It's actually kind of amazing how massive the complex is and how far each team's side is from the other. There'll be interactions, but they'll have to be intentional.
Good stuff, David! Can't believe it's this close, and am actually starting to get a little excited. Funny thought occurred to me...I sometimes miss the first inning or two due to meetings, activities, whatnot. So as I get in the Jeep to come home I tune in the game. I often have to wait a bit to hear the score, and try to pick up clues as to how the game is going by other things. I will have to pay better attention earlier in the day as to who the "starter" is if we use openers. Hearing a reliever pitching in the 3rd won't necessarily mean we are getting blown out. : )
Glad to finally see the light in Surprise! The pitching logjam will be interesting to see with the new coaching staff. If they can make a 15%improvement in skill set over last year, it will be a pleasant surprise! I did like Bobby at third, but time will tell. I know if he had a very good season, they need to get him signed or else he will price himself right out of town.
By chance, did you read an article that said Houston was trying to put together a deal for Salvy? Don't think that would fly with the fans and the club wanting a new stadium. Salvy being traded would almost force the club in getting Bobby signed to be the new gave of the club.
On the subject of a Witt extension, I know they've talked and from my understanding, they're in different places right now. And it makes sense. Witt wants to be paid for what he can be, but he didn't have the season that Julio Rodriguez did. There's no sense in signing for anything less than a superstar salary right now and the Royals need to see more from him before they offer him that money, so the talks just aren't going to get anywhere, but they're certainly in touch, so that's a good thing.
I haven't seen anything real about Salvy and specifically Houston, but I'm sure there'll be more and more rumors with Melendez already up, Luca Tresh relatively close and Carter Jensen not far behind. I'd caution people to not look at Melendez as a long-term piece due to his agency and think he's more likely to be moved to fill a hole than to be the catcher for 10 years after Salvy. That said, if Salvy does get traded, there will be a lot of upset people, but if it's a good baseball trade and leads to winning, they'll be back.
My view is that they need to extend Witt while they can still afford to do so. Whether we like it or not, that window is closing a little bit more each and every day.
They're not getting a discount on him. Witt wants Rodriguez money and the Royals aren't ready to give it to him. There's a deal to be made at some point, but it's not happening this offseason.
He hasn't proved anything yet. He's fast and can hit a few homeruns. He strikes out a lot and doesnt walk. His obp is terrible. I know hes young but hes nowhere near superstar status right now and has to at least look like hes going to be one before they pay him.
Partial agreement here. Like you, I'd like to see a much better OBP out of him but I can't agree that "he hasn't proved anything yet." By the time he reaches "superstar status" the Royals will be nowhere near able to pay him what he can command elsewhere.
I think you're also discounting his otherworldly speed and quickness, which are vitally important attributes at shortstop. I think there's a good chance he will improve defensively. He just needs to calm down and make the "routine plays" more consistently. Many youngsters his age fight that battle during their rookie seasons. And with the new rules this year I expect his stolen base total to improve dramatically. Plus at his age we can reasonably expect his SLG% to improve over the next several years. I suspect that increasing HR totals are in his near future.
There are of course no guarantees but I continue to believe that their best move is to extend him while they can still afford to do so.
I am so ready for spring training to get going. I am ready for spring. We had a lot of ice here in southern Missouri, and I live in the country. I haven't been out of my house since Sunday, so yeah, I'm ready for spring. My crazy prediction is that Comargo wins the 3rd base job this spring. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he have a couple of good years with Miami a few years back. Great piece David, and go Chiefs, win a second title next Sunday!!!!!!
Camargo was good with the Braves in 2017 and 2018. He's hit .219/.271/.348 since then. He was excellent in AAA in 2021 but hit .213/.311/.298 in AAA last year. I think he makes the team, but if he wins the job, I don't think it's a good thing.
I suspect that the use of robo-umps will obviate at least some of Salvy's pitch-framing deficiencies.
I've been fascinated by the idea of an opener for years. Now for the first time I have at least a modicum of hope that the Royals have a manager and coaches who can figure out how to use one properly, in direct contrast to the former coaching staff. No guarantees but it at least feels possible to me now.
It's more likely that rather than full on automated strike zones, it'll be a challenge system, which will help some but won't be available on every single pitch, so we'll see how that shakes out.
Great content as always, but even after reading it, as someone who writes a newsletter called Powder Blue Nostalgia, all I can think about today is that the Royals are bringing back full Powder Blues on Opening Day. I know it doesn't mean much in the big picture and the thrill will pass quickly, but it's one of the more momentous days in PBN's barely month-long history. Very excited.
I'm pretty pumped for the all powder blues. I asked around when it was rumored and got it confirmed, but I was sworn to secrecy, so I'm excited the secret is out!
A few comments as I ride the ferry from Victoria to Saturna Island this morning… on the matter of pitch framing….
I don’t know how the metric is weighted visa vis blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners stealing or keeping guys close at first base… but in my ‘Fan’s mind’, throwing the ball to first or second and blocking balls can make an immediate impact on the game, whenever they are done successfully as Salvy seems to do. Pitch framing is really about presenting the glove to pitcher and trying to steal a call from the umpire. Much less significant in terms of importance.
With all this in mind I would take Salvy over all the other catchers I watch around the league, even the vaunted JT Realmuto. When we had the master defensive catcher, and I assume pitch framer, Martin Maldonado with the Royals, who came with great accolades, I could see that this guy was decent defensively, but a very poor hitter… and he made Salvy look like Ben Johnson on the base paths.
That said, I did take the time to concentrate on Martin Maldonado’s pitch framing skills in the playoffs. I noted he would seem to jerk the ball on every pitch he received. Now, if I am an umpire, this is gonna irritate me immensely and cause me to not give him the close calls. Now not to say that pitch framing is not important… (your post was long so, so is mine today!)…so I will now digress….
As a young Royals fan growing up in Canada in the 1970’s I had to suffer through listening to all the accolades that were heaped onto Gary Carter as he made his way through his early career with the now defunct Expos. It was not that I disliked Carter, it was more that I did not like all the media attention the Expos got in those days and my older bro was a huge Expos fan … BUT when Gary Crater came back to the Expos in the twilight of his career, I was able to watch him work behind the plate with a more mature eye. I observed he was an absolute master of pitch framing, before it became “pitch framing”, I think. He would site behind the plate and gently move his whole body left or right, keeping the glove stationary with his body, depending on where the pitch came in, inside or outside…he was brilliant at it. It was like he was on a oiled rail back there…. sliding left and right. There was absolutely no jerking action in his receiving the ball like I noticed with Maldonado…
So while pitch framing is important and can be done very well like a Hall of Framer like Carter (RIP) ….I think in the context of a catcher’s defensive assessment…it is minor.
I think that’s all I will say for now except that I am still irritated that Picollo traded Emmanuel Rivera for that clown who took it upon himself to show up the umpires via a standoff with that other Gopher Ball Throwing left-hander from the Mariners. Not that Rivera was the next coming of George Brett, although I really liked him, but because we got nothing for him….So Gald Mr. Sherman cleaned house!
It's certainly much easier to see the impact of a throw than it is a strike, but think about a small difference of 0-1 vs. 1-0. After an 0-1 count, Royals pitchers allowed a .241/.288/.361 line. After a 1-0 count, Royals pitchers allowed a .292/.412/.471 line. That's a 234 point difference in OPS allowed. It wasn't as noticeable, but that first pitch was the difference between that hitter being 2022 Yuli Gurriel and 2022 Yandy Diaz. That's not nothing. And that's just the first pitch. No team had more balls called on pitches in the shadow zone that were just outside the zone than the Royals. It makes a difference.
That said, with the new rules, I will say that catcher throwing is going to be more important than it has been in recent years, so I'll be curious how the metrics approach that. Still, pitch framing, while it may seem trivial most of the time, is pretty important.
I would have liked to see them add an OF bat and a solid starter or two. With the added wild card there is an opportunity to get into the playoffs this year with this team. They decided to go young, which is not entirely disappointing. I am interested to see what they have as well. It is good to have spring entering the conversation.
They did add two starters and Ryan Yarbrough who will likely start a fair amount. I would be upset if they took away any additional starter innings for young guys to try to figure things out with the new coaching staff.
I know their plan is different than mine, but I would have non-tendered Keller and not signed Lyles and signed maybe Bassitt or Manaea. I am intrigued by Yarborough. I think he is a quality signing. And, as strictly a fan, I am happy to have Greinke back. He is still fun to watch, hopefully he still has a few tricks left. And I would have gotten Conforto. I think that provides a chance at the wildcard. But, again, their plan is different than mine, and it is not my money.
I'd have loved Bassitt, but you have to remember guys have to want to come to KC also. It's a tough sell right now. I wouldn't have signed Lyles either for sure, though.
Witt is a better third baseman that shortstop. At short he rushes everything and erither overthrown or misses the target completely. Putting him at third will slow him down a bit. Besides. They need a third baseman with his arm. Offensively he plays out more like a third baseman. If you want a better defensive team you put Lopez back at short and Witt at third. That move will make up for what ever negative issues Massey has if any at all
I think staumont is done. He's lost about 6 mph off his fastball but still throw 95 96 but he's not effective unless he can pop that 100 to 102 fastball occasionally. If Lovelady shows he's back get rid of garrett. The guy has an attitude and comes in and walks a lot of guys. He's not what we need. They need more dominant relievers
Here's the problem I have with extentions especially with young players. When you give a lot of money to a player I think you remove incentives to push to become a top player. Look at most contract extentions. Most end up as bad contracts. Look at dozier and Alex Gordon. Gordon was never the same after his 4 year extension. Dozier has never come close to his 19 season. The royals extended yordono ventura after his rookie year. I know he only had one season before he died but he show signs of coming unglued. This happens all over baseball. The royal have shown no signs of improvement for a few years now. What if they extend him and even if he becomes a top player the team still loses 90 plus games a year. They're out a lot of money for nothing. Make him earn his money and make sure the team is going in the right direction. It might cost them more but they'll at least know what they have and if the team improves they'll get more fans at the games and revenues go up. This team keeps making the same mistakes over and over again. most rookies come in their second year and crash. I don't think he will. The royal are going to have a team payroll probably over 90 mil. That terrible for a team this bad. It's because they keep throwing money around to the wrong players
Spring training might be interesting with DM across the aisle with the Rangers.
It's actually kind of amazing how massive the complex is and how far each team's side is from the other. There'll be interactions, but they'll have to be intentional.
Good stuff, David! Can't believe it's this close, and am actually starting to get a little excited. Funny thought occurred to me...I sometimes miss the first inning or two due to meetings, activities, whatnot. So as I get in the Jeep to come home I tune in the game. I often have to wait a bit to hear the score, and try to pick up clues as to how the game is going by other things. I will have to pay better attention earlier in the day as to who the "starter" is if we use openers. Hearing a reliever pitching in the 3rd won't necessarily mean we are getting blown out. : )
Ha, that's a good point. It might actually be intentional!
Glad to finally see the light in Surprise! The pitching logjam will be interesting to see with the new coaching staff. If they can make a 15%improvement in skill set over last year, it will be a pleasant surprise! I did like Bobby at third, but time will tell. I know if he had a very good season, they need to get him signed or else he will price himself right out of town.
By chance, did you read an article that said Houston was trying to put together a deal for Salvy? Don't think that would fly with the fans and the club wanting a new stadium. Salvy being traded would almost force the club in getting Bobby signed to be the new gave of the club.
On the subject of a Witt extension, I know they've talked and from my understanding, they're in different places right now. And it makes sense. Witt wants to be paid for what he can be, but he didn't have the season that Julio Rodriguez did. There's no sense in signing for anything less than a superstar salary right now and the Royals need to see more from him before they offer him that money, so the talks just aren't going to get anywhere, but they're certainly in touch, so that's a good thing.
I haven't seen anything real about Salvy and specifically Houston, but I'm sure there'll be more and more rumors with Melendez already up, Luca Tresh relatively close and Carter Jensen not far behind. I'd caution people to not look at Melendez as a long-term piece due to his agency and think he's more likely to be moved to fill a hole than to be the catcher for 10 years after Salvy. That said, if Salvy does get traded, there will be a lot of upset people, but if it's a good baseball trade and leads to winning, they'll be back.
My view is that they need to extend Witt while they can still afford to do so. Whether we like it or not, that window is closing a little bit more each and every day.
They're not getting a discount on him. Witt wants Rodriguez money and the Royals aren't ready to give it to him. There's a deal to be made at some point, but it's not happening this offseason.
He hasn't proved anything yet. He's fast and can hit a few homeruns. He strikes out a lot and doesnt walk. His obp is terrible. I know hes young but hes nowhere near superstar status right now and has to at least look like hes going to be one before they pay him.
Partial agreement here. Like you, I'd like to see a much better OBP out of him but I can't agree that "he hasn't proved anything yet." By the time he reaches "superstar status" the Royals will be nowhere near able to pay him what he can command elsewhere.
I think you're also discounting his otherworldly speed and quickness, which are vitally important attributes at shortstop. I think there's a good chance he will improve defensively. He just needs to calm down and make the "routine plays" more consistently. Many youngsters his age fight that battle during their rookie seasons. And with the new rules this year I expect his stolen base total to improve dramatically. Plus at his age we can reasonably expect his SLG% to improve over the next several years. I suspect that increasing HR totals are in his near future.
There are of course no guarantees but I continue to believe that their best move is to extend him while they can still afford to do so.
I am so ready for spring training to get going. I am ready for spring. We had a lot of ice here in southern Missouri, and I live in the country. I haven't been out of my house since Sunday, so yeah, I'm ready for spring. My crazy prediction is that Comargo wins the 3rd base job this spring. Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't he have a couple of good years with Miami a few years back. Great piece David, and go Chiefs, win a second title next Sunday!!!!!!
Camargo was good with the Braves in 2017 and 2018. He's hit .219/.271/.348 since then. He was excellent in AAA in 2021 but hit .213/.311/.298 in AAA last year. I think he makes the team, but if he wins the job, I don't think it's a good thing.
Good analysis David. If nothing else, this season should be interesting. Just don't need to hold on to blockers like Dozier.
They'd love to move Dozier and my guess is that he's off the team by August 1 one way or another.
I suspect that the use of robo-umps will obviate at least some of Salvy's pitch-framing deficiencies.
I've been fascinated by the idea of an opener for years. Now for the first time I have at least a modicum of hope that the Royals have a manager and coaches who can figure out how to use one properly, in direct contrast to the former coaching staff. No guarantees but it at least feels possible to me now.
It's more likely that rather than full on automated strike zones, it'll be a challenge system, which will help some but won't be available on every single pitch, so we'll see how that shakes out.
% chance KC is still in the playoff race in Sept.?
I'll be a homer and say 51%.
I guess it depends on how you define playoff race, but I'm guessing it's a lot lower than that. Maybe I'll find that optimism as spring gets going.
Great job David! I can’t wait for opening day.
Thanks Tony, me either!
Great content as always, but even after reading it, as someone who writes a newsletter called Powder Blue Nostalgia, all I can think about today is that the Royals are bringing back full Powder Blues on Opening Day. I know it doesn't mean much in the big picture and the thrill will pass quickly, but it's one of the more momentous days in PBN's barely month-long history. Very excited.
I'm pretty pumped for the all powder blues. I asked around when it was rumored and got it confirmed, but I was sworn to secrecy, so I'm excited the secret is out!
HI David,
A few comments as I ride the ferry from Victoria to Saturna Island this morning… on the matter of pitch framing….
I don’t know how the metric is weighted visa vis blocking balls in the dirt and throwing out runners stealing or keeping guys close at first base… but in my ‘Fan’s mind’, throwing the ball to first or second and blocking balls can make an immediate impact on the game, whenever they are done successfully as Salvy seems to do. Pitch framing is really about presenting the glove to pitcher and trying to steal a call from the umpire. Much less significant in terms of importance.
With all this in mind I would take Salvy over all the other catchers I watch around the league, even the vaunted JT Realmuto. When we had the master defensive catcher, and I assume pitch framer, Martin Maldonado with the Royals, who came with great accolades, I could see that this guy was decent defensively, but a very poor hitter… and he made Salvy look like Ben Johnson on the base paths.
That said, I did take the time to concentrate on Martin Maldonado’s pitch framing skills in the playoffs. I noted he would seem to jerk the ball on every pitch he received. Now, if I am an umpire, this is gonna irritate me immensely and cause me to not give him the close calls. Now not to say that pitch framing is not important… (your post was long so, so is mine today!)…so I will now digress….
As a young Royals fan growing up in Canada in the 1970’s I had to suffer through listening to all the accolades that were heaped onto Gary Carter as he made his way through his early career with the now defunct Expos. It was not that I disliked Carter, it was more that I did not like all the media attention the Expos got in those days and my older bro was a huge Expos fan … BUT when Gary Crater came back to the Expos in the twilight of his career, I was able to watch him work behind the plate with a more mature eye. I observed he was an absolute master of pitch framing, before it became “pitch framing”, I think. He would site behind the plate and gently move his whole body left or right, keeping the glove stationary with his body, depending on where the pitch came in, inside or outside…he was brilliant at it. It was like he was on a oiled rail back there…. sliding left and right. There was absolutely no jerking action in his receiving the ball like I noticed with Maldonado…
So while pitch framing is important and can be done very well like a Hall of Framer like Carter (RIP) ….I think in the context of a catcher’s defensive assessment…it is minor.
I think that’s all I will say for now except that I am still irritated that Picollo traded Emmanuel Rivera for that clown who took it upon himself to show up the umpires via a standoff with that other Gopher Ball Throwing left-hander from the Mariners. Not that Rivera was the next coming of George Brett, although I really liked him, but because we got nothing for him….So Gald Mr. Sherman cleaned house!
Later
Greg
It's certainly much easier to see the impact of a throw than it is a strike, but think about a small difference of 0-1 vs. 1-0. After an 0-1 count, Royals pitchers allowed a .241/.288/.361 line. After a 1-0 count, Royals pitchers allowed a .292/.412/.471 line. That's a 234 point difference in OPS allowed. It wasn't as noticeable, but that first pitch was the difference between that hitter being 2022 Yuli Gurriel and 2022 Yandy Diaz. That's not nothing. And that's just the first pitch. No team had more balls called on pitches in the shadow zone that were just outside the zone than the Royals. It makes a difference.
That said, with the new rules, I will say that catcher throwing is going to be more important than it has been in recent years, so I'll be curious how the metrics approach that. Still, pitch framing, while it may seem trivial most of the time, is pretty important.
Oh it's important alright...but Salvy isn't throwing the first pitch!
As Tom Seaver said to the question (or so my bro says)..."Whats your most effective pitch?" His answer..."Strike one!"
I would have liked to see them add an OF bat and a solid starter or two. With the added wild card there is an opportunity to get into the playoffs this year with this team. They decided to go young, which is not entirely disappointing. I am interested to see what they have as well. It is good to have spring entering the conversation.
They did add two starters and Ryan Yarbrough who will likely start a fair amount. I would be upset if they took away any additional starter innings for young guys to try to figure things out with the new coaching staff.
I know their plan is different than mine, but I would have non-tendered Keller and not signed Lyles and signed maybe Bassitt or Manaea. I am intrigued by Yarborough. I think he is a quality signing. And, as strictly a fan, I am happy to have Greinke back. He is still fun to watch, hopefully he still has a few tricks left. And I would have gotten Conforto. I think that provides a chance at the wildcard. But, again, their plan is different than mine, and it is not my money.
I'd have loved Bassitt, but you have to remember guys have to want to come to KC also. It's a tough sell right now. I wouldn't have signed Lyles either for sure, though.
Dick Lovelady is a real fan-favorite!
Witt is a better third baseman that shortstop. At short he rushes everything and erither overthrown or misses the target completely. Putting him at third will slow him down a bit. Besides. They need a third baseman with his arm. Offensively he plays out more like a third baseman. If you want a better defensive team you put Lopez back at short and Witt at third. That move will make up for what ever negative issues Massey has if any at all
I think staumont is done. He's lost about 6 mph off his fastball but still throw 95 96 but he's not effective unless he can pop that 100 to 102 fastball occasionally. If Lovelady shows he's back get rid of garrett. The guy has an attitude and comes in and walks a lot of guys. He's not what we need. They need more dominant relievers
Here's the problem I have with extentions especially with young players. When you give a lot of money to a player I think you remove incentives to push to become a top player. Look at most contract extentions. Most end up as bad contracts. Look at dozier and Alex Gordon. Gordon was never the same after his 4 year extension. Dozier has never come close to his 19 season. The royals extended yordono ventura after his rookie year. I know he only had one season before he died but he show signs of coming unglued. This happens all over baseball. The royal have shown no signs of improvement for a few years now. What if they extend him and even if he becomes a top player the team still loses 90 plus games a year. They're out a lot of money for nothing. Make him earn his money and make sure the team is going in the right direction. It might cost them more but they'll at least know what they have and if the team improves they'll get more fans at the games and revenues go up. This team keeps making the same mistakes over and over again. most rookies come in their second year and crash. I don't think he will. The royal are going to have a team payroll probably over 90 mil. That terrible for a team this bad. It's because they keep throwing money around to the wrong players
Thank you. Finally. Someone that agrees with me. Lol