compared to Stanek in that regard so I’d be on the lookout for that. I also think Hernandez could be an interesting opener candidate since he has experience starting but may need a little bit less structure in order to be forced to stay focused.

Either way, I’m very interested to see how this particular coaching staff, which should be adept at getting the best out of players, utilizes this interesting and diverse set of pitchers. If you’re an optimist, and that calendar pointing to spring training so close helps many, you can see a world where a group of coaches who know how to get the most out of a pitching staff could use this numbers game to make a competent or better staff. I’m very curious to see how it all shakes out.